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Tuesday, March 28, 2023

Focus On Fracking -- March 28, 2023

Link here.

Lede:

  • biggest drop in gasoline supplies in 18 months;
  • DUC well backlog at 4.9 months
That EIA fudge factor:
Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 15,376,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending March 17th, an average of 21,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries processed during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that an average of 160,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US.
So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA for the week ending March 17th appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports and from oilfield production was 1,996,000 barrels per day less than what was added to storage plus our oil refineries reported they used during the week.
To account for that disparity between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just inserted a [+1,996,000] barrel per day figure onto line 13 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet in order to make the reported data for the daily supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil ... NB: there is also a more recent twitter thread from the EIA administrator addressing these erros, and what they hope to do about it.

There is so much more at the linked article.

Anticipation -- XTO Well In Haystack Butte -- March 28, 2023

This DUC today reported as completed:

  • 35933, 2,734, XTO, Hovet Federal 41X-29D,

Of interest:

  • 20140, 1,841, XTO, Mandal Federal 41X-29C, Haystack Butte, t10/13; cum 225K 7/22:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-202320017901020102
BAKKEN12-20220000000
BAKKEN11-20220000000
BAKKEN10-20220000000
BAKKEN9-20220000000
BAKKEN8-20220000000
BAKKEN7-2022134691154837108510520
BAKKEN6-2022213407187791062101811

Job Cuts -- March 28, 2023

Crocodile tears for all those Disney cuts.

  • reality: put 223 Disney employees in an auditorium, and seven will lose their jobs
  • reality: put 100 Disney employees in an auditorium, and three will lose their jobs
  • my hunch: about that many would leave Disney every year; this "drastic" action simply makes it happen more quickly

Meanwhile, Lucid, link here:

Shares in LCID fell 7.25% today.

RIVN: fell 2.63% today.

ARVL: down 8% today.

RIDE: down half a percent today; trading at 65 cents; when we had all that "free money" in late 2020, RIDE was trending toward $30 / share.

EV scorecard here.

  • Scorecard changed, November 22, 2021.
      • Rivian -- Amazon -- Ford -- GlobalFoundries
      • Lordstown -- Apple -- GM -- silicon M1 chip (GM currently depends on seven chip manufacturers)
      • Tesla -- chips (?)
  •  Also:
    • Lordstown -- Apple -- GM (sells entire stake) -- silicon M1 chip (GM currently depends on seven chip manufacturers)
    • Lordstown -- Foxconn -- Endurance pickup -- added July 4, 2022

It's Spring --The Finches Are Building Their Nests -- March 28, 2023

Seeing many, many, many pairs of these house finches over the last few days.

Throughout our apartment complex.

I'll be putting out my hummingbird feeder next week -- as soon as Amazon ships. Normally it would be next-day delivery, but this is a special feeder that is shipped from the "source," not from Amazon.

I'll scatter small-bird bird seed for the finches.

Link here.

Panic In DC -- March 28, 2023

Poor side of town: North Dakota reps say "no" to "enhanced" free breakfast / lunch program in North Dakota public schools.

Johnny Rivers: opened the Whiskey A Go Go in Los Angeles on January 16, 1964.

But I digress.

Silly me.

Panic in Biden White House -- how do we tell the American people we need to release more oil from the SPR?

Is anyone paying attention?

API data today:

  • forecast: a "build of 187,000 bbls" -- link here.
  • actual: a draw of 6.076 million bbls -- link here. And, here.


If the EIA data tomorrow corroborates this -- "to the moon" as they say.

Further Examples Of The Halo Effect -- March 28, 2023

This DUC was reported today as completed:

  • 37628, 3,166, Grayson Mill, State 36-1 7H, 

Of interest, the following wells:

  • 18307, 3,236, Grayson Mill, State 36-1 1-H, Stony Creek, t1/10; cum 408K 1/23; in three days produced almost as much oil as produced in 30 days prior to recent neighboring frack:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2023386308528243402380
BAKKEN12-20220000000
BAKKEN11-20220000000
BAKKEN10-20220000000
BAKKEN9-20220000000
BAKKEN8-20221045687047844436678
BAKKEN7-20222915641710115314661127339
BAKKEN6-20222911971137119295286389
BAKKEN5-202293152352651441422
BAKKEN4-20222369178961964352625
BAKKEN3-202227938107096585071733

  • 19215, 1,872, Grayson Mill, State 36-1 2TFH, Stony Creek, t9/10; cum 276K 1/23; remains off line.
  • 19216, 3,442, Grayson Mill, State 36-1 3H, Stony Creek, t6/12; cum 333K 1/23; in nine days produced 4x the amount of oil produced in 30 days prior to recent neighboring frack:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20239379228913995247254894204
BAKKEN12-20220000000
BAKKEN11-20220000000
BAKKEN10-202200430000
BAKKEN9-2022002460000
BAKKEN8-2022124427603343153150
BAKKEN7-2022301023102410827357350
BAKKEN6-2022301089110411465865860

Starting To Clear Out The In-Box -- March 28, 2023

There were a number of stories in the past 24 hours that caught my interest. I've already covered some of them and posted them, but may have put them back in draft to re-post later.

The stories that will make the blog today:

  • Lana Del Rey's ninth album. I have a long post on that already. I can't recall if it's still posted or back in draft stage. Regardless, by midnight tonight the post will be completed and back up on the blog. Again, The WSJ entry.
  • Russia's economy is coming undone. From The WSJ today. Haven't posted the blog or the links yet; again, will have that done by midnight tonight.
  • Semiconductors are starting to report 2Q23 results. Micron reported a huge loss, coming in worse than expected, and the estimates were already set quite low. Micron's 2Q23 ended March 2, 2023. Don't ask. LOL. They must use a strange calendar in Boise. Link here. A word search suggests that "Micron MU" has been mentioned on the blog only one time. Link here.
  • Crude oil prices doing great, up another one percent today and well above $73 at the close. I don't think anyone really knows why WTI is doing so well; lots of ideas being floated. In the big scheme of things: China's re-opening.
  • US home prices, down for the seventh straight month. Was that jump in home prices transitory? Link here. A quick blurb:
All 20 cities reported lower prices in the year ending January 2023 versus the year ending December 2022, the report said.

Regionally, the cities that saw the largest price gains over last year in January were in Miami, Tampa, and Atlanta with year-over-year increases 13.8%, 10.5%, 8.4%, respectively.

On the other hand, once-popular markets such as San Francisco, San Diego, Portland, and Seattle all saw homes prices fall against the prior year, with drops of 7.6%, 1.4%, and 5.1%, respectively.

Russia's economy coming undone, see link above:



Russian foreign exchange reserves, link here:


Investing: laser focused on dividends.  This is quite fascinating. One can find any number of analysts coming up with "top-10" dividend lists. It's quite fascinating to see the overlap. Morningstar, for example, came out with a list this week, link here. Morningstar had a list of ten. Pfizer made the list. But take a close look at the blurbs for each of the ten. Example: here are #7 - #10, what do you notice?

  • The very first criteria? Moat.

Wikipedia: it's interesting how fast Wikipedia can "react." This is the wiki entry for Lana Del Rey's newest album. The wikipedia entry was "dated" 2200 hours, March 27, 2023, for the original entry. By the way, does anyone have any idea how Wiki "chooses" what items "deserve" a wiki page? I think I know.

Lana Del Rey: one from her new album.

Five New Permits; Five DUCs Reported As Completed -- March 28, 2023

Active rigs: 44.

WTI: $73.60.

Natural gas: $2.032.

Five new permits, #39757 - #39761, inclusive:

  • Operator: EOG (4): Grayson Mill
  • Fields: Phaelens Butte (McKenzie County); Todd (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • EOG has permits for four Phaelens Butte wells, NENW 10-149-94, 
      • to be sited 227 FNL and between 1505 FWL and 1655 FWL.
    • Grayson Mill has a permit for an Orville well, lot 4, section 4-154-101; 
      • to be sited 288 FNL and 475 FWL.

Four permits renewed, but all SWD wells.

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37417, 635, Petro-Hunt, Blikre 158-93-6B-7-3H,
  • 37010, 1,094, CLR, LCU Reckitt Federal 2-22H,
  • 35933, 2,734, XTO, Hovet Federal 41X-29D,
  • 38765, 415, Murex, KC-Dustin David 17-20H,
  • 37628, 3,166, Grayson Mill, State 36-1 7H,

Nashville Vs Uvalde — March 8, 2023

Uvalde trending on Twitter.

Compare this video (link below) with the still photos of the Uvalde police standing around outside the school while dozens of children were shot and killed, children pleading on their smart phones for help.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ue2tZa4hT0c.

Or compare this to the Uvalde police:

From Fox:

Really, Really Sad -- March 28, 2023

$90 million. That is what is costs to drill nine wells (in round numbers). Simply require oil companies drilling in North Dakota to pay for the school lunch program on a pro rata basis. It might cost CLR two wells annually.

Link here. And here.

Meanwhile, what incentives will the legislature give energy companies to build in North Dakota? 

The governor just signed a bill eliminating state income tax for active duty military who just received one of the largest COLAs in history. 


 

The party continues to move away from me.

**********************************
Oranges

News today: Walmart will close all their stores in Portland, OR, due to safety and theft issues. 

My dad talked often about his memories of growing up in northwest South Dakota. This was some of the "poorest" farmland in the western Dakotas. He said he thought "he had died and gone to heaven" when an orange showed up in his house during the winter (or perhaps ever, some years).

Because we have so many Walmarts in the area we have this:

Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- March 28, 2023

Crescent Point to buy Montney assets in $1.28 billion deal. Link here. Or go direct to story. Reuters.

  • Spartan Delta Corp assets in Alberta
  • average production 38,000 boepd
  • $1.28 billion / 38,000 = $34,000 / flowing boepd
  • in cash
  • 20 years of drilling inventory
  • profitable even if WTI drops below $40 / bbl

Merger approved. Link here.

Dividends. Link here.

WBA.

Washington State: still no income tax

A lot of money out there. Lego. And more. More here.

SJT.

 *************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 47.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $73.14.

Natural gas
: $2.063

Wednesday, March 29, 2023: 88 for the month: 252 for the quarter, 252 for the year
39246, conf, KODA Resources, Bock 32-1 SWD,
39193, conf, CLR, Allen 6-17H,
38439, conf, Hess, EN-Farhart-LW-156-93-0409H-1

Tuesday, March 28, 2023
: 86 for the month: 250 for the quarter, 250 for the year
39221, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Samples 4-35-26-159N-100W-MBH-LL,
39194, conf, CLR, Allen 7-17H,

RBN Energy: plans for energy development largely rest on fate of US permitting reform.

If you follow developments in the energy industry, you know that news about permitting for major infrastructure projects can sometimes read more like a horror story: 14 years to build an electric transmission line, a decade to get a mining permit, and the reality that some projects can be constructed in far less time than it takes to secure the required permits and work through any legal challenges. It’s a known problem with a lot of contributing factors, but no easy answers. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how permitting difficulties have become a flashpoint for all sorts of stakeholders — industry groups, environmental advocates, the general public, and politicians of all stripes. Our focus today will be on the current poster child of permitting challenges, Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), but we’ll also discuss how permitting setbacks complicate the development of all types of projects, from traditional oil and gas pipelines to initiatives at the heart of the energy transition.

Almost everyone acknowledges the benefit of having interested parties and stakeholders weigh in on major proposals to build or expand infrastructure, whether it be a new highway, an airport runway extension or an interstate oil or gas pipeline. Additionally, credible regulations and appropriate safeguards (such as the Clean Water Act’s focus on protecting the nation’s water supplies) are essential to the process. Still, the reality is that the permitting process for some important, badly needed projects can drag on for three, six or even nine years or longer. And permitting delays not only drive up project costs, they also put additional stress on infrastructure that’s already in place and prevent some projects from ever becoming a reality.