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Thursday, August 17, 2023

How Can We Not Send Him Back To The White House? August 17, 2023

 Locator: 45505POL.

You have to have a twitter account, but these are really quite clever.

Link here.

Countries With Insatiable Appetites For Gold, Falling Currencies, One Or Both -- August 17, 2023

 Locator: 45504GOLD.

Here:

India. Link here. Ramped up buying.

China. Link here: gold-buying spree continues for seventh-straight month.

Russia.

Turkey. Link here.

A CLR Woodrow Well In West Capa

Locator: 45503B.

The well:

  • 39098, F/A, CLR, Woodrow 6-32H, West Capa, t--; cum 35K 6/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20232535040348443414359177563662811
BAKKEN5-20234008234490449

 

A "PNC" Well That Has Been Drilled -- WPX Skunk Creek

Locator: 45502B.

The well:

  • 36481, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 12-7-8-16H, Heart Butte, t--; cum 50K 6/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20232816076160872887213264132640
BAKKEN5-20233018475184683737513485134850
BAKKEN4-2023169205918620310650065000
BAKKEN3-20232959295874101023613359716

 


A BR Rollacleetwood In Elidah

Locator: 45501B.

The well:

  • 30860, loc/A, BR, Rollacleetwood 11-27MBH ULW, Elidah, t--; cum 21K 6/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-202330210102101098464173440753952
BAKKEN5-20230000000
BAKKEN4-2023220083997167120

 

Whiting Locken In The Sanish

Locator: 45500B.

The well:

  • 38762, drl/a, Whiting, Locken 12-11TFX, Sanish, t--; cum 75K 6/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-202311239124174957360735570
BAKKEN5-2023318363840317262121271193240
BAKKEN4-2023309566949018361130991286089
BAKKEN3-202330108161084222818131371297911
BAKKEN2-20232811685117072693112263121231
BAKKEN1-202331102301012832521974695884
BAKKEN12-202224706073073011370426391545
BAKKEN11-202230897787534234182607275838
BAKKEN10-20222858105493352515361520946

 

Liberty Resources CA S In Enget Lake

Locator: 45499B.

The well:

  • 38864, A, Liberty Resources, CA S 158-93-21-23-5MBHX, Enget Lake, t--; cum 166K 6/23; F;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2023301306313337221921990319571332
BAKKEN5-20233114649146222454019041174861555
BAKKEN4-20233017667175722876521750197162034
BAKKEN3-202330204332054634115249722495814
BAKKEN2-202317123161246021457151651515015
BAKKEN1-2023252523224828449362811827484634
BAKKEN12-202241513183123071768169078
BAKKEN11-20223033121327535883737261331424119
BAKKEN10-20223127565269831010563368633509177
BAKKEN9-2022180219058580

Grayson Mill Margaret 5-8 XW 1HH, Spring Creek

Locator: 45498B.

The well:

  • 39432, drl/A, Grayson Mill, Margaret 5-8 XW 1H, Spring Creek, t--; cum 74K 6/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-202330326253253549546575211035146900
BAKKEN5-20232523730238044695338856267535969
BAKKEN4-20231317838176343844224971147723385
BAKKEN3-20230000000

 

DUCs Recently Reported As Completed -- WPX Palo Pinto Wells In Phaelens Butte -- August 17, 2023

Locator: 45497B.

Phaelens Butte is a small field in the reservation bordered by Spotted Horn to the north, Mandaree to the east, Eagle Nest to the south.

The wells;

  • 38881, 886, WPX, Palo Pinto 20-17-8HZL, Phaelens Butte, t--; cum 151K 6/23; stimulated 2/9/23; Three Fork First Bench,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20233026258263292512334263342630
BAKKEN5-20233132877328142892941625416250
BAKKEN4-20232632088317612752436512365120
BAKKEN3-20232120001200082559119703197030
BAKKEN2-202328397343954840755205220520
  • 38882, 918, WPX, Palo Pinto 20-17HB, Phaelens Butte, t--; cum 190K 6/23; stimulated 2/7/23; middle Bakken; 33 stages; 8,006,140 lbs proppant; 113,204 bbls fluid;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20233035327353391289539560395600
BAKKEN5-20232933739337621509034799347990
BAKKEN4-20233042161421162002544522445220
BAKKEN3-20233151301512742511953790537900
BAKKEN2-202316273222711018025141114110
  • 38883, 1,315, WPX, Palo Pinto 20-17HY, Phaelens Butte, t--; cum 184K 6/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20233037730377592833646551465510
BAKKEN5-20233048114480103734057014570140
BAKKEN4-20232023601233682300133769337690
BAKKEN3-20233129231291932427843397433970
BAKKEN2-202328453364512646649234023400
  • 38884, 1,040, WPX, Palo Pinto 20-17A, Phaelens Butte, t--; cum 192K 6/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20233039370393671366540029400290
BAKKEN5-20232935600355191404344029440290
BAKKEN4-20233028883289561198033282332820
BAKKEN3-20233157441574153270560496604960
BAKKEN2-202316310843084322222160516050

MRO: Ashley-Bonnie-Linder-Newman-Reinhold-Rogers -- A-B-L-N-2R -- Betty Lou - Dawson - Duane - Gladheim - Laverne - Lillian -- B-2D-G-2L-O -- August 17, 2023

Locator: 45496B.

Today's permits.

Six new permits, #40129 - #40134, inclusive:
  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Reunion Bay (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • MRO has permits for six wells -- Ashley USA, Bonnie USA, Newman USA, Rogers USA, Linder USA, and Reinhold USA; SWSW 4-151-93; 
      • to be sited between 1237 FSL and 1425 FSL and between 1097 FWL and 1029 FWL

Based on the application for the Ashley USA well, these wells will be 1600-acre spaced wells, sections 5/6-151-93; and E/2 section 1-151-94. 

The wells:

  • 40129, Ashley
  • 40130, Bonnie
  • 40131, Newman
  • 40132, Rogers
  • 40133, Linder
  • 40134, Reinhold

********************
Seven Wells North Of These New Permits

The wells, MRO - B-2D-G-2L-O

  • 37834, loc, MRO, Betty Lou USA 14-33TFH, Reunion Bay,
  • 37835, loc, MRO, Laverne USA 14-33H, Reunion Bay,
  • 37836, loc, MRO, Duane USA 24-33TFH, Reunion Bay,
  • 37837, loc, MRO, Lillian USA 24-33H, Reunion Bay,
  • 37838, loc, MRO, Dawson USA 24-33TFH, Reunion Bay,
  • 37389, loc, MRO, Gladheim USA 34-33H, Reunion Bay,
  • 37840, loc, MRO, Olive USA 34-33TFH, Reunion Bay,

MRO With Six New Permits, Reunion Bay -- August 17, 2023

Locator: 45495B.

Eagle Ford: Chesapeake Energy and Earthstone Energy both completely exit the Eagle Ford; Ssitio Royalties spends $248 million to increase its Permian footprint by 7%. Link here.

Cove Point: BRK purchased an additional 50% stake in the Cove Point LNG facility has some wondering about owner Warren Buffett's commitment to the LNG space. Link here. Previously posted.


A month ago: link here.


**************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $80.39. 

Active rigs: 39.

Six new permits, #40129 - #40134, inclusive:
  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Reunion Bay (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • MRO has permits for six wells -- Ashley USA, Bonnie USA, Newman USA, Rogers USA, Linder USA, and Reinhold USA; SWSW 4-151-93; 
      • to be sited between 1237 FSL and 1425 FSL and between 1097 FWL and 1029 FWL
One permit renewed:
  • 37802, CLR, Miles 9-6HSL1,
Four permits canceled:
  • CLR: two Miles permits and two Kennedy permits canceled; McKenzie County

ERCOT: Critical. Siren Red! August 17, 2023

Locator: 45494TX.

LATER: THE TEXAS GRID HELD. Send your "thank you" notes to Governor Abbot. But wow, it was close, and it's supposed to get hotter tomorrow, and over the weekend.

Original Post

ERCOT will be the closest it’s been all summer to failing. 7:30 p.m. to 8:30 p.m.

108 degrees right now — 3:33 p.m. Hottest temperature usualmente los 4:00 p.m.

Later, 4:39 p.m. -- it just hit 109°F

High tomorrow: forecast, 110.

Sunday, 109.

Three-digit highs forecast for each day through the end of August.

I’ll be in the pool everyday.

*********************************
Digital Driver’s License

Embarrassing: Texas has no plans to introduce a digital driver’s license. 

I did it myself. I took a photograph of my DL and I keep it on the iPhone. It won’t meet TSA requirements but in a pinch, I have something.

Also, on my iPhone: a copy of my Covid-19 vaccinations.

Link here.

The Mind Of A Bee -- August 17, 2023

Locator: 45493SCIENCE.

Wow, wow, wow!

I have this book. Bought it earlier this year in Portland, OR.

The author has an article in the current issue of Scientific American.


The Kavli Prize And Gravitational Waves -- A Look Back -- August 17, 2023

Locator: 45492TECH.

By the way, for the record, I just coined the name for the "next generation." LOL. I have bragging rights to that. Maybe I should trademark it. LOL.

Anyway, I digress. Moving forward. 

The Kavli Prize.

This is why I get excited about investing; why I think America is the greatest country in the world; why ...

Just earlier this morning I mentioned the number of incredible STEM universities in the US. Look at this.


From the July / August, 2023, issue of The Scientific American;


Easier to read here and the full article.

New word for the day: kilonova. No, not the name of a Hawaiian island.

************************
Big Medicine

A great opportunity for investors.

Long story short: at a very advanced age my wife with absolutely zero medical issues (in the big scheme of things) underwent urgent / emergent gallbladder surgery.

Successful. Short hospital stay; no complications. Around $40,000. 

Fast forward. Someone noted "an anomaly" on / near her liver on an ultrasound taken sometime during that "great gallbladder grand-tour." 

So, ultrasound. Haven't gotten the bill yet, expect $3,500 or thereabouts.

The repeat ultrasound showed the same thing as the original ultrasound, but in Big Medicine, most clinics / hospitals repeat all diagnostic tests done at St Elsewhere. 

CT scan ordered, accomplished, and read (the Apostles's Creed: "he was crucified, died, and buried" -- pretty much sums up 33 years of a carpenter's life). Sums up the CT story.

CT scan: normal. The "anomaly"? Adhesions from gallbladder surgery.

So, CT. Haven't gotten the bill yet, expect $5,500 or thereabouts.

My wife: happy as a lark.

Her doctor(s): happy as larks.

Medtronic / Siemans / GE: happy as larks.

Investors in any of the above: happy as larks.

Lesson learned: be happy. As a lark.

It should be noted that the original surgery was an open abdominal surgerical event which meant the surgeon, when removing the gallbladder, had an excellent view of the liver and would have seen that everything was fine. And, of course, confirmatory data: my wife had zero symptoms of liver pathology, and all liver enzymes (blood tests) were normal / negative. Doesn't drink alcohol. Doesn't smoke. No family history of liver disease.

The likelihood of anything wrong with the liver? 0.0000005%.

But you know, maybe an MRI is in order.

Our great, great friend an internist in Los Angeles taking care of the rich and maybe-not-so-famous, said, as all internists say, if you haven't found "something wrong" (i.e., disease) in your patient, you aren't looking hard enough.

Their Next Business Venture -- Delivering Bricks -- August 17, 2023

Locator: 45490ARCHIVES.

Big Pharma: Before the video, this is huge. Link here. I guess I can add Amazon to my Big Pharma bucket for investing purposes. 

Grocers: by the way, last night, 2000 hours, after looking for a particular herb for the past four days and not being able to find it at Albertsons, Target, Market Street, I finally went to Amazon-owned Whole Foods and found the herb in huge quantities, and very reasonably priced.

Business venture, delivering home-building supplies. The twins specifically said "no basket." They wanted "this" option. 

*************************
The Book Club

Huxley: From Devil's Disciple to Evolution's High Priest, Adrian J. Desmond, c. 1994, 1997. This is "old school" biography. Whoo-hoo.

Notes.


The "Beta Generation" -- August 17, 2023

Locator: 45489COMMENTARY.

A reader sent me a note about "investors" "investing" in MMFs. My not-ready-for-prime-time reply:

Yes, I was going to comment on that ... I get such a kick out of that.

First, it's really not "investing." It's a "savings account" or a "checking account." Or an ATM but it's not investing. For a number of reasons.

"Investing" for me always includes an element of risk. This -- the MMFs -- are a guaranteed 5% in most cases. There will be exceptions but for the most part this is not investing, and if it is, it's not in my definition of investing.

What I get a kick out of is this:

1. The same folks that let their money sit in regional bank accounts (savings, checking) for decades at 0.0001% interest are now thrilled to be earning 5% -- maybe 6% before it's all over.

2. Meanwhile, I can find any number of great blue chip companies beaten down in price that are paying 2%, and many much more than that, and which will definitely appreciate a whole lot more than the 2% - 6% spread that I'm willing to forego. Ford is paying over 5% right now, and is clearly beaten down ... my mom would have loved a 6% return on her money -- but I wouldn't exactly have called her an investor.
This is still the graph that haunts me -- a ten-year return --

And to think some folks are paying financial advisors to advise them to invest in MMFs.

You have no idea how great I think this market is right now. I can't invest fast enough.

The market may yet go lower.

But thirty years from now, this accumulation of shares will look incredible.

Long term:

1. Buffett once said: never bet against the US. I agree.

2. Short term: there's so much money on the sidelines ....

3. Short term: US 3Q23 GDP looking at upwards of 6% --- I know it won't come in that strong ... but a snapshot in time, today, 5.8% .... something must be working....

4. Long term: all those folks invested in China (now in serious trouble), Russia, EU, South America will continue to move their money to the US markets. So when I see money on the sidelines, it's not just money in US MMFs I'm talking about.

5. Now they talk about "real estate" could plummet and push the US into "deflation" like China is going through. It won't be long now and we'll be talking about the Next Great Depression.

But me?

I'm not satisfied with a 5% return. I doubt any "investor" would be. Shoot, even life insurance companies shoot for at least an 8% return.

You have no idea how great I think this market is right now. I can't invest fast enough.

I always come back to this: there are maybe two great universities in England; maybe four in France; maybe six in Germany. In the US, there are 25 mediocre-to-outstanding colleges and universities in the Boston area alone. The American entrepreneurial spirit has not wavered. Apple's computers coming out in September will have upwards of 80 cores; the original Apple computer had a single CPU. Those 80 cores are a mix of CPUs and GPUs. The tekkies know that Apple is light-years ahead of whatever else is out there. That doesn't mean Apple won't collapse as an investment but it tells me how far we've come in such a short period of time. Elon Musk -- builds an entire new automobile company using a mix of new technology in less than a decade, or whatever it was? The gazillion satellites overhead allowing GPS in our cars to be accurate to within 10 feet and that was put together by private companies. A government-agency and a private company raced to  "print" the entire human genome, and the private company won.

I can name upwards of twenty great STEM colleges/universities without even looking them up, starting with CalTech, Texas A&M, MIT, Harvard graduate schools, the USAF and USN military academies, UT-Austin, Cornell, at least two in Chicago, at least two in NYC, Yale graduate schools, Vanderbilt, Princeton, Johns Hopkins, Standard, UCLA, UC-Santa Cruz, Ann Arbor.

And this is what really gets me excited. The next generation: the Alpha Generation or maybe the better- or more aptly-named, the "Beta" generation! 

Does anyone really think the "beta generation" won't be filled with entrepreneurs?


Look how cool that is: he doesn't even use a foot pedal to "run" the needle. Finger-tip control leads to pixel control.

Forgive me, or excuse me, if I post this YouTube clip a few more times. 

At his age, I was struggling with "Tickle Bee." Our three-year-old twins are operating a Japanese computer-assist sewing machine that costs under $150 and the next generation sewing machine, at $100, will probable include AI-assist; play Tik-Tok videos while sewing; and, dispense a 12-ounce cup of one's beverage of choice.

Apple, Ford, EVs -- August 17, 2023

Locator: 45488EVS.

Pet peeve: seeing "hype, AI" in same sentence.

Bigger pet peeve: seeing "hype, AI, Nvidia" in same paragraph.

EVs:

I did not read much of the article, so I may have missed it, but I bet I did not. My hunch: The WSJ missed the really big story, here.


And it's very, very good news for Apple investors. I was thrilled when I read it.

Tech

********************
If A Three-Year-Old ...

... can learn to operate a computer-assisted sewing machine, coal miners can learn to code. 

Our twin #1 in Portland.

Notice: checking his notes before he starts. His brother also had notes, and a slightly different design. LOL.
 

This Obsession With Recession Never Ends -- Part 37 -- August 17, 2023

Locator: 45487ECON.

And yes: there will be a recession. Just to make that clear. Most folks, including Charlie Munger, think we have already been in one or are currently in one or there will be in. GDPNow, most recent estimate, yesterday, for 3Q23 GDP: 5.8 -- which I believe is the highest among western nations right now.

But for now? It's a "richcession." This obsession-recession is quite amazing. It's almost as if 30-y/o business writers have just discovered the business cycle. Link here.

They tag this "personal finance," but for the life of me I have no idea how this obsession with recession helps with personal finance. 


This article meandered all over the financial plains:


Reminds me of a "Muppets" sketch.

LNG Buildout -- Update -- RBN Energy -- August 17, 2023

Locator: 45486LNG.

Venture Global reached a final investment decision (FID) on Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 in March 2022, making it the first new LNG project to get the green light post-COVID and kicking off a massive expansion period for U.S. LNG. In fact,, more than 61 million tons per annum (MMtpa) of new U.S. LNG capacity has been given the go-ahead in the past 17 months, including the full 20-MMtpa Plaquemines LNG project from Venture Global, plus projects from Cheniere, Sempra and, most recently, NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG. 
Even if no new LNG projects are sanctioned after this — which seems unlikely, given the progress seen on some pre-FID projects — the U.S. will have the capacity to export 167.5 MMtpa, or more than 22 Bcf/d, by later this decade
This unprecedented level of buildout continues to be dominated by our “Big Three” of U.S. LNG — Cheniere, Sempra and Venture Global — which not only already operate LNG export terminals in the U.S. and have projects currently under construction, but all still have more capacity under development and working toward eventual FIDs. 
In today’s RBN blog, we wrap up our series with a look at the newest member of the Big Three, Venture Global, its projects under development and the controversy surrounding the commissioning of Calcasieu Pass LNG.

Looking Good For A Thursday -- Triple-Digit Day For Texas -- Again -- August 17, 2023

Locator: 45485B.

Now? It's a "richcession." This obsession-recession is quite amazing. It's almost as if 30-y/o business writers have just discovered the business cycle. Link here.

Best advice ever: stay the course.

Quick picks: it's been a great month for investors and traders.



***************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI

Friday, August 18, 2023: 35 for the month; 237 for the quarter, 482 for the year
39555, conf, Neptune Operating, Gibbins 11-2 2H,
39451, conf, CLR, Edward 11-23H1,
37881, conf, BR, Kermit 1-8-32UTFH,

Thursday, August 17, 2023: 32 for the month; 234 for the quarter, 479 for the year
39554, conf, Neptune Operating, Gibbins 11-2 3H,
38903, conf, Enerplus, MC-Kudrna 144-95-10-3-2H,
37880, conf, BR, Rink 2-1-5UTFH,
35470, conf, Oasis, MHA 1-29-30H-150-92,

Venture Global reached a final investment decision (FID) on Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 in March 2022, making it the first new LNG project to get the green light post-COVID and kicking off a massive expansion period for U.S. LNG. In fact,, more than 61 million tons per annum (MMtpa) of new U.S. LNG capacity has been given the go-ahead in the past 17 months, including the full 20-MMtpa Plaquemines LNG project from Venture Global, plus projects from Cheniere, Sempra and, most recently, NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG. 
Even if no new LNG projects are sanctioned after this — which seems unlikely, given the progress seen on some pre-FID projects — the U.S. will have the capacity to export 167.5 MMtpa, or more than 22 Bcf/d, by later this decade
This unprecedented level of buildout continues to be dominated by our “Big Three” of U.S. LNG — Cheniere, Sempra and Venture Global — which not only already operate LNG export terminals in the U.S. and have projects currently under construction, but all still have more capacity under development and working toward eventual FIDs. 
In today’s RBN blog, we wrap up our series with a look at the newest member of the Big Three, Venture Global, its projects under development and the controversy surrounding the commissioning of Calcasieu Pass LNG.