Preliminary: Stories That "Concern" Me -- IN PROGRESS -- July 10, 2023

Stories I'm "following."

1. Most used social medial platforms.

2. Saudi foreign exchange reserves. Link here. May data should be out by now. April, 2023, data was reported before/around/about June 4, 2023. 

3. Bud Lite / Modelo.

4. DIS, Bob Iger: how bad will it get? Why is no one reporting on this (DIS)?

• Iger: returned to Disney, November 20, 2022
• earnings scheduled to be reported August 9, 2023 
• March, 2023: 93 cents; $21.82 billion
• June, 2023e: $1.06; $22.62 billion
• June 2022: $1.09; $21.50 billion
  

5. Notable presidential speeches:

• Richard Nixon's resignation speech: August 8, 1974.
• LBJ, "will not run for re-election" speech: March 31, 1968.

6. Presidents and foreign policy.

7. Bakhmut, Ukraine.

• history, including most recent events through June 4, 2023
• weapons, armament shortage

That should keep me busy for awhile.

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Most Used Social Media Platforms

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Saudi

Seems to have been reported "late," but finally reported overnight, July 12, 2023:

Link here.

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Bud Lite / Modelo

Folks forget: Modelo is owned by Bud. Yes, I know that, in the US, Modelo is sold by Cconstellation Brands. Bud's big market: overseas, not the US.

 

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DIS

See this link.

July 12, 2023:

• Bob Iger to stay until 2026, two years longer than expected. 

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Notable Presidential Speeches

Tipping point?

• Ukraine slip --
• cocaine in White House --
• the media turns -- The Atlantic -- Joe needs to step aside
• the polls --
• will he snap?
  
• time to pounce?
• Pelosi - Newsom --
  

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Presidents and Foreign Policy

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Bakhmut, Ukraine

No New Oil & Gas Permits -- Two Permits Renewed -- July 10, 2023

Locator: 45067B.

Active rigs: 36.

WTI: $73.16.

One permit:

• 40027: Coteau 6, Dakota Gasification Company, Mercer County; SESW 11-145-88

Two permits renewed:

• Formentera Operations: an Olva permit and a Marshall permit, Skjermo, Divide County;

Holy Mackerel! Does This Look Like A Recession? GDPNow: Surges -- 2.3% -- July 10, 2023

Locator: 45066ECON.

Bidenomics?

Link here.

Does This Look Like A Recession? Americans And Amazon -- July 10, 2023

Locator: 45065AMZN. 

Link here. 

Interesting graphics but I'm not sure what they tell me, if anything.

If the difference is between $60 at the lowest and $120 at the highest, the CPAs would tell me the percent is 100% greater for one group, or a whopping doubling of one group over another. But the delta -- $60 -- $2 / day -- least expensive brew at Starbucks here in north Texas: $2.85.

Wow, Wow, Wow -- Supports My Thesis Re: Inflation, Supply & Demand, The Fed, JPow, And Raising Rates -- July 10, 2023

Locator: 45064ECON.  

My thesis here.

Link here.

So, suppliers trying to stop the downward supply-chain-death spiral are continually and consistently clobbered by the Fed's capriciousness. 

This is not bidenomics causing "stayflation," it's

• "greedflation"; and,
• the Fed's obsession with 2% inflation and too many young people working.

Apple, Inc., Reports August 3, 2023

Locator: 45063AAPL. 

Link here.

Link here. 

Rumor:

Right On Cue -- EPD -- Whoo-Hoo! July 10, 2023

Locator: 45062INV.
Locator: 45062DIV. 

WOW, WOW, WOW -- right on cue.

From July 6, 2023:

Raises its dividend by a penny. Whoo-hoo.

Most recent dividend increase yet to be posted:

Screenshots: 2% just about covers the increase in our rent for the next year.

New Freightliner In The Wild -- July 10, 2023

Locator: 45061TRUCKS. 

Bike ride on way to library, a brand new Freightliner -- probably out of Portland, OR.

Foxconn Playing Hardball With Lordstown, India -- July 10, 2023

Locator: 45060TECH.

Some folks just don't under the business concept of "win-win."

From Reuters today:

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The Book Club

China's First Emperor and his Terracotta Warriors, Frances Wood, c. 2007. 931WOO.

Notes.

Frances Wood is the head of the Chinese department at the British Library. 

Many years ago, we were fortunate enough to see the terracotta warriors on tour, in London.

Introduction

China's first emperor, 259 - 210 BC.

Terracotta warriors discovered, 1974:

• while drilling a well
• Xiyang village
• Yanzhai rural commune
• Lintong county
• Shaanxi province

Xiyang village, Yanzhai rural commune, Shaanxi province:

First emperor:

• a Chinese Hitler
• b. 259 BCE
• eldest son / heir of King of Qin ("chin")
• founder of Imperial China
• father of the imperial bureaucracy that governed vast territories for 2,000 years 
• he became a tyrannical bogeyman, the enemy of intellectual life and historic culture

From here go to notes.

Oil Is Moving -- July 10, 2023

Locator: 45059OIL.

WTI:

• oil is moving
• WTI: just crossed $74
• Brent: trending toward $79
• Bakken proxy: $78.92
  
• but shares in oil companies are moving up across the board
• DVN: paying 9.15%

The market: link here, also --  and also, here:

WTI -- Investing -- Operator, Please Connect Me To 1982 -- July 10, 2023

Locator: 45058INV.

WTI:

• oil is down a bit this morning.
• but shares in oil companies are moving up across the board
• DVN: paying 9.15%

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For The Archives
For My Executor

Executor

• as per my will, present to December 31, 2033
• January 1, 2034 -> Sophia

Investing: again, for newbies, my investing --

• rolling 30-year horizon; no trading 
• review plan annually; tweak as often as monthly (percent in each bucket)
• Peter Lynch principle: will pare holdings to twenty stocks (this "rule" added in 2023 in major review of plan)
  
• focus on dividends
• never sell unless a very, very good reason
• sales are done not as trades per se but when I realize a mistake was made, or for other reasons as stated below
  
• do not hold cash; park all cash in high-dividend blue chip stocks
  
• generally T, but also VZ
  
• SCHD
  
• invest all new money twice a month
• second week of each month
• fourth week of each month
• select from a finite group of stocks in various buckets
• big cap, dividend paying: 40%
• big cap, non-dividend paying: 5%
• by exception, generally BRK; AAPL (the dividend is so low, it's in my non-dividend bucket): 10%
• tech: 20%; 
• the big seven, plus copper
  
• Daimler: 5%
• energy (oil): 0%
• no bonds: SRE, utilities, pipelines, major oils, BRK --- take place of bonds in my portfolio
  
• in flux: 20% -- after dropping oil from any new money, I honestly am at a loss in what new sector / bucket to move into 
• Big Pharma? 
• any new oil purchases: by exception only
• consolidating all oil holdings into three companies
• most recent purchases (past two weeks), in no particular order:
• WBA, DTRUY, DE, NVDA, TSM, UNP, MSFT, SWKS, DVN, QCOM
• no sales in past several years, with two exceptions: 
• "parked cash" in T and/or VZ, which I hardly consider sales; and
• sold TTE, Hess and moving that cash into DVN -- obviously these are trades but done simply to consolidate "oil" holdings; nothing changed in the big picture.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

So, let's see if I can get to twenty:

• BRK (1)
• AAPL (1)
• oil: three majors, one Bakken, one mover (5)
• tech, with copper (9)
• utilities, pipelines (5)

21.

That's a goal.

I'm nowhere near that (21), having "collected" holdings since 1984 -- 39 years of investing? Wow. 

Never look back, except to learn from mistakes.

Nothing in stone.

Rules are made to be broken.

Read, read, read.

Never remove my investing filter.

Real estate: interestingly, I think there's a way to invest in property even for folks like me. Might discuss later.

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From Barron's Yesterday

 

This is an interesting thought: could Warren Buffett swoop in and "steal" MMP out from under OKE? Could be a win-win-win:

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1982

Hindsight is 20/20. But I'm nearly going blind.

"Operator, connect me ..."  LOL.

Link here.

Fisker -- Drops On Capital Raise -- July 10, 2023

Locator: 45057EVS.

Fisker: link here. Dropped 1.5% at the open. I think Barron's got ahead of its headlights.

Inflation -- Recession -- Investors Take Note -- July 10, 2023

Locator: 45058ECON.

Updates

Later, 11:46 a.m., a picture is worth 10,000 words. It's amazing what one sees when wearing investment lenses.

Original Post 

Rent: link here. 

She gets it: link here. Absolutely correct.

July 10, 2023, link here

Big Week Coming Up -- July 10, 2023

Locator: 45057ECON.

The 2023 recession; most-talked about recession, most-predicted recession -- if the numbers ..
link here.

Incredibly good numbers, if they come in as forecast (or better)! Link here.

The rally is not just about AI any more, link here:

The rally in the rear view mirror, link here:

July 10, 2023, link here:

Six Wells Coming Off Confidential List Over The Weekend -- July 10, 2023

Locator: 45056B.

Fisker: link here.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: it's Monday. WTI is down. WTI is always down on Monday. $73.31.

Tuesday, July 11, 2023: 60 for the month; 168 for the quarter, 423 for the year
37404, conf, Liberty Resources, Esther 158-93-28-33-20MBH,
37364, conf, Liberty Resources, Albertson 158-93-27-34-1MBH,

Monday, July 10, 2023: 58 for the month; 166 for the quarter, 421 for the year
39175, conf, CLR, Clyde Hauge 4-13H,
38944, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 5-32-29H,

Sunday, July 9, 2023: 56 for the month; 164 for the quarter, 419 for the year
39442, conf,  Kraken, Orbit 24-13-12 5H,
39176, conf, CLR, Clyde Hauge 5-13H,

Saturday, July 8, 2023: 54 for the month; 162 for the quarter, 417 for the year
39441, conf, Kraken, Orbit 24-13-12 4H,
39178, conf, CLR, Clyde Hauge 6-13H, 

RBN Energy: FERC crude oil pipeline tariffs jump again, with differing impacts on customers.

When the calendar flipped from June to July, it did more than just close the book on the first half of 2023, it also allowed some oil pipelines regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to increase their rates by more than 13%. Yes, you read that correctly. This is the largest increase in the index rate since FERC initiated its current methodology in 1992 and follows last year’s increase of almost 9%. In today’s RBN blog, we look at what’s going on with index rates at FERC and what it means for producers and shippers alike.

Let’s start with some background. As we explained in Now Here You Go Again, rate indexing was part of FERC’s response to congressional direction in the Energy Policy Act of 1992 to simplify the regulation of oil pipeline rates. (If you need a refresher on how indexing works, it would be helpful to read that blog.) Ever since FERC took over the regulation of oil pipeline rates from the Interstate Commerce Commission in 1977, the system of regulation had been burdensome and complicated. So, while FERC kept some of the onerous stuff like full cost-of-service reviews for certain situations (new services and company-specific complaints, primarily), the industry norm became indexing. These days, the vast majority of all liquids-pipeline rates are capped based on the index, meaning that in markets where competition doesn’t push the rates lower than the cap, the indexed rate is what’s really charged. (It’s also worth noting that while index rates have increased more drastically recently, they have moved up and down over the past 10 years, as shown in Figure 1.)

Figure 1. Annual Changes in Liquids Pipeline Index. Source: FERC

Amazon Prime Days -- Tuesday, Wednesday This Week -- Starts Tomorrow -- July 10, 2023

Locator: 45055AMZN.
Locator: 45055AAPL.

Link here.