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Friday, August 25, 2023

Week 34: August 21, 2023 -- August 27, 2023

Locator: 45475TOP. 

Top story:


Top international non-energy story:

  • Russian-Ukraine war continues but it seems "no one" knows.
  • General Prigozhin killed in plane crash
  • NATO to provide Ukraine with F-16s; 
    • pilots will train in US

Top international energy story:

  • Saudi Arabia says it may extend production cuts — lower for longer

Top national non-energy story:

  • Trump mugshot — one for the books — Georgia

Top national energy story:

Focus on frackingmost recent edition.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

  • ND governor on presidential debate stage

Top North Dakota energy story:

  • Active rigs drop to 33, maybe lower

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Entertainment:

TGIF, Part 3 -- August 25, 2023

Locator: 45474B.  

MO: like clockwork, increases its dividend by more than 4%. Now pays 9%.

Market: I can't recall if I posted this on the blog earlier this morning or if it was in an e-mail note to a reader but while listening to JPow's speech in real-time ("live") I opined that his remarks would result in the market surging today. The market did not react as much and as quickly as I thought it would, but no complaints.

It's hard for me to believe that anyone thought JPow would say anything other than what he said.

Whatever.

At the close:

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Back to the Bakken 

WTI: $79.83.

Active rigs: 32.

Seven new permits, #40152 - #40158, inclusive:

  • Operators: Hess (7); Summit Carbon Storagge
  • Fields: White Earth (Mountrail); wildcat (Oliver)
  • Comments:
    • Summit Carbon Storage has a permit for a TB Leingang well, SENE 18-141-87
    • Hess has permits for three EN-Engebretson wells and three EN-Schroeder wells,  SWSW 11-157-94;
      • to be sited 836 FSL and between 491 FWL and 656 FWL

Four permits renewed:

  • Zavanna: four Hunter permits, Foreman Butte, McKenzie County

Rambling On Investing -- August 25, 2023

Locator: 45473INV. 

The blog has really made a huge impact on my understanding investing.

I flip-flop on many things, as I learn more, but hopefully, most of my changes are evolutionary. The "flip-flops" are revolutionary, and can end up being good or bad. "Evolutionary" for me tends to mean "improving." 

Years ago, a writer was updating Warren Buffett's holdings but instead of giving us a dollar amount of each of his holdings, she -- and I do recall it was a "she" -- provided the number of shares of various companies that Warren Buffett held, and then totaling up all the shares of all the holdings.

I thought was ridiculous. Combining all the shares of all the companies.

I still have trouble with that, but updating his portfolio with number of shares vs dollar worth now makes a lot of sense to me.

If I'm told Buffett had $40 million worth of XYZ in 2020 and then $30 million worth of that same company, XYY, in 2023, I don't know if he sold some XYZ or if XYZ had come down in value, or a combination of the two, or even something else. But knowing that he had four million shares in 2020 and then three million shares in 2023, gives me another data point.

I was thinking about that, now that I have a very, very structured plan buying certain equities twice a month, every month, regardless of what the market is doing, though I do make exceptions, and instead of buying on the scheduled day of Tuesday, for example, I might wait until Thursday, to invest, after certain events have transpired.

But I digress. As I was saying, I was thinking about tracking number of shares, as well as the dollar value, as having some practicality.

I talked about this a few days ago when I talked about "time value of money."

I was happy this morning at the open when I bought shares in some company when they opened lower for the day. An hour later, I was feeling great when that stock had turned green and I thought I had made a brilliant "trade." But then, two hours later, the stock "tanked" they say -- but it bothered me not at all.

I have a 30-year horizon; this company is first-rate and will do very, very well over time. It is unlikely that I will ever sell it and the shares will go to our grandchildren. Of course, I want to do as well as I can with investing, and it would have been nice to have bought the shares an hour later when they were less expensive, but twenty years from now, our grandchildren will be thrilled with the shares they inherit, and won't wonder how much I paid for them. 

But if the shares close in the "green" today, I will be thrilled. And if I remember I will update this note. LOL.

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Southern Living Vs Texas Monthly

We live in Texas and have a granddaughter in college in Nashville, TN.

Over the years, I have become very fond of Tennessee. I will never leave Texas, but I certainly hope to spend more time in Tennessee.

New subscription: Southern Living.

For what I'm interested in, I prefer Southern Living to Texas Monthly.

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Banking

I've written several blogs on banking, etc, and the new technology.

I went to Amazon.com to purchase a subscription to Southern Living. Amazon.com no longer offers subscriptions to that magazine.

However, in the process of subscribing to Southern Living on line, I was offered the opportunity to pay using my Amazon.com account. So, through Amazon.com, I subscribed. Truly amazing. The "stretch" of these companies is amazing. I assume there was an ApplePay option, also, but don't recall. But now, not only does Amazon get a very, very, very small cut of the subscription price I paid, but Amazon.com now knows a bit more about me. 

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Old Photographs

It's a shame we didn't see these photographs until after our parents had died.

I would have loved the backstory: the what, why, when. Sometimes the "who." Always, "who was the photographer?"

Dad was born in 1922, in the farmhouse on the homestead, just a mile or so south of Newell, SD. When he left home at age 20, he never returned home except for very short visits. Photography was very rare at this time; the family was very poor and hiring a photographer would have been a big deal for special occasions.

One assumes:

  • seventeen or eighteen years of age, high school graduation; or, alternatively,
  • twenty years of age, on his way to sign up for the US Coast Guard

Dad served in both theaters during the war, first: many Atlantic Ocean crossings, home-stationed in Boston, pier 13, USS Wakefield. Then, fewer Pacific Ocean crossings but spent more time in Asia than Europe.

From his biography:

In 1942, Dad received a letter in the mail with a return address from the US Selective Service.

Dad did not open the envelope; he did not want to go into the army. Instead he visited the Belle Fourche Navy recruiting station.

Dad was sworn into the United States Coast Guard, November 6, 1942.

 “I went on active duty December 23, 1942, and was assigned to Coast Guard Boot Camp in St. Augustine, Florida. The folks took me to Rapid City, South Dakota. Then I took a road bus to Omaha, Nebraska. I took the train from Omaha on December 23, 1942, and arrived in St. Augustine, Florida on Christmas Day 1942. I stayed in the Ponce de Leon Hotel during boot camp.”

Can you imagine a 20-year-old kid born and raised in Newell, SD, having never left the town or the farm, and then all of a sudden finds himself in St Augustine, FL? And from there to Boston. Wow.

Life is too short, but on the other hand, one can see and do a lot in one's lifetime.

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Recipes


TRICARE Stepping Up Their Game -- August 25, 2023

Locator: 45472TRICARE. 

Absolutely, positively amazing. Color me impressed.

Link here.

This is really, really amazing. Medicare will not cover health care costs if not approved by FDA and/or other government agencies -- there are exceptions.

However, "we" all know that there are a lot of medications, diagnostic tests (see list above), and therapeutic procedures that are beneficial but due to glacial bureaucracy the FDA has simply not approved them. The retired general officers managing Tricare know this and have taken the bull by the horns. 

See above.

I am very, very impressed. 

For those over retired military 65+, Medicare is "first" payer, and then Tricare covers that which Medicare does not pay. The co-pays are practically zero and the one-year deductible is inconsequential. The premiums for both are pricey but those premiums are paid out of benefits so beneficiaries don't actually have to write a check in most cases.

For active duty military and their spouses, of course, Tricare covers "everything."

"Someone" has estimated the lifetime benefit of TRICARE at well over a million dollars. I've heard even higher estimates. TRICARE: birth to death for active duty military families and retirees. 

The actual dollar benefit is less of an issue than is an unexpected hospital bill for $40,000 for routine gallbladder surgery (as an example) or a similar amount for a complicated fracture in one's high school football player. Don't even get me started on a major vehicle accident (although most folks have such medical insurance through their automobile insurance).

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Coverage, Billing, Payments

Absolutely 100% transparent and 100% "seamless."

And that's a fact, Jack.  

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The Book Club

Wow, wow, wow. I am a huge fan of Alison Weir who is probably the #1 historian of British royalty from the 1400s to the 1800s. She has a little cottage industry going.

I picked up 2003 Mary, Queen of Scots and the Murder of Lord Darnley mostly as a lark. 

But as soon as I started reading, this turned out to be so very important. 

Henry VIII's assumption of the throne was a huge, huge, huge deal, but wow, at the time of Henry VIII's death -- a huge change in the relationship among Scotland, England, and France, and a huge change in the Protestant / Catholic relationship in Scotland and England.

This is a keeper.

Notes.

TGIF, Part 2 -- August 25, 2023

Locator: 45481TGIF. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Jobs: yesterday’s report — US economy on fire.

GDPNow: up again, yesterday. US economy on fire. 3Q23 estimate now at 5.9.

WTI: $80.

FED: higher for longer. [Later: The WSJ suggests no more rate increases.]

Rate increase: baked in, September. Last one, though Bullard suggests we could see 6% next year. Regardless, no rate cuts in 2024.

Realtors: could have tough year in 2024.

Home improvement: will do just fine. People will upgrade to sell home and/or upgrade their home now that they're staying in their home longer.

Homes: ATMs.

F: slashes prices on F-150.

GM: shuts Chandler, AZ, information technology facility.

GM: battery partner Ultium will increase workers' pay by up to 25%

GOEV (Canoo): will run out of cash. Burn rate as it ramps up: $80 million / quarter. Cash on hand: $61 million. What, me worry?

NVDA: raises dividend? Need to fact-check. Did announce buyback.

AAPL: prices on existing products slashed by Amazon, others. Clearing shelves for new M3 products to be announced in September. All eyes on new iPhone, new chip.

Shrinkage: another company says shrinkage is growing; this time, Nordstrom. 

When data, facts, info changes, time to pounce! More later.

New RSV vaccine:

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Salmon Dinner

Before soccer practice -- 1.5 hours in 105°F heat.

Perfect Japanese dinner (despite no chop sticks, no soy sauce): salmon, edamame, and rice.

TGIF — August 25, 2023

Locator: 45482B.

WTI: $80.

Sunday, August 27, 2023: 49 for the month; 251 for the quarter, 496 for the year
38996, conf, Hess, TI-Stenbak-LN-158-95-2526H-1, 
37934, conf, BR, Boxer 3A TFH,

Saturday, August 26, 2023: 47 for the month; 249 for the quarter, 494 for the year
37933, conf, BR, Parrish 4A MBH,
35473, conf, Oasis, MHA 8-29-30H-150-92,

Friday, August 25, 2023: 45 for the month; 247 for the quarter, 492 for the year
39447, conf, CLR, Edward 7-23H, 

RBN Energy: carbon capture faces several challenges to wider commercialization.

Given all the recent attention, you’d think the prospects for carbon-capture project development are fantastic. In the U.S., last year’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) featured significant increases in the 45Q tax credit for carbon sequestration, improving the economics for a wide range of carbon-capture projects. 
On a global level, it seems clear that efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reach a net-zero world will continue for a long time to come. Nearly every plan to reach that target includes a significant reliance on carbon capture, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting that 7,600 million metric tons per annum (MMtpa) of carbon dioxide (CO2) — that’s 7.6 gigatons per year — will need to be captured and sequestered by 2050. We are a long way from those levels, given that most estimates put global carbon-capture capacity at a little more than 40 MMtpa today, or less than 1% of what the EIA thinks we’ll need in less than 27 years. 
In today’s RBN blog, we look at the main factors holding back the wider commercialization of carbon-capture initiatives in the U.S.