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Friday, May 12, 2023

California Budget -- From A Surplus Of $100 Billion To A $35-Billion Deficit -- In One Year -- May 12, 2023

Locator: 44635CA.  

California budget: May revision, an additional $10 billion deficit; link here.

  • 2022 - 2023 May Revision: 
    • $300.6 billion
    • surplus: approximately $100 billion
  • 2023, January budget:
    • $297 billion
    • deficit: $22.5 billion
    • budgetary reserves: $35.6 billion
  • 2023, May, revision:
    • $306.5 billion
    • deficit has grown to $31.5 billion
    • budgetary reserves: $37.3 billion
  • Safety Net Reserve:
    • apparently about $1 billion
    • state will withdraw $450 million which represents about half the funds available within that reserve
  • budget does not forecast a recession, but if there is a recession --
    • revenues could decrease by $40 billion in 2023 - 2024 alone -- due to losses in personal income tax

Note:

Chief among the end-of-April Senate Democrat recommendations was an increase in taxes for the top 0.2 percent of corporations, which the lawmakers said could reverse “the federal Trump Tax cuts for Big Corporations at the state level.” [One needs to ask the question why the governor did not go along with a tax increase on the top 0.2 percent of corporations. Even Warren Buffett has said corporations pay too little in taxes.]
The senators suggested using that revenue to cut taxes for small businesses, renters, lower-income Californians and union workers, as well as implementing spending increases of about $1 billion each for schools, child care and homelessness reductions.
Newsom’s office immediately came out against the proposal, stressing that the governor “cannot support the new tax increases and massive ongoing spending proposed by the Senate,” according to the San Francisco Chronicle. [Sounds like a classic conservative, an endangered species in California, especially in the Bay area.]

Question: why would the governor not go along with an increased tax on the top 0.2 percent of corporations? One word: Tesla. Left California for Texas due to taxes.

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Update

Google doesn't link Fox sites. The URL: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gavin-newsoms-reparations-experiment-backfires-2024-speculation-swirls.

Fascinating article. The most interesting story coming out of California right now has to be the "budget."

The "budget" was interesting without the "reparations" angle, but now the budget story has become very, very interesting on so many levels.

Most importantly, we now have numbers.

California budget surplus in 2022: $100 billion.

California budget deficit in 2023: $35 billion.

California budget in 2024 time frame: $350 billion.

Cost of reparations: $700 billion. 

Bottom line: reparations, spread out over twenty years, no interest, doable. It's like winning the lottery.

$700 billion / 20 = $35 billion.

Suggestion: if California were to go through with this, to include but not limited to several requirements:

  • total outlay capped; first-come, first-served, based on date of application.
  • payout over a minimum of 20 years; no interest; no offset for inflation;
  • payouts do not begin until at least ten years after bond funding approved; 
    • proceeds can go to heirs of deceased applicant beneficiaries; 
  • fully taxed at California's max income bracket, regardless of size of payout; 
    • alternatively, a new tax bracket for this special item at twice the current max bracket
  • applications: 
    • with a $1,000 fee, non-refundable -- to cover the cost of verifying one's history; 
    • application: genealogy documentation; at minimum, an on-line family site such as Ancestry.com; and a copy of a genetic report from a company such as 23andMe.
    • false applications: felony; significant penalty; preparer will share in penalty;
    • all applications posted on website with appropriate security redactions;
      • FBI, IRS has access to all applications with no redactions
  • once approved, recipient must post bond to cover benefits if at some future date, application is found to be inaccurate or fraudulent denying benefits once they started flowing
  • no government employee (included elected positions) eligible for any payout (they wrote the bill); 
  • to be funded by special bond; a ballot initiative; not a question of whether reparations are paid, but the funding mechanism and the guidelines for payout.
  • applicants must send in proof of purchase of one Hasbro Monopoly game and proof that they have donated that said game to charity

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Other Links

"Top One Percent." Old source. Not sure to what extent it remains accurate.


One year ago, April 15, 2022, Los Angeles Times

Week 19: May 8, 2023 -- May 14, 2023

Locator: 44634B.  

Top story:

  • Joe Biden is still president.

Top international non-energy story:

  • Russian-Ukraine war continues; Russia Wagner Group still fighting.
  • Ukraine's counteroffensive to begin? 

Top international energy story


Top national non-energy story:

  • The next banking crisis: depositors pulling their money out to fund money-market funds.
  • Bud: impossible to say how this will end.

Top national energy story:

Focus on fracking: most recent edition.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:


Top North Dakota energy story:


Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Entertainment

My Favorite Chart -- May 12, 2023

Locator: 44633MMF. 

I've seldom seen such superlatives in business articles:


See "my favorite chart" at this post. Provides a bit of background.

Most recent, through March 31, 2023:

Other links:

The Book Page -- May 12, 2023

Locator: 44632BOOKS.  

Banned.

Link here. I don't know the details but am told this book was banned by a high school in Florida. Source: on the 90th anniversary of Germany's book burnings.

Poetry.

Hemingway: the power of the unsaid. A very long essay. Along with Virginia Woolf I once had, in my library, twelve to eighteen books for each: Hemingway and Virginia Woolf. But as we downsized, most of these books have been given to area schools. Years ago I posted a very, very long original piece on Virginia Woolf after typing one of her novels, Mrs Dalloway. It took me six months to type that novel, but I learned a lot. 

Now this (link above). Wow.

This essay may have explained something about Hemingway's writing that no one else has mentioned, at least of which I'm aware.

Typing out Mrs Dalloway, it was apparent that the novel was a prose poem.

Now, from Hemingway's novel, The Big Two-Hearted River.


We can reformat what Hemingway wrote:

As the shadow of the kingfisher
Moved up the stream,
A big trout shot upstream
In a long angle.

Only his shadow marking the angle,
Then lost his shadow as he came through
The surface of the water, caught the sun,
And then, as he went back into the stream.

Under the surface
His shadow seemed to float 
Down the stream with the current,
Unresisting, to his post
Under the bridge,
Where he tightened.

Facing up into the current.

Almost like a haiku in places.

Definitely not as poetic as Virginia Woolf's novel. Mrs Dalloway really could be published in blank verse ... [Note: "UP" is the "upper peninsula" in Michigan.]

It turns out that Hemingway did not fish in the Big-Hearted River. He fished in the Fox River or one of its branches.

From Hemingway himself:

On another note, I found the reference to "shell shock" or PTDS interesting, as noted in the excerpt above.

See this link. Also, here.

"Beat" and "beat to the wide."

See also "beat generation."

Reading again.

Up the Down Staircase.

Hard copy on Amazon: $121.

Yes, $121. Not a typo.

First published 1964. On the NYTimes best seller list for 64 weeks.

I thought I first read this book in middle school, but that would have been impossible. So, it must have been in my freshman or sophomore year in high school. Through Pluto TV or some such streaming service -- yes, it was Pluto TV -- I was watching "The Fugitive" and Sandy Dennis was in the episode, and from there I was eventually back to the book. So I ordered a copy two days ago and got it today.

Of all things, it's a "galley bound -- not for sale" edition, about $20 with tax. Wow. I'll read it and then give it to one of Sophia's teacher for this summer's beach reading.

I can't recommend it but for me it brings back great memories.

Director's Cut -- March, 2023

Locator: 44631B.

Bakken

Director's Cut, February data, released today: link here. Disclaimer applies.

March, 2023:

  • oil: 1,122,693 bopd
  • natural gas: 3,050,892 mcf/day; 95% capture
    • natural gas all-time high, 9/22: 3,175,779
  • DUCs and wells off-line for operational reasons tracked here;

 

Locator: 44630ECON.

Could this be what really cools the economy?

Link here

Be careful when "interpreting" the last slide below:





Amazon Prime Video -- NFL TNF -- May 12, 2023

Locator: 44628NFL.

Thursday night football -- Amazon Prime Video.

Week 1: Detroit Lions vs KC Chiefs -- must watch TV.

Week 2: Vikings vs Philadelphia.

Week 3: New York Giants vs San Francisco 49ers.

Week 4: Detroit Lions vs Green Bay.

Week 5: Chicago vs Washington Commanders.

Week 6: Denver vs KC Chiefs -- must watch TV.

Week 7: JAX vs NO.

Week 8: Tampa Bay vs Buffalo.

Week 9: Tennessee vs Pittsburgh.

Week 10: CAR vs Chicago.

Week 11: Bengals vs Ravens.

Week12, Thanksgiving:

  • Green Bay vs Detroit Lions -- FOX.
  • Washington Commanders vs Them Cowboys -- CBS.
  • San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle --NBC.
  • MIA vs New York Jets -- must watch TV -- Amazon Prime Video -- Friday.

Week 13: Seattle vs Them Cowboys.

Week 14: New England vs Pittsburgh.

Week 15: Chargers vs Las Vegas.

Week 16: NO vs Rams.

Week 17: New York Jets vs Browns -- must watch TV.

Week 18: not yet scheduled.

Featured City Of The Day: Corpus Christi, Texas -- May 12, 2023

Locator: 44627TX. 

A reader prompted this:

Corpus Christi is the "Rodney Dangerfield" city of Texas. It simply gets no respect.

One of the faces on Texas "Mount Rushmore" -- if it ever gets built -- would be the What-A-Burger, A-frame.

Also, to make the Texas "Mount Rushmore":

Third on the list: Padre Island, and bird watching.

Rounding out the list, Farrah Fawcett, a graduate of Corpus Christi's Ray High School. Photo unavailable.

Cross Timbers, Palo Pinto, Land Forms, KVLY-TV And All That Is Beyond The Pale -- Today's Geography Lesson -- May 12, 2023

Locator: 44626GEO. 

Link here.

Our middle granddaughter attended Cross Timbers Middle School in Grapevine, TX. I never thought about "Cross Timbers" until seeing the WPX Palo Pinto wells in the Bakken.

 
The highest these "mountains" get is about 1,500 feet. To put that in perspective, the "munro" is a Scottish mountain with an elevation of more than 3,000 feet, or twice as high.

In addition to their geologic description, most geologists suggest to be considered a mountain, the landform must be at least 1,000 feet above the surrounding area.

Landforms:

The tallest man-made building is the Burj Khalifa. It is also the world's tallest structure, previously held by the KVLY-TV mast in Blanchard, ND.

The Burj Khalifa, originally the Burj Dubai, Dubai, UAE, is 2,722 feet high. 

From Fargo / Blanchard:

Beyond the pale: we've previously talked about this on the blog (or an associated blog) so I won't go in to it again, but if I did, it would go full circle and bring us back to the WPX Palo Pinto wells.

New Permits, DUCs, And Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- May 12, 2023

Locator: 44625BFP. 

Earnings: I'm not sure what all the whining about earnings was about this year -- these all had good to great to outstanding reports: OKE, SRE, KMI, SWX.

DIS: not so much. 

Today's headline:

Incredible, link here.

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The Bakken Front Page

Active rigs: 39.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $71.37.

Natural gas: $2.168.

Wells coming off confidential list:

  • Monday, May 15, 2023: 20 for the month; 72 for the quarter, 327 for the year
    • 39284, conf, CLR, Smouse 6-28H,
    • 39274, conf, Kraken, Sumner 12-13-24 4H,
    • 37184, conf, Zavanna, Edgar 10-3 2TFH,
  • Sunday, May 14, 2023: 17 for the month; 69 for the quarter, 324 for the year
    • 39273, conf, Kraken, Sumner 1-36-25 3H,
    • 37179, conf, Hess, EN-Davenport-156-94-1003H-8,
  • Saturday, May 13, 202: 15 for the month; 67 for the quarter, 322 for the year  
    • 39272, conf, Kraken, Sumner 1-36-25 2H,
  • Friday, May 12, 2023: 14 for the month; 66 for the quarter, 321 for the year
    • 39271, conf, Kraken, Sumner 1-36-225 1H,
    • 37177, conf, Hess, EN-Davenport-156-94-1003H-6,
  • Thursday, May 11, 2023: 12 for the month; 64 for the quarter, 319 for the year
    • 38877, conf, Whiting, Smith 12-7TFX

Six new permits, Thursday, May 11, 2023, #39891 - #39896, inclusive:

  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Alkali Creek (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Hess has permits for six more EN-Madisyn wells, SWSE 7-154-94, 
      • to be sited between 921 FSL and 922 FSL and between 2486 FWL and 2540 FWL

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed, Thursday, May 11, 2023:

  • 38882, 918, WPX, Palo Pinto 20-17HB,
  • 38883, 1,315, WPX, Palo Pinto 20-17HY,
  • 38884, 1,040, WPX, Palo Pinto 20-17A,
  • 38136, 1,580, CLR, Dennis FIU 9-8H1,

RBN Energy: bitcoin mining and ChatGPT can help reduce gas flaring ... wait, what?

Every day, large volumes of associated gas are flared around the world, mostly because there’s not enough infrastructure in place to transport the gas to market. This isn’t just a colossal waste of energy — flaring generates a lot of carbon dioxide (CO2) and, according to a recent study, it’s only 91% efficient (on average) at zapping methane, a particularly potent greenhouse gas (GHG).

But what if there was a cost-effective way to beneficially consume the gas that’s stranded in remote parts of the Permian, the Bakken and other major production areas? It turns out there is — by using the gas onsite to produce electricity to power portable, modular data centers used to support cryptocurrency mining, artificial intelligence (AI) programs like ChatGPT, and other high-tech endeavors requiring massive amounts of computation power and energy. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the growing use of stranded natural gas as a power source for middle-of-nowhere data centers.

Crude-oil-focused producers have been flaring gas in the U.S. since the first oil was produced in western Pennsylvania more than 160 years ago.

Back in the day, flaring seemed to make perfect sense. (At the time, no one really thought about the environmental fallout.) After all, there was no infrastructure in place to transport and process the volatile associated gas that emerged from wells with oil — the controlled combustion of the gas onsite made oil production much safer. Over time, if wells in a production area not too far from civilization were producing large volumes of associated gas, it made economic sense to develop gas-gathering systems and larger-diameter pipelines to deliver the gas to market. Still, gas flaring continued though to a somewhat lesser degree, both for safety and economic reasons — sometimes the gas volumes produced were too small to justify the cost of developing processing and takeaway infrastructure, and sometimes gathering and takeaway projects faced delays in securing rights of way or permits

During the Shale Era, vast amounts of gas were flared in some areas (especially the Bakken, but elsewhere too) as producers and midstreamers struggled to keep up with infrastructure needs.

In 2011 and again in 2014, more than one-third of North Dakota’s produced gas was flared, spurring the state to implement rules that led to a steady ratcheting down in flared volumes to where it stands today at less than 5%.

 Flaring? Let's talk about the Mideast.