Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Locator: 44620E.

Personality of the day: Sandy Dennis. 

Up The Down Staircase, Bel Kaufman, c. 1964, on the NYT best seller list for 64 weeks. One of the first best books I ever read. I was thirteen years old when it was published. Just ordered a copy from Amazon to read again. Paperback edition, but a hard cover for $121 is still available. Books fascinated me then, age thirteen; they still do.

Hunt Oil With Two New Permits; BR With Seven Renewed Permits; One DUC Reported As Completed -- May 10, 2023

Locator: 44619B.

Active rigs: 39.

WTI: $72.56.

Natural gas: $2.191.

Two new permits, #39889 - #39890, inclusive:

• Operator: Hunt Oil
• Field: Wolf Bay (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• Hunt Oil has permits for two Halliday wells, NESE 14-146-93, 
• to be sited 2151 FSL and 226 FEL, and 2240 FSL and 327 FSL.

Seven permits renewed:

• BR: two Croff permits; two Mathistad permits, McKenzie County; and, three Keene permits, Dunn County.

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 37476, 532, Petro-Hunt, Watterud 160-95-14B-23-1HS,

Gasoline Demand -- May 10, 2023

Locator: 44618B.

Link here.

********************
A Musical Interlude

>

Iris DeMent: 

Iris DeMent was born in Paragould, Arkansas, the 14th and youngest child of Pat DeMent (1910–1992) and wife Flora Mae (1918–2011).

Iris's mother had harbored dreams of going to Nashville and starting a singing career. Although she put those plans on hold to get married, her singing voice was an inspiration and influence for her youngest daughter Iris.

DeMent was raised in a Pentecostal household. Her family moved from Arkansas to the Los Angeles area when she was three. While growing up, she was exposed to and influenced by country and gospel music.

Singing at age five as one of "the little DeMent sisters,"Iris had a bad experience when she forgot her words during her first performance, which caused her to avoid performing in public for some time.

DeMent was inspired to write her first song, "Our Town," by a drive through a boarded-up Midwest town at the age of 25. The song lyrics came to her "exactly as it is now," without need for re-writing, and she realized then that songwriting was her calling.

"Our Town" was played during the closing scene for the final episode (July 26, 1995) of CBS's television series Northern Exposure.

Link here.

DIS - 2Q23

Locator: 44614SW.    

Streaming: link here. Streaming wars. 

With regard to streaming, DIS+ is not the best option in the streaming sector. And, the "streaming sector" is a bad sector in which to be, in the first place. 

Updates

May 11, 2023: WSJ  finally calls it -- investors are spooked by the loss of subscribers. 

Walt Disney shares slid Thursday after the company reported that income from its traditional television business had declined sharply and its streaming segment is still a long way from achieving profitability.

Shares of the entertainment giant closed down 8.7% at $92.31, their largest percentage decline since November 9, 2022, when they fell over 13%.

The stock was the worst performer in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average for the day.

The drop comes despite Disney sharply reducing losses in its streaming business in the second quarter, helped by higher prices for Disney+. But it also lost about 300,000 subscribers in the U.S. and Canada [earlier reports said 600,000], while its global subscriber count was also sliced due to cancellations in India, where Disney last year lost the rights to stream a popular cricket league that powered new sign-ups.

BUD has a problem; DIS has a bigger problem.

May 11, 2023:

DIS is making BUD look great. LOL. 

IIRC: DIS+ lost 600,000 subscribers in the US this last quarter. DIS+ lost four million subscribers in one quarter --  tries to hide the bleeding by saying almost all of that was in India. But 600K in the US is not trivial.

Most interesting: analysts and "Wall Street" are doing what they can to sugar coat this story. Isn't working.

4:32 p.m. CT: 

In addition, the company is already seeing ripple effects from the writers’ strike, including the production shutdowns of Marvel Studios’ “Blade,” which was set to begin filming in Atlanta next month, as well as the Disney+ Star Wars series “Andor." [Not good. The word on the street is that there is "no end in sight" with regard to the strike. Ouch.]

4:29 p.m. CT:  

Additionally, the company plans to remove more content from its streaming platforms, which it expects will result in impairment charges of between $1.5 billion and $1.8 billion. [That doesn't sound good.]

It also plans to roll out a smaller volume of content going forward. [That doesn't souunt good.]

Disney’s linear TV networks posted $6.63 billion in revenue for the period, down 7% from a year earlier. [That's definitely not good.]

Overall, for the three-month period ended April 1, 2023, Disney reported net income of $1.49 billion, or 69 cents a share, compared with $597 million, or 26 cents a share, a year earlier. [Last year, 26 cents; this year, 69 cents, and this year, adjusted, 93 cents. That's good.]

4:20 p.m. CT: it looks like DIS+ and Hulu are now one? Not sure how this is going to work. Waiting for details. It looks like DIS+ will cost more in the future but Hulu stays the same -- doesn't get DIS+. A one-way street as it were, not a two-way street, unless I'm misreading this. 

Disney has a powerful "family" brand and those with kids will like it, but I don't need DIS+. Actually, all I need is Amazon Prime, but I have to admit, without Hulu I would miss sports. 

But at the end of the day, all I really need is Amazon Prime Video which comes "free" with an Amazon Prime subscription. At the end of the day, Amazon Prime is still a much better deal than DIS+ for me.

3:45 p.m. CT:

Wall Street had expected Disney+ subscriptions to grow less than 1% during the quarter to reach 163.17 million users. However, the service saw a 2% decline in memberships, falling to 157.8 million subscribers from 161.8 million as of December 31, 2023.

The majority of these losses came from an 8% drop in membership at India’s Disney+ Hotstar. An additional 600,000 subscribers were lost domestically.

3:30 p.m. CT: 

Comment: once analysts did into these numbers, they're going to see how really bad they really are. No matter how much make-up you put on Minnie, the miss is still a miss.

Original Post

Link here.

Here are what analysts expect:

• Earnings per share: 93 cents per share expected.
• Revenue: $21.79 billion expected.
• Disney+ total subscriptions: 163.17 million expected.

A Well Drilled In 2015 With Small Jump In Production -- May 10, 2023

Locator: 44617B. 

The well:

• 27384, 1,844, XTO, Berquist 31X-2D, Garden, t1/15; cum 186K 5/18; cum 239K 6/21; off line 7/21; cum 250K 3/23; 

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	3175	3061	2503	11948	11650	0
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	3442	3598	2279	10762	10494	0
BAKKEN	1-2023	15	3529	2939	1703	8859	8029	684
BAKKEN	12-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2022	5	748	749	119	1877	813	1062
BAKKEN	9-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	1	0	86	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	8	302	405	16	1419	1379	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	1633	1554	744	6797	6610	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	1764	1704	725	6142	5953	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	1751	1775	654	5709	5531	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	2465	2816	1155	7409	7113	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	26	2276	1837	1028	5912	3779	1908
BAKKEN	1-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	1	3	301	0	7	0	7
BAKKEN	9-2020	30	1361	1463	863	5951	5769	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	31	1532	1474	791	6419	6223	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	31	1563	1440	877	6582	6386	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	30	1844	1681	525	6904	6715	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	31	1532	1846	886	5769	5580	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	2022	1776	1064	6348	6159	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	2391	2669	1345	6584	6290	0

A Petro-Hunt Well With Second Jump In Production -- May 10, 2023

Locator: 44616B. 

The well:

• 27208, 2,262, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-8-2HS, Charlson, t12/14; cum 599K 4/19;  cum 683K 10/21; cum 686K 12/22; back on line; production jump; cum 690K 3/23;

Recent production: 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	1587	1617	950	2854	845	1793
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	1208	1392	778	2640	2303	142
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	1123	1164	1018	3146	2370	560
BAKKEN	12-2022	31	1503	702	2277	2691	446	2033
BAKKEN	11-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	9	49	288	243	63	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	0	0	3103	216	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	0	0	4493	209	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	3	0	4290	217	0	1
BAKKEN	4-2022	23	207	229	3338	392	166	70
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	98	0	5102	245	0	29
BAKKEN	2-2022	25	148	249	3467	171	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	18	431	449	623	160	0	38
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	364	233	55	396	160	20
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	536	488	55	571	350	12
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	598	659	43	902	685	1

Still Flowing After Almost Ten Years -- May 10, 2023

Locator: 44615B. 

The well:

• 22820, 1,240, CLR, Antelope 1-23H2, Elm Tree, t12/14; cum 572K 2/20; cum 610K 10/21; cum 634K 12/22; F; cuum 637K 3/23; F. 

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2023	18	591	737	597	2586	2412	0
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	1202	970	1112	4984	4606	0
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	1425	1734	1336	5572	5161	0
BAKKEN	12-2022	30	1182	984	1293	4796	4432	0
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	1436	1462	1249	5983	5578	0
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	1487	1447	1450	6170	5751	0
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	1499	1667	1492	6178	5773	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	29	1467	1192	1452	5639	5267	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	1536	1615	1700	6005	5586	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	1621	1412	1671	6225	5824	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	1832	1847	1771	6372	5953	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	29	1833	1928	1704	6584	6206	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	1972	1966	1764	6931	6520	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	27	1899	1690	1771	4911	4546	0

Hess BB-Lars Rothie Wells

Locator: 44613B.   

The wells:

• 32955, 1,304, Hess, BB-Lars Rothie-LE-151-95-3229H-1, Blue Buttes, t7/17; cum 484K 3/23;
  
• 32954, 2,042, Hess, BB-Lars Rothie-151-95-2932H-4, Blue Buttes, t7/17; cum 449K 3/23;
  
• 32953, 2,219, Hess, BB-Lars Rothie-151-95-2932H-3, Blue Buttes, t7/17; cum 431K 3/23;
• 32952, 2,071, Hess, BB-Lars Rothie-151-95-2932H-2, Blue Buttes, t7/17; cum 482K 3/23;
• 32829, 2,513, Hess, BB-Lars Rothie-LW-151-95-3229H1, Blue Buttes, Three Forks, 60 stages; 4.2 million lb s, t10/17; cum 398K 12/20; cum 454K 11/22; cum 363K 3/23;
  
• 32828, 3,119, Hess, BB-Lars Rothie-151-95-3229H-8, Blue Buttes, 60 stages; 4.2 million lbs, t11/17; cum 424K 12/20; cum 438K 5/21; cum 483K 11/22; cum 490K 3/23;
  
• 32827, 2,613, Hess, BB-Lars Rothie-151-95-3229H-6, Blue Buttes, t11/17; cum 397K 12/20; cum 411K 5/21; cum 447K 11/22; cum 451K 3/23;
  
• 32826, 2,708, Hess, BB-Lars Rothie-151-95-3229H-6, Blue Buttes, t11/17; cum 400K 12/20; 413K 5/21; cum 452K 11/22; cum 462K 3/23;
• 30324, 368, Lime Rock Resources, Raphael Stroh 5-13-24H-143-97L,  Fayette; 4 sections; t7/17; cum 241K 12/20; cum 253K 5/21; cum 279K 11/22;
•  32825, 921, Hess, BB-Lars Rothie-151-95-3229H-5, Blue Buttes, t11/17; cum 305K 12/20; cum 320K 5/21; 367K 11/22; cum 375K 3/23;
• 16433, 244, Hess, Lars Rothie 32-29H, Blue Buttes, t6/07; cum 260K 3/23;
  

A CLR Hereford Federal Well With Nice Jump In Production -- Six Years Old -- May 10, 2023

Locator: 44612B.   

The well:

• 32351, 1,136, CLR, Hereford Federal 5-20H, Elm Tree, 71 stages; 14.2 million lbs large, small, no ceramic; t8/17; cum 304K 12/20; cum 378K 11/22; cum 400K 3/23;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	6253	6218	8487	18933	18336	257
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	4936	4925	6829	15699	14993	450
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	5782	5813	6317	15704	14145	1308
BAKKEN	12-2022	26	4795	4763	4942	17124	15071	1818
BAKKEN	11-2022	29	5146	5141	5712	18166	16609	1303
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	6771	6862	7430	16782	16368	150
BAKKEN	9-2022	29	7491	7448	8030	22405	20929	1242
BAKKEN	8-2022	30	7625	7562	7766	22760	20834	1706
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	6476	6407	12225	18698	17820	622
BAKKEN	6-2022	29	1542	1533	11163	9419	8516	614
BAKKEN	5-2022	26	1748	1762	4451	10162	8013	1905
BAKKEN	4-2022	26	1465	1474	4435	9639	8770	634
BAKKEN	3-2022	30	2377	2387	3938	12478	11251	907
BAKKEN	2-2022	16	1178	1223	2305	7246	6897	164

 

At Least We Got A New Word Out Of It -- May 10, 2023

Locator: 44611BUD.  

"Mulvaney."

Teacher to Sophia: "Use "mulvaney" in a sentence."

Sophia: "In board rooms across the country, CEOs are being warned not to create a mulvaney problem."

Teacher: "Correct. You used it as an adjective, but it can also be used as a noun: CEOs are being warned not to create a mulvaney."

Johnny: "And, as a verb. Don't mulvaney that."

"Mulvaney" is not to be confused with the golf term, "mulligan," which means "to do over." Not gonna happen in this case.

Lucid -- Saudi Arabia; CMCSA -- May 10, 2023

Locator: 44610EVs. 

Updates

October 15, 2023: first company to have manufacturing plant in Saudi Arabia. Link here.

Original Post 

I posted this earlier and was not planning on posting it as a stand-alone but it's such an incredible story, it needs to be a stand-alone:

LCID: wider loss than forecast despite Saudi funding this luxury EV manufacturer. It must be an important story, Charles Kennedy is reporting it.

• how big was the revenue miss? Huge: $149.4 million vs $209.9 million forecast;
• the net loss widened at $779.5 million (1Q23) vs $81.3 million last year (1Q22)

Charles Kennedy used the verb "widened" to report the change, but that's more than a "widening" in my book. In his defense, I can't think of a better word, but holy cow, the loss went from $80 million to $800 million in one year and supposedly the economy is improving and supply chain issues are improving.

The CEO blamed the huge loss on "challenges."

Saudi Arabia owns more than 60% of Lucid.

LCID today: down a bit, down 3/4ths of a percent; trading at $7.22 -- a year ago: around $20.

When did Saudi first invest in LCID?

The chart goes back to September 18, 2020, at $9.89, and then shot to $52 in February, 2021, and peaked at $55 in November, 2021, before beginning its long, crushing, death spiral.

*********************
CMCSA

Data Point Of Importance: Crude Oil Import Numbers -- May 10, 2023

Locator: 44609EIA. 

Link here. 

EIA's weekly petroleum report:

• US crude oil in commercial storage increased by a whopping 3.0 million bbls; at 462.6 million bbls in storage, US crude oil inventories are 1% below the five-year average -- I have to re-check but I thought last week inventories were substantially higher than the five-year average -- if true, inventories increased by 3 million bbls but inventories compared to five-year average drop substantially?
• refineries are operating at 91% of their capacity, and again, inventories rose substantially?
• crude imports at 5.6 million bopd last week decreased by almost a million bopd (reported: 843,000 bopd); four-week average up about 1%. So, again, substantial import number and amount of oil in commercial storage is about 1% less than five-year average;
• distillate fuel inventories decreased by 4.2 million bbls and are a whopping 16% below the five-year average -- again, huge inventory build, and refiners are operating at a nice level (91%) and yet distillate fuel 16% below the five-year average -- and three of those five years were "dead years."
• propane is 29% above the five year average
• jet fuel supplied was up 10.2% -- does this explain some of the numbers above; I don't know -- but the numbers this week seem more perplexing than usual.

Does this help?

If accurate, WTI should have increased, all things being equal.

What did WTI do? Continued to slide after yesterday's API numbers. Trading at $72.74.

Link here.

Soft Landing AND Goldilocks Economy? May 10, 2023

Locator: 44608M. 

After CPI numbers come out, the market surges. But less than 30 minutes later, turns negative.

In the news: copper. Link here.

And a 5% dividend.

Strategic investor Dennis Gartman thinks if copper closes down sharply on Monday the market could be looking at trouble.

Gartman is watching the technicals and says copper is currently flirting with some key levels. “You start to break some very important short-term technical uptrend lines,” he said.

And as goes copper, so goes the market, he said. In fact, Gartman pointed out that the recent correlation between copper prices, crude oil prices and stock prices has been “unbelievable.” 

A bit of hyperbole? As copper goes, so goes the market?

Let's look at others:

• AAPL: up nicely; trading at $173; floor, $133; ceiling, $200.
  
• RIVN: up 9%! -- Whoo-hoo!
• RIDE: flat
• BUD: down 2%; down to $62;
• BRK-B: down slightly
• AMD: up 1.7%
• ABBV: flat; pays 4%
• JNJ: up slightly
• KVUE: up slightly
• F: up 1.3%
• GM: up 1.3%
• SRE: flat

Overall, a blah day. 

iPhone --> Apple Services:

WTI Slips After API Build -- May 10, 2023

Locator: 44607B. 

Market: holy mackerel! The market surges in pre-market trading when CPI numbers released this morning. Soft landing and goldilocks economy. 

Inflation watch: occasionally tracked here:

• eggs: $2.59 (Target) -- twenty cents less expensive than a year ago;
• white bread: $1.89 -- vs $1.19 exactly one year ago -- obviously grocers are trying to taking advantage of "inflation"; there's no way white bread should increase from $1.19 to $1.89 in one year if CPI figures out today show 4.9% increase y/y
• diet Coke, 2-liter bottle: $2.79 -- about the same; possibly twenty cents less expensive;

US postage: to go into effect July 9, 2023, if no pushback, story here. The last increase, from 60 cents to 63 cents was earlier this year?

Spoiler: let's see who gets the blame when the debt limit vote is delayed.

Let's go, Brandon --> Let's go, Bud.

Parade: I was unaware of this until tomorrow because I did not attend the parade. Putin's biggest military parade this past week featured one tank -- WWII vintage. Pick one, the first three choices don't count:

• strapped for cash
• strapped for tanks
• strapped for qualified drivers
• all of the above

 
Personally, I would like to see a bit more analysis by Peter Zeihan on this story.

Apparently, the US Army is running short of ammunition due to Putin's war. If that's correct, can you imagine the challenges the Russian army is facing? In war, it's all about logistics ... "for want of a nail." 

LCID: wider loss than forecast despite Saudi funding this luxury EV manufacturer. It must be an important story, Charles Kennedy is reporting it.

• how big was the revenue miss? Huge: $149.4 million vs $209.9 million forecast;
• the net loss widened at $779.5 million (1Q23) vs $81.3 million for same period a year earlier, 1Q22.

******************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 38.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $72.82.

Natural gas: $2.228.

Thursday, May 11, 2023: 12 for the month; 64 for the quarter, 319 for the year
38877, conf, Whiting, Smith 12-7TFX, 

Wednesday, May 10, 2023: 11 for the month; 63 for the quarter, 318 for the year 
None.

RBN Energy: the race to debottleneck Louisiana feedgas routes: pre-FID projects, part 5. 

New U.S. LNG export projects battling rising labor and equipment costs and/or financing woes have one more thing to worry about that the first wave of projects didn’t: ensuring the feedgas supply will be there when they need it. Bottlenecks have already developed for moving natural gas volumes to the Louisiana coast, where the bulk of future export capacity will be sited. As more liquefaction capacity is built out and more export projects are greenlighted, a lot more pipeline capacity will be needed to move feedgas supply from the Haynesville and other supply basins into southern Louisiana and across the last mile to the terminals. In today’s RBN blog, we conclude our roundup of pipeline expansions in the Bayou State that would help ease transportation constraints and balance the market, this time with a look at announced-but-yet-to-be sanctioned greenfield pipeline expansions, along with an update on their associated export projects.