The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 08/17/23

Thursday, August 17, 2023

How Can We Not Send Him Back To The White House? August 17, 2023

Locator: 45505POL.

You have to have a twitter account, but these are really quite clever.

Link here.

Countries With Insatiable Appetites For Gold, Falling Currencies, One Or Both -- August 17, 2023

Locator: 45504GOLD.

Here:

India. Link here. Ramped up buying.

China. Link here: gold-buying spree continues for seventh-straight month.

Russia.

Turkey. Link here.

A CLR Woodrow Well In West Capa

Locator: 45503B.

The well:

39098, F/A, CLR, Woodrow 6-32H, West Capa, t--; cum 35K 6/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2023	25	35040	34844	34143	59177	56366	2811
BAKKEN	5-2023	4	0	0	823	449	0	449

A "PNC" Well That Has Been Drilled -- WPX Skunk Creek

Locator: 45502B.

The well:

36481, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 12-7-8-16H, Heart Butte, t--; cum 50K 6/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2023	28	16076	16087	28872	13264	13264	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	30	18475	18468	37375	13485	13485	0
BAKKEN	4-2023	16	9205	9186	20310	6500	6500	0
BAKKEN	3-2023	29	5929	5874	10102	3613	3597	16

A BR Rollacleetwood In Elidah

Locator: 45501B.

The well:

30860, loc/A, BR, Rollacleetwood 11-27MBH ULW, Elidah, t--; cum 21K 6/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	21010	21010	9846	41734	40753	952
BAKKEN	5-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2023	22	0	0	8399	716	712	0

Whiting Locken In The Sanish

Locator: 45500B.

The well:

38762, drl/a, Whiting, Locken 12-11TFX, Sanish, t--; cum 75K 6/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2023	11	2391	2417	4957	3607	3557	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	8363	8403	17262	12127	11932	40
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	9566	9490	18361	13099	12860	89
BAKKEN	3-2023	30	10816	10842	22818	13137	12979	11
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	11685	11707	26931	12263	12123	1
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	10230	10128	32521	9746	9588	4
BAKKEN	12-2022	24	7060	7307	30113	7042	6391	545
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	8977	8753	42341	8260	7275	838
BAKKEN	10-2022	28	5810	5493	35251	5361	5209	46

Liberty Resources CA S In Enget Lake

Locator: 45499B.

The well:

38864, A, Liberty Resources, CA S 158-93-21-23-5MBHX, Enget Lake, t--; cum 166K 6/23; F;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	13063	13337	22192	19903	19571	332
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	14649	14622	24540	19041	17486	1555
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	17667	17572	28765	21750	19716	2034
BAKKEN	3-2023	30	20433	20546	34115	24972	24958	14
BAKKEN	2-2023	17	12316	12460	21457	15165	15150	15
BAKKEN	1-2023	25	25232	24828	44936	28118	27484	634
BAKKEN	12-2022	4	1513	1831	2307	1768	1690	78
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	33121	32753	58837	37261	33142	4119
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	27565	26983	101056	33686	33509	177
BAKKEN	9-2022	1	8	0	2190	58	58	0

Grayson Mill Margaret 5-8 XW 1HH, Spring Creek

Locator: 45498B.

The well:

39432, drl/A, Grayson Mill, Margaret 5-8 XW 1H, Spring Creek, t--; cum 74K 6/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	32625	32535	49546	57521	10351	46900
BAKKEN	5-2023	25	23730	23804	46953	38856	2675	35969
BAKKEN	4-2023	13	17838	17634	38442	24971	1477	23385
BAKKEN	3-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

DUCs Recently Reported As Completed -- WPX Palo Pinto Wells In Phaelens Butte -- August 17, 2023

Locator: 45497B.

Phaelens Butte is a small field in the reservation bordered by Spotted Horn to the north, Mandaree to the east, Eagle Nest to the south.

The wells;

38881, 886, WPX, Palo Pinto 20-17-8HZL, Phaelens Butte, t--; cum 151K 6/23; stimulated 2/9/23; Three Fork First Bench,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	26258	26329	25123	34263	34263
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	32877	32814	28929	41625	41625
BAKKEN	4-2023	26	32088	31761	27524	36512	36512
BAKKEN	3-2023	21	20001	20008	25591	19703	19703
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	39734	39548	40755	2052	2052

38882, 918, WPX, Palo Pinto 20-17HB, Phaelens Butte, t--; cum 190K 6/23; stimulated 2/7/23; middle Bakken; 33 stages; 8,006,140 lbs proppant; 113,204 bbls fluid;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	35327	35339	12895	39560	39560
BAKKEN	5-2023	29	33739	33762	15090	34799	34799
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	42161	42116	20025	44522	44522
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	51301	51274	25119	53790	53790
BAKKEN	2-2023	16	27322	27110	18025	1411	1411

38883, 1,315, WPX, Palo Pinto 20-17HY, Phaelens Butte, t--; cum 184K 6/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	37730	37759	28336	46551	46551
BAKKEN	5-2023	30	48114	48010	37340	57014	57014
BAKKEN	4-2023	20	23601	23368	23001	33769	33769
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	29231	29193	24278	43397	43397
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	45336	45126	46649	2340	2340

38884, 1,040, WPX, Palo Pinto 20-17A, Phaelens Butte, t--; cum 192K 6/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	39370	39367	13665	40029	40029
BAKKEN	5-2023	29	35600	35519	14043	44029	44029
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	28883	28956	11980	33282	33282
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	57441	57415	32705	60496	60496
BAKKEN	2-2023	16	31084	30843	22222	1605	1605

MRO: Ashley-Bonnie-Linder-Newman-Reinhold-Rogers -- A-B-L-N-2R -- Betty Lou - Dawson - Duane - Gladheim - Laverne - Lillian -- B-2D-G-2L-O -- August 17, 2023

Locator: 45496B.

Today's permits.

Six new permits, #40129 - #40134, inclusive:

Operator: MRO
Field: Reunion Bay (Mountrail)
Comments:

MRO has permits for six wells -- Ashley USA, Bonnie USA, Newman USA, Rogers USA, Linder USA, and Reinhold USA; SWSW 4-151-93;

to be sited between 1237 FSL and 1425 FSL and between 1097 FWL and 1029 FWL

Based on the application for the Ashley USA well, these wells will be 1600-acre spaced wells, sections 5/6-151-93; and E/2 section 1-151-94.

The wells:

40129, Ashley
40130, Bonnie
40131, Newman
40132, Rogers
40133, Linder
40134, Reinhold

********************
Seven Wells North Of These New Permits

The wells, MRO - B-2D-G-2L-O

37834, loc, MRO, Betty Lou USA 14-33TFH, Reunion Bay,
37835, loc, MRO, Laverne USA 14-33H, Reunion Bay,
37836, loc, MRO, Duane USA 24-33TFH, Reunion Bay,
37837, loc, MRO, Lillian USA 24-33H, Reunion Bay,
37838, loc, MRO, Dawson USA 24-33TFH, Reunion Bay,
37389, loc, MRO, Gladheim USA 34-33H, Reunion Bay,
37840, loc, MRO, Olive USA 34-33TFH, Reunion Bay,

MRO With Six New Permits, Reunion Bay -- August 17, 2023

Locator: 45495B.

Eagle Ford: Chesapeake Energy and Earthstone Energy both completely exit the Eagle Ford; Ssitio Royalties spends $248 million to increase its Permian footprint by 7%. Link here.

Cove Point: BRK purchased an additional 50% stake in the Cove Point LNG facility has some wondering about owner Warren Buffett's commitment to the LNG space. Link here. Previously posted.

A month ago: link here.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $80.39.

Active rigs: 39.

Six new permits, #40129 - #40134, inclusive:

Operator: MRO
Field: Reunion Bay (Mountrail)
Comments:

MRO has permits for six wells -- Ashley USA, Bonnie USA, Newman USA, Rogers USA, Linder USA, and Reinhold USA; SWSW 4-151-93;

to be sited between 1237 FSL and 1425 FSL and between 1097 FWL and 1029 FWL

One permit renewed:

37802, CLR, Miles 9-6HSL1,

Four permits canceled:

CLR: two Miles permits and two Kennedy permits canceled; McKenzie County

ERCOT: Critical. Siren Red! August 17, 2023

Locator: 45494TX.

LATER: THE TEXAS GRID HELD. Send your "thank you" notes to Governor Abbot. But wow, it was close, and it's supposed to get hotter tomorrow, and over the weekend.

Original Post

ERCOT will be the closest it’s been all summer to failing. 7:30 p.m. to 8:30 p.m.

108 degrees right now — 3:33 p.m. Hottest temperature usualmente los 4:00 p.m.

Later, 4:39 p.m. -- it just hit 109°F.

High tomorrow: forecast, 110.

Sunday, 109.

Three-digit highs forecast for each day through the end of August.

I’ll be in the pool everyday.

*********************************
Digital Driver’s License

Embarrassing: Texas has no plans to introduce a digital driver’s license.

I did it myself. I took a photograph of my DL and I keep it on the iPhone. It won’t meet TSA requirements but in a pinch, I have something.

Also, on my iPhone: a copy of my Covid-19 vaccinations.

Link here.

The Mind Of A Bee -- August 17, 2023

Locator: 45493SCIENCE.

Wow, wow, wow!

I have this book. Bought it earlier this year in Portland, OR.

The author has an article in the current issue of Scientific American.

The Kavli Prize And Gravitational Waves -- A Look Back -- August 17, 2023

Locator: 45492TECH.

By the way, for the record, I just coined the name for the "next generation." LOL. I have bragging rights to that. Maybe I should trademark it. LOL.

Anyway, I digress. Moving forward.

The Kavli Prize.

This is why I get excited about investing; why I think America is the greatest country in the world; why ...

Just earlier this morning I mentioned the number of incredible STEM universities in the US. Look at this.

From the July / August, 2023, issue of The Scientific American;

Easier to read here and the full article.

New word for the day: kilonova. No, not the name of a Hawaiian island.

************************
Big Medicine

A great opportunity for investors.

Long story short: at a very advanced age my wife with absolutely zero medical issues (in the big scheme of things) underwent urgent / emergent gallbladder surgery.

Successful. Short hospital stay; no complications. Around $40,000.

Fast forward. Someone noted "an anomaly" on / near her liver on an ultrasound taken sometime during that "great gallbladder grand-tour."

So, ultrasound. Haven't gotten the bill yet, expect $3,500 or thereabouts.

The repeat ultrasound showed the same thing as the original ultrasound, but in Big Medicine, most clinics / hospitals repeat all diagnostic tests done at St Elsewhere.

CT scan ordered, accomplished, and read (the Apostles's Creed: "he was crucified, died, and buried" -- pretty much sums up 33 years of a carpenter's life). Sums up the CT story.

CT scan: normal. The "anomaly"? Adhesions from gallbladder surgery.

So, CT. Haven't gotten the bill yet, expect $5,500 or thereabouts.

My wife: happy as a lark.

Her doctor(s): happy as larks.

Medtronic / Siemans / GE: happy as larks.

Investors in any of the above: happy as larks.

Lesson learned: be happy. As a lark.

It should be noted that the original surgery was an open abdominal surgerical event which meant the surgeon, when removing the gallbladder, had an excellent view of the liver and would have seen that everything was fine. And, of course, confirmatory data: my wife had zero symptoms of liver pathology, and all liver enzymes (blood tests) were normal / negative. Doesn't drink alcohol. Doesn't smoke. No family history of liver disease.

The likelihood of anything wrong with the liver? 0.0000005%.

But you know, maybe an MRI is in order.

Our great, great friend an internist in Los Angeles taking care of the rich and maybe-not-so-famous, said, as all internists say, if you haven't found "something wrong" (i.e., disease) in your patient, you aren't looking hard enough.

And Just Like That -- BOOM! August 17, 2023

Locator: 45491INV.

Their Next Business Venture -- Delivering Bricks -- August 17, 2023

Locator: 45490ARCHIVES.

Big Pharma: Before the video, this is huge. Link here. I guess I can add Amazon to my Big Pharma bucket for investing purposes.

Grocers: by the way, last night, 2000 hours, after looking for a particular herb for the past four days and not being able to find it at Albertsons, Target, Market Street, I finally went to Amazon-owned Whole Foods and found the herb in huge quantities, and very reasonably priced.

Business venture, delivering home-building supplies. The twins specifically said "no basket." They wanted "this" option.

*************************
The Book Club

Huxley: From Devil's Disciple to Evolution's High Priest, Adrian J. Desmond, c. 1994, 1997. This is "old school" biography. Whoo-hoo.

Notes.

The "Beta Generation" -- August 17, 2023

Locator: 45489COMMENTARY.

A reader sent me a note about "investors" "investing" in MMFs. My not-ready-for-prime-time reply:

Yes, I was going to comment on that ... I get such a kick out of that.

First, it's really not "investing." It's a "savings account" or a "checking account." Or an ATM but it's not investing. For a number of reasons.

"Investing" for me always includes an element of risk. This -- the MMFs -- are a guaranteed 5% in most cases. There will be exceptions but for the most part this is not investing, and if it is, it's not in my definition of investing.

What I get a kick out of is this:

1. The same folks that let their money sit in regional bank accounts (savings, checking) for decades at 0.0001% interest are now thrilled to be earning 5% -- maybe 6% before it's all over.

2. Meanwhile, I can find any number of great blue chip companies beaten down in price that are paying 2%, and many much more than that, and which will definitely appreciate a whole lot more than the 2% - 6% spread that I'm willing to forego. Ford is paying over 5% right now, and is clearly beaten down ... my mom would have loved a 6% return on her money -- but I wouldn't exactly have called her an investor.

This is still the graph that haunts me -- a ten-year return --

And to think some folks are paying financial advisors to advise them to invest in MMFs.

You have no idea how great I think this market is right now. I can't invest fast enough.

The market may yet go lower.

But thirty years from now, this accumulation of shares will look incredible.

Long term:

1. Buffett once said: never bet against the US. I agree.

2. Short term: there's so much money on the sidelines ....

3. Short term: US 3Q23 GDP looking at upwards of 6% --- I know it won't come in that strong ... but a snapshot in time, today, 5.8% .... something must be working....

4. Long term: all those folks invested in China (now in serious trouble), Russia, EU, South America will continue to move their money to the US markets. So when I see money on the sidelines, it's not just money in US MMFs I'm talking about.

5. Now they talk about "real estate" could plummet and push the US into "deflation" like China is going through. It won't be long now and we'll be talking about the Next Great Depression.

But me?

I'm not satisfied with a 5% return. I doubt any "investor" would be. Shoot, even life insurance companies shoot for at least an 8% return.

You have no idea how great I think this market is right now. I can't invest fast enough.

I always come back to this: there are maybe two great universities in England; maybe four in France; maybe six in Germany. In the US, there are 25 mediocre-to-outstanding colleges and universities in the Boston area alone. The American entrepreneurial spirit has not wavered. Apple's computers coming out in September will have upwards of 80 cores; the original Apple computer had a single CPU. Those 80 cores are a mix of CPUs and GPUs. The tekkies know that Apple is light-years ahead of whatever else is out there. That doesn't mean Apple won't collapse as an investment but it tells me how far we've come in such a short period of time. Elon Musk -- builds an entire new automobile company using a mix of new technology in less than a decade, or whatever it was? The gazillion satellites overhead allowing GPS in our cars to be accurate to within 10 feet and that was put together by private companies. A government-agency and a private company raced to "print" the entire human genome, and the private company won.

I can name upwards of twenty great STEM colleges/universities without even looking them up, starting with CalTech, Texas A&M, MIT, Harvard graduate schools, the USAF and USN military academies, UT-Austin, Cornell, at least two in Chicago, at least two in NYC, Yale graduate schools, Vanderbilt, Princeton, Johns Hopkins, Standard, UCLA, UC-Santa Cruz, Ann Arbor.

And this is what really gets me excited. The next generation: the Alpha Generation or maybe the better- or more aptly-named, the "Beta" generation!

Does anyone really think the "beta generation" won't be filled with entrepreneurs?

Look how cool that is: he doesn't even use a foot pedal to "run" the needle. Finger-tip control leads to pixel control.

Forgive me, or excuse me, if I post this YouTube clip a few more times.

At his age, I was struggling with "Tickle Bee." Our three-year-old twins are operating a Japanese computer-assist sewing machine that costs under $150 and the next generation sewing machine, at $100, will probable include AI-assist; play Tik-Tok videos while sewing; and, dispense a 12-ounce cup of one's beverage of choice.

Apple, Ford, EVs -- August 17, 2023

Locator: 45488EVS.

Pet peeve: seeing "hype, AI" in same sentence.

Bigger pet peeve: seeing "hype, AI, Nvidia" in same paragraph.

EVs:

Link here to The WSJ.

I did not read much of the article, so I may have missed it, but I bet I did not. My hunch: The WSJ missed the really big story, here.

And it's very, very good news for Apple investors. I was thrilled when I read it.

Tech:

********************
If A Three-Year-Old ...

... can learn to operate a computer-assisted sewing machine, coal miners can learn to code.

Our twin #1 in Portland.

Notice: checking his notes before he starts. His brother also had notes, and a slightly different design. LOL.

This Obsession With Recession Never Ends -- Part 37 -- August 17, 2023

Locator: 45487ECON.

And yes: there will be a recession. Just to make that clear. Most folks, including Charlie Munger, think we have already been in one or are currently in one or there will be in. GDPNow, most recent estimate, yesterday, for 3Q23 GDP: 5.8 -- which I believe is the highest among western nations right now.

But for now? It's a "richcession." This obsession-recession is quite amazing. It's almost as if 30-y/o business writers have just discovered the business cycle. Link here.

They tag this "personal finance," but for the life of me I have no idea how this obsession with recession helps with personal finance.

This article meandered all over the financial plains:

Reminds me of a "Muppets" sketch.

LNG Buildout -- Update -- RBN Energy -- August 17, 2023

Locator: 45486LNG.

RBN Energy: Venture Global becomess LNG leader as Calcasieu Pass commissioning drags on, part 3. Archived.

Venture Global reached a final investment decision (FID) on Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 in March 2022, making it the first new LNG project to get the green light post-COVID and kicking off a massive expansion period for U.S. LNG. In fact,, more than 61 million tons per annum (MMtpa) of new U.S. LNG capacity has been given the go-ahead in the past 17 months, including the full 20-MMtpa Plaquemines LNG project from Venture Global, plus projects from Cheniere, Sempra and, most recently, NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG.

Even if no new LNG projects are sanctioned after this — which seems unlikely, given the progress seen on some pre-FID projects — the U.S. will have the capacity to export 167.5 MMtpa, or more than 22 Bcf/d, by later this decade.

This unprecedented level of buildout continues to be dominated by our “Big Three” of U.S. LNG — Cheniere, Sempra and Venture Global — which not only already operate LNG export terminals in the U.S. and have projects currently under construction, but all still have more capacity under development and working toward eventual FIDs.

In today’s RBN blog, we wrap up our series with a look at the newest member of the Big Three, Venture Global, its projects under development and the controversy surrounding the commissioning of Calcasieu Pass LNG.

Looking Good For A Thursday -- Triple-Digit Day For Texas -- Again -- August 17, 2023

Locator: 45485B.

Now? It's a "richcession." This obsession-recession is quite amazing. It's almost as if 30-y/o business writers have just discovered the business cycle. Link here.

Best advice ever: stay the course.

Quick picks: it's been a great month for investors and traders.

***************************

Back to the Bakken

WTI:

Friday, August 18, 2023: 35 for the month; 237 for the quarter, 482 for the year
39555, conf, Neptune Operating, Gibbins 11-2 2H,
39451, conf, CLR, Edward 11-23H1,
37881, conf, BR, Kermit 1-8-32UTFH,

Thursday, August 17, 2023: 32 for the month; 234 for the quarter, 479 for the year
39554, conf, Neptune Operating, Gibbins 11-2 3H,
38903, conf, Enerplus, MC-Kudrna 144-95-10-3-2H,
37880, conf, BR, Rink 2-1-5UTFH,
35470, conf, Oasis, MHA 1-29-30H-150-92,

RBN Energy: Venture Global becomess LNG leader as Calcasieu Pass commissioning drags on, part 3. Archived.

Venture Global reached a final investment decision (FID) on Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 in March 2022, making it the first new LNG project to get the green light post-COVID and kicking off a massive expansion period for U.S. LNG. In fact,, more than 61 million tons per annum (MMtpa) of new U.S. LNG capacity has been given the go-ahead in the past 17 months, including the full 20-MMtpa Plaquemines LNG project from Venture Global, plus projects from Cheniere, Sempra and, most recently, NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG.

Even if no new LNG projects are sanctioned after this — which seems unlikely, given the progress seen on some pre-FID projects — the U.S. will have the capacity to export 167.5 MMtpa, or more than 22 Bcf/d, by later this decade.

This unprecedented level of buildout continues to be dominated by our “Big Three” of U.S. LNG — Cheniere, Sempra and Venture Global — which not only already operate LNG export terminals in the U.S. and have projects currently under construction, but all still have more capacity under development and working toward eventual FIDs.

In today’s RBN blog, we wrap up our series with a look at the newest member of the Big Three, Venture Global, its projects under development and the controversy surrounding the commissioning of Calcasieu Pass LNG.

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Thursday, August 17, 2023