Albemarle Crushes Earnings -- May 3, 2023

Locator: 44535I.

WMB

Link here. 

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Abelmarle

Wiki.

Albemarle Corporation is an American specialty chemicals manufacturing company based in Charlotte, North Carolina.

It operates three divisions: lithium (68.4% of 2022 revenues), bromine specialties (19.3% of 2022 revenues) and catalysts (12.3% of 2022 revenues).

As of 2020, Albemarle was the largest provider of lithium for electric vehicle batteries in the world.

Albemarle, Sociedad Química y Minera (Chile), and FMC Corporation (Philadelphia, PA) collectively produce just over half of the world's lithium and lithium storage products, while just under half is produced by China.

I don't invest in / trade in or even watch this company but this popped up on my twitter feed and it seems like a big deal.

Link here. 

But He Better Move Fast -- He's Got A One-Month Window/Opportunity -- May 3, 2023

Locator: 44534B.

PSX -- Earnings -- 1Q23

Locator: 44533R.

Link here.

One of the top U.S. refiners, Phillips 66, reported higher-than-expected earnings for the first quarter amid solid demand and lower crude oil feedstock. 

Phillips 66 booked adjusted earnings of $2.0 billion, or $4.21 per share, in the first quarter, compared with fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.9 billion. Adjusted EPS beat the Wall Street consensus of $3.56 compiled by the Wall Street Journal.

Realized margins increased from $19.73 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2022 to $20.72 per barrel in the first quarter of 2023. This was nearly double from $10.83 per barrel for the first quarter of 2022.

I'm Not Holding My Breath -- The Dividend Increase Will Be Trivial -- May 3, 2023

Locator: 44532A.  

Link here.

Think about that, from 2012 to 2022, ten years, Apple has spent $572 billion on repurchasing stock. 

It may now be authorized to buy an amount over 15% of that 10-year total. 

Apple's free cash flow is running about $110 billion / year. Cash on hand, about $50 billion.

One And Done -- May 3, 2023

Locator: 44531B.   

For the archives: despite employers adding another 345,000 workers to their payrolls -- what the Fed did not want -- the Fed signals "rate hikes are done." Link here. 

Gasoline demand, link here.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 41.

WTI: $66.63.

Natural gas: $2.147.

No new oil or gas permits.

EIA Weekly Petroleum Data -- May 3, 2023

Locator: 44530EIA.   

Link here.

• US crude oil in storage decreased by 1.3 million bbls; 459.6 million bbls in storagge; 2% below 5-year average as we enter the driving season;
• refiners are operating at 90.7%;
• both gasoline and distillate fuel production decreased last week;
• crude oil imports have been increasing about 5% over the historical "norm";
• distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.2 million bbls
• jet fuel product supplied was up 1%

Note: the weekly report has added a new paragraph or two -- price data. 

Trucks And Investing -- An Early Look -- May 3, 2023

Locator: 44529TRUCK.   

My twitter account is full of these ads -- starting yesterday and going into today, link here.

And, here.

This link will take you to a Daimler advertisement. Link here.

This is the new eM2 -- class 6 - 7 according to the ad.

Now, let's see what else we can find.

Freightliner Business Class M2 has its own wiki page.

The e-M2, an all-electric variant of this class 5 medium duty box truck, was unveiled in mid-2018. It would have 480 hp (360 kW) peak horsepower, using 325 kWh (280 Mcal) batteries, having a range of 230 miles.

The fast charger would allow for 80% charge in 1 hour (184 miles).

It has a load capacity GCWR of 26,000 lb.

As of 2019, it costs $400,000; about 4 times the price of the diesel equivalent. The truck is currently [date of entry not provided] being field-tested by customers. The first out of 10 trucks [sic] was delivered to Penske Truck Leasing Corporation in Los Angeles in December 2018.

So, that's one problem: as of 2019, it costs $400,000; about 4 times the price of the diesel equivalent. 

Here we go, the press release, yesterday, May 2, 2023, note byline: Portland, Oregon -- whoo-hoo!

PORTLAND, Ore., May 2, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Freightliner, a leading manufacturer of medium- and heavy-duty trucks and a division of Daimler Truck North America LLC (DTNA), today unveiled the series production eM2 for pick-up and delivery applications, which is ready to order and will start production in fall this year.

At the same time, Freightliner has introduced an innovation eM2 medium-duty truck with the goal to learn from real-world customer experiences in vocational applications.

"Expanding our electric product portfolio with the eM2 marks another historic moment for our customers and the industry on our joint journey to zero emissions," said David Carson, senior vice president, sales and marketing, DTNA.

"With its versatility, the eM2 will be the perfect fit for pick-up and delivery customers who require an adaptable electric solution. Our vocational innovation vehicles are designed to set the stage to expand eM2 coverage into additional customer applications in the future.

The Rivian -- a "heavy-duty truck"? Well, not really. Link here.

The F-350?

So, for my purposes, who else is manufacturing electric Class 6 -7 trucks?

From March 8, 2023:

For the next six months, I am tweaking my investment new-money allotment investing plan and Daimler is a big part of that tweaking, whether to accumulate more shares or cut back. 

Truck classification. 

By the way, the "truck classification" article could have easily been generated ChatGPT assuming the app would also include graphics as good (or as basic) as the above link.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

By the way, there's a huge problem with how trucks are classified now that we have electric trucks? Does anyone else see the problem? This is quite fascinating.

Pondering -- May 3, 2023

Locator: 44529BANK.  

• SVB: Bay Area -- tech.
  First Republic: Bay area -- tech.
• PacWest: Beverly Hills, CA -- commercial, construction, infrastructure.

Is this the real problem? : George Skelton, link here.

Tax season: the rich are fleeing high-tax states?

• why? Because they can.
• link: https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/major-blue-states-hemorrhaging-adjusted-gross-income-residents-flee-irs-data-shows.

Nordstrom exits San Francisco. 

Will Employees Each Get Their Picture On A Can Of Bud? May 3, 2023

Locator: 44528BUD.  

BUD: Kid Rock, Dylan Mulvaney -- an unlikely mash-up.

This is almost pathetic on so many levels, from the Wall Street Journal:

The maker of Bud Light is working to make amends with its distributors, who say they have taken the brunt of the backlash to a company promotion with a transgender influencer

Anheuser-Busch InBev, the country’s largest brewer, has pledged to boost its marketing spending on Bud Light, accelerate production of a new slate of ads, and give a case of Bud Light to every employee of an Anheuser-Busch wholesaler, distributors said.  [Isn't that what Dylan got -- a free case of Bud but with her/his picture on the can?]

The efforts are continuing a month after Dylan Mulvaney, a transgender social-media star, spoke in an Instagram video about a personalized can of Bud Light that the brewer had sent her as a gift.

The April 1 post sparked a boycott that caused sales to plummet for both Anheuser-Busch and its independently owned distributors.

The distributors’ employees, many of whom drive trucks bearing the Bud Light logo, were confronted by angry people on streets, in stores and in bars. 

Firs, two mid-level marketing executives are furloughed / fired / laid off, or as the Brits say, "made redundant.".

Then, promises of more ad spending.

The ads? Back to Clydesdales. More US flags. [BUD is based in Belgium.]

And now! A free case of beer for each distributor employee.

In other words, business as usual.

Geico Rock Award Nominee -- George Skelton -- May 3, 2023

Locator: 44527G. 

Geico Rock Award nominee: George Skelton, link here.

Eagle Ford In The News; Diamondback In The Permian -- May 3, 2023

Locator: 44526B.  

Crescent Energy: link here.

Enervus: link here.

Diamondback, link here:

Most Interesting Insight Of The Day -- Coming Up -- Stay Tuned -- May 3, 2023

Locator: 44525A.  

Connecting the dots, but it won't be linear. Mostly a jumbled mess of dots right now. I'll post these dots randomly and let readers sort it out. I can't articulate it coherently but I know I'm right on this. LOL. 

Some initial comments:

• despite the Fed raising rates at the fastest rate ever, a lot of financial institutions (banks, e.g.) never increased the rates they paid their customers for money in savings accounts, money market funds, overnight sweeps);
• now that more of those financial institutions are raising the rates they pay their customers for savings, a lot of folks say it's because of I-bonds;
• and, social media;
• in my twitter account this morning I had two ads from banks announcing they were paying upwards of 4.5% on savings (in line with I-bonds); I had never seen such ads before on my twitter account (by the way, speaking of which, not yet seeing any new BUD ads -- slow to respond to an existential threat, but I digress);

But quick: who was first to act? Who got the attention of Gens X, Y, and Z? LOL.

The ads in my twitter account:

• SoFi: link here;
• Interactive brokers: link here.

Interactive Brokers and SoFi advertising savings rates? LOL.

By now, I'm sure folks know where I'm going with this.

Investing -- Stories That Fascinate Me -- May 3, 2023

Locator: 44524I. 

Investing:

• opportunities: over at SeekingAlpha: PXD, APA, and COP

•  ban on natural gas hook-ups in the northeast, NYC, New England? 

• this has nothing to do with the environment per se; it's a lack of natural gas pipelines. 
• it's now become urgent, literally a risk of running out of enough natural gas for those already dependent upon natural gas.
• google natural gas pipelines Long Island Brooklyn AOC
• one has to remember: politicians, by nature, are not that bright
• politicians don't act until they absolutely have to
• I'm convinced the NY governor was briefed on the seriousness of this matter when she announced her decision; she was told in stark terms, "natural gas is not going to meet demand"
  
• the story no longer interests me; it's simply fascinating to watch this play out;
  

• contagion: now its PacWest -- once the dominoes start to fall ....

• Ford:

Rivian:

Molson Coors: link here.

Molson Coors posted earnings of $0.54 per share, which was a long, long way ahead of the $0.26 per share analysts expected.

Revenue was also up, coming in at $2.35 billion against projections calling for $2.23 billion. Better yet, revenue increased 6.3% year-over-year, with net sales up 5.9% as well.

Molson Coors even noted that it looks for a slight increase in net sales even with some significant macroeconomic headwinds already in progress

... the eighth quarter running that Molson Coors has delivered top-line growth, a point which suggests that a return to Earth is due. Nothing grows forever, after all, and what goes up must certainly come down. Coors stock has already landed an advantage from the Bud Light / Dylan Mulvaney debacle.

Meanwhile, given that Bud Light is now in a “panic” over the state of its own advertising—or so noted a report in AdAge—that’s a good opportunity for Molson Coors to potentially wring a ninth quarter of gains out of the market.

BUD: Kid Rock, Dylan Mulvaney -- an unlikely mash-up.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source. 

RIDE: link here.

To make matters worse, over the past year, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates at a pace not seen since the 80s

High-growth companies like those in the electric vehicle market have seen their valuations crater, making it harder to access cheap funding through equity raises.

Although Lordstown claimed the initial batch of 500 Endurance trucks was out for delivery last November, 2022, the company voluntarily recalled them, halting production over quality issues.

Lordstown has faced bankruptcy several times last year, yet the Taiwanese electronics manufacturer Foxconn has been there to back the EV start-up financially, with several investment rounds to revamp the program. According to Lordstown’s SEC filing Monday, that may no longer be the case.

With the Foxconn deal falling through, the start-up says bankruptcy is a possibility.

More on Ford: link here; link here; link here.

Fleet sales: years ago, the same story -- fleet sales. I thought that was a big deal and a big deal for automakers. Then I learned that when auto makers rely on fleet sales that's a red flag That was years ago but the lesson stayed with me. I forget "why" but if nothing else, it has to do with a) low-end vehicles (no bells and whistles; and, b) very low margins. And fleet sales are sporadic or something to that effect; I've long forgotten the specifics.

The question: does the average Ford shareholder have a 30-year horizon?

Ford is still taking a loss on its EV business, which it often describes as a “startup.” The unit brought in $700 million in revenue, a 27% decline from last year, partly attributable to production interruptions of two of Ford’s most popular EVs: the F-150 Lightning pickup and the Mustang Mach-E SUV. Ford said production for the Mach-E was interrupted by “industrial changes that will nearly double manufacturing capacity,” which perhaps explains Ford’s most recent price drop on the vehicle.

That marks the second time Ford has cut the price on the Mach-E this quarter. The first time was in January and followed similar price cuts from Tesla.

Ford aims to sell EVs at a global run rate of 600,000 units by the end of 2023 and more than 2 million by the end of 2026. The automaker will have to build and ship quickly if it wants to meet that goal. Ford only reported 10,866 EV units sold in Q1 this year.

Despite the losses within Model e, Ford’s other two units were more than enough to push the automaker into growth territory. Ford said that Ford Blue and Ford Pro business segments were both profitable in every region where they operate. The automaker shipped 1.1 million vehicles in the quarter, an increase of 9% year-over-year, with the majority of sales coming from Ford’s gas-powered, hybrid and electric trucks, commercial vans and SUVs, according to the company.

Four Wells Coming Off The Confidential List -- WTI Sinks -- May 3, 2023

Locator: 44523B. 

ICYMI: Nordstrom is closing two stores in downtown San Francisco due to theft, safety issues. San Francisco Chronicle in a panic.

Anticipation: CRC.

Geico Rock Award nominee: George Skelton, link here.

Wow, I'm in a great mood. Short bike ride; gave me time to think. #1 on my list: tweak my investment new-money allotment for the next six months. Won't churn; won't sell anything, but will change allotment from 40-30-20-5-5 to 90-5-5- for next six months. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Investing. Most interesting stories right now, some of which I might cover in greater detail later but unlikely.

• Putin's War: both sides are now "deep" into body counts. That's always a bad sign, as the US learned in Vietnam.
• banking: how AAPL changed things overnight; 
• Schwab scrambling?
  
• EVs: multiple stories --
• Ford cuts the price of its electric Ford Mustang -- never a good sign
• Tesla: still no pickup?
  
• major surprises, or where I've been wrong
• BUD: this story has legs; very, very surprising; it's counterintuitive but the LGBQT community won this war
• Russian oil: I was 1000% sure that by now Russia's oil sector would be "on the ropes"; Russia's ability to produce oil, export oil, ship oi, deliver oil under these circumstances is stunning
• Saudi must be in a panic

 And, that's it. I guess that's all that fascinates me right now.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 42.

WTI: $69.62.

Natural gas: $2.177.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

Thursday, May 4, 2023: 8 for the month; 60 for the quarter, 315 for the year
38856, conf, Whiting, Littlefield 11-21-2HU,
36401, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 4-24-26-16HU,
 
Wednesday, May 3, 2023: 6 for the month; 58 for the quarter, 313 for the year
39261, conf, Hunt, Cook 146-93-24-13H6,
39260, conf, Hunt, Cook 146-93-24-13H5,
36404, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 4-244-25-13H3,
31211 (no typo), conf, BR, Gladstone 6-1-13MBH,

RBN Energy: why did propane production sag, and when is it coming back?

U.S. propane stocks are high, 33% over the 5-year average. Year-to-date propane exports are at a robust 1.6 MMb/d, well above the 1.4 MMb/d shipped out in 2022. Increasing propane production must be driving the growth in inventories and exports, right? Nay! Propane production is actually down, falling 9% from September 2022 to December, and even with meager growth this year is still 3% below the September high. So where are the propane export and inventory barrels coming from? And what does this mystery reveal about the trajectory of propane production over the next year or two? In today’s RBN blog, we do some sleuthing and come up with some answers.