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Friday, September 22, 2023

BRK Continues To Sell HPQ — September 23, 2023

Locator: 45559INV.

 Continues to sell HPQ. This reads like an old story, but it’s new. Link here. Direct to Barron’s.

“Same” story about a week ago.

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X

On another note, is it just me or has “X” improved lately? A small monthly fee will not be a show-stopper for me. LOL.

“Trump History” is incredibly good but with Joe Biden one could use his exact stories, quotes, and anecdotes. I would start with his blue-collar truck-driving days.

Week 38: September 18, 2023 -- September 24, 2023

Locator: 45558TOPSTORY.

Top story:

  • Apple iPhone 15 first day availability -- opens to rave reviews;
  • US Fed does not raise rates but spooks major indices with "promise" for one more rate hike before the end of 2023
    • higher rates not only "for longer," but perhaps for "forever"
    • investors across the board now skittish; narratives in question;

Top international non-energy story:

  • “Peace talks” — normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel — on-going
  • Putin has clearly ceded southern Asia area of influence to the Chinese;
  • Russian-Ukraine war continues
    • Putin's HQ Black Sea Fleet destroyed, missile attack
    • Biden promises Zelenskyy ATACKMS

Top international energy story:

  • coal shipments to China hitting all-time high;
  • folks starting to ask: what if “renewable narrative” fails?
    • $100-oil

Top national non-energy story:

  • UAW expands nationwide strike; one full week complete
    • not agood sign for families walking the picket lines that union leadership had to expand the strike
    • Ford starting to capitulate or a head fake / agreeing to some UAW demands (?)

Top national energy story:

  • WTI: closes above $90 for the week
  • OKE takeover of MMP (Magellan) complete; largest merger in quite some time
    • most analysts, it appears, think it was a great deal for all affected

Focus on frackingmost recent edition.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

  • ND governor still in the national presidential GOP campaign -- but Trump grows stronger in the polls

Top North Dakota energy story:


Geoff Simon's quick connects:

Bakken economy:

  • holding in there -- but active rigs running about 32

Commentary:

Three New Permits; Three Permits Renewed; Five DUCs Reported As Completed -- September 22, 2023

Locator: 45557B.

Active rigs: 32.

WTI: $90.03.

Three new permits, #40221 - #40223, inclusive:

  • Operators: CLR (2); Slawson
  • Fields: Haystack Butte (Dunn); Pleasant Hill (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has a permit for a Thorp Federal well, SWNW 21-148-97, 
      • to be sited 1807 FNL and 303 FWL; and, 
    • CLR has a permit for a Marshall well, SWSE 7-145-96; 
      • to be sited 360 FSL and 2348 FEL;
    • Slawson has a permit for a Kahuna well, lot 3, section 6-149-99; 
      • to be sited 320 FNL and 2174 FWL

Three permits renewed:

  • SOGC (Sinclair) (2): two Harris Federal permits, Lone Butte,
  • Liberty Resources: a Keller permit, Burke County;

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37640, 260, Slawson, Genesis Federal 1SLH,
  • 37641, 868, Slawson, Genekat Federal 4-13-12TFH,
  • 37642, 764, Slawson, Genekat Federal 5-13-12TFH,
  • 38843, 178, Slawson, Phatkat Federal 7-19-7TFH,
  • 38844, 342, Slawson, Vixen Federal 7-19-30TFH,

Biden To Send Zelenskyy ATACMS — September 22, 2023

Locator: 45556UKRAINE.

Link here.

From the link: 
For months, Ukraine has asked for the Army Tactical Missile System, known as ATACMS, which would give Kyiv the ability to strike targets from as far away as about 180 miles, hitting supply lines, railways, and command and control locations behind the Russian front lines. [Later: the Black Sea Fleet HQ is no longer on the target list. See below.]

Shortest air distance:

  • 523 miles: Ukraine border to Moscow.
  • 149 miles: Kherson to Sevastopol.
HQ Black Sea Fleet, Sevastopol, completely destroyed, “today.”

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Lost Wallets

For the record, I had nothing to with these wallets. Besides, I was still in middle school at the time.
Hopefully they won’t/don’t find a body there.

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Texas Rubicon

Not ours, but too nice a photo not to be taken.
 

No-Brainer: Amazon Prime Video Ad-Free For An Extra $2.99 / Month — September 22, 2023

Locator: 45555B.

Link here,

Over at social media, cue the tape “I won’t be watching Prime Video any more” in 3 … 2 …. 1.

On another note: this alone is worth a small monthly fee. 😂😂😂😂😂. 

And, this, of course.

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The Trinity River
Ft Worth, Texas

The view from a paddle board:

That Didn’t Take Long — UAW Shuts Down GM And Stellantis “Parts Distribution” Nationwide — September 22, 2023

Locator: 45554STRIKE.

Link here.

You can’t fix cars without parts.

Don’t know how this affects OEM.

Barron’s says UAW noted “real progress” with Ford but didn’t provide any specifics.

Same story says Americans support 40% pay increase for established workers and 60% pay increase for recent hires.

Okay.

Americans are generous to a fault.

Tickers:

  • GM down slightly today;
  • F up slightly today.

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A Quiet Afternoon

Three-year-old twins each in his own world.

I Think I've Had Just About Enough Of 3M -- September 22, 2023

Locator: 455533M.

What? What did you say? I can't hear you. From all those years wearing 3M ear plugs on the tarmac overseas.

Ear plugs lawsuit may be coming to an end, though there are reports that the judge is not ready to sign off on the agreement, but that may be an old story.

And then "forever chemicals." PFAS. Link here.

And now, outright treason? Something about "aid and comfort" to the enemy? Or was it fraud? Or, perhaps just one of those things.

Link here.

Who's running this ship? 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Liar, Liar, Pants On Fire -- Columnist -- September 22, 2023

Locator: 45541LIAR.

I'm shocked. Shocked.

  • hamburger and fries at airport: $12
  • bar tab: $66
  • columnist complains about $78-restaurant bill

And that's why the UAW needs a 40% increase in pay. And 60% for recent new-hires. This gets tedious.

LOL.

And It Still Won't Be Enough -- September 22, 2023

Locator: 45540COAL.

Link here.

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A Musical Interlude

Link here.

Russia Losing Influence In Its "Geographic" Sphere -- September 22, 2023

Locator: 45539RUSSIA.

September 22, 2023, updates, some of this has been previously posted.



Russia:


Armenian separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh agreed Wednesday to disarm and discuss reintegration with Azerbaijan following a swift but deadly assault by Azerbaijani forces, a capitulation that signals the end of decades of ethnic-Armenian rule in the enclave and the rapid decline of Russian influence in the former Soviet Union territories.
The terms of the cease-fire lay groundwork that could bring to a close the autonomous rule by the population of Nagorno-Karabakh, which was won from Baku in a bloody yearslong war after the fall of the Soviet empire.

Peter Zeihan: Russia on a precipice? 

The Book Page -- A Holiday / Birthday Gift Suggestion -- September 22, 2023

Locator: 45538BOOKS. 

I know almost nothing about horse-racing. I had a bit of first-hand experience through a distant relative years ago, but in the big scheme of things, I know nothing about the sport.

Our middle granddaughter gave me this book for my birthday last month. I'm finally getting around to reading it.

Lexington: The Extraordinary Life And Turbulent Timmes of America's Legendary Racehorse, Kim Wwickens, c. 2023

Highly recommended for anyone who has a passing interest in horse racing but knows nothing about the sport.

Like all books like this, the bigger story -- the history of horse racing -- is carried on the back of a lesser story, the story of a most-remarkable horse, and perhaps, even more so, the most remarkable man who discovered Darley, renamed him, and the rest is history.

Notes will be added here.

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Orienteering

The three-year-old twins have become quite excited about planning their nature walks. Click to enlarge the top map to see the details of the proposed journey.


 

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A Musical Interlude

This is now Levi's favorite CD:


I never knew Mozart was into Twinkle, Twinkle Little Star. Speaking of which, the "morning star" today was huge, advancing ahead of the sun as quickly as it could before being overtaken.

Holy Mackerel: My Favorite Chart -- Another Huge Spike -- From Where Is All This Money Coming? September 20, 2023

Locator: 45537INV.

Updates

September 22, 2023: reasons to move out of the stock market:

  • much higher for much longer -- JPow said as much; maybe forever;
  • nation-wide automobile manufacturing strike on the horizon;
  • another rise in the Fed rate in two months;
  • student loans coming due -- and no one wants to hear about your poor choices;
  • government shutdown inevitable; GOP has already gone "on vacation," though they call it a "hiatus";
  • WTI: $100 on the horizon; gasoline already averages more than $6 / gallon in California; I remember writing about $5-gasoline years ago and a reader said I was nuts;
  • tech is a bubble
  • oil is a utility
  • green marches on
  • hurricane season to get worse, much worse 
  • asteroid to hit US -- seriously -- headed for Utah

September 22, 2023: And it looks like it is not going to quit any time soon. I remember when I first started this series, "my favorite chart," a reader suggested I knew nothing about investing, which is probably true, but it's interesting how this chart has become pretty interesting in its own right. 

Anyway, from a a different reader, this link.

Original Post

From where is all this money coming? Some would say they are printing it. My hunch, three sources:

  • from under American mattresses;
  • Europe;
  • China.

Goldilocks economy.

My favorite chart.

Link here.


From earlier:

Link at twitter.

UAW -- 40% Pay Increase -- 32-Hour Work Week -- "Open-End" Right-To-Strike -- Lafffable --- September 22, 2023

Locator: 45536ECON. 

Link here.

The four demands:

1. Pay increase of 40%. Laughable.

2. Reinstating COLA. With a 40% increase in pay, COLA not needed. Ever.

3. Ending the two-tier system for pay and benefits. UAW is not serious on this one. Recent "new hires" would be geetting a 60% pay increase.

4. Job security for EV transition. Want to be able to strike when facilities shutdown or close due to the EV transition. Laughable. Open-ended "right-to-strike."

The UAW has four agenda items, but that's only to give them something to talk about. A 40% pay raise is all they really want. And that's laughable. I do think if the UAW fails to gain public support in this round of contract talks it will go back to the demand for a 40% raise in prices. "No one" in America gets a 40% pay raise -- except for CEOs. But seriously, their opening gambit: a 40% pay increase.

The goal to end the two-tier system for pay and benefits? This would give new hires a 60% pay increase. Maybe more. Fact-check me on that.

Also laughable and no longer discussed: 32-hour work week with pay for forty hours. They will still work 40+ hours and everything over 32 hours would be "overtime." 

Link here.

With regard to inflation and that 40% pay increase to cover future inflation:

CPI: "we're there." 3.2% UAW asking for 40% pay raise to cover future inflation. We'll talk about this later, along with three other non-starters. Link here.

Next: noon today -- strike action to be expanded.

Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Morning -- September 22, 2023

Locator: 45535B. 

CPI: "we're there." 3.2% UAW asking for 40% pay raise to cover future inflation. We'll talk about this later, along with three other non-starters.Link here.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $90.81. Thank you, Mr Putin.

Sunday, September 24, 2023: 109 for the month; 311 for the quarter, 556 for the year
39134, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 4-33-28H,
39133, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 3-33-28H,
38902, conf, CLR, Astro SWD,

Saturday, September 23, 2023: 106 for the month; 308 for the quarter, 553 for the year
39622, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Ruby 5 20-17-158N-100W-MBH-LLW,
37264, conf, Whiting, Wilson 31-15-3H,

Friday, September 22, 2023: 104 for the month; 306 for the quarter, 551 for the year
39064, conf, Hess, TI-Hanson-LE-158-94-0706HH-1,
37263, conf, Whiting, Wilson Federal 31-15-2H,

California joins the UK, Brazil in its net-zero emissions goal. See below.

RBN Energy: California pauses shift from natural gas amid concerns about power shortages. Archived.

The U.S.’s effort to prioritize low-carbon energy entails some bumps and bruises along the way, an indication that the energy industry’s trilemma of availability, reliability and affordability can conflict with today’s economic realities and environmental priorities, even in a state like California with abundant financial and clean-energy resources and a commitment to decarbonization. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the state’s lofty goals to phase out fossil fuels, why it has been forced to put its transition away from natural gas and nuclear power on hold, and some of the biggest challenges ahead for the Golden State.

Massive Lines Develop Around The World For iPhone 15 — Numerous Sources — September 22, 2023

Locator: 10010APPLEGOESBOOM.

Gene Munster: link here.

Bloomberg: pre-orders and long lines suggest strong demand. Link here.

Why Apple, not Android, won the smart-phone war. Link here.

Profits, earnings. Link here.

The iPhone 15 may just be the most successful iPhone ever. 

Link here. The site is "click-bait" but the headline is not. 

Link here

Top story: New York Times. The Times gets it. The “fool” doesn’t

More links to follow.

Here’s one.

Google iPhone 15 sales.

Remember: with ability to order on-line, surprising to see lines. My hunch: on-line orders are pushing wait times out to the holidays. Folks aren’t willing to wait. [Later: see below. Hunch confirmed.]

Flocking to stores in China.  CNBC.

Many retailers sold out in minutes in China. Link here.

Prices increased in China, India. No increase in the US. CNBC.

Long lines in Taiwan. Link here.

High-end most in demand. No surprise there. No price increase on Pro. Top chip. Problem with linking source. Will provide link if source fixes problem.

Top-end favored; cheaper versions shunned. CNBC.

EU regulators require some/many/most folks to buy $29-adaptor from Apple for new phone. CNBC. Not included in the box. 

Plus they will buy protective case.

And Apple Care.

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Laptop To Go With The New iPhone 15

Link here.

This really is quite incredible.