Diane Feinstein -- Age 89 -- Complications From Shingles -- Hospitalized -- April 18, 2023

Locator: 44417M. 

Indications are, Diane Feinstein is:

• an anti-vaxxer;
• did not get the "shingles vaccine."

Link here.

89 years old.

My "bill" for the "shingles vaccine" which I received on January 20, 2023 (a few months ago) after putting it off for decades (the vaccine is a series of two shots; this was my second. Total: about $500 for the series).

• Pharmacy charge: $286.20.
• Tricare approved: $189.02.
• Beneficiary paid: $0.00

I've had four Covid-19 vaccinations.

I got my "seasonal flu" for the first time since I retired from the USAF in 2007. 

Also, the pneumococcal vaccine this past winter.

I'm up to date on all vaccinations except a tetanus which I will get sometime this spring.

Any person over the age of 65 who does not take the "shingles vaccine" (assuming no contraindications and can afford it or has insurance coverage) is a fool.

Note: Medicare does not pay for vaccines. 

On another note, anyone relying on a politician to understand the origin of a disease is also a fool. But that's another story for another day, which will likely never come with regard to this blog.

My Favorite Chart Takes A Huge Jump -- April 18, 2023

Locator: 44416I.

My favorite chart, link here. 

I remember the first time I posted this chart, and told folks it was my favorite chart -- that must have been a year ago -- and some reader said I was nuts. The reader couldn't think of a more boring, mundane economic chart. LOL. The reader may still feel that way.

But wow. What a move. Since January, 2020, the beginning of the plague year, we haven't seen such a move. If you go to the link, you can "hover" over the chart and get specific information. Truly amazing. 

$4 trillion just prior to January, 2020. Now it appears to be about $5.8 trillion. 

$4 trillion --> $5.8 trillion: a 45% jump? Say what?

The chart:

Two things:

• when the Fed pivots, a lot of folks are going to rush back into equities;
• a lot of those folks are going to dump their mid- to long-term bonds to get back into the equity market.

That should start happening by the end of this year.

My favorite chart.

************************
Late Night Reading

The Atlantic.

Awesome issue.

"The Myth of the Broke Millennial." Jean M. Twenge. Five pages. Millennials have not been economically unlucky when it comes to home-ownership. If anything, the reverse is true.

"The Ice-Cream Conspiracy: Studies show a mysterious health benefit to ice cream." Scientists don't want to talk about it. David Merritt Johns. Seven pages. The Harvard group didn't like the ice-cream finding: it seemed wrong. One scientist said that the ice-cream effect was "similar" in magnitude to, or "slightly stronger" than, the one for yogurt.

"Is holocaust education making anti-Semitism worse?" Dara Horn. Fifteen pages. Page 35: Southlake, Texas. Absolutely frightening, disgusting. This is a huge, huge issue in the DFW area.

"The Magic Kingdom of Ron DeSantis." The writer's very British romp through America's weirdest state. Helen Lewis. Eleven pages. Although the sunshine state forged DeSantis, he's not a true Florida man. But he is a hater. 

"American Madness." Americans suffering from severe mental illness have been failed by a dysfunctional system. Jonathan Rosen. Nineteen pages.

"How Taylor Swift infiltrated dude rock." Spencer Kornhaber. Two pages.

"The Pornography Paradox." Laura Kipnis. Four pages.

"How to look at a Vermeer." Susan Tallman. Ten pages.

Well, Well, Well -- April 18, 2023

Locator: 44415P.

So much for all that Dominion crap. Good for them.  

From the same thread:

Perhaps the biggest political story this year, so far, and yet, not being reported by Fox News?

***************************
Kristi Noem

If reports are accurate, I've lost all interest in Kristi Noem. Period. Dot. 

If I get to choose between Kristi Noem and the incumbent, I'm voting for the incumbent.

The Oasis Rey Federal Wells In Camp Oil Field -- April 18, 2023

In progress; I will finish this later.

Locator: 44414B.

From earlier today on the blog:  

The Oasis Rey Federal wells are starting to report. These are some very, very nice wells. 

Let's take a look. 

38373, conf, Oasis, Rey Federal 5201 32-11 4B, Camp,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2023	16591	13483
1-2023	29797	31288
12-2022	40534	42913
11-2022	36975	39501
10-2022	13589	14312

• 38372, A/F, Oasis, Rey Federal 5201 32-11 3B, Camp, t--; cum 142K 2/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	37956	38299	37123	41175	35072	6103
BAKKEN	1-2023	21	19496	19493	22805	20480	19775	705
BAKKEN	12-2022	31	34643	34799	36298	33797	33106	691
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	34460	34354	42447	37370	35751	0
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	15933	15369	18791	17989	17278	0

The maps:

In that same section:

• 15523, a Madison well; 112, Lindvig 44-11H, Samson Oil and Gas, Camp, Lindvig 44-11H, t5/04; cum 214K 2/23;

• 19913, 2,825, Oasis, Sparrow Federal 5201 42-11H, Camp, t6/11; cum 389K 2/23;

• 23377, AB/1,319, Oasis, Hal Federal 5201 41-11T, Camp, t11/12; cum 168K 9/20;
• 23376, 1,722, Oasis, Amelia Federal 5201 41-11B, Camp, t12/12; cum 317K 2/23;

Rambling -- Tax Day -- April 18, 2023

Locator: 44413R. 

I've not seen any folks on social media talking about why this is absolutely the "Goldilocks" economy for investors with disposable (investment) income or "revenue stream."

Schwab is learning the hard way. Investors now have so many ways to earn 4% annually or better in almost risk-free investments. Most recently, this week, Apple announces a pain-free way to open a savings account earning -- risk-free -- 4.5%. What that means for me is that many of my "bread and butter" investments need to keep raising their dividends if they hope to keep their investors and/or attract more capital. JNJ is a great example. That Apple savings account won't offer any capital appreciation, but JNJ certainly will. 

I assume that the 4.5% payout by Apple will cost the company some money but surprisingly, AAPL rose on a down day for the market. Whoo-hoo! 

Look at NVDA. Doesn't pay much of a dividend -- none, for all practical matters -- but NVDA rose 2.5% today, adding $6.65 / share, trading at $277. Again, another whoo-hoo!

I think it's now pretty much a consensus that the Fed, with regard to the "Fed rate" will pause at best, and perhaps even better, start cutting by the end of the year. If you want to play that game, now is the time to lock in some medium-term / long-term bonds.  

But wow, think what a pause or a cut in the Fed rate, even if it's just one 25-bp cut, will do for the overall market!

So, investors have so many options. Start an Apple savings account; buy mid- to long-term bonds, or continue building positions in equities. Some tell me that the "60-40" rule is back in vogue. LOL. 

I'm poolside tonight. A beautiful, beautiful evening. The stars are out. Venus is the brightest object in the night sky (at least the night sky that I can see) -- to the southwest. Below the horizon, tracking "below" Venus: Mercury and then Jupiter.Next? Sirius, directly south of me. 

After Venus, the next brightest object? Sirius. Directly to the south of me and almost "straight across" from Venus.

Because of "light pollution," I can't see Orion's belt, but drawing a line from Sirius, which I can see, upwards and to the southwest. Like the North Star in the northern hemisphere, Sirius will someday be the "southern Pole Star." Link here for a great discussion, January 5, 2023.

I just added the subject heading for this evening's blog -- "Tax Day." I think this was the best tax day I've ever had. Three things:

• automatic extension for non-resident taxes due in another state; send check with estimate for calendar year 2022;
• automatic extension for Federal taxes: overpaid, will eventually see refund applied to next year's tax bill; send check for estimated taxes, 2023, Voucher 1;
• ignore the second state in which I owe taxes; that state always withholds too much and when I get around to filing, will also get a refund.
• there is no third state: Texas has no state income tax.
  

This could be the last year that I have a complicated tax filing.

JNJ

: dividend history. Link here.

JNJ: $1.19. From 84 cents in 2018.

[(1.19 - 0.84) / 0.84) = 42%. A 42% increase in one's JNJ dividend income. If one were a JNJ heiress living off a million-dollar dividend in 2018, that heiress is now being paid $1,420,000. Is that correct? Even a hundred-thousand-dollar dividend in 2018 is now paying $142,000. Is that correct? I don't know what inflation was doing between 2018 and 2023, but I doubt it was 42%. But maybe my assumptions, my math is wrong.

Music tonight? Jean Michel Jarre. We'll start with Oxygene. 

Jean Michel Jarre was my "go-to" music the first couple of years stationed in Germany back in the early 1980s. I think it started with his Les Concerts en Chine, released about the same time we landed in Germany.

Book tonight? California: America's High-Stakes Experiment, Peter Schrag, c. 2006. 

I'm tempted to transcribe it for the blog, one paragraph every day. I doubt I'll do it, but we'll see. We're going to have some long summer evenings starting next month and lasting through September.

Health? I'm in incredibly good physical and mental health but the tea leaves suggest I won't be around in 2024. 

Wow, talk about cliff-hanger, a teaser. But that's my premonition. My tea leaves. As a physician, I think I know what I'm talking about. Time will tell. Cliche.

A Starbucks Conversation -- April 18, 2023

Locator: 44413T.   

From Reuters technology today:

The "Fed" might pause: overheard at Starbucks today --

"So, the Fed raised rates at the fastest pace in US history his past year."
"Yeah, worried about an eleven-percent inflation rate."
"And transitory."
"And due mostly to supply chain issues, with spikes in prices for used cars. And that was about it."
"I'm gonna get another croissant. Anyone want anything?"
"Don't forget eggs."
"Oh, yes, top of the list for inflation. And due to shortage due to avian flu. As if raising rates will solve that problem.
"So, they raised rates to 6%, to stop transitory inflation that was already cooling."
"And investors saw their 2022 investments plummet as much as 35% and everyone took at least a 20% hit."
"So, you're saying the Fed raised rates 6% to slow an economy that was already cooling, and killed everyone's investment accounts in the process?"
"Wow, I forgot how expensive coffee was, and they charge for a refill."
"And they say they still have a lot of work to do."
"My thoughts: they say 50% of American don't pay federal income taxes. The 50% that do pay federal income taxes are investors. Those investors really, really took a huge hit, at leeast 20%  and as much as 35%. Those investors have had it. And the biggest percentage of investors are probably in NYC and DC. They've let the Fed and Congress know that 4% inflation is better than taking another 20% loss on the market if the Fed wants to keep raising rates."
"So, what's gonna happen?"
"Yeah, the Fed is done ..."
"Sorry to interrupt, but you're saying the Fed is forcing us to pay eight percent or more to borrow money to pay for things that are rising four percent?"
"Well, it's not that ...."
"Eight percent to bring inflation down from four percent to three percent?"
"You know, there are folks in Washington who want to see the Fed raise rates to ten percent to get inflation under control."
"Well, if they do that, I'm selling everything and putting that cash into that new Apple savings account, the one that pays fourpointfive percent."
"By the way, Walmart is closing four of their stores in Chicago and the one in downtown DC."
"I wonder what that's all about?"

For the archives. 

MRO With Two New Permits -- April 18, 2023

Locator: 44412B.   

JNJ: this morning I suggested that JNJ might announce an increase in its dividend today, and it did. Whoo-hoo. Up 5%. 

Fed pause: some folks are already talking about a "Fed pause." Whoo-hoo. I might come back to this and just ramble a bit. 

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 45.

WTI: $80.91.

Natural gas: $2.371.

Two new permits, #39827 - #39828, inclusive:

• Operator: MRO
• Field: Killdeer (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• MRO has permits for a Cournoyer well and a Leona well, NWNW 17-145-94; 
• the former to be sited 464 FNL and 270 FWL; and the Leona well to be sited 544 FNL and 273 FWL.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 35189, no IP test, XTO, Hoffmann Federal 21X-6H,
• 37014, 462, CLR, LCUU Rallph 3-27H1,

Girls Soccer -- State Championship Game -- April 15, 2023

Locator: 44411S.  

Nationwide rankings. Nationwide rankings do not separate schools by size. Largest schools in Texas are 6A. Olivia's Grapevine High School is 5A.

At 5A, Grapevine, is ranked #1 in Texas, of course. But look at this: Grapevine is ranked #4 in Texas, against all 5A and 6A schools. Three 6A schools are #1, #2, and #3. Then comes #Grapevine, the first 5A school on the list.

Grapevine is ranked 20th nationally, just behind Huntington Beach, CA, at 19th. 

Their nemesis, Midlothian, is ranked 49th nationally.

Rankings at this site. 

 **********************************
The Title Game

I don't know if these photos are behind a paywall or not.

#23 is Olivia, our granddaughter, a midfielder and a captain of the team, despite being only a junior. Generally, only seniors are selected by the coach to be captains. In Texas soccer, there are no co-captains. They are all captains. This team has three captains, two seniors and one junior.

Generally, captains wear an identifying band on their right calf, at the top of the stocking, but in this game they did not.

Olivia wears a blue headband -- as do two or three others. She wears the most basic cleat one can find. She says opponents, and especially coaches and captains of opposing teams, watch the footwork of other teams. It is easier too observe / critique soccer players using flamboyant, uniquely-colored cleats.

Link here.

Photos and other memorabilia are for sale from this site.

Olivia's team, the Grapevine (TX) Lady Mustangs, won 1 - 0.

I'm very, very biased, but Olivia is very, very good.

The story is at the Fort Worth Star-Telegram and is not behind a paywall (yet). The story will eventually disappear into the cloud. One can see the winning goal at twitter (same link as below).

From the Star-Telegram:

Winning score is on video.

One Well Coming Off Confidential List Today -- April 18, 2023

Locator: 44410B. 

US energy:

Apple: launches high-yield savings account.

Market looks "healthy" today.

•  MRNA. 

• BofA.

• JNJ. Link here. And, here.
  
• up 1.56%, up $2.58 in pre-market trading.
• could announce an increase in the quarterly dividend 
• adjusted earnings came to $2.68 a share, topping the $2.50 a share expected by Wall Street analysts. Sales rose to $24.75 billion in the first quarter, above the $23.60 billion expected by analysts, according to FactSet. 
• J&J, whose financial results are considered a bellwether for many health sectors, also raised its full-year guidance, saying it expects sales to rise about 6% to between $97.9 billion and $98.9 billion. In January, the company guided for sales to rise about 5% to between $96.9 billion and $97.9 billion in 2023.
• The company raised its full-year outlook for adjusted earnings to a range of $10.60 a share to $10.70 a share, up from $10.45 a share to $10.65 a share.
  

***************************
Back to the Bakken

The Oasis Rey Federal wells are starting to report. These are some very, very nice wells. 

Active rigs: 44.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $80.53.

Natural gas: $2.233.

Wednesday, April 19, 2023: 35 for the month; 35 for the quarter, 290 for the year
38868, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Twist 4-4-9H-143-95,
38373, conf, Oasis, Rey Federal 5201 32-11 4B,
37476, conf, Petro-Hunt, Watterud 160-95-14B-23-1HS, 

Tuesday, April 18, 2023: 32 for the month; 32 for the quarter, 287 for the year
39217, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Grasslands Federal 14-15-5H,

RBN Energy: to replace Russian products, Europe turns to Asis, Mideast, part 2. Archived.

Russia has long been a significant supplier of refined intermediates and finished products to Europe, just as it has been of crude oil. That changed, however, in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 as the European Union (EU) implemented a formal embargo on imports of Russian crude oil in December 2022, followed by refined products in February 2023. In today’s RBN blog, we review the reduction in imports of Russian refined products and intermediates into Europe and the specific replacement sources.

As we described in Part 1 of this series, Russia supplied about 25% of all crude oil and refined products to Europe and accounted for about 38% of EU imports before the embargo. The total volume was about 4.7 MMb/d, of which crude oil comprised more than 3 MMb/d. Total refined products supplied by Russia to Europe were around 1.5-1.6 MMb/d before February 2023, when the volume slumped to less than 500 Mb/d (multicolored bar to far right in Figure 1).

The EU ban on Russian refined products took effect on February 5, 2023, leading to significant reductions in diesel/gasoil, fuel oil/refinery feedstocks, and naphtha/gasoline. Diesel and gasoil (dark-green bar segments) contributed about one-half of Russian refined products imported by the EU with just under 800 Mb/d in 2021 and 2022, declining to 264 Mb/d in February-March 2023 (time period represents the 40 days after the embargo came into effect). Fuel oil and refinery feedstocks (yellow segments) had been trending in the 400-500 Mb/d range before falling to 153 Mb/d. Finally, naphtha and gasoline (blue segments) declined from 310 Mb/d to 65 Mb/d.

Figure 1. European Imports of Russian Refined Products. Sources: Baker & O’Brien, KPLER

Before we get going, it is worth putting the ~1 MMb/d fall in European imports of Russian products into some context. European refining capacity was approximately 15 MMb/d at the beginning of 2022. In recent years, refining throughput ranged from a low of 11.2 MMb/d (during the Covid nadir in 2020) to as high as 12.7 MMb/d (2019). European refinery utilization (~80% in non-Covid years) is typically less than in the U.S. (~90%), reflecting some non-competitive capacity. In 2019, European refined products demand was about 14.8 MMb/d. So, the decline in Russian supplies was in the order of 7% and 8% of demand and refining throughput, respectively. Europe’s relatively low historical refinery utilization suggests that European refineries had some potential to make up for the shortfall from Russian supplies, provided profit margins could support the increased run rates. Alternatively, Europe can tap into the global refining industry and vast waterborne supply options for other sources of refined products.