Dashboards With February, 2023, Data Posted

Updated for February 2023, data. 

EIA dashboards:

• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf

Bakken:

Permian:

Eagle Ford:

Rig Productivitiy In The Permian -- February 13, 2023

Link here.

We see the same thing in the "dashboards."

There It Is: $80 After-Hours; Biden Administration To Sell 26 Million More Barrels From The SPR -- February 13, 2023

I missed the memo. LOL.

The last memo I had from the Biden administration:

• no more sales from the SPR;
• time to start refilling when WTI drops to $72.

But now, this is being reported. I have an idea what's going but I grow tired of the pushback so I will keep my thoughts to myself.

Links are everywhere, most without a paywall, unlike the one below. The release is required by congressional mandate, a law passed in 2015. 

Link here.

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 45. 

WTI: $80.14.

Natural gas: $2.405.

Four new permits, #39654 - #39657, inclusive:

• Operator: Hess
• Field: Wheelock (Williams)
• Comments:
• Hess has permits for four Bergstrom wells, NWNW 27-156-98; 
• to be sited 610 FNL and between 384 FWL and 483 FWL;

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 38537, 3,005, MRO, Porter 31-18TFH, Bailley, t--; cum 151K 12/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2022	30	8232	8116	15656	9039	7700	113
BAKKEN	11-2022	27	12050	12089	25232	11514	10169	213
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	17535	17453	30725	21943	18631	1247
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	20010	19946	24100	20883	20074	102
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	24362	24306	29608	21209	20176	282
BAKKEN	7-2022	28	22790	22787	47691	19329	18378	262
BAKKEN	6-2022	29	26488	26723	47420	21034	20026	254
BAKKEN	5-2022	18	30363	29943	58391	25717	22783	1019

• 38538, 2,788, MRO, Annabelle 21-18H, Bailey, t--; cum 165K 12/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2022	31	5977	5874	7613	4021	3137	46
BAKKEN	11-2022	28	8102	8004	8307	4693	3895	82
BAKKEN	10-2022	24	6217	6327	7073	4780	3827	256
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	16084	16026	24209	14039	13496	67
BAKKEN	8-2022	30	18984	19051	20037	17581	16701	258
BAKKEN	7-2022	28	31185	31181	30031	25253	24003	350
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	36146	36473	48142	30035	28607	381
BAKKEN	5-2022	29	41928	41348	87485	31089	27752	763

•  38539, 4,545, MRO, Eliza 21-18TFH, Bailey, t--; cum 165K 12/22;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2022	30	4433	4434	7169	7034	6238	91
BAKKEN	11-2022	26	8658	8712	12197	12093	10993	230
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	13747	13694	27688	17146	14554	974
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	16459	16442	24747	18093	17373	108
BAKKEN	8-2022	30	23530	23523	33272	23330	22185	319
BAKKEN	7-2022	28	27757	27745	47905	23634	22561	227
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	30977	31302	52238	25967	24706	362
BAKKEN	5-2022	27	39208	38830	80747	29978	25966	1731
BAKKEN	4-2022	3	164	0	2207	307	68	217

Atmospheric CO2 -- February 13, 2023

Link here.

 

Dr Strangelove And Investing -- Mid-Morning Trading -- February 13, 2023

Bullish: for mom-and-pop retail investors, long oil, nothing could be more bullish, previously posted, link here: 

“I propose that we quadruple the tax on corporate stock buybacks to encourage long-term investments instead,” Biden says, adding that these oil companies will “still make a considerable profit” after the suggested tax hike.

Market:

• oil: $79.44.
• CVX: down a bit
• PSX: down slightly
  
• DVN: down slightly;
• MPC: down 1%
• ENB: up slightly
• EPD: up slightly; mostly flat;
  
• semis
• TSM: up slightly;
• INTC: up nicely today
• AAPL: up a remarkable 1.14%; up $1.75; market cap at $2.42 trillion;
• MSFT: up a remarkable 3.54%; up over $9; market cap at $2.03 trillion;
  
• streaming wars
• CMCSA: up a remarkable 1.45%
• DIS: down 0.75% on a day the market is very, very strong -- suggesting again, that once analysts really took a look at the Bob Iger interview with CNBC last week, "there was no there there" and in fact the picture was ore grim than the smile Bob Iger had on his face. Fool me once ...
• EVs (don't even get me started):
• GOEV (Canoo): down almost 7% today; trading well below a buck now;
• ARVL: down over 4% today;
• LCID: down slightly; trading right at $10
• RIVN: down almost a percent -- again, on a day that the market is very, very strong; trading just below $19
• F: up 1.61% -- having a great day
• GM: up a bit;
• big cap, recovery:
• DE: up a bit;
• UNP: up nicely; up 1.45% trading at $208;
• great news for the rails: there will be more derailments; 
  

Russia "War" Budget -- 2023 - 2025 -- Signed December 5, 2023

Trivia: Putin signed the "war" budget the day the December 5, 2022, sanctions went into effect. 

The Russian budget: https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2022-12-12/russias-war-budget-2023-2025. Archived. This is an incredibly bleak report / analysis. 

Russian National Wealth Fund -- Russia's sovereign wealth fund: wiki. 

Russia's sovereign wealth fund: wiki.

Previously reported:

Jan 18 (Reuters) - Russia's National Wealth Fund shrank to $148.4 billion as of Jan. 1, down $38.1 billion in a month, as the government took out cash to plug its budget deficit, data showed on Wednesday. The ministry said it had spent 2.41 trillion roubles ($35.1 billion) from the NWF, a rainy day fund that accumulates oil revenues, to cover the deficit in December. Along with heavy state borrowing at domestic debt auctions, the NWF - which was originally intended to support the pension system - has become the main source of financing for the budget deficit since Russia invaded Ukraine last year and was hit by waves of unprecedented Western sanctions.

Video: Breath-Taking Northern Lights, North Dakota -- February 13, 2023

Link here: https://www.foxnews.com/video/6320315209112.

Bloomberg's Daily Op-Ed -- Russia Crude Oil Production Cut -- February 13, 2023

This is a much better analysis of the Russian budget than provided by the comments below: https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2022-12-12/russias-war-budget-2023-2025. Archived. This is an incredibly bleak report / analysis.

In the op-ed below:

• one glaring data point left out (actually two);
• writer does not explicitly state but I certainly infer she is part of "group think" when it comes to the reason Russia gives for cutting production;
• and, then this non-sequitur with no explanation for her opinion: "... and yet, the past few days have laid bare Moscow’s weaknesses, too."

I assume the weakness is that Russia was unable to thwart the EU's decision to go ahead with price caps despite threat of production cut by Russia.

From Bloomberg today: 

Russia’s plan to cut oil production by 500,000 barrels a day next month — roughly 5% of its January output and 0.5% of global supply — was a show of strength. In response to what Kremlin officials call the West’s “destructive energy policy,” this was supposed to be a reminder that President Vladimir Putin still holds crucial hydrocarbon cards.

And yet, the past few days have laid bare Moscow’s weaknesses, too.

Friday’s announcement was no shock. Russia has been making liberal use of the energy weapon for months. Officials, and indeed Putin himself, explicitly threatened output cuts in response to sanctions and “stupid” price caps. Moscow does have an agreement to target a certain level of supply as part of the OPEC+ oil producers’ club, but unilateral reductions are not unheard of.

It is, though, bad news for the global economy, pushing up the oil price and threatening to stoke inflation at a time when Chinese consumption is recovering. Russia’s partners in OPEC+, meanwhile, are more concerned with keeping output steady than filling the gap.

Russia may also cut further. Alexander Isakov of Bloomberg Economics points out that early February production stood at 10.9 million barrels a day, but the budget was built around 9.8 million barrels — leaving space for more pain to be inflicted.

For Investors Only -- Nothing About The Bakken -- February 13, 2023

MSFT: up 2%; back over $2 trillion market cap; trailing only AAPL.

AAPL: up sllightly.

Remember: we're in a recession. 

The new buzz:

• "no landing"
• "rolling recessions"
  

**********************
Europe: Natural Gas

All that hand wringing:

Link here.

It's Over -- The Win Goes To Harrison Butker -- February 13, 2023

I did not watch the game, but I saw the video replay of this and agreed completely -- clearly, it was holding, and clearly the receiver was on his way to a touchdown-winning play. 

I don't think folks understand why players hold, but that's another issue.

So not only did the Chiefs' receiver -- whose name I did not catch -- lose that stat -- but it was a lot of stats lost due to being held:

• another pass reception
• another pass reception in a post-season game
• another pass reception in a Super Bowl
• a winning touchdown reception
• a winning touchdown reception in a post-season game
• a winning touchdown reception in a Super Bowl
• reception yardage; and,
• I would have remembered his name
  

**************************
First Ride On Light Rail, The MAX, Portland, OR

Of Interest Today: The BR Saddle Butte Wells; A Neighboring Well At 600K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- February 13, 2023

Of the wells coming off confidential list today, the one that interests me most:

• 38974, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 44-9MBH-R, t--; cum--;

The producing well in the area that is of interest

• 30870, 343, BR, Saddle Butte 21-16 TFH-2SH, four sections, t7/17; cum 604K 11/22; went offline 12/22; production profile in 2018 - 2019;

Production profile, 2020:

BAKKEN	11-2020	30	9813	9806	9836	41970	35711	5905
BAKKEN	10-2020	31	13289	13446	11877	41060	30705	9942
BAKKEN	9-2020	26	13758	13619	11528	36495	34370	1480
BAKKEN	8-2020	18	11992	11810	7363	22918	20581	1682
BAKKEN	7-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	0	0	63	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	14	4206	4143	2888	12353	12055	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	0	0	43	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	25	2438	2507	2144	2260	1168	1085
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	7326	7344	4922	11657	11148	41

Production profile, 2018 - 2019:

BAKKEN	6-2019	28	26740	26727	15841	60393	51747	8458
BAKKEN	5-2019	29	22018	21899	13925	49080	34836	14126
BAKKEN	4-2019	29	13175	13221	8478	31271	20703	10505
BAKKEN	3-2019	23	5476	5511	2075	10032	2357	7651
BAKKEN	2-2019	7	1794	1976	473	1506	0	1444
BAKKEN	1-2019	13	3587	3658	2121	1337	805	471
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	8927	8863	4604	14114	11115	2819
BAKKEN	11-2018	17	4518	4286	3104	9445	9380	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	30	7062	6933	4566	12527	12458	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	25	1159	1141	754	7094	7053	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	0	0	155	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	14	7836	7943	4798	13975	5857	7980
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	23977	23997	15306	40076	29383	10499
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	28684	28735	14673	52803	44497	8014
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	14894	14889	6481	31268	30890	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	24030	23894	14615	47868	47559	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	27	24645	24661	14077	34771	20470	14133

The map:

As Many As Eleven Wells Came Off Confidential List Over The Weekend -- February 13, 2023

CVX: dividend. Nothing new here; previously announced; simply an "op-ed."

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 46.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $79.72. "Red" overnight, back to "flat" this a.m.

Natural gas: $2.580.

Monday, February 13, 2023: 34 for the month; 104 for the quarter, 104 for the year
38974, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 44-9MBH-R,
38392, conf, Whiting, Rudman 11-12H,

Sunday, February 12, 2023: 32 for the month; 102 for the quarter, 102 for the year
39008, conf, CLR, Rhonda 9-28H,
36829, conf, BR, Three Washers 2E TFH-ULW,
36828, conf, BR, Three Rivers 2D MBH,
36827, conf, BR, Three Rivers 2C TFH,
36826, conf, BR, Three Rivers 2B TFH,
36825, conf, BR, Three Rivers 2A MBH

Saturday, February 11, 2023: 26 for the month; 96 for the quarter, 96 for the year
39009, conf, CLR, Rhonda 8-28H1,
38427, conf, Hess, HA-Dahl-152-95-0706H-8,
38165, conf, Hess, BB-Budahn-150-95-0506H-8,

RBN Energy: RBN's five-year natural gas market outlook, part 2. 

The CME/NYMEX Henry Hub prompt futures price has fallen precipitously in recent months and 2023 has the potential to be one of the most bearish in recent history. But longer term, the stage is set for tighter balances, price spikes and increased volatility. After a slowdown in 2022-23, LNG export capacity additions will come fast and furious over the next several years. As they do, they will outpace production growth, which will increasingly depend on pipeline and other midstream expansions. In other words, 2023 will be the last aftershock of Shale Era surpluses. We got a taste of what that could look like in 2022, but just how out-of-whack could the gas market get? In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the supply and demand trends that will shape the gas market over the next five years.