Locator: 45657ND.
Thursday, September 14, 2023
NFL TNF -- Flashback -- One Year Ago -- September 14, 2023
Locator: 45656NFL.
Tonight:
- NFL: Minnesota Vikings vs Philadelphia Eagles
- good game
- see note one year ago re: TNF --
From the blog, September 16, 2022:
Streaming:
- absolutely incredible
- Apple ecosystem
- can seamlessly move from iPad to huge desktop Mac monitor to large, flat-screen Philips monitor (the latter with Firestick TV)
NFL: Thursday Night Football -- link here:
Although the game will be available on television in the home markets of any team that plays on Thursdays, everyone else will have to watch the game on Prime (This means that tonight's game will be on over-the-air television in both Los Angeles and Kansas City).
- Amazon, TNF: an-eleven-year deal
- announcers: two of the biggest names -- Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit
- incredible TNF schedule this year
- we talked about this before
- mixing metaphors: Amazon hit a home run with NFL TNF
- Bezos (Amazon) sitting with Goodell (NFL commissioner) at game.
- Seamlessly watched game from iPad to Philips monitor (Amazon Prime, Firestick TV).
ARM Update -- Daily Activity Report From The Bakken -- September 14, 2023
Locator: 45655TECH.
Locator: 45655B.
ARM, link here:
- IPO priced at $51
- closed at $63.59; a 25% gain from the priced IPO
- market valuation: $60 billion, at close
- (this is a bubble)
- ARM's p/e >110
- comparable to Nvidia's valuation which trades at 108 x earnings
- but Nvidia has a 170% growth forecast for the current quarter
- Arm
- focused on royalty growth
- providing products to its customer that cost and do more (vaporware?)
- to best of my knowledge, manufactures no hardware
- designs chips? Yes, focused on CPUs, inferior to GPUs in most respects, in current generative AI environment
- "Pros": not buying -- CNBC
- Arm is not AI
- AI runs on Arm, but to repeat, Arm is not AI
- Arm has been around forever -- the foundation of much of the current global computing
- pros don't see growth
- many questioned why Arm even went public; public explanation by CEO was not credible
- CEO's answer was "not credible"
- one analyst did suggest ARM need to be part of any "tech" portfolio
- Jim Cramer
- company designs chips
- great company, but:
- China: a complication
- SoftBank still owns 90% of the company -- how much more might it sell?
- difficult to justify the opening IPO price
- valued at 110 x earnings
- probable "real" valuation? $40 - $60 billion
- would have accepted mid-$50 price
- not much upside left
- then, Cramer says: buy a small position -- how did he come up with that? Typical Cramer.
- largest IPO since Rivian (a disaster) for those who bought in the beginning.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
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Back to the Bakken
Director's Cut: released today.
Active rigs: 32.
WTI: $90.58. Market reaction: lukewarm at best. Market reaction suggests:
- investors have all the energy they want; treating "oil and natural gas" as utilities; taking a "watch and see" approach;
- traders: not convinced WTI has much more room to run; Europe's natural gas storage is full.
Two new permits, #440203 - #40204, inclusive:
- Operators: Petro-Hunt, Hess
- Fields: Little Knife (Billings); Robinson Lake (Mountrail)
- Comments:
- Hess has a permit for a EN-Weyrauch well, SESW 8-154-93;
- to be sited 339 FSL and 2030 FWL;
- Petro-Hunt has a permit for another Zabolotny well, SESW 9-144-98,
- to be sited 410 FSL and 1945 FWL
Four permits renewed:
- XTO: four GBU Wayne permits, Williams County;
Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
- 29284, 1,899, Slawson, Vixen Federal 5-19-30TFH,
- 38619, 3,432, MRO, Wilma 41-16TFH,
- 38620, 2,821, MRO, Greenshields 11-15HH,
- 38974, no ip, BR, Saddle Butte 44-9MBH-R, North Fork, see below
- 39193, 1,400, CLR, Allen 6-17H,
- 39194, 1,465, CLR, Allen 7-17H,
Revised:
- 38974, no ip, BR, Saddle Butte 44-9MBH-R, North Fork,
- March 15, 2019:
- original: 230 FSL and 967 FEL
- May 24, 2022
- "the "R" added in a new application
- new: 230 FSL and 1147 FEL
- 2560-acre spacing: 4/9/16/21-149-96
Wells of interest near #38619 and #38620 (run south, I believe);
- 18253, 344, MRO, State Ralph 31-16H, Bailey, t1/10; cum 519K 7/23; huge halo effect;
- 16964, 315, MRO, Voigt 11-15H, Bailey, t1/10; cum 569K 7/23; no huge halo effect;
July, 2023, Data -- Director's Cut
Locator: 45653CUT.
Link here. Not viewable on Firefox.
Director's Cuts are tracked here.
Disclaimer applies.
DUCs and wells off-line for operational reasons tracked here.
Producing wells: 18,179 -- new all-time high (July, 2023)
- new all-time high, this month, July, 2023: 18,179 producing wells (preliminary)
- the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources reported the state had 18,101 producing wells in June, 2023.
- gas capture, statewide: 96%
Highlights.
- active rigs
- today: 33
- 37: August, 2023
- 37: July, 2023
- 37: June, 2023
- expected to rise to the mid-forties with gradual increase over next two years;
- crude oil production:
- July, 2023: 1,180,611 (+1%)
- June, 2023: 1,166,604 bopd
- May, 2023: 1,135,009 bopd
- crude price:
- today: $82.50
- July, 2023: $70.35.
- June, 2023: $64.18
- May, 2023; $65.82
- natural gas:
- July, 2023: 3,289,759 MCF/day (+1%)
- June, 2023: 3,247,513 MCF/day
- May, 2023: 3,156,883 MCF/day
- wells permitted:
- August: 87
- July: 70
- June: 85
- May: 63
- April: 89
- DUCs:
- July: 419
- June: 433
- May: 459
- April: 458
- inactive:
- July: 1,665
- June: 1,693
- May: 1,779
- April, 1,899
- completed:
- August: 91 (preliminary)
- July: 83
- June: 85
- May: 138
- April: 51
- producing:
- July, 2023: 18,179 (new all-time high)
- June, 2023: 18,101 (new all-time high)
- May, 2023: 17,9292 (new all-time high as of May, 2023)
- April: 17,768
Off The Net For Awhile -- Dow Up Over 350 Points -- US Recession Will Have To Wait Anothher Day -- Hunter Indicted -- September 14, 2023
Locator: 45652GDP.
Locator: 45652POLITICS.
Biden is out? More and more indications that "Big DEM" has its claws out and is beginning the effort to remove Biden / Kamala from the 2024 campaign. Now, the latest (breading on CNBC, 12:35 p.m., Thursday, September 14, 2023): Hunter is indicted: guns and drugs. DC is so political that the movers and shakers in "Big DEM" could have stopped the indictment had they wanted.
GDPNow: link here. Most recent estimate, 3Q23. Takes significant turn from the estimate one week ago, from 5.6 to 4.9.
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Tax Loss Harvesting
Link here. Great "reason" for "personalized direct investing":
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Connectors
USB-A, USB-C, Lightning.
ARM Opens 10% Higher -- Opens At $56.10 -- Priced At $51 -- September 14, 2023
Locator: 45651INV.
CNBC panel: none want in (on the ARM IPO; most pick NVDA first).
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For The Archives
For The Archives
The twins in Portland, age three:
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Clearing Out The In-Box -- September 14, 2023
Locator: 45650B.
Berkshire selling HP: link here.
Romney: in The Atlantic, November, 2023:
Obama's DACA scheme: ruled "illegal" again. But Obama certainly knew how to "play the game." Biden learned a lot from Obama. Link here.
US incomes fall for third straight year, link here:
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Phrase of the Day
Another phrase coined by William Shakespeare.
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Pop Quiz: Covid Vaccine
Who was the second person to receive the original BioNTech - Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine back when it was first released? Name? Country? Age?
Hint: his page.
The Fourth Indusrial Revolution Plays On -- September 14, 2023
Locator: 45649TECH.
Chips, semiconductor: link here.
- Home page for tech: link here.
- The cloud: link here.
- Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.
- Spatial computing: link here.
- Generative AI: link here.
Three Tom's Hardware links:
Nvidia's CEO's management style:
Update -- Longer Drilling In The Permian -- September 14, 2023
Locator: 45648B.
From yesterday, link here. The "expert" on drilling unconventional plays, seems not to understand the basics. This was the twitter link to which I was referrring, embedded in the screenshot below.
Today, Bloomberg reports:
- one out of five new wells in the Permian this year will be 3 miles or longer.
Goldilocks Economy Continues — Dow Is Up 250 Points -- Mid-Morning -- WTI At $90 -- September 14, 2023
Locator: 45647INV.
Theme on CNBC today: RESILIENT.
- resilient economy
- market much better than expected (CNBC panel doesn't understand it; can't explain it)
- jobless claims down -- unexpected
- market handling $90-oil just fine
- market ignoring China's problems
It's official: WTI broke through $90 earlier; now in a narrow range, around $89.90.
Jobs report today:
AAPL: the more I look at Apple's most recent announcement, the more excited I get. I'm seeing the same thing among knowledgeable tech analysts.
Retail sales suprise: link here.
ECB hikes rates, 10th consecutive time. From report:
Rate raises have now hauled the central bank’s main deposit facility from -0.5% in June 2022 to a record 4%. A key reason for the hike Thursday appeared to be upward revisions in newly-published staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which see inflation averaging at 5.6% this year, 3.2% next year and 2.1% in 2025. However, it also indicated that further hikes may be off the table for now.
Europe’s biggest economy has shown continued deterioration, with business sentiment plummeting and services now declining along with manufacturing. Germany is forecast to be the only major European economy to contract this year — though the wider picture is also downbeat, with euro zone business activity declining in August to its lowest level since November 2020.
PPI: up 0.7% vs 0.04% expected, August 2023. But "core" inflation in check. Link here.
Lodging: link here.
Two “Chinese” companies at risk, have nice opening today: AAPL; TSLA.
WTI Takes A Big Jump Overnight -- Trending Toward $90 -- September 14, 2023
Locator: 45645B.
Suriname - Guyana update: link here and here to Charles Kennedy.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $89.64. CNBC says WTI hit $90 — first time since November, 2022. Will JPow raise rates now?
Friday, September 15, 2023: 88 for the month; 290 for the quarter, 535 for the year
39623, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Matillda May 6 29-32-158N-100W-MBH-LL;
28831, conf, Petro-Hunt, Arsenal Federal 149-1002-17A-20-2H,
39066, conf, Hess, TI-Hanson-158-94-0706H-2,
39029, conf, Liberty Resources, Overdorf 158-96-1-12-4MBH,
28829, conf, Petro-Hunt, Arsenal Federal 149-102-17A-20-3H,
RBN Energy: diversified E&P reserve growth driven by acquisitions after tepid organic additions.
While the weather-related headlines might still scream “summer” in some places — from stifling heat to powerful hurricanes to downpour-induced mud bogs at Burning Man in the Nevada desert — we’ve actually turned the corner into meteorological fall. Oil and gas prices have moved up from their Q2 2023 lows and supply issues, particularly for oil, are the chief concerns as the heating season approaches. Long-term production by the Diversified E&P peer group, whose production streams are weighted 40%-60% for gas and oil, respectively, are a major factor in U.S. supply. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze the crucial issue of reserve replacement by the major diversified U.S. producers.