Locator: 44835AAPL.
Earlier, this post, question. Now, the answer (scroll down).
At the moment:
There's only question. It's in the table below. Who can spot it? Actually two questions, but one is a derivative of the other.
The answer.
Thursday, June 29, 2023
Answer To The Pop Quiz -- June 29, 2023
There's only question. It's in the table below. Who can spot it? Actually two questions, but one is a derivative of the other.
Crescent Point Energy With Four New Permits; Six Permits Renewed -- June 29, 2023
Locator: 44835B.
AAPL: after-hours -- $190+ for AAPL.
- Citi sees 27% AAPL upside, link here.
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs; 36.
WTI: $69.78,
Four new permits, #40010 - #40013, inclusive:
- Operator: Crescent Point Energy
- Field: Blue Ridge (Williams); Winner (Williams)
- Comments:
- CPE has permits for four wells (Campbell, Manchuk, Holmes, and Chase Doublas); lot 4 section 5-158-1000; SENE 30-159-100; SESE 7-158-100; and, NWNW 29-159-100;
- to be sited 620 FNL and between 911 FWL and 1011 FWL
Six permits renewed:
- XTO (5): Wolff Federal; North Fork, McKenzie
- Ovintiv: Clear Creek Federal, Westberg, McKenzie
Another Look At The GDP Number For 1Q23 -- June 29, 2023
... but before I go, re-reading the CNBC summary of the 1Q23 GDP report -- that really was a spectacular report by any measure.
Locator: 44834ECON.
Updates
Later, 6:24 p.m. CT: the more I look at this report, the better it looks. From 1.3% to 2% -- forecast to actual -- considering the environment -- remember, Germany is in a recession and the US is in a mild recession (Charlie Munger). In the big scheme of things, some might say this is as good as it gets.
If it had come in greater than 2.5% the conspiracy theorists would have come out in droves, and anything less than a 2-handle would have been ... uneventful.
Look at the #1 reason for better numbers: US consumers and global consumers were buying American products and services -- area under the curve and MMF.
A GDP of 2% in this environment -- what more do "you" want? I'm going swimming.
Original Post
One doesn't turn the US economy around on a dime, as they say, but wow, for all the handwringing for the last three months about the economy for the three months prior to that ... wow ... this 2% looks a lot better than "2%."
In fact, round 1.3% (the estimate) to 1% -- the actual GDP was twice that forecast. Mr Biden, taken a bow.
This was from the CNBC summary:
Note, two things not mentioned nor would they be in this report because they are not part of the GDP formula:
- one: house prices came down; the first time anyone can seem to remember that happening (isn't that good when talking about inflation? house prices coming down?).
- two: wages were way down, apparently (isn't that good when talking about inflation?) -- needs to be fact-checked. JPow doesn't want to see folks working and he doesn't want to see wage inflation.
And Americans are apparently spending a lot of money. At least that's what I'm reading.
And look at the change in exports. Isn't that good? I don't know. I guess it's due to a cheap dollar.
Anyway, it feels like Friday and we have yet another day. The Dow was up 269 points.
Suggests to me that some folks saw good news in the CNBC summary.
Oil finished higher (good).
AAPL finished higher (better).
It was reported that Buffett bought more OXY (best). Pulled CVX up $1.32 / share.
************************
The Book Page
Byron's Women, Alexander Larman, c. 2015, 821.7LAR.
From Amazon:
One was the mother who bore him; three were women who adored him; one was the sister he slept with; one was his abused and sodomized wife; one was his legitimate daughter; one was the fruit of his incest; and another was his friend Shelley's wife, who avoided his bed and invented science fiction instead. Nine women and one poet named George Gordon, Lord Byron—mad, bad, and very very dangerous to know. The most flamboyant of the Romantics, he wrote literary bestsellers, he was a satirist of genius, he embodied the Romantic love of liberty (the Greeks revere him as a national hero), he was the prototype of the modern celebrity—and he treated women (and these women in particular) abominably.
Peter Zeihan: China's Demographics -- June 29, 2023
Locator: 44833CHINA.
I don't remember when I was first introduced to Peter Zeihan but it was probably early in 2022.
He has a number of themes which he brings up on a regular basis. His analysis of Chinese demographics is one of those subjects. Today, he talks about it again: "new Chinese demographic data = population collapse."
Off The Net For One Hour, Ten Minutes -- June 29, 2023
Locator: 44832ECON.
Good luck to all.
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The Book Page
Today's book:
Storyteller: The Authorized Biography of Roald Dahl, Donald Sturrock, c. 2010; 823STU.
Today's book:
Letters To Vera, Vladimir Nabokov, Edited And Translated By Olga Voronina and Brian Boyd, c. 2015, 813.54NAB.
Wow, wow, wow. What serendipity. Yesterday I was reading Nabokov's lectures on Russian authors. Today, I stumbled across his "autobiography" told through is letters to his wife, Vera.
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At The Library
It's Over -- Wagner Calls It Quits -- Putin Moves To "Take Wagner's Global Empire" -- June 29, 2023
Locator: 44831RUSSIA.
Did the CIA just "win"? Perhaps the best outcome under the circumstances.
Too early to call it, but this looks like another huge win for Mr Biden.
I've just gotten into my Russian literature phase, starting with Tolstoy. Timing could not have been better.
***********************
Time To Bake Rolls
After a sidebar discussion on baking, a reader sent me this cinnamon roll recipe.
It was my understanding, the reader said it was okay to post. If I'm wrong on that, I will take it down if requested. Until then:
Here is the link to the recipe, from a reader:
-I made a couple of additions, add 1/2 cup raisins to the dough and 1/2 cup chopped pecans to the brown sugar filling.
-When
rolling out the dough I made a 24" stick with marks at 2" and 12",
making it easy to measure out the whole sheet and the 12 pieces. (since I
added the raisins and pecans, I made 14 buns)
-The last batch
I made was in a 20"x12"x3" cast iron pan, much better than glass or
thin metal pan. Or you could use a 12" cast iron fry pan for a 1/2
batch.
-I use an instant read thermometer that has been checked to be accurate with ice water and boiling water.
-Use a flour sifter to coat the dough with a light coating of flour while rolling out the sheet.
-With the cinnamon sugar nut filling, it is easier to spread the butter on the dough and sprinkle with the dry mix.
Takes about 3 hours to make.
Wow, Wow, Wow -- Another One Joins The List -- June 29, 2023
Locator: 44830EVS.
EVs scorecard here.
EV charging here.
The blog posted this story yesterday. Smile.
CNBC is reporting it today, posted "48 minutes ago."
Maybe there's a slight difference between Volvo and Polestar.
What next? The following need to make announcement that they will only have one charging system and it will be the Tesla-designed NACS plug:
- Love's
- Murphy's
- Walmart
- Buc-ee's
- Flying J (Buffett)
- XOM, CVX, BP, Shell - retail service stations.
Let's see who goes first? "Ken, I'll take Buc-ee's for $200."
SCOTUS: Huge Story -- Breaking -- June 29, 2023
Locator: 44829SCOTUS.
Link here.
Apparently 6 - 3.
From the report:
Justice Sonia Sotomayor, in a sharp dissent to the opinion, said, “Today, this Court stands in the way and rolls back decades of precedent and momentous progress.”
Ask yourself, would she have felt this way, if FSU denied admissions to all Blacks, or UND denied admissions to all Native Americans?
On another note, Harvard, UNC, and others can easily find a way around this ruling. They just need to think harder, think differently. Seriously.
Apple -- Anticipation -- June 29, 2023
Locator: 44828AAPL.
At the moment:
There's only question. It's in the table below. Who can spot it? Actually two questions, but one is a derivative of the other.
Holy Mackerel -- This Economy Is On Fire -- Recession? What Recession? -- Consumer Expenditures And The Area Under The Cure -- June 29, 2023
Updates
Later, 12:58 p.m. CT: jobless claims, link here.Wow, it's hard to find this data sometimes.
Later, 12: 53 p.m. CT:
Original Post
Link here. The last estimate from GDPNow (see down below) was a paltry 1.1 -- missing the actual by quite a bit.
A reader suggested to me yesterday that JPow will raise rates by 50 bp in July. I said JPow would either keep rates the same or raise only 25 bp. After this report, JPow will have to raise rates by 25 bp.
50 bp? Possibly.
The reader is right; I am wrong. So, we'll see in July.
The market is about to diverge:
- the Dow will head in one direction;
- NASDAQ in another direction;
- same overall direction, but where one will head ENE (30°), the other will have a NNE heading (60°).
Disclaimer: this is not an investment
site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or
relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have
read here.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
From the linked report:
The U.S. economy showed much stronger-than-expected growth in the first quarter than previously thought.
Gross domestic product increased at a 2% annualized pace for the January-through-March period, up from the previous estimate of 1.3% and ahead of the 1.4% Dow Jones consensus forecast.
This was the third and final estimate for Q1 GDP.
The growth rate was 2.6% in the fourth quarter.
The upward revision helps undercut widespread expectations that the U.S. is heading toward a recession.
According to a summary from the department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, the change came in large part because both consumer expenditures and exports were stronger than previously thought.
Consumer spending, as gauged by personal consumption expenditures, rose 4.2%, the highest quarterly pace since the second quarter of 2021.
At the same time, exports rose 7.8% after falling 3.7% in the fourth quarter of 2022.
There also was some good news on the inflation front. Core PCE prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 4.9% in the period, a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point. The all-times price index increased 3.8%, unchanged from the last estimate.
The area under the curve:
My favorite chart:
This was the last estimate that I captured from "GDPNow" for 1Q23:
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A Musical Interlude
No Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- June 29, 2023
101 Days of Summer
Day 33.
**********************
OXY - Buffett
Link here. A sign of a great investor. Cramer would approve. The art of building a position.
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Back To The Bakken
WTI: $69.40.
Friday, June 30, 2023: 40 for the month; 148 for the quarter, 403 for the year
39423, conf, CLR, Skachhenko Federal 11-3HSL,
38855, conf, Whiting, Littlefield 11-21TFHU;
Thursday, June 29, 2023: 38 for the month; 146 for the quarter, 401 for the year
None.
RBN Energy: iron content in some Permian crude oil affects entire value chain.
With ever-increasing volumes of Permian crude oil being exported and the recent inclusion of WTI Midland in the assessment of Dated Brent prices, the issue of iron content — especially in some Permian-sourced crude — is coming to the fore. This has become such a point of emphasis for exported light sweet crude because many less complex foreign refineries do not have the ability to manage high iron content adequately. Iron content that exceeds desirable levels could have far-reaching repercussions, from sellers facing financial penalties for not meeting the quality specifications to marine terminals being excluded from the Brent assessment if they miss the mark. It’s a complicated issue, with split views on what causes the iron content in a relatively small subset of Permian oil to be concerningly high — and how best to address the matter. In today’s RBN blog, we look at iron content in crude oil, why it matters to refiners, how it affects prices, and what steps the industry is taking to deal with it.
When Iron Man was introduced to the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) in 2008, the character was a revelation to casual superhero fans who may have known of him but relatively little about the character’s potential. Yet, the first Iron Man movie helped jump-start what was arguably the most successful movie franchise in history and Marvel Studios followed up the movie’s success by fleshing out even more previously little-known comics. Similarly, albeit in a totally different ballpark, contaminants in the oil and gas production stream like mercaptans, iron, and sulfur are familiar to those in the industry though perhaps not well-understood. And unlike the heroes of movies, these contaminants have more in common with Ozzy’s Iron Man, filling “victims full of dread.”
Earlier, we discussed some of the sources of mercaptans (naturally occurring contaminants in crude oil and natural gas), the methods used to treat crude oil containing high levels of it, and various approaches midstream companies use to manage or prevent the receipt of the contaminated crude oil. Today, we turn our attention to iron. While other metals such as vanadium and nickel are concerns for heavier crude oil, iron content seems to be a primary challenge for the light crudes produced in the Permian Basin.
Apple -- Most Valuable Brand -- June 29, 2023
A reader sent me the link, thank you.
The "most valuable brands" video: pay attention to the year 2011.
See wiki to see what happened in 2010 - 2011.