Locator: 44606CO2.
Tuesday, May 9, 2023
Poolside -- May 9, 2023
Locator: 44605ARCH.
I read a lot but not nearly as much as Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger according to them. But having said that, The Atlantic really is one of the better periodicals, a monthly.
When subscribing, one gets a hard copy each month and access to the on-line site, and it's incredible how much they post. Truly amazing. Today, for example, this in addition to everything else:
It's 81°F right, poolside.
A beautiful evening. I plan to be here until midnight.
I now understand why "most Americans say life is worse today than fifty years ago." From The Atlantic article:
Can you imagine the rest of your life constrained by the need to charge your EV? We will be seeing a lot more stories along this line.
The other reason, of course, is that human beings are social animals, and we're no longer social. My wife has little time for me: she's always on the computer streaming. This is her day of streaming: news, news, TV crime show, news, news, news, TV art show, news, news, news, movie. I've pretty much given up -- that's why I find summer so wonderful -- the pool.
My 2011/2012 Honda mileage:
Mileage:
- a year ago, June 8, 2022: 122,263
- a year later, May 9, 2023: 124,744
- one year's mileage: 2,309 miles.
I figured it would be about 5,000 miles. Wow.
This is about the only car I drive, and mostly to chauffeur Sophia to her activities.
In my neighborhood I have more retail than Mall of America (needs to be fact-checked) with Walmart at one end of the mile long retail park and Albertson's (regional grocer) at the other end with Target in the middle. What local retail can't provide, Amazon will deliver. For "free." The only retail store to which I cannot bike is Costco, and I visit Costco twice a year: once yearly to pick up some really, really nice jewelry for my wife; and, once yearly, to look at the Apple products. Every two or three years I might buy a new iPad or new computer.
Speaking of which, I got a note from Amazon today saying that my order that was to be delivered today was delayed for some reason. Amazon said it was on its way but something interrupted the delivery process, but I should expect it tomorrow. It's an indoor-outdoor rug for the balcony. Now that I've got the bat cave (AKA the garage) fixed up for Sophia and me, I can now work on my tropical garden of Eden on the balcony.
The Amazon delay? My hunch: the Rivian ran out of juice. LOL.
Update: I just got a note from UPS. That delivery also delayed. My hunch: Amazon handed the delivery to UPS for some reason. This happens occasionally.
And, yes, we have a nursery within biking distance, though I do need the car to bring plants home. But if I didn't a care, I would combine errands and rent a U-Haul (within biking distance) for $19.99 a day, and actually rent it for half the day, now that they offer that.
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A Musical Interlude
This connects a lot of dots for me. Trent. Suicide. Hurt. Bud. Immigrants. The Southern Surge. Vikings.
The links:
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fkP3urtYCkc
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AHCfZTRGiI
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Z9pB4yI-BQ
And, most interesting: Karen O. The New Yorker, September 11, 2022.
North Dakota Down To 38 Active Rigs; Kraken With Five New Permits -- May 9, 2023
Locator: 44604B.
Demographics:
- gen z: 1997 - 2015 (currently, ages 8 - 26)
- gen alpha: Sophia
- tracking here.
API: It will be interesting to see how this is explained -- analysts forecast a draw of 1.6 million bbls of crude oil; in fact, inventories increased by 3.618 million bbls. If US demand was relatively unchanged, then it was exports, and I am unaware of any reasons why exports would have been down, but we will see the EIA data tomorrow.
API weekly data: WTI up today --
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs: 38.
WTI: $73.71.
Natural gas: $2.267.
Five new permits, #39884 - #39888, inclusive:
- Operator: Kraken
- Field: Green Lake (Williams); Burg (Williams)
- Comments:
- Kraken has permits for two Kisner wells, SESE 24-159-1000,
- to be sited 407 FSL and 448 FEL; and, 407 FSL and 415 FEL; and,
- permits for three Deacon wells, SESE 24-159-100,
- to be sited 407 FSL and between 316 FEL and 382 FEL.
Seven permits renewed:
- Formenter Operations, four LIG2 permits; one Grays state permit; one FLX permit; and, one PTL permit.
? Three Hours. Unanimous. May 9, 2023
Locator: 44603TRUMP.
The downfall of Trump tracked here.
The following was not the lead story at that news site. The lead story: a country music star who must take six weeks off to let his vocal cords rest. I cannot make this up.
They Need To Move To Texas -- Or Ask 300,000 Migrants That Will Cross The Southern Border This Next Month -- May 9, 2023
Locator: 44602US.
A recent Pew Research poll (an incredibly unscientific poll from such a respected group):
My reply: "They need to move to Texas."
"Most"of those folks taking that survey were contacted on their smartphones. Most of those smart phones were free or heavily subsidized by their carrier. And those smart phones were more powerful than any computer in 1973. Needs to be fact-checked, but one gets the point.
As for me, I live in a 900-square foot apartment ( (actually I think it's slightly less than that), pay no income tax, and my newest car is a 2012 Honda Civic that I bought new in late 2011. That's my newest car. My oldest car is in perfect shape but because it won't pass the Texas emissions test, I can't get it registered. The "piece" that is needed to correct that problem is no longer available. I maintain the car anyway. It's eighteen years old; vehicles older than 25 years in Texas don't need to pass the emissions test; seven more years to go.
This is my view today, with the temperature forecast to reach a high of 84°F (the high was 95°F yesterday, I believe; I forget). It will stay near 80°F through the midnight hours and I will be out at the pool until then.
My view:
My wife would agree: our family is worth more to us than material goods, and I'm not sure how that's quantified in a research poll asking me whether my life is "worse" or "better" than it might have been fifty years ago. Medical care alone .... and for seniors, it's practically free.
My wife would probably disagree: I often feel guilty having it as good as I do. If it weren't for the family, I would be happy with fewer material goods but I do need a car to drive Sophia to all her activities. If I didn't have Sophia, I would not have a car.
By the way, that 2012 Honda, with 125,000 miles on it, just passed state inspection. Registered for another year. State registration fee: $74.
Cost to inspect it, oil change, some type of filter change (it was optional/recommended -- not required) cost $196 including the "contribution" I made at "point of service" to "Boys and Girls Club."
Wow, what a digression.
The FOMC And US Economy / International Concerns -- May 9, 2023
Locator: 44601ECON.
A reader sent me this graphic, no source, link here.
My not ready-for-prime-time reply:
- very interesting graphic.
- only two huge changes: banking and real estate
- banking risk is temporary, manageable, and, for the time being, contained.
- they need to separate residential and commercial real estate:
- commercial
- in major cities on east and west coasts, commercial property values plummeting; with 50% of office workers not returning to work, a lot of empty office buildings
- Jeff Bezos should send AOC a huge thank you for stopping huge Amazon facility on Long Island
- residential real estate
- not sure what the problem is there to contribute to that 12% to 52% -- I think the 12% to 52% is all commercial risk.
- in Texas, and I bet across the entire fly-over country, real estate is a minor problem in comparison to commercial real state on east / west coasts.
- it's nice to see they are not worried about:
- debt ceiling
- southern surge
- cost of cars
After receiving the graphic, this:
The American Dream -- All These Things Are Not Gone -- May 9, 2023
Locator: 44598ECON.
Investing:
- margins, moats, long time horizon
- a plan: 50-40-5-5
- good companies in good sectors
Dividends:
Overnight, there was a relatively huge jump in one of my portfolios in which I no longer "touch"; it's just there.
Thirty years I established the portfolio and once it got to a certain point, I "set it to forget it."
Dividends are now transferred to newer portfolios, of which I do the same: establish a portfolio, and then "set it and forget it."
As noted, overnight, there was a relatively huge jump in one of those "set it and forget it" portfolios -- at one time, a DRIP portfolio, but now, I stopped the DRIPs, and re-invest the dividends in new portfolios.
Well, it turns out, one of those DRIP investments had really grown and I had never paid attention, and now the dividends are shocking! As in shockingly good.
Buffett refers to "dividends" as the secret sauce.
Tell me again how poorly the economy is doing:
Tell me again how there's nothing worth buying, Big Pharma:
The Magic Number: 13.1 Million BOPD US Production -- May 9, 2023
Locator: 44608WTI.
Excellent update US: crude oil production and demand. Link here.
If I could recommend only one article today, this would be it, although it's really nothing more than a re-writing of the EIA weekly petroleum report.
Data points:
- production
- increased by 100,000 b/d
- for week ending March 17, 2023: 12.3 million bopd produed
- this matched the 2023 peak and the production pinnacle since early 2020 (Trump lockdown: March, 2020)
- in March, 2020: a record 13.1 million bopd production
- the 12.3 million bopd just reported far exceeds the year-earlier 11.6 million bopd
- demand:
- for same week, demand increased 5% w/w
- crude exports declined modestly
- --> SPR increased by 1.1 million bbls w/w
- at 481.2 million bbls, SPR was 8% above the five-year average
- tell me again why we need to think about re-filling the SPR
BRK Annual Meeting -- For Fiscal Year 2022 -- Held May 6, 2023 -- IN PROGRESS
Locator: 44607BRK23.
Five biggest stories coming out of BRK's annual meeting, May 6, 2023:
- largest acquirer of US real estate in 2022: BRK
- BRK's transition from China to Japan
- spooked by China-Taiwan tensions
- Buffett not worried about the Fed; JPow good; US congress bad.
- Buffett: corporate taxes still too low
The next five:
Big stories but we already knew:
- Buffett was not about to acquire OXY;
- Buffett says, of his holdings, Apple is by far the best company: one
- Buffett refutes the meme that AAPL represents 45% of his holdings: one
- Buffett turns 93 years old this year; Charlie Munger is currently 99 years old
One plus one = two.
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Pilot Travel Centers
Folks may want to watch this. This may have been a transformative decision as big as the decision to buy BNSF some years ago and to take a huge stake in AAPL not too long ago.
BRK picked up an incredibly large amount of incredibly valuable real estate.
- Pilot "acquisition": transformative.
- OXY: simply a business decision; temporary.
Not Much To Report Today From The Bakken Oil Patch -- May 9, 2023
Locator: 44606B.
Margins, moats, rolling 30-year horizong. 50-40-5-5.
That's it, that's the whole story: link here. Amazon. AAPL.
Tracking taxes and administrations:
New Jersey commute to New York:
- enter NYC below 6th street: one way cost -- increased to $25
- was $15
- Starbucks coffee and croissant: $10
- the real reason for the toll increase: to try to save the subways
- with upwards of 50% of office workers still not returning to work, subways are "empty"
- here's the rest of the story: link here.
- by the way, that new commuter toll is not temporary
- first question: when was the last time the toll was raised?
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs: 39.
Peter Zeihan newsletter.
WTI: $72.39.
Natural gas: $2.269.
Wednesday, May 10, 2023: 11 for the month; 63 for the quarter, 318 for the year
None.
None.
RBN Energy: E&Ps provided record shareholder returns in 2022 but eye a leaner 2023.
The saying goes, “If you got it, flaunt it,” and the rise of social media has certainly accelerated the ostentatious display of sudden wealth by rock stars, rappers, tech billionaires, star athletes and others. While it might be unseemly for executives at oil and gas companies to indulge in bling from gold chains to $400,000 Maserati GranCabrios to half-billion-dollar mega-yachts, they weren’t shy about displaying their companies’ financial gains last year from surging commodity prices in the form of lavish shareholder returns that in some cases dwarf returns from the traditional dividend giants. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll detail the extraordinary 2022 returns allocated to oil and gas investors and discuss the warning signs that 2023 will be a leaner year.
