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Wednesday, August 2, 2023

OMG -- Stocks Plunged Today On A Credit Downgrade -- A Downgrade That According to Jamie Dimon Means Absolutely Nothing -- And, We Move On -- August 2, 2023

Locator: 45307INV. 

Let's put this in perspective.

Today's headlines. Variations of same everywhere. Jim Cramer says to "circle the wagons. Raise cash." 


For those whose entire investment portfolio is in BRK-B.


Year-to-date, your portfolio has increased 13.32%; on an annual basis, about 25%.

Today, due to a downgrade, "stocks plunged" and your portfolio gave back 0.3%. Not 30%. Not 3%. But 0.3%. 


For every $1,000.00 you had on January 1, 2023, you had about $1,130.00 yesterday. Today, due to the huge selloff, you have about $1129.661. 

Okay.

BRK-B, by the way is up 0.06% after-hours tonight.

Let's see. $1,130.00 - $1,129.661 = 34 cents loss on every $1,000 since today's sell-off. 

If you had a million dollars in BRK-B, I guess you lost $340 today. 

After gaining $133,200 through yesterday, year-to-date.

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors. My numbers could be off any number of decimal points. If this is important to you, find a high school senior math whiz to do the calculations.
 
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Movie Night

Highly recommended: Good Omens. Amazon Prime Video.
 
Amazon in association with BBCS. 
 
Producer, Irish film producer Sarah-Kate Fenelon.

CLR LCU Wells Recently Brought On Line -- August 9, 2023

Locator: 45305B. 

The CLR LCU wells are tracked here.

Note: as of this date, the NDIC reports 79 CLR wells in Long Creek oil field. 

  • seven of them are Winston, non-LCU wells:
  • of the 72 CLR LCU wells:
  • there are 35 H1 wells;
  • the rest, 37 are middle Bakken wells
  • 16 are LCU Jessie wells
  • 13 are LCU Truman / Truman Federal wells
  • 12 are LCU Foster / Foster FIU wells
  • 16 are LCU Reckitt / Reckitt Federal wells
  • 14 are LCU Ralph / Foster FIU wells
  • [I'm off by one, so somewhere I miscounted]

The wells:

  • 36957, drl/drl, LCU Reckitt Federal 12-22H1, drl status noted 2/22/20; no production as of 6/22;
  • 36956, drl/drl, LCU Ralph 10-27H1, drl status noted 2/20/20; no production as of 6/22;
  • 36955, drl/drl, LCU Ralph 11-27H, drl status noted 2/19/20; no production as of 6/22;
  • 36954, drl, LCU Ralph 12-27H1, drl status noted 2/16/20; minimal production, noted, 8/22;
  • etc ...

Initial production:

  • 36957, drl/drl, LCU Reckitt Federal 12-22H1, drl status noted 2/22/20; no production as of 6/22; remains on drl status, no production data,
  •  36956, drl/drl, LCU Ralph 10-27H1, drl status noted 2/20/20; no production as of 6/22; remains on drl status, no production data,
  • 36955, drl/drl, LCU Ralph 11-27H, drl status noted 2/19/20; no production as of 6/22; remains on drl status, no production data,
  •  36954, drl, LCU Ralph 12-27H1, drl status noted 2/16/20; minimal production, noted, 8/22; t--; cum 132K 6/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-202322110451112914012199821989587
BAKKEN5-2023292903929021247255389553104790
BAKKEN4-2023252015420120262262885527937917
BAKKEN3-20233035969360253336155055514873567
BAKKEN2-20232834887347983273844826378326993
BAKKEN1-20231634599706702364338
BAKKEN12-20220000000
BAKKEN11-20220000000
BAKKEN10-20220000000
BAKKEN9-202222212211435000
BAKKEN8-20221001530000
  • 36995, conf-->loc/drl (3/13/22), LCU Ralph Federal 9-27H1; minimal production, 11/22; cum 25K 2/23; cum 97K 6/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2023301571215698257702627826163114
BAKKEN5-20233089168976219971618815950237
BAKKEN4-2023251931319271310762842627521904
BAKKEN3-20233128976290075034038723362212501
BAKKEN2-20232824280241944536728599241374461
BAKKEN1-20230000000
BAKKEN12-20220000000
BAKKEN11-20220000000
BAKKEN10-202232182184329000
  • 36996, conf-->loc/drl (3/13/22), CLR, LCU Ralph Federal 8-27H; minimal production, 11/22; cum 28K 2/23; cum 153K 6/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2023271878118866246253516435010153
BAKKEN5-2023313517635192378895593655119816
BAKKEN4-20232732205321173946544523431091413
BAKKEN3-20233138735387594592853094496613432
BAKKEN2-20232627731276333823133220280375182
BAKKEN1-20230000000
BAKKEN12-20220000000
BAKKEN11-20220000000
BAKKEN10-202234634634689000
  • 36997, conf-->loc/drl (3/13/22), CLR, LCU Ralph Federal 7-27H1; minimal production, 11/22; t--; cum 142K 6/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2023302448724550251924812747916210
BAKKEN5-2023313431834377304685341252632779
BAKKEN4-20233039912397764004655833540591773
BAKKEN3-20233133927338923946343464406592804
BAKKEN2-20238854185119956863372871346
BAKKEN1-20230000000
BAKKEN12-20220000000
BAKKEN11-20220000000
BAKKEN10-202218268265671000

  • 37011, conf-->loc/drl, CLR, LCU Foster Federal 12-29HSL1, permit renewed Oct 1, 2021; minimal production, 11/22; cum 110K 6/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2023292458224664193614573645536199
BAKKEN5-20233039165392333204770513694791033
BAKKEN4-20232545677454473685567385652402144
BAKKEN3-20230000000
BAKKEN2-20230000000
BAKKEN1-20230000000
BAKKEN12-20220000000
BAKKEN11-202243673673025000
  • 38168, conf-->drl, CLR, LCU Foster FIU 5-28H1, Long Creek, no production data, cum --; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2023221533815240485802122120631590
BAKKEN5-20230000000
BAKKEN4-20230000000
BAKKEN3-20230000000
BAKKEN2-20230000000
BAKKEN1-20230000000
BAKKEN12-202221661661778000
  • 38171, conf-->drl, CLR, LCU Foster FIU 8-28H1, no production data; cum --;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20233043998440583468863336615701766
BAKKEN5-2023121863218291145902657126448123
BAKKEN4-20230000000
BAKKEN3-20230000000
BAKKEN2-20230000000
BAKKEN1-20230000000
BAKKEN12-202232942942349000
  • 38174, conf,-->drl, CLR, LCU Foster FIU 11-28H, no production data; cum --;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20233041321418793580163386616131773
BAKKEN5-2023314488144838429446387063574296
BAKKEN4-20234354027615178611548421273
BAKKEN3-20230000000
BAKKEN2-20230000000
BAKKEN1-20230000000
BAKKEN12-202251871871788000

A Reader Requests Feedback -- RE: The Bakken "Kitchen" -- August 2, 2023

Locator: 45304B. 

This is really cool.

Someone paying very close attention is noting something that might be new in the Bakken.

Two comments from same reader with regard to "Pumped -- The Long Creek Unit" --

  • could someone confirm Continental is now drilling the high TOC lower Bakken shale actually?
  • could anyone confirm if Continental CLR is drilling here in the Lower Bakken shale actually? latest data shows companies start to drill the forbidden high TOC shale kitchen now 

So, if any reader can shed any light on this, it would be much appreciated.

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To Continue

First: a new link has been added to the blog -- the North Dakota Stratigraphic Column.

One can click on the graphic at the link and enlarge it.

If I recall correctly, when we first started talking about the various "Bakken" formations, there were the following:

The Bakken:

  • the upper Bakken
  • the middle Bakken -- shale oil 
  • the lower Bakken

And then the Three Forks:

  • Three Forks first bench -- shale oil 
  • Three Forks second bench -- shale oil 
  • Three Forks third bench -- shale oil 
  • Three Forks fourth bench -- shale oil 

Now, three graphics from this source


If by "kitchen," the reader means the same thing as that noted above, then the quick answer seems to be, "yes, CLR is now drilling the 'kitchen.'"

But, CLR and other operators have been drilling this area since the beginning of the boom.

I'm wondering if the reader is asking about a specific "sub-formation with the Bakken / Three Forks.

I'll start going back to the CLR file reports from LCU wells and see what pops up.

My hunch is that the reader is asking a "deeper" question. No pun intended.

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Miscellaneous

Other screenshots of the ND "strat column":




What A Story -- It Looks Like -- From The Headlines -- That The EIA Simply Made A Major Adjustment -- But If So, The API, Also? August 2, 2023

Locator: 45303OIL. 

Tag: the draw; 17-million-bbl draw; 

This is from "Focus on Fracking," late Sunday night, July 2, 2023, the regular weekly update with a lede that should have gotten my attention --

So, then, several paragraphs into report, in the usual location and usual format, which I will break up into small bites:

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,478,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending July 21st, an average of 107,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that an average of 86,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US. 
So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA for the week ending July 21st appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from storage, from net imports and from oilfield production was 2,415,000 barrels per day less than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. [SAY WHAT?]
To account for that obvious disparity between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just inserted a [ +2,415,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 13 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet in order to make the reported data for the daily supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus suggesting there was an error of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed.... 
Moreover, since last week’s “unaccounted for crude oil” figure was at [+823,000] barrels per day, that means there was a ​1,592,000 barrel per day difference between this week's oil balance sheet error and the EIA's crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week's report are off by that much, and therefore useless... 
However, since most oil traders respond to these weekly EIA reports as if they were accurate, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing, and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it's published, and just as it's watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry...(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil, see this EIA explainer)….(NB: there is also a more recent twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these errors, and what they had hoped to do about it).
I guess that's what they decided to do about -- today in the weekly EIA petroleum report, simply state there was a 17-million-bbl draw. Without comment.

And with a 17-million-bbl draw, WTI drops 2% suggesting "no one" believes this number and that the EIA and the API are simply "reconciling" their spreadsheet, just as we all used to do once a month when we used to reconcile our checkbooks. 

That seems to be beyond the pale, as they say, but then how does one explain almost the same number the API got -- a draw of 15 millions?
 
I thought the API and EIA were independent, but my hunch is they use each other's data to a great extent.

All the folks on social media who follow these numbers very closely noted this, but no one has offered an explanation, plausible or otherwise. 

But if the average change in crude oil in storage is up or down one or two million bbls from week to week, there's no way a 17-million-bbl draw can be reported without an analysis.

I assume RBN Energy is all over this and sometime this month (August, 2023) we'll get a blog discussing this.

Along with that same piece of news -- about the 17-million-bbl draw, did you all note the weekly gasoline demand chart?


This is simply ghastly ... and again, reported, without comment by anyone.

One New Permit; WTI Drops Back Below $80; Recession Talk Back On The Table -- August 2, 2023

Locator: 45302B.

WTI: $79.69.

One new permit, #40090.

  • Operator: CLR
  • Field: Beaver Lodge (Williams)
  • Comments: 
    • CLR has a permit for a Gibb well, SESE 24-156-95, 
      • to be sited 338 FSL and 300 FL.

Four permits canceled:

  • XTO (3): three Beckert permits, Dunn County;
  • Hess: TI-Larson 157-95-2536H, Williams County;

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 39123, 2,183, CLR, Flint Chips Federal 4-5H, Dunn County;

Gasoline Demand — Plummets — August 2, 2023

Locator: 45300GASOLINE.

Link here.


Largest crude oil decline in history? Certainly in more than forty years. 

“Things” simply don’t add up.

Fortunately, API numbers “agree” with government numbers.

But no one can explain it.

US crude oil supply in days drops below 27 days: now, 26.6 days.

Lowest since December, 2022. Link here.

Price of crude plummets. Price of gasoline surges. 

A Dead Play? August 2, 2023

Locator: 45299OIL.

Link here. XOM mulls walking away from its $10 billion investment. Today.


The Vaca Muerta is followed here.

Also, here, from Rystad Energy, back on May 31, 2023:

India — Re-Thinking Their Future — August 2, 2023

Locator: 45298INDIA.

Link here.

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An Abundance Of Riches



Wheat Prices — Another Meme — August 2, 2023

Locator: 45296ECON.

Link here.

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Waffle Recipe



Wall Street Movers And Shakers Decide This Is The Week -- August 2, 2023

Locator: 452945INV.

I guess the movers and shakers decided this week would be the week.


I guess this is the Great Sell-Off everyone was predicting, and the recession will officially commence next week. 

To be clear: there will be a recession.

Link here. A must-read.

A great, great buying opportunity.

Weekly EIA petroleum report, link here:
  • US crude oil in storage decreased by an amount not seen in over forty years: 17 million bbls.
  • so, what did the price of oil do? It dropped 2%, and fell below $80.
  • US crude oil in storage is now a whopping one percent below the five-year average, and, of course, the Biden administration drained the SPR last year for political reasons and has no intention of refilling it, and what did the price of oil do? It dropped 2%, and fell below $80.

Tell me again, the SPR is important to the price of gasoline and/or the price of oil. LOL.

I thought crude oil inventories would correlate -- directly -- with the price of oil but that's apparently not true either.

The EIA data is unlikely to be inaccurate or an error: the API said the same thing yesterday, reporting a 15-million-bbl draw.

Expectations: a 900,000-bbl draw.

How could analysts be so far off.

And has there been any explanation for a 15-million-bbl draw. Where did all that oil go? Or was it never produced in the first place?

Refiners were operating at 92.7% of their capacity, pretty much "petal to the metal," but not quite.

US crude imports, yawn, but if you need to know, down about 2.3% y/y. Usually the number comes in around 1%.

Gasoline inventories increased slightly but are still 6% below the five-year average.

Distillate fuel decreased slightly and remain 15% below the five-year average.

This is the biggie: after a flat week in the last report, this week's report suggested that jet fuel supplied was  up a fairly amazing 7%.

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The Granddaughters Visiting Kentucky



RACE -- August 2, 2023

Locator: 45294INV.

And, yes, I'm building a position for the long term.

Link here. The boys will thank me in thirty years and wonder what the heck Grandpa was thinking. LOL.

The three biggest sellers in our neck of the woods:

  • Tesla
  • Jeep
  • Ferrari / Lamborghini

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Barron's
July 31, 2023 

Cover: Disney 

Big Pharma: these five drugs made up 15% of the $215 billion Medicare Part D spent on prescription drugs in 2021.
 

Obsession-recession:


 Tech:


Interview with Cathie Wood, ARK:
  • riding high again; huge gains in Tesla, Coinbase Global, Roku
    • Tesla price target: $2,000
    • likes Tesla's new robotaxi business; values EBITDA greater than Apple's
  • NVDA: recently sold it; price got quite lofty
  • cryptocurrency: remains bullish; see three revolutions
    • flight to safety when regional banks started to fail: Bitcoin
    • decentralized finance (DeFi): will be Ethereum-based
    • digital property rights, NFT -- nonfungible tokens or the metaverse;
  • beneficiaries of AI
    • Twilio
    • Teladoc
  • EVTOLs: electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles
  • switch: sold Illumina and bought a much PacBio as they could
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The Book Club

Today it's geometry for Sophia.

Girls Get Curves: Geometry Takes Shape, Danica McKellar, c. 2012.


Way too much verbiage.

Some cute ways to remember things, but too much chaff to get to the kernels.

Don't recommend.

There must be better books.

So, that was a bust.

We move on. And here it is. Fascinating. I don't like the style of writing, but ....

The Doomsday Calculation: How An Equation That Predicts The Future Is Transforming Everything We Know About Life And The Universe, William Poundstone, c. 2019.

Is Anyone Paying Attention -- At 3.9 -- Very, Very Close To A Four-Handle -- August 2, 2023

Locator: 45293ECON.

Recession obsession: just to be clear -- we all agree -- there will be a recession.

Quick: name a country with a higher GDP forecast than the US for 3Q23 (period, July - Sept, 2023). And in which you would want to live.

GDPNow, link here.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $79.53.

Thursday, August 3, 2023: 4 for the month; 206 for the quarter, 461 for the year
39540, conf, WPX, Two Shields Butte 16-8-7-13H3U, 

Wednesday, August 2, 2023: 3 for the month; 205 for the quarter, 460 for the year
39473, conf, Ovintiv USA, Newman 150-97-21-16-14H,
39436, conf, Eagle Operating, V-M 5-7,
39157, conf, CLR, Kiefel 4-36H,

RBN Energy: "NYMEX WTI" is not WTI -- the battle over crude oil quality. Archived.

CME’s NYMEX light sweet crude oil contract in Cushing, OK, is not West Texas Intermediate — WTI. Instead, it is Domestic Sweet — commonly referred to as DSW — with quality specifications that are broader and generally inferior to Midland-sourced WTI. In fact, pristine Midland WTI delivered to Cushing sells at a reasonably healthy premium to DSW. That difference in specs, and the fact that the quality of DSW is considerably more variable than straight-as-an-arrow Midland WTI, makes most purchasers of exported U.S. crude (and many domestic refiners too) strongly prefer the more quality-consistent Midland WTI grade. For that reason, when Platts set out to allow U.S. light crude to be delivered as Brent, it said that only Midland WTI will qualify. Consequently, a marketer cannot take delivery of a NYMEX-quality barrel at Cushing, pipe it down to the Gulf Coast, and deliver it to a dock for export if the ultimate destination of that barrel is to be reflected in the Brent price assessment. The implication? There are now effectively two U.S. crude oil benchmark grades, each of which is valued differently, priced differently and used by different markets. Is this a big deal for the valuation mechanisms for U.S. crude oils, or just a minor quirk in oil-market nomenclature? We’ll explore that question in today’s RBN blog.

Disclaimer -- Again -- Briefly

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Anticipation -- August 2, 2023

Locator: 45292INV.
 
It's hard to believe we're entering the summer doldrums.

My favorite chart:

Hold that thought.

Inevitable, link here:


FOMO, link here:


S&P 500:
  • currently at 4,574;
  • forecast was 4,400 for year-end;
  • now, 4,900
    • an 11-percent increase from previous forecast
    • a 7-percent increase from 4,574 (current read)