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Friday, July 7, 2023

Amazon Factoid -- July 7, 2023

Locator: 45934AMZN. 

With my Amazon Prime credit card I get cash back, which varies depending where the credit card is used.

I get all my books "free" using "cash back" from Amazon Prime.

I use "cash back" occasionally for other purchases.

I noticed tonight that cash in my "cash back" account is now twice the annual Amazon Prime membership fee.  

The #1 streaming media I use: Amazon Prime Video.

Week 27: July 3 , 2023 -- July 9, 2023

Locator: 45933B. 

Top story:

  • Williston Basin in the middle of another mini-boom. Link here.
  • The stock market holds, Friday, July7, 2023
  • mountain-out-of-a-mole-hill: white powder in White House (as if this is the first time ever)

Top international non-energy story:

  • Russian-Ukraine war continues but it seems "no one" knows.
    • Prigozhin shows up in Moscow; collects his $100 million.
    • Putin: a corporate takeover of The Wagner Group
  • META: releases Threads to "take on" twitter

Top international energy story:

  • Tesla: "owns" the EV supercharger story: Mercedes the latest to partner with Tesla

Top national non-energy story:

Top national energy story

  • WTI breaks $73 at end of week, trends toward $74.
  • NE ISO comes close to failing due to demand; price spikes to $2,700 / MWh.
  • Texas grid holds: easily.
Focus on fracking: most recent edition.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

  • #1 among US states: GDP, growth 1Q23.

Top North Dakota energy story:


Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

Bakken economy: North Dakota's 1Q23 GDP growth: #1 in the nation.

Commentary:

Entertainment: Harrison Ford's Indiana Jones

It Gets Tedious --- July 7, 2023

Locator: 45932ECON. 

Market today, about an hour before the close:

WTI: trading at $73.86!

For those surprised by this turn of events, I'll explain this later. Two things happened early this morning. A reader predicted this earlier this week.

A few of my favorites:



Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source

And then we have this article, link here:


It gets tedious.

So, a Yahoo!Finance editor is buying $120-tennis shoes, and I'm buying $50-DVN, well off its highs.  The kids will get a few more shares of Devon.

I doubt if the tennis shoes will mean much 3 years from now, much less 30 years from now.

Who Was At The Top? Three Guesses And First Two Don't Count -- 1Q23 GDP Growth Data By State

Locator: 45931ECON. 

Link here.

1Q23 GDP growth and personal income growth by state.


Personal income: Nebraska, 11.1, beat North Dakota, 11.0, because Warren Buffett resides in Omaha, NE.

 
 

FRED: link here.

Back-of-the envelope:

  • 4Q22 - 1Q23: 12.4% growth:
  • $73,267 per capita, 2022
  • 1.124 * 73267 = 82,352
  • 1Q20e = 59199
  • (82,352-59199)/59199 = 39.1% growth (1Q20 - 1Q23)

GDP per capita, link here.

Construction spending per capita:

  • North Dakota: at about $2,600 per capita trends toward 3X that of California;
  • California: at about $1,100 per capita
  • based on most recent data easily available to an armchair blogger.
  • Texas? About $1,333 using same sources.
  • Michigan, where the cars are made? About $800 per capita.
  • no links. I'll let folks use their own sources.

With numbers like these, I have no idea why North Dakota still has a state income tax. Texas has not state income tax, just saying. 

Three New Permits -- July 7, 2023

Locator: 45930B. 

WTI: just shy of $74. Range between $73.50 and $73.90.

Active rigs: 36.

Three new permits, #40024 - #40026, inclusive:

  • Operators: MRO (2); Oasis
  • Fields: Killdeer (Dunn County); Todd (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Oasis has a permit for a Peters Road Federal well, lot 8 sectioi 30-154-100;
      • to be sited 853 FL and 276 FWL;
    • MRO has permits for a McKay well and a Dunrud well, NENW 13-145-95, 
      • one to be sited 400 FNL and 1440 FWL; 
      • the other to be sited 400 FNL and 1480 FWL;

Two permits canceled:

  • Ovintiv: a Bernice permit and a Barracuda permit, both in McKenzie County

Ten wells temporarily abandoned well plugged:

  • Oasis: 7, McKenzie and Mountrail counties
  • Whiting: 3, Williams County

Blame It On The Bossa Nova -- NE ISO Grid Challenged When Not Enough Solar Power -- July 7, 2023

Locator: 45929GRID. 

This will be the feature story today. This was. posted earlier. Background is down below, keep scrolling.

ISO NE: spot prices jump to $2,700 / MWh while cooking dinner. It appears "briefly" is defined as less than four hours in New England.


Not a problem unless one is doing brain surgery at Mass General and the emergency power fueled by diesel, of course, doesn't kick in immediately.

When you absolutely, positively need electricity --- go with diesel ... or Russian crude oil as they do in New England.

I can't make this stuff up.

Blame it on Canada.

***************************
Background

Pending.

Links here.

  • extra power was needed earlier this week to keep the ISO NE grid from failing and bringing down the entire US grid, except of course, Texas, whose ERCOT ISO system walls itself off from the rest of the US, for this very reason (and a few other reasons, LOL), link here, Concord Monitor, July 6, 2023,
  • new transmission lines key to clean energy future, Commonwealth Magazine, April 13, 2023.
  • New Hampshire NPR, July 5, 2023: eight NE states need Federal help building transmission lines.

It's always interesting to see how faux environmentalists fail to show how expensive electricity becomes when the grid comes close to failing due to lack of wind or sun. LOL. 

By the way, how's that solar energy going to work out when the Biden administration blocks the sun's rays from reaching the US?

LOL.

I can't make this stuff up.

Screenshots from the links:



And here's the problem:

Brutal heat combined with a sudden shortfall in imported electricity caused the operators of New England’s power grid to fire up extra generators for a half hour on Wednesday, July 5, 2023.
The shortfall in electricity production versus demand, known as a capacity deficiency, began shortly after 6 p.m. as a “transmission equipment failure significantly reduced imported electricity coming to New England.” The six-state region can import or export electricity from New York, Quebec and New Brunswick as needed; details of the failure were not available Thursday
Demand for electricity production by power plants often spikes at around 6 p.m. on a summer weekday because people turn on air conditioning as they get home from work and the region’s solar production – which on a sunny afternoon now generates three times as much electricity as Seabrook Station nuclear plant – begins to wind down.

Someday These Three Will Make Up My Entire Portfolio -- July 7, 2023

Locator: 45928INV. 

WTI: trading at $73.86!

For those surprised by this turn of events, I'll explain this later. Two things happened early this morning. A reader predicted this earlier this week.

Here goes.

  • one-third: energy
  • one-third: AI
  • one-third: fashion, information, communication, and spatial computing


Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

For The Grandchildren: Never Stop Reading -- July 7, 2023

Locator: 45927ARCH. 

Wow, what a surprise.

This is going to be a great book.

To the grandchildren: never stop reading. 

************************
Book Club

Again: The Story of the Jews, Volume 1, Finding the Words, 1000BC -- 1492 AD, Simon Schama, c. 2013. 909SCH.

Notes here.

Mercedes Partners With Tesla -- Supercharger Plug -- At $60,000, Fisker Ocean Priced For All Americans -- July 7, 2023

Locator: 45926AUTOS. 

Three from Reuters today:




Fisker misses?




************************
Movie Club

The movies that demand attention:

The movies:

  • Casablanca
  • Birdman
  • Asteroid City
  • Citizen Kane
  • Lost in Translation
  • Midnight in Paris
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Coen Bros: almost all
  • Hitchcock: several
  • Sunset Blvd 

************************
Book Club

Again: The Story of the Jews, Volume 1, Finding the Words, 1000BC -- 1492 AD, Simon Schama, c. 2013. 909SCH.

Notes here.

************************
Monthly Raffle

Rules:

  • family members: 11
  • tickets: $4 each
  • each family member gets two ticks ($8 each)
  • no one can "win" twice in a row
  • a third win in a row: re-draw and new winner doubles the winnings ($150)
  • if the patriarch's name is pulled:re-draw and new winner doubles the winnings ($100)
  • total: $88 (entire lot paid for by patriarch -- LOL -- that's me)
  • winner, winner, chicken dinner: $75
  • Sophia: $13 for running the raffle

Embarrassing! Absolutely Embarrassing -- July 7, 2023

Locator: 45925AUTOS. 

Hyundai overtakes GM: link here:

A Micro-Surge? July 7, 2023

Locator: 45924WTI. 

We mentioned this on the blog yesterday. Here's the graphic:

WTI, today: $72.58.

Wall Street darling:

Doesn't Look Like A Recession To Me -- July 7, 2023

Locator: 45923GDP. 

GDPNow, link here:

Are investors in a "Goldilocks" environment, or what?

My Sentiments Exactly -- July 7, 2023

Locator: 45921WTI.  

WTI; continues to struggle. Got through $70, but can't get past $72.

  • word on the street: energy companies won't get "second wind" until oil above $75
  • in fact, for real gains, need to see oil above $80

Word on the street, link here

Wow, Already Friday -- And The Texas Grid Held Once Again -- Can't Say The Same For NE ISO -- July 7, 2023

Locator: 45920GRID.    

ISO NE: spot prices jump to $2,700 / MWh while cooking dinner. It appears "briefly" is defined as less than four hours in New England.


Not a problem unless one is doing brain surgery at Mass General and the emergency power fueled by diesel, of course, doesn't kick in immediately.

When you absolutely, positively need electricity --- go with diesel ... or Russian crude oil as they do in New England.

I can't make this stuff up.

Blame it on Canada.

***********************
Trippy Snow White

Link here.

Max Fleischer's trippy version of "Snow White" from 1933 remains a fascinating and bizarre piece of animation history. In this short Betty Boop cartoon, Fleischer and his team condensed and twisted the classic Snow White tale, taking viewers on a surreal journey that defies expectations.
One of the standout moments in the cartoon is the inclusion of Cab Calloway, a renowned jazz singer of the time. In the middle of the animated film, Calloway appears and performs the hauntingly beautiful "St. James Infirmary Blues." The scene is a rare live-action segment, originally from another cartoon of the era titled "Minnie the Moocher," which was another iconic song associated with Calloway.
Interestingly, the footage and music used in the beginning of "Minnie the Moocher" are clearly the same recording as the song "St. James Infirmary Blues" featured in the Betty Boop cartoon. In a clever editing move, the two pieces of audio are seamlessly joined together, creating a seamless transition between the two cartoons.
Calloway's appearance in the cartoon is truly mesmerizing. He begins by singing the tune as Koko the Clown, a character created by Fleischer, and then undergoes a transformation into a ghostly figure. The animation beautifully captures Calloway's distinctive enunciation and signature dance moves, accompanied by a barrage of wild and imaginative visuals.

More at the link, including the video.

Bullet Train Update -- Nature Raining On Its Parade -- July 7, 2023

Locator: 45919CA.   

See these two recent posts:

Now, today, headline and feature story from The LA Times:

NBC News today:


The NBC News article does not mention the bullet train, an inconvenient truth, and the writer seems to suggest this is a "once-in-a century" phenomenon. In fact, it happens on a regular basis.

Wow, Already Friday -- And The Texas Grid Held Once Again -- Five Wells Coming Off Confidential This Weekend -- July 7, 2023

Locator: 45918TECH.  

Samsung: 2Q23 profits plunge 96% -- estimate.

China ban on metals: Peter Zeihan not concerned. Nor am I but EV manufacturers will blame China for their problems.

WTI; continues to struggle. Got through $70, but can't get past $72.

  • word on the street: energy companies won't get "second wind" until oil above $75
  • in fact, for real gains, need to see oil above $80

Rigs don't matter: EQT sets record. "18K in 48 hours."

************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $71.76.

Sunday, July 9, 2023: 56 for the month; 164 for the quarter, 419 for the year
39442, conf,  Kraken, Orbit 24-13-12 5H,
39176, conf, CLR, Clyde Hauge 5-13H,

Saturday, July 8, 2023: 54 for the month; 162 for the quarter, 417 for the year
39441, conf, Kraken, Orbit 24-13-12 4H,
39178, conf, CLR, Clyde Hauge 6-13H,

Friday, July 7, 2023: 52 for the month; 160 for the quarter, 415 for the year
39440, conf, Kraken, Orbit 24-13-12 3TFH,

 

RBN Energy: a decade after the "big bang," are RIN prices headed for a crash?

The Renewable Identification Number (RIN) has long served as the tool used to force renewable fuels like ethanol and soybean oil into the U.S. gasoline and diesel supply. A creation of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), RINs act as a subsidy that enables the production of renewable fuels that would not otherwise be economically justified. RIN prices are set by the usual workings of supply and demand, but chatter has bubbled up recently in the renewable fuels ecosystem that prices for a particular variety of RIN could be headed for a crash. In today’s RBN blog, we explain what’s behind the talk about RIN prices.

Let's Talk EVs -- TeslaBoomerPapa -- July 7 2023

Locator: 45917AUTOS.  

Link here.

 

Meanwhile, Hyundai overtakes GM: link here: