The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 02/20/23

Monday, February 20, 2023

GDPNow At 2.5 Percent -- February 16, 2023

From February 8, 2023:

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GDP Now

Link here.

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Update

Now tonight, GDPNow:

Focus On Fracking -- February 20, 2023

Link here.

The lede:

natural gas prices settle at a 28 month low;
commercial crude oil inventories are at a 20 month high after 8 straight increases and a record 12.1% jump YTD;
global oil production exceeded demand by 440,000 barrels per day in January, despite OPEC production that was 931,000 barrels per day below their reduced quota

The "fudge factor":

Furthermore, since last week’s “unaccounted for crude oil” was at [-702,000] barrels per day, that means there was a 2,669,000 barrel per day difference between this week's balance sheet error and the EIA's crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week's report are off by that much, thus rendering any such comparisons meaningless nonsense....

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- February 20, 2023

The wells:

39160, conf, Resonance Exploration, Resonance Huber 13-1H, South Westhope,

39085, conf, CLR, Woodrow 4-32H, West Capa, no production data,
39084, conf, CLR, Woodrow 3-32H1, West Capa, no production data,
39056, conf, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 14H, North Fork, no production data,
38746, conf, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-4-4H, Sand Creek, no production data,
38745, conf, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-4-12H, Sand Creek, no production data,
38417, conf, Liberty Resources, AZ W 158-93-13-24-1MBH, Enget Lake,

39089, conf, CLR, Colette 6-18H, Dollar Joe, no production data,
38934, conf, Kraken, Claire Rose LE 31-30-1H, Burg, no production data,
38744, conf, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153096-9-4-3H, Sand Creek, no production data,
38416, conf, Liberty Resources, AZ W 158-93-13-24 1MBH, Enget Lake,

38345, conf, Enerplus, Serve 149-92-31D-30H, Heart Butte,

38344, conf, Enerplus, Volley 149-92-31D-30H, Heart Butte,

36049, conf, Oasis, Foley Federal 5301 12-13 2B, Baker,

39088, conf, CLR, Colette 5-18H, Dollar Joe, no production data,
39019, conf, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 12H, North Fork, no production data,
38743, conf, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-4-11H, Sand Creek, no production data,
38404, conf, Kraken, Sidney 32-29 2TFH, Burg, no production data,
36050, conf, Oasis, Foley Federal 5301 12-13 3B, Baker,

39087, conf, CLR, Colette 4-18H, Dollar Joe, no production data,
39018, conf, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 11H, North Fork, no production data,
38693, conf, Enerplus, Lob 149-92-31D-30H-LL, Heart Butte,

38428, conf, Whiting, Nesheim 11-24HU, Sanish,

38405, conf, Kraken, Sidney 32-29 3H, Burg, no production data,
38343, conf, Enerplus, Ace 149-92-31D-30H, Heart Butte,

36048, conf, Oasis, Achilles 5301 12-13 3BX, Baker,

39017, conf, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 10H, Sand Creek, no production data,
38742, conf, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-4-10H,
38406, conf, Kraken, Sidney 32-29 4TFH, Burg, no production data,
8029 (no typo), conf, Empire North Dakota, Romsos 1-21, Starbuck

39016, conf, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 8H, North Fork, no production data,
36484, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 12-7-8-9H3A, Heart Butte, no production data,
39096, conf, Kraken, Jenna 28-33 2H, Burg, no production data,
39090, conf, CLR, Colette 2-18HSL, Dollar Joe, no production data,
38415, conf, Liberty Resources, AZ W 158-93-13-24-2MBH, Enget Lake,

36051, conf, Oasis, Foley Federal 5301 12-13 4B, Baker,

39095, conf, Kraken, Sidney LE 29-32 12TFH, Burg, no production data
39091, conf, CLR, Colette 3-18H, Dollar Joe, no production data,
37417, conf, Petro-Hunt, Blikre 158-93-6B-7-3H, East Tioga, no production data,
39094, conf, Kraken, Elias 21-16-9 2H, Burg, no production data,
37418, conf, Petro-Hunt, Powell 159-93-31C-30-3H, East Tioga, no production data,
39093, conf, Kraken, Lyman 20-17-8 4H, Burg, no production data,
38681, conf, Whiting, LBJ 24-14HU, Parshall

37419, conf, Petro-Hunt, Blikre 158-93-6B-7-2H, East Tioga, no production data,
39092, conf, Kraken, Lyman 20-17-8 3H, Burg, no production data,
37420, conf, Petro-Hunt, Powell 159-93-31C-30-2H, East Tioga, no production data,
38884, conf, WPX, Palo Pinto 20-17A, Squaw Creek, no production data,
38429, conf, Whiting, Nesheim 11-24H, Sanish,

38414, conf, Liberty Resources, AZ W 158-93-13-24-3MBH, Enget Lake,

38038, conf, Petroshale, Tahu 4TFH, Antelope, no production data,
38037, conf, Petroshale, Tahu 2TF2H, Antelope, no production data,
38035, conf, Petroshale, Tahu 3MBH, Antelope, no production data,
38034, conf, Petroshale, Tahu 3TFH, Antelope, no production data,
38033, conf, Petroshale, Tahu 2MBH, Antelope, no production data,
37421, conf, Petro-Hunt, Blikre 158-93-6B-7-1HS, East Tioga, no production data,

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- February 20, 2023

Wednesday, March 1, 2023: 98 for the month; 169 for the quarter, 169 for the year
39160, conf, Resonance Exploration, Resonance Huber 13-1H,
39085, conf, CLR, Woodrow 4-32H,
39084, conf, CLR, Woodrow 3-32H1,
39056, conf, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 14H,
38746, conf, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-4-4H,
38745, conf, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-4-12H,
38417, conf, Liberty Resources, AZ W 158-93-13-24-1MBH,

Tuesday, February 28, 2023: 91 for the month; 162 for the quarter, 162 for the year
39089, conf, CLR, Colette 6-18H,
38934, conf, Kraken, Claire Rose LE 31-30-1H,
38744, conf, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153096-9-4-3H,
38416, conf, Liberty Resources, AZ W 158-93-13-24 1MBH,
38345, conf, Enerplus, Serve 149-92-31D-30H,
38344, conf, Enerplus, Volley 149-92-31D-30H,
36049, conf, Oasis, Foley Federal 5301 12-13 2B,

Monday, February 27, 2023: 84 for the month; 155 for the quarter, 155 for the year
39088, conf, CLR, Colette 5-18H,
39019, conf, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 12H,
38743, conf, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-4-11H,
38404, conf, Kraken, Sidney 32-29 2TFH,
36050, conf, Oasis, Foley Federal 5301 12-13 3B,

Sunday, February 26, 2023: 79 for the month; 150 for the quarter, 150 for the year
39087, conf, CLR, Colette 4-18H,
39018, conf, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 11H ,
38693, conf, Enerplus, Lob 149-92-31D-30H-LL,
38428, conf, Whiting, Nesheim 11-24HU,
38405, conf, Kraken, Sidney 32-29 3H,
38343, conf, Enerplus, Ace 149-92-31D-30H,
36048, conf, Oasis, Achilles 5301 12-13 3BX,

Saturday, February 25, 2023: 72 for the month; 143 for the quarter, 143 for the year
39017, conf, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 10H,
38742, conf, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-4-10H,
38406, conf, Kraken, Sidney 32-29 4TFH,
8029 (no typo), conf, Empire North Dakota, Romsos 1-21,

Friday, February 24, 2023: 68 for the month; 139 for the quarter, 139 for the year
39016, conf, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 8H,
36484, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 12-7-8-9H3A,

Thursday, February 23, 2023: 66 for the month; 137 for the quarter, 137 for the year
39096, conf, Kraken, Jenna 28-33 2H,
39090, conf, CLR, Colette 2-18HSL,
38415, conf, Liberty Resources, AZ W 158-93-13-24-2MBH,
36051, conf, Oasis, Foley Federal 5301 12-13 4B,

Wednesday, February 22, 2023: 62 for the month; 133 for the quarter, 133 for the year
39095, conf, Kraken, Sidney LE 29-32 12TFH, Burg, no production data
39091, conf, CLR, Colette 3-18H, Dollar Joe, no production data,
37417, conf, Petro-Hunt, Blikre 158-93-6B-7-3H,

Tuesday, February 21, 2023: 59 for the month; 130 for the quarter, 130 for the year
39094, conf, Kraken, Elias 21-16-9 2H,
37418, conf, Petro-Hunt, Powell 159-93-31C-30-3H,

Monday, February 20, 2023: 57 for the month; 128 for the quarter, 128 for the year
39093, conf, Kraken, Lyman 20-17-8 4H,
38681, conf, Whiting, LBJ 24-14HU,
37419, conf, Petro-Hunt, Blikre 158-93-6B-7-2H,

Sunday, February 19, 2023: 54 for the month; 125 for the quarter, 125 for the year
39092, conf, Kraken, Lyman 20-17-8 3H,
37420, conf, Petro-Hunt, Powell 159-93-31C-30-2H,

Saturday, February 18, 2023: 52 for the month; 123 for the quarter, 123 for the year
38884, conf, WPX, Palo Pinto 20-17A,
38429, conf, Whiting, Nesheim 11-24H,
38414, conf, Liberty Resources, AZ W 158-93-13-24-3MBH,
38038, conf, Petroshale, Tahu 4TFH,
38037, conf, Petroshale, Tahu 2TF2H,
38035, conf, Petroshale, Tahu 3MBH,
38034, conf, Petroshale, Tahu 3TFH,
38033, conf, Petroshale, Tahu 2MBH,
37421, conf, Petro-Hunt, Blikre 158-93-6B-7-1HS,

Has President Biden Departed Ukraine? 11:59 A.M. CT -- February 20, 2023

The top screenshot was taken just a little bit (maybe an hour?) before the bottom screenshot.

In the top screenshot, the two AWACS were in trail headed east, toward Ukraine.

I had not found the tanker after looking all morning.

Now, in the lower photo, the AWACS are missing, and the KC-135R -- refueling tanker -- is in its customary refueling oval.

This is what one would expect. The president was on the ground in Ukraine for less than six hours.

"We've" never seen fighter a/c at these tracking sites. The fighters have turned off their transponders (SOP) and are probably now re-fueling and en-route to catch up with Air Force 1 and the AWACS or some variation thereof. The exact play-by-play: macht nichts.

Currently the #1 and #2 most tracked a/c on FlightRadar24: