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Sunday, August 13, 2023

Focus On Fracking -- US Oil Production At 40-Month High -- August 13, 2023

Locator: 45453FRACK.

Link here.

The subject title and lede:
US oil production at ​a 40 month high; record drop in US oil exports; global oil supply was 1,260,000 bpd short in July. 
US oil production at a post-pandemic high; record drop in US oil exports, first Strategic Petroleum Reserve increase in 37 months; gasoline supplies at an eight month low; global oil supply was 1,260,000 barrels per day short in July as OPEC output was 781,000 barrels per day below their lowered targets.
US oil production at a 40-month high? Time to review Hubbert's peak theory.

The SPR:
This week's 978,000 barrel per day increase in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 836,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 140,000 barrels per day were being added to the oil in our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the first increase in the SPR since July 10th, 2020 .... 
..... however, except for the past four weeks, the 347,754,000 barrels of oil that still remain in our Strategic Petroleum Reserve would still be the lowest since August 19th, 1983, as repeated tapping of our emergency oil supplies for non-emergencies or to pay for other programs had already drained those supplies considerably over the past dozen years, even before the Biden administration's big SPR ​withdrawals of last year. However, those Biden administration withdrawals amounted to about 42% of what was left in the SPR when they took office, and that left us with what is now less than a 18 day supply of oil at the current consumption rate.

Tech -- August 13, 2023

Locator: 45452TECH.

This article is behind a paywall at CNBC but a little sleuthing and one can find it elsewhere.

Link here.

Ironically -- if that's the right word -- Micron is the one tech stock I avoid. LOL. I'll have to take another look.

Nothing in the one-year chart impresses me:


 Nvidia oo expensive? The P/E ratio for Micron is "not defined."

************************
Amazon

Racing to catch up

Count the number of times Nvidia shows up in the linked article and then how often Micron shows up in the linked article.

Apple Prices Are Dropping -- August 10, 2023

Locator: 45408AAPL.

Apple, the computer company, tends to lag compared to Big Box stores when it comes to sales on Apple products, but even now, Apple -- the company itself -- is starting to lower prices.

Amazon and others started dropping prices about a month ago (?). 

All signs are pointing to huge announcements -- plural -- in September when Apple will introduce new products. To make room for all these new products, retailers (and Apple) have to clear their shelves of their current inventory.

Generally speaking, Apple products last five to ten years. If one's Apple product is serving you well and it's less than five years old there's little reason to upgrade.

Except.

Except.

If they go on sale for a ridiculous amount.

I've been doing that since 1984. I never used to buy a new Apple product. When new products were about to be introduced I bought the "old" models when prices were cut.

"I never used to buy" is important. Now that I am in the later autumn of my life, let's say November, I find myself interested in buying newer Apple products.

I just replaced my iPhone SE which was the first generation, released in 2016. That's seven years ago and the phone that replaced my Nokia flip phone.

About six months earlier, the MacBook Air with the new (at the time) M1 chip was on sale and I bought one. Bought through Amazon, on sale, and with the Amazon card got 1-to-5-percent cash back (I don't know the cash back rules). I didn't open that MacBook Air until two days -- it's been in the bedroom unopened for six months. In the meantime, I spruced up my current MacBook Air (2020?) and it is still my primary computer.

The new MacBook Air will be used, maybe once a month or so.

I've been drooling after the iPad mini -- a long, long story. But I had no reason to buy it. I've been following YouTube reviews of the iPad and they all say the same thing: there is no known reason for owning and iPad mini. But once you have it, it's the greatest thing since sliced bread. But I still wouldn't but it.

Until.

Until.

Amazon put the iPad mini for 20% off sometime last week. I ordered one on a Saturday or Sunday morning, probably Saturday, I forget, and it arrived that same afternoon.

Now, I see Amazon has taken $300 off the 2023 MacBook Pro "with multiple record low prices." Link here.

Tell Me Again Americans Are Broke -- August 13, 2023

Locator: 45450ECON. 

Tag: my favorite chart.

Tell me again Americans are running out of money -- that they've spent all that money under the curve. Wow, it gets tedious.

Link here.

And Ford can't make enough $150,000 F-150 Raptors to meet demand. Previously reported. Some hyperbole, perhaps, but not much.

Note: 


Five months of gains. Okay.

My favorite charts:

And, then, of course, not too long ago:

Inevitable, link here:

Another Great Day In The Greatest Country In The World -- August 13, 2023

Locator: 45449SPORTS.

Updates

Later, 6:46 p.m. CDT: Megan Scholfill wins, a "4&3 win." It's almost bittersweet. I was pulling for Latanna, such a great sport. ["4&3 win: three holes left; wins 4-up. Couldn't one just say "wins with 3 holes left"?]

One of the "cool" things about Covid -- allowed athletes to play five full years -- if I understand this correctly, Latanna could come back and play again for the championship next year.

  • Megan Schofill: seeded 6th -- looks like she could win this going away, as they say; three up with eleven holes left to play; Auburn. Nine holes left, up four. Looks like she wins at the 33rd hole. 
  • Latanna Stone: seeded 45th; very sore right leg, LSU. You know, that's pretty good, to be seeded #45 and take on the number 6 seed and take it almost to the 36th hole.
  • earlier, Rachel Heck, lost in the semi-finals was seeded ninth. Yesterday.

Original Post

Sports:

  • NFL pre-season
  • FedEx PGA in Memphis wraps up today; field will be cut from 70 to 50
  • 123rd Amateur Women's golf will crow a new champion today

FedEx -- PGA: wow, what an incredible disappointment. Only two or three big names. Where are / were all the big names? Clearly the era of Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson is over. Bittersweet. Absolutely the most boring tournament ever. I did watch the last twelve holes -- who won? Let's look: Glover, Cantlay, Rory, and Tommy Fleetwood. So unremarkable. Fifty advance. Ricky Fowler and Matt Kuchar won't advance.

The book club: The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague in History, John M. Barry, c. hardcover, c. 2004 -- just arrived today -- by Amazon; ordered yesterday. "Free delivery." The book that led me to this book: Premonition by Michael Lewis, writing on the outbreak of Covid back in 2020. Written in real time.

Notes.

Swimming: 50 lengths of the pool -- a new record for me; used to do 20, then upped it to 40 this year; today, 50 for the first time. Done earlier. Will be back in the pool later this evening.

Birthday: planning for birthday party blow-out which is scheduled for next Saturday.

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Rivian

Rivian was recently in the news. That was a turning point for me. I no longer follow the "EV" story; no longer interested. But that doesn't mean I won't follow an occasional story, especially if it "involves" or relates to investing.

This recommendation four days ago:

So, how did Rivian do after that stellar 2Q23 earnings and the prediction for a huge short squeeze:

Down 16% over five days:

ARM IPO To Be Tracked Here

Locator: 45447TECH.

Getting ready for ARM.

  • from earlier this week:
  • and:
  • today, from Reuters; I don't know how this works, whether it occurs before the IPO or after; I assume SoftBank is trying to close this before the IPO?

Investing -- Rambling -- ARM -- GQG Fund Adds Tech -- August 13, 2023 -- IN PROGRESS

Locator: 45446TECH.

Getting ready for ARM
.
  • from earlier this week:
  • and:
  • today, from Reuters; I don't know how this works, whether it occurs before the IPO or after; I assume SoftBank is trying to close this before the IPO?

*******************************
More

Most anticipated investing story this coming week? Warren Buffett's BRK quarterly SEC filing.
  • will be released Monday, August 14, 2023.
  • it's hard to believe that one investor owns 24% of an oil company the size of OXY; amazing.
  • biggest question: did Buffett sell PARA; my hunch, he did not; having said that, lousy stock in a lousy sector; have no idea what he was thinking, though I have my thoughts.
Laser-focused on dividends:
  • no need to add further comments to this article on KMI -- 6.4% dividend
  • OXY: 1.09% dividend
Pipelines: should be added to the "utilities" bucket. 
  • pipelines will grow assets only by acquisitions; new pipelines "dead'
  • shares pretty much reflect demand for product being shipped
  • does that make KMI nothing more than a "utility"?
KMI

KMI: ticker, max:


AMAZON, AAPL, Nvidia, link here. GQG Partners, Fort Lauderdale, Florida:
  • adds to its positions in the "magnificent seven megacap stocks:

NEW YORK, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Australia-listed investment firm GQG Partners added more shares of Nvidia Corp in the second quarter, ending June with $5.9 billion invested in the chipmaker, according to regulatory filings on Friday.

Shares in Nvidia are up roughly 180% year to date and reached $1 trillion in market capitalization, amid excitement over advancements in artificial intelligence.

GQG held 13.9 million shares of Nvidia at the end of June, or 5.7 million more than it did on March 31.

The firm also built a new position in Amazon.com Inc of roughly $2 billion, besides increasing existing positions in some of the other so-called "magnificent seven" megacap stocks": Alphabet Inc, Apple Inc and Microsoft Corp.

Covid-19 -- Update -- August 13, 2023

Locator: 45445COVID.

Current circulating variant and variant of interest. Link here. Vaccine update, August 14,2023: link here.

Periodically, folks should go back and re-read the history of the Covid-19 pandemic, starting with a short overview, such as that posted by wiki. It really was an amazing time. 

Wuhan flu. The blog Coronavirus: statistics    Seasonal flu: CDC.  

The data at this page can no longer be accurate. So many folks in the US are taking their own tests at home and not reporting results to anyone or anywhere. But it's all we have. Most recently:

Ranked by new cases, of the top eleven, note which countries did not make the top ten list:

For those who did not notice, keep reading.

And then this headline


The following chart from MMWR keeps moving to the right, so it won't be too long before the data from 2019 starts to disappear at the MMWR site:

The graph I find most remarkable, link here:

And, now, from today: 


*************************
My Covid-19 Library

The Genetics Of Corona Viruslink here

Breathless: The Scientific Race to Defeat a Deadly Virus, David Quammen, 2022. Link here.

Spike: The Virus vs. The People - the Inside Story – Sage Scientist’s Revelatory Covid Memoir -- Jeremy Farrar -- October 15, 2022. Link here.

Apollo's Arrow: The Profound and Enduring Impact of Coronavirus on the Way We Live, Nicholas A. Christakis, c. 2020. 614.5924CHR. Link here.

Wuhan Diary: Dispatches from a Quarantined City, Fang Fang, translated by Michael Berry, c. 2020. 614.5924FAN.

Covid-19: The Pandemic That Never Should Have Happened And How To Stop The Next One, Debora MacKenzie, c. 2020.  614.5924MAC. Credentials: a journalist, with history of "working as a biomedical researcher. Book jacket does not say what her degree was in and where she got her degree.

The Premonition: A Pandemic Story, Michael Lewis, c. 2021. 614.5924LEW. Credentials: best-selling author, to include: The Fifth Risk; Moneyball; Liar's Poker; The Big Short.

Fifth Risk: written during the first half of the Trump administration, The Fifth Risk framed the federal government as a manager of a portfolio of existential risks; natural disasters, nuclear weapons, financial panics, hostile foreigners, energy security, food security, and on and on and on. [He could have included other risks: loss of free speech; loss of rights to own guns; loss of right to privacy and on and on and on.]
This, Premonition, may be one of the most interesting of the lot. Told by a great story-teller. No index. Will have to find out for myself his thoughts on Fauci and gain-of-function. Later: review over at The [London] Guardian. Less than impressed. I agree. Explains why Trump did not fire Fauci: he did not have that authority.

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- August 13, 2023

Locator: 45444B.

  • 39448, conf, CLR, Edward 8-23H1, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 39449, conf, CLR, Edward 9-23H1, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 37931, conf, BR, Parrish 3B MBH, Pershing, no production data,
  • 35467, conf, Oasis, MHA 6-27-26H-150-92, Van Hook, 

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-202384621208
5-202362532804
4-2023151936424
3-20232384011349

  • 39450, conf, CLR, Edward 10-23H, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 38995, conf, Hess, TI-Stenback-158-95-2526H-10, Tioga, 

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-202320301737
5-2023780371
4-202317839

  • 38904, conf, Enerplus, MC-Kudrna 144-95-10-3-3H, Murphy Creek, 

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-2023122277277
5-2023118557480
4-20231923610464
3-2023152836653
2-202394013282

  • 39555, conf, Neptune Operating, Gibbins 11-2 2H, Painted Woods, 

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-2023240750
5-2023245150

  • 39451, conf, CLR, Edward 11-23H1, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 37881, conf, BR, Kermit 1-8-32UTFH, Pershing, no production data,
  • 39554, conf, Neptune Operating, Gibbins 11-2 3H, Painted Woods, 

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-2023230760
5-2023238890

38903, conf, Enerplus, MC-Kudrna 144-95-10-3-2H, Murphy Creek, 

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-2023105886659
5-2023123976937
4-2023149148564
3-2023152018661
2-202337311326

  • 37880, conf, BR, Rink 2-1-5UTFH, Pershing, no production data,
  • 35470, conf, Oasis, MHA 1-29-30H-150-92, Van Hook, 

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-202351021034
5-20232759916097
4-20233675920737
3-20233844823450
2-2023206288858

  • 39553, conf, Neptune Operating, Gibbins LE 11-2 1H, Painted Woods, 

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-2023237740
5-2023220330

  • 39452, conf, CLR, Edward 12-23HSL, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 37879, conf, BR, Kermit 1-8-32MBH, Pershing, no production data,
  • 37878, conf, BR, Rink 1-1-5MB, Pershing, no production data,
  • 38945, conf, Hess, BW-Rolfson-151-98-2116H-12, Sivertson,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20232340073306
5-20232788074744
4-20232547270729
3-20233326570728
2-20232470114578

  • 39571, conf, Challenger Point Energy, Jacobsen 11-6, Woburn, no production data,
  • 39491, conf, Kraken, Ricky-Lee LE 18-7-6- 11H, Squires, no production data,
  • 38905, conf, Enerplus, MC-Kudrna 144-95-10-3-4H, Murphy Creek,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-2023128218408
5-2023163129743
4-202393575324
3-20231947411072
2-2023176757653

  • 39492, conf, Kraken, Anseth LW 20-29-32-12H, Squires, no production data,
  • 39454, conf, CLR, Edward 2-23HSL1, Little Knife, no production data,

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- August 13, 2023

Locator: 45443B.

Wednesday, August 23, 2023: 42 for the month; 244 for the quarter, 489 for the year
39448, conf, CLR, Edward 8-23H1, 

Tuesday, August 22, 2023: 41 for the month; 243 for the quarter, 488 for the year
None.

Monday, August 21, 2023: 41 for the month; 243 for the quarter, 488 for the year
39449, conf, CLR, Edward 9-23H1, 
37931, conf, BR, Parrish 3B MBH,
35467, conf, Oasis, MHA 6-27-26H-150-92,

Sunday, August 20, 2023: 38 for the month; 240 for the quarter, 485 for the year
39450, conf, CLR, Edward 10-23H,
38995, conf, Hess, TI-Stenback-158-95-2526H-10,
38904, conf, Enerplus, MC-Kudrna 144-95-10-3-3H,

Saturday, August 19, 2023: 35 for the month; 237 for the quarter, 482 for the year
None.

Friday, August 18, 2023: 35 for the month; 237 for the quarter, 482 for the year
39555, conf, Neptune Operating, Gibbins 11-2 2H,
39451, conf, CLR, Edward 11-23H1,
37881, conf, BR, Kermit 1-8-32UTFH,

Thursday, August 17, 2023: 32 for the month; 234 for the quarter, 479 for the year
39554, conf, Neptune Operating, Gibbins 11-2 3H,
38903, conf, Enerplus, MC-Kudrna 144-95-10-3-2H,
37880, conf, BR, Rink 2-1-5UTFH,
35470, conf, Oasis, MHA 1-29-30H-150-92,

Wednesday, August 16, 2023: 28 for the month; 230 for the quarter, 475 for the year
39553, conf, Neptune Operating, Gibbins LE 11-2 1H,
39452, conf, CLR, Edward 12-23HSL,
37879, conf, BR, Kermit 1-8-32MBH,

Tuesday, August 15, 2023: 25 for the month; 227 for the quarter, 482 for the year
37878, conf, BR, Rink 1-1-5MBH,

Monday, August 14, 2023: 24 for the month; 226 for the quarter, 481 for the year
38945, conf, Hess, BW-Rolfson-151-98-2116H-12, 

Sunday, August 13, 2023: 23 for the month; 225 for the quarter, 480 for the year
39571, conf, Challenger Point Energy, Jacobsen 11-6, 
39491, conf, Kraken, Ricky-Lee LE 18-7-6- 11H, 
38905, conf, Enerplus, MC-Kudrna 144-95-10-3-4H,

Saturday, August 12, 2023: 20 for the month; 222 for the quarter, 477 for the yea
39492, conf, Kraken, Anseth LW 20-29-32-12H, 
39454, conf, CLR, Edward 2-23HSL1,