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Monday, August 28, 2023

Grayson Mill Timber Creek Wells -- Alexander Oil Field -- Halo Effect -- August 28, 2023

Locator: 45498B.

We'll look at these tomorrow.

The wells:

  • 38929, drl/A, Grayson Mill, Timber Creek 13-24 6H, t--; cum 46K after first month;
  • 38928, drl/A, Grayson Mill, Timber Creek 13-24 5H, t--; cum 178K 6/23;3
  • 38927, drl/A, Grayson Mill, Timber Creek 13-24 3H, t--; cum 159K 6/23;
  • 38926, drl/A, Grayson Mill, Timber Creek 13-24 3H, t--; cum 144K 6/23;
  • 23302, 1,602, Grayson Mill, Timber Creek 13-24 1TFH, t7/13; cum 205K 6/23;
  • 23301, 3,042, Grayson Mill, Timber Creek 13-24 2H, t10/14; cum 319K 6/23; huge halo effect.

The new wells:

  • 38926:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-202330201582037932158658053801827617
BAKKEN5-20233130650305254406758426494818734
BAKKEN4-20233030699306395156243325395443609
BAKKEN3-20232823837239545189028549230585311
BAKKEN2-20232738803384236568854786476346930
BAKKEN1-20230000000
  • 38927:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-202330152221542426523494142854820738
BAKKEN5-20233123886238943356251152432947673
BAKKEN4-20233033834337414253455807509374649
BAKKEN3-20232425465255584771733153267766168
BAKKEN2-20232842677426346767747356412295935
BAKKEN1-2023718011176732111520300672913393
  • 38928:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-202330184511865333356526183039922083
BAKKEN5-20233126179261124007053045448488006
BAKKEN4-20233030194301564613446571425063880
BAKKEN3-20232025883259523837433661271876262
BAKKEN2-20232838455388356863448679423806101
BAKKEN1-202316386573791661444510261691433664
BAKKEN12-20220000000

  • 38929:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-202325437054335346579606243502425443
BAKKEN5-20230000000
BAKKEN4-202300240000
BAKKEN3-2023320792055280427472219511

MRO With Eleven New Permits In Four Bears; Area With Halo Effect -- August 28, 2023

Locator: 45497B. 

These wells updated here, March 24, 2024.

 Wells of interest:

  • 19251, 406 (no typo), MRO, Quale USA 31-20H, t2/11; cum 357K 6/21;
  • 36393, 5,281, MRO, Yesenko USA 11-21TFH, t9/19; cum 407K 6/21;
  • 36394, 3,822, MRO, Yellow Bull USA 14-16H, t9/19; cum 321K 6/21;

Note: jump in production, #19251, above, in 2019, production:

BAKKEN5-20203154555526185966765625556
BAKKEN4-20203070357024255189877780631
BAKKEN3-2020318952884635101145196511113
BAKKEN2-202020604559272941720756461117
BAKKEN1-202011045032031
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-20190000000
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-20193831581593070
BAKKEN5-2019311020921202143901188
BAKKEN4-2019309989842031380231113
BAKKEN3-20193110501089216151801265

New permits for oil and gas wells in this same section, to be sited SWNW in section 20-152-93, running from west to east under the river/lake, daily activity report, August 28, 2023.

  • 40160, loc, MRO, Susie USA 14-20H. Four Bears,
  • 40161, loc, MRO, Robertson USA 14-20TFH. Four Bears,
  • 40162, loc, MRO, artar USA 13-20H. Four Bears,
  • 40163, loc, MRO, Emma USA 13-20TFH. Four Bears,
  • 40164, loc, MRO, Murray USA 13-20H. Four Bears,
  • 40165, loc, MRO, Stout USA 13-20TFH. Four Bears,
  • 40166, loc, MRO, Harrison USA 12-20H. Four Bears,
  • 40167, loc, MRO, Vondall USA 12-20TFH. Four Bears,
  • 40168, loc, MRO, Andie USA 12-20H. Four Bears,
  • 40169, loc, MRO, Lawson USA 12-20TFH. Four Bears,
  • 40170, loc, MRO, Star USA 11-20H. Four Bears, 

Maps:

 

Generative Artificial Intelligence -- August 28, 2023

Locator: 45496GENAI. 

Overview posts.

Updates

September 10, 2023: the fourth industrial revolution.

August 29, 2023: Nvidia and Google will partner on generative AI.

Original Post

Before we get started, "everybody" seems to be talking about "AI," or artificial intelligence." In fact, it's not a two-word phrase but rather a three-word phrase about which we are talking. The first word is the most important of the three and it is seldom used. The full three-word phrase is "generative artificial intelligence."

What do quantum mechanics and generative artificial intelligence have in common.

No one understands either.

Richard Feynman, from the NY Times, September 7, 2019:

“I think I can safely say that nobody really understands quantum mechanics,” observed the physicist and Nobel laureate Richard Feynman. That’s not surprising, as far as it goes. Science makes progress by confronting our lack of understanding, and quantum mechanics has a reputation for being especially mysterious.

What’s surprising is that physicists seem to be O.K. with not understanding the most important theory they have.

Quantum mechanics, assembled gradually by a group of brilliant minds over the first decades of the 20th century, is an incredibly successful theory. We need it to account for how atoms decay, why stars shine, how transistors and lasers work and, for that matter, why tables and chairs are solid rather than immediately collapsing onto the floor.

It seems I've read a gazillion articles on "AI" and it's immediately obvious that the writers have no idea what they are writing about when they're writing about the "application" that Sam Altman, Elon Musk, Greg Brockman, et al, developed. That's not a "ding" on the writers. It's simply that incredible what Sam Altman and the others did.

This blog is IN PROGRESS and I may or may not ever finish it. We'll see. But if you want to skip ahead and see where I'm headed, google generative linguistics Chomsky Bertrand Russell Turing.

Technically, all you really need to do is google generative linguistics Chomsky.

Where do we start? We start with the definition off generative. Below, the second definition:

Now it gets fun.

The linguists.

Norm Chomsky: wiki.

Bertrand Russell: wiki.

 


 


 

MRO With Eleven New Permits -- August 28, 2023

Locator: 45497B. 

Active rigs: 33.

WTI: $80.03

Eleven new oil and gas permits, #40160 - #40170, inclusive:

  • Operators: MRO
  • Fields: Four Bears (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • MRO has permits for eleven wells in the Four Bears oil field, SWNW 20-152-93; 
      • to be sited 2221 FNL and between 397 FWL and 797 FWL: Susie USA, Robertson USA, Tartar USA, Emma USA, Murray USA, Stout USA, Harrison USA, Vondall USA, Andie USA, Lawson USA and Star USA

One permit renewed:

  • 39218, Petro-Hunt, USA 146-97-29A-32-4H, Little Knife;

The New RSV Vaccine(s) -- Scientific American -- August 28, 2023

Locator: 45495MEDICINE.

An incredibly good article, easy-to-read, and a tie-in with Covid.

Research began by a post-doc fellowship at the National Institutes of Health Vaccine Research Center, 2008 -- a decade before Covid-19 -- but led to the Covid-19 vaccines.

That researcher is now a molecular biologist at the University of Texas at Austin, Jason McLellan,

Two Big Pharma companies ran with the data were GSK and Pfizer. Each has come up with a vaccine, and each has been approved by the FDA.

GSK: Arexvy, already being advertised on televisionn.

Pfizer: Abrysvo, also already being advertised on television.

My wife got one of the two last week. Significant pain and swelling in arm following the shot, although she got the seasonal flu shot in the same arm at the same time. The latter has never been a problem for her so we assume the "reaction" was due to the RSV -- but at least we know it "took."



********************************
The Book Club

Oskar Schindler: The Untold Account of His Life, Wartime Activities, and the True Story Behind The List, David M. Crowe, c. 2004.

Notes.

Barron's Today -- August 28, 2023

Locator: 45494INV.

 Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Barron's this week:

Monster Energy: best stock in past 25 years.

American industry: to become less efficient, but investors are going to make a killing.


Fitness: most important number -- VO2max. And how do you measure that? With an Apple Watch. 



A Goldilocks Economy For Investors -- August 28, 2023

Locator: 45493INV.

NVDA: gains $8/share by the close. AAPL gains $1.60.

AMZN: raises free shipping minimum, link here. So incredibly right on so many levels. Amazon needs to remain focused on their "prime" customers.

 Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

VIX below 16:

Truly a market for:

  • traders
  • stock pickers
  • long-term investors

The Goldilocks economy continues.

Ken Fisher's top 15 picks: link here.

Meanwhile, someone has come up with a list of "Buffett's can't lose" stocks. Link here.


Whispering
:
 

  • no more rate hikes this year, if no major changes in economic data; and,  
  • 50-50 bet on at least one rate cut in late 2024. 

Ken Fisher's list:

Ken Fisher

August, 2023

Billions

15

Visa

$2.00

14

AMEX

$2.00

13

Freeport-McMoRan

$2.20

12

Oracle

$2.21

11

Adobe

$2.40

10

Home Depot

$2.70

9

Salesforce (CRM)

$2.90

8

TSM

$2.99

7

AMD

$3.00

6

ASML

$3.50

5

NVDA

$3.60

4

GOOG

$5.11

3

AMZN

$5.30

2

MSFT

$8.32

1

AAPL

$10.24

Look at an analyst's take on AAPL (on the second page at this link).

Take Apple, Inc. for example. It is the largest stock by market cap, and fairly considered one of the best companies in the world. The company has been extraordinarily successful and improved standards of living everywhere in the process with their ubiquitous products. Along the way, shareholders have been richly rewarded, with shares increasing nearly fourteen-fold over the last ten years while generating an annualized total shareholder return of 31%, including dividends. 

On the back of another big quarter for large cap tech, it is now the first stock to surpass the $3T market cap threshold. This makes its weighting in the ~$37T market cap of the S&P 500, ~8%. It also means this one stock’s market cap is larger than that of the entire ~$2.98T market cap of the Russell 2000 index, the first time in history a single stock has outweighed the Russell 2000 – aside from two brief days in September 2020 when Apple’s market cap then accomplished the same.

Let’s have some fun with numbers for a second to put some context around how remarkable this feat is. To frame the implications of such continued success, let’s assume for a minute that Apple is able to duplicate this outstanding accomplishment and produce another decade of performance like the prior one. (Overlook for now how truly impressive this would be from a starting NTM PE multiple of 29x, a $3T market cap and topline revenues that are nearly $400B already).

At this rate of appreciation, the company’s market cap would be greater than the S&P 500’s current market cap. Even if the S&P 500 appreciated at 11% over the next ten years, it would still comprise nearly 40% of the market cap of the index, flying well past the prior record of ~8% it currently holds.

So, despite the company’s attractive attributes of which there are many, an encounter with the law of large numbers seems to be on the horizon.

Moving on from Apple, other megacap tech companies have received similar treatment. The press often refers to these top five companies with some updated version of FANG like FANMA, or the Magnificent 7 or the Megacap 8.

They include Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta and then Tesla, Nvidia and Netflix round out the group.

For the sake of easier comparisons to prior periods, we’ll focus this discussion on the top five holdings. Like Apple, they are wonderful companies, and their valuations convey the investing public recognizes them as such. Today, these five companies’ aggregate weighting in the S&P 500 is ~25%. They currently trade at ~30x NTM PE.

This level of concentration across the top five has only been seen a couple times in market history.

Though it is said history doesn’t repeat itself, it is also said it rhymes. So how might things rhyme this time? As an interesting thought experiment, let’s assume for a minute these companies traded down to the market multiple of 19x, not even the 17x where the S&P 493 trades (i.e. the S&P 500 minus these seven holdings). Should investors sell these stocks down to these multiples, the delta in those trading multiples alone would produce ~$3.7T worth of funds.