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Wednesday, March 29, 2023

Polestar, Hudson Yards, And The Vessel -- March 29, 2023

Reminder: Timberwolves vs Suns tonight, on NBC, 9:00 p.m. ET (?). Kevin Durant back after 10 missed games. 

Six links; too tired to do anything more with them, but want to clear out my in-box.




AMC / Amazon: link here.
  • AMC shares: surged at the open, but closed minus 3% for the day; down 15 cents; trading at $5.00.
  • so much for that rumor. 

Huge story:

For North Dakota Snowbirds Currently In Phoenix: Global Warming Smacks Bismarck; Nine New Permits -- March 29, 2023

WTI closes just below $73. How did the equity markets do?

Holy mackerel, not on my bingo card today:

  • Dow up 323 points.
  • NASDAQ: up 210 points.
  • S&P 500: up 56 points.
    • CVX: up $1.37; up 0.9%; trading at $160.86.
    • COP: up $1.82; up 1.9%; trading at $99.75.
    • PSX: up $1.50; up 1.5%; trading at $100.28.
    • PXD: up $4.51; up 2.3%; trading at $202.28.
    • DVN: up $1.22; up 2.5%; trading at $49.79.
    • HES: up $3.4; up 2.6%; trading at $133.
    • EOG: up $2.27; up 2%; trading $112.68.
    • ENB: up $1.10; up 3%; trading at $37.82.
    • EPD: up 16 cents; up 0.6% trading at $25.59.
    • SRE: this $124 stock up $3.00; up 2%; trading at $148.45.
    • AAPL: up $31.2; up 2%; trading at $160.77.
    • TSM: up $1.95; up 2%; trading at $92.76.
    • RIVN: up $1.28; up 10%; trading at $14.24.
    • F: up 45 cents; up 4%; trading at $12.05.

From The Bismarck Tribune:

Cold weather that blanketed North Dakota early Wednesday set a record in Bismarck.

The overnight low plunged to minus 13 degrees, breaking the previous mark for the date of minus 7 degrees set in 1964, according to the National Weather Service. Normal for March 29 is a low of 24 degrees above zero.

Overnight temps plummeted as low as minus 20 degrees in Oakes and Rugby, according to the weather service. Linton had minus 18, and Steele and Glen Ullin minus 15.

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 45.

WTI: $72.79.

Natural gas: $1.991.

Nine new permits, #39763 - #39771, inclusive:

  • Operators: WPX (5); Marathon (4)
  • Fields: Heart Butte (Dunn County); Lake Ilo (Dunn County); Bailey (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • WPX has permits for five Sarah Yellow Wolf wells, NENW 22-149-91; 
      • to be sited between 916 FNL and 818 FNL and between 2293 FWL and 2407 FWL;
    • MRO has permits for the following four wells -- Quincy, Middleton, Ebetoft, and Beverly, NWNE 18-145-93; 
      • to be sited 432 FNL and between 1470 FEL and 1590 FEL.

Hearing Dockets -- April, 2023

Link here

The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.  

The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

See also cases of interest here.

Wednesday.
April 23, 2023
16 pages

These are cases, not permits. 

  • 29951, NDIC, Squaw Gap Field, consider name change, McKenzie County.
  • 29952, NDIC, Charlson-Bakken, terminate a lease-linee 2560-acre unit; establish a laydown lease-line 1280-acre unit.
  • 29953, Hess, Stanley and/or Alger-Bakken, 2 x 7 = 14 wells, establish two overlapping laydown 1920-acre units, section 1-155-92 and sections 5/6-155-91; and, section 12-155-92 and sections 7/8-155-91,  Mountrail County;
  • 29954, Hess, Stanley and/or Alger-Bakken, establish an overlapping 38440-acre unit, sections 1/12-155-92 and sections 5/6/7/8-155-91; one well, Mountrail.
  • 29955, Hess, Antelope-Sanish, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; sectiosn 12/13-152-95 and sections 7/18-152-94, one well, McKenzie County.
  • 29956, Hess, Manitou-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, sections 2/3/10/11-155-94; one well, Mountrail.
  • 29957, Hess, casing on plugged and abandoned wells.
  • 29958, Neptune Operating LLC, Pronghorn-Bakken, establish two overlapping standup 1920-acre units, sections 5/8/17; and sections 20/29/32-150-101, two wells each unit; McKenzie County.
  • 29959, Oasis, Squires and/or Bull Butte-Bakken; i) establish two overlapping standup 1920-acre units, sections 17/20/29-156-102; and, section 32-156-102 and sections 5/8-155-102; three wells on each; ii) establish two overlapping 3840-acre units, sections 16/7/20/21/2829-156-102; and sections 32/33-156-102 and sections 4/5/8/9-155-102; one well on each, Willliams County.
  • 29960, Oasis, Tyrone-Bakken, i) establish three overlapping standup 1920-accre units; sections 12/13/24-156-102; sections 7/18/19-156-101; sections 8/17/20-156-101; three wells each; ii) establish one overlapping laydown 1920-acre unit, section 1-156-102 and sections 5/6-156-101; three wells; iii) establish two overlapping 3840 acre units, sections 12/13/24-156-102 and sections 7/18/19-156-101; and sections 7/8/1718/19/20-156-101; one well on each, Williams.
  • 29961, Ovintiv, Siverston, Tobacco Garden and/or South Tobacco Garden-Bakken; i) establish two overlapping 2560-acre units, sections 13/14/23/24; and sections 14/15/22/23-150-99; one well each; ii) establish three overlapping 2560-acre units, sections 1/2/11/12-150-99; sections 2/3/10/11-150-99, and sections 13/24-150-99, and sections 18/19-150-98, two wells on each; McKenzie.
  • 29962, Kraken, commingling,
  • 29963, Oasis, pooling,
  • 29964, Oasis, pooling,
  • 29965, Oasis, pooling,
  • 29966, Oasis, pooling,
  • 29967, Oasis, pooling,
  • 29968, Oasis, pooling,
  • 29969, Oasis, pooling,
  • 29970, Oasis, pooling,
  • 29971, Oasis, pooling,
  • 29972, Oasis, pooling,
  • 29973, Oasis, pooling,
  • 29974, Oasis, pooling,
  • 29975, Oasis, commingling,
  • 29976, Murex, commingling,
  • 29977, Murex, commingling,
  • 29978, Hess, commingling,
  • 29979, Hess, commingling,
  • 29980, Hess, commingling,
  • 29981, Hess, commingling,
  • 29982, Hess, pooling,
  • 29983, Hess, pooling,
  • 29984, Hess, pooling,
  • 29985, Hess, pooling,
  • 29986, Hess, pooling,
  • 29987, Whiting, pooling,
  • 29988, Whiting, pooling,
  • 29989, Whiting, pooling,
  • 29990, Whiting, pooling,
  • 29991, Whiting, pooling,
  • 29992, Whiting, pooling,
  • 29993, Ovintiv, commingling,
  • 29994, Ovintiv, Siverston-Bakken; fourteen wells on a 1280-acre unit, sections 13/24-150-99; McKenzie;
  • 29995, Ovintiv, South Tobacco Garden-Bakken, fourteen wells on a 1280-acre unit; sections 14/23-150-99; McKenzie; 
  • 29996, BR, commingling,
  • 29997, BR, commingling,
  • 29998, MRO, pooling;
  • 29999, MRO, commingling,
  • 30000, MRO, commingling,
  • 30001, Petro-Hunt, pooling,
  • 30002, Petro-Hunt, pooling,
  • 30003, Petro-Hunt, pooling,
  • 30004, Lime Rock, pooling,
  • 30005, Lime Rock, pooling,

Thursday.
April 27, 2023
13 pages

These are cases, not permits.

  • 30006, NDIC, Liberty Resources Management, termination / reduction of the Glass Bluff-Madison Unit, McKenzie and Williams counties.
  • 30007, NDIC, Samson Oil and Gas USA, Foreman-Butte pool, temporary authority to rework and use the Mays #1-20H well, #15646, section 28-150-102 for an EOR pilot operation, McKenzie County.
  • 30008, Resonance Exploration a proposed injection well, 720-acre spacing; E/2, E/2W/2 of section 36-163-79, and NE/4, E/2NW/4 of section 1-162-79, Bottineau County.
  • 30009, Resonance Exploration a proposed injection well, 640-acre spacing; S/2SW/4 of section 1 and the S/2, NW/4 and S/2NE/4 of section 12-162-80, Bottineau County. 
  • 30010, one well,
  • 30011, Cobra Oil & Gas, terminate the Bauman Drain-Madison Unit, Bottineau County.
  • 30012, KODA Resources Operating, 20 wells + 40 wells for a total of 60 wells.
  • 30013, KODA Resources, Daneville-Bakken, 20 wells.
  • 30014, CLR, Elm Tree-Bakken, 
  • 30015, CLR, Little Knife-Bakken, Rattlesnake Point-Bakken, and/or Jim Creek-Bakken, create and establish twwooverlapping 3840-acre units, sectionn 36-147-97, section 1/12-146-97, section 31-147-96 and section 6/7-146-96; and, secctions 13/24/25-146-97, and sections 18/19/30-146-96; one well between spacing units; Dunn County; 
  • 30016, EMEP Operating, create a 160-acre unit, NE/4 of section 4-142-94; recompletion of the Charles Davis 1-4-9H-142-9H (#23676); Dunn County;
  • 30017, Grayson Mill, Camp-Bakken, exception to the rules; McKenzie County;
  • 30018, Crescent Point Energy, Little Muddy-Bakken; establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; sections 1/2/11/12-158-101, one section line well; Williams
  • 30019, Crescent Point Energy, commingling;
  • 20020, Crescent Point Energy, commingling;
  • 30021, Crescent Point Energy, pooling;
  • 30022, Crescent Point Energy, pooling;
  • 30023, Crescent Point Energy, pooling;
  • 30024, Crescent Point Energy, pooling;
  • 30025, Crescent Point Energy, pooling;
  • 30026, Crescent Point Energy, pooling;
  • 30027, Crescent Point Energy, pooling;
  • 30028, Crescent Point Energy, pooling;
  • 30029, Crescent Point Energy, pooling;
  • 30030, Liberty Resources Management, pooling;
  • 30031, Liberty Resources Management, pooling;
  • 30032, CLR, pooling;
  • 30033, CLR, pooling;
  • 30034, KODA Resources, Fertile Valley-Bakken; five wells each on two existing 1920-acre units, sections 2/11/14 and sections 23/26/35-160-102, Divide County;
  • 30035, WPX, commingling;
  • 30036, WPX, commingling;
  • 30037, Enerplus, commingling;
  • 30038, XTO, commingling;
  • 30039, XTO, commingling;
  • 30040, XTO, commingling;
  • 30041, Resonance Exploration, injection well on a 640-acre unit, S/2SW/4, section 1 and the S/2, NW/4 and S/2NE/4 of section 12-162-80, Bottineau; 
  • 30042, Resonance Exploration, injection well on a720-acre unit, E/2, E/2W/2 section 36-163-79 and the NE/4, E/2NW/4 section 1-162-79, Bottineau County.

Friday.
April 27, 2023
1 page

These are cases, not permits. Only two cases:

  • 30043, Foundation Energy Management, Camel Hump-Red River Unit, for unitized management, Golden Valley.
  • 30044, Foundation Energy Management, Camel Hump-Red River Unit; the plan for unitization, Golden Valley.  

Is Anyone Paying Attention? Look At These Numbers -- March 29, 2023

EIA weekly petroleum report, link here:

  • US crude oil in storage decreased by a whopping 7.5 million bbls but the amount of oil in storage is still 6% more than its historical norm; six percent;
  • refiners are operating at 90% of their capacity;
  • implied gasoline demand hit 10 million bopd;
  • distillate fuel inventories are still 9% below their recent historical average;
  • airlines are taking 7.1% more jet fuel now than they did in the same period one year ago.

Gasoline demand, link here:

The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me -- March 29, 2023

OneLNG: Golar and Schlumberger form OneLNG joint venture. Link here. Do you know when that was? July 25, 2016. Seven years ago.

Today, from a reader: undated (?) --

The Eagle Ford would have also been a great choice but OneLNG went with the Bakken. Whoo-hoo!

The Ozempic Era -- March 29, 2023

My "new money" investment allotment -- 40 - 30 - 20 - 5 - 5:

  • 40: BRK
  • 30: tech
  • 20: oil
  • 5: Big Pharma
  • 5: Daimler

I have a problem with Big Pharma. 

The New Yorker, March 27, 2023: "The Ozempic Era." A six-page essay.

And then this, over at Yahoo!Finance

Ticker: NVO.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Recession? What Recession? March 29, 2023

EIA weekly petroleum report. Wow! Link  here: https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf.

Home sales: a surprise. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-pending-home-sales-post-140213114.html.

Mortgage rates: continue to melt. Link here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuyers-move-swiftly-lock-good-130000286.html.

California to Texas: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vanguard-says-retirees-add-least-130039245.html.

WTI: $73.35.

Dow: up nicely.

RMDs: another year.

Moving to Texas: Fisher Investments. Moving here for the weather. LOL. Fees on capital gains. Moving down the road from us, to Plano. A suburb north of Texas. Link: https://finance.yahoo.com/m/b56a2c81-e128-39d7-9597-fbf1d43dca2b/fisher-investments-moves-to.html.

NVDA: frothy. Link here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-sizzling-ai-driven-rally-100800938.html.

Lana Del Rey:

playlist 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wW8FbLxcqck

playlist 2:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5Nzcyg5r4M

playlist 3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0YCvrqFyIs&t=0s

Laser-Focused On Dividends -- March 29, 2023

Laser-focused on dividends: did I miss this one?


Recent history:

  • 2018: 69 cents
  • 2019: 76 cents
  • 2020: 76 cents, unchanged
  • 2021: 90 cents, and then $1.05 in same year
  • 2022: $1.05, then $1.13, and then $1.20 -- all in same year
  • 2023: starts off with a bang -- $1.25

Almost 20% increase from beginning of 2022 to beginning of 2023.

Henry Hub Breaks Below $2.00; WTI Flirting With $74; Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List; Halo Effect Now Becoming "The Expected” -- March 29, 2023

Wow, I'm in a great mood. Up most of the night, couldn't sleep. Too much to write.

Why did "sleep" evolve? Fascinating question. Google the question. I spent some time on that overnight; it seems no one has come up with the answer -- but I have my "theory" and again, I know I'm correct. LOL.

Grammar: fascinating topic. A reader sent me this link: "English is not normal." Among many, many other reasons this article "made my day": I was introduced to another professor of linguistics, a subject I really, really enjoy. John McWhorter. Columbia University. So many personal dots to connect including B.A. from Rutgers. But there's something else about the author that blew me away. 

Frisians: quick! Name the breed of the horse that Zorro rode.

Frisian or Friesian? By the way is it Frisian or is it Friesian. My maternal grandmother was from East Frisia, and I've probably mentioned Frisia / Frisian on my various blogs more times than I care to admit. No, I enjoy admitting it.  

Nationality: so what "nationality" is a Frisian?

One day closer to summer: one day closer to swimming outdoors. 

Olivia, the soccer player. Her team has now won the first two of three "regional" games. If they win this next game, later this week, they "go to state." They are are not expected to win. On the other hand, they were also not expected to "take district," which they did -- their high school women's soccer team has now "taken district" sixteen consecutive years. Quick: name any other team, high school, college, professional that has won their "district" championship sixteen consecutive years. And this in sports-crazy Texas.

New iPhone: this should get your attention. Link here.

Apple Music Classical is here. Link here. Here. Here.




Amazon Prime never fails to surprise (and reward me). Apple just introduced their Classical Music app which will be / is "free" with an Apple Music subscription ($99 / year; $4.99/month for college students. What I did not know: Apple Music is "free" (better said, no additional cost) for those with Amazon Prime. But there is a "catch." That "catch" confuses things but bottom line: with Amazon Prime, one has full access to all Apple music. Link here. Not the best link; other links better. 

Too many apps? Could apps disappear? Amazon may have opened that door. My hunch: most iPhone users are getting frustrated with the look of their screen -- cluttered with "pages" of apps, most of which are seldom used but, in the user's mind, critical. Yes, they also end up using a lot of memory and energy. Yes, I know, apps can be turned on / off; data won't be lost.

Amazon Music catalog: link here.

The equity market: never fails to surprise. Not entirely true, but today that adage seems true. If the Dow follows through with it's pre-market enthusiasm, it suggests that traders feel the risk of a banking collapse is trending toward zero.

The oil market: "they" say the price of WTI is climbing because of the spat between Iraq and Kurdistan. Perhaps. I doubt it.

Ukraine:

  • Russia's winter offensive: it failed.
  • Ukraine hit major target deep behind the "front line."
  • Growing talk from Kyiv of a counterassault against Russian forcees worn out by a failed witner offensive.
  • All from today's Reuters briefing.
  • Peter Zeihan "predicted" this six months ago.
  • Remember: Russian forces are now paid mercenaries.

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 44.

Peter Zeihan newsletter: with regard to Urkainee, the Japanese "get it." Unlike the GOP and Mr Trump.

WTI: pre-market, flirting with $74.

Natural gas: breaks below $2.00. Oh-oh.

Thursday, March 30, 2023:
3550, conf (no typo), Empire North Dakota, Waddle-Olson 1,
38864, conf, Liberty Resources, CA S 158-93-21-23-5MBHX,
38762, conf, Whiting, Locken 12-11TFX,

Wednesday, March 29, 2023: 88 for the month: 252 for the quarter, 252 for the year
39246, conf, KODA Resources, Bock 32-1 SWD,
39193, conf, CLR, Allen 6-17H,
38439, conf, Hess, EN-Farhart-LW-156-93-0409H-1

RBN Energy: a twofer.

Plans for energy development largely rest on fate of US permitting reform. Posted yesterdday, also.

E&Ps reap record 2022 profits, but eroding 4Q22 returns harken a ess idyllic 2023. Perhaps.

Last August, we titled our review of Q2 2022 E&P financial results Camelot after rising oil prices and surging natural gas realizations drove revenues, profits and cash flows to levels that seemed like an unrealizable dream for producers that had teetered on the brink of financial instability just two years before. Recent year-end results revealed the strongest returns in the industry’s history, much of which were distributed to long-suffering shareholders. But dreams fade and prices retreat, and Q4 2022 results suggest a far less idyllic 2023. In today’s RBN blog, we review the record 2022 performance and more sobering Q4 results.

After struggling to keep their heads above water since 2014, the 42 E&Ps in the universe of companies we track — which includes every publicly held U.S. E&P with a market capitalization over $500 million, but not integrated energy companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron — recorded back-to-back record profitable years in 2021 and 2022. These producers earned $82 billion in pre-tax operating profit in 2021 then doubled those results to $167 billion in 2022. As shown in Figure 1, the gap between E&P revenue (in dollars per barrel of oil equivalent, or $/boe; gray line) and costs (multicolored bars) is negligible to negative between 2015-20, with soaring profitability in 2021 and 2022 (white-space gap above bars) driven by healthy commodity prices and fiscally disciplined operating and capital expenditures.