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Monday, February 13, 2023

There It Is: $80 After-Hours; Biden Administration To Sell 26 Million More Barrels From The SPR -- February 13, 2023

I missed the memo. LOL.

The last memo I had from the Biden administration:

  • no more sales from the SPR;
  • time to start refilling when WTI drops to $72.

But now, this is being reported. I have an idea what's going but I grow tired of the pushback so I will keep my thoughts to myself.

Links are everywhere, most without a paywall, unlike the one below. The release is required by congressional mandate, a law passed in 2015. 

Link here.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 45. 

WTI: $80.14.

Natural gas: $2.405.

Four new permits, #39654 - #39657, inclusive:

  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Wheelock (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Hess has permits for four Bergstrom wells, NWNW 27-156-98; 
      • to be sited 610 FNL and between 384 FWL and 483 FWL;

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 38537, 3,005, MRO, Porter 31-18TFH, Bailley, t--; cum 151K 12/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-202230823281161565690397700113
BAKKEN11-2022271205012089252321151410169213
BAKKEN10-20223117535174533072521943186311247
BAKKEN9-2022302001019946241002088320074102
BAKKEN8-2022312436224306296082120920176282
BAKKEN7-2022282279022787476911932918378262
BAKKEN6-2022292648826723474202103420026254
BAKKEN5-20221830363299435839125717227831019
  • 38538, 2,788, MRO, Annabelle 21-18H, Bailey, t--; cum 165K 12/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-2022315977587476134021313746
BAKKEN11-2022288102800483074693389582
BAKKEN10-20222462176327707347803827256
BAKKEN9-202230160841602624209140391349667
BAKKEN8-2022301898419051200371758116701258
BAKKEN7-2022283118531181300312525324003350
BAKKEN6-2022303614636473481423003528607381
BAKKEN5-2022294192841348874853108927752763
  •  38539, 4,545, MRO, Eliza 21-18TFH, Bailey, t--; cum 165K 12/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-2022304433443471697034623891
BAKKEN11-20222686588712121971209310993230
BAKKEN10-2022311374713694276881714614554974
BAKKEN9-2022301645916442247471809317373108
BAKKEN8-2022302353023523332722333022185319
BAKKEN7-2022282775727745479052363422561227
BAKKEN6-2022303097731302522382596724706362
BAKKEN5-20222739208388308074729978259661731
BAKKEN4-202231640220730768217

Dr Strangelove And Investing -- Mid-Morning Trading -- February 13, 2023

Bullish: for mom-and-pop retail investors, long oil, nothing could be more bullish, previously posted, link here

“I propose that we quadruple the tax on corporate stock buybacks to encourage long-term investments instead,” Biden says, adding that these oil companies will “still make a considerable profit” after the suggested tax hike.

Market:

  • oil: $79.44.
    • CVX: down a bit
    • PSX: down slightly
    • DVN: down slightly;
    • MPC: down 1%
    • ENB: up slightly
    • EPD: up slightly; mostly flat;
  • semis
  • TSM: up slightly;
    • INTC: up nicely today
    • AAPL: up a remarkable 1.14%; up $1.75; market cap at $2.42 trillion;
    • MSFT: up a remarkable 3.54%; up over $9; market cap at $2.03 trillion;
  • streaming wars
    • CMCSA: up a remarkable 1.45%
    • DIS: down 0.75% on a day the market is very, very strong -- suggesting again, that once analysts really took a look at the Bob Iger interview with CNBC last week, "there was no there there" and in fact the picture was ore grim than the smile Bob Iger had on his face. Fool me once ...
  • EVs (don't even get me started):
    • GOEV (Canoo): down almost 7% today; trading well below a buck now;
    • ARVL: down over 4% today;
    • LCID: down slightly; trading right at $10
    • RIVN: down almost a percent -- again, on a day that the market is very, very strong; trading just below $19
    • F: up 1.61% -- having a great day
    • GM: up a bit;
  • big cap, recovery:

Russia "War" Budget -- 2023 - 2025 -- Signed December 5, 2023

Trivia: Putin signed the "war" budget the day the December 5, 2022, sanctions went into effect. 

The Russian budget: https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2022-12-12/russias-war-budget-2023-2025. Archived. This is an incredibly bleak report / analysis. 

Russian National Wealth Fund -- Russia's sovereign wealth fund: wiki

Russia's sovereign wealth fund: wiki.

Previously reported:


Jan 18 (Reuters) - Russia's National Wealth Fund shrank to $148.4 billion as of Jan. 1, down $38.1 billion in a month, as the government took out cash to plug its budget deficit, data showed on Wednesday. The ministry said it had spent 2.41 trillion roubles ($35.1 billion) from the NWF, a rainy day fund that accumulates oil revenues, to cover the deficit in December. Along with heavy state borrowing at domestic debt auctions, the NWF - which was originally intended to support the pension system - has become the main source of financing for the budget deficit since Russia invaded Ukraine last year and was hit by waves of unprecedented Western sanctions.

Video: Breath-Taking Northern Lights, North Dakota -- February 13, 2023

Link here: https://www.foxnews.com/video/6320315209112.

Bloomberg's Daily Op-Ed -- Russia Crude Oil Production Cut -- February 13, 2023

This is a much better analysis of the Russian budget than provided by the comments below: https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2022-12-12/russias-war-budget-2023-2025. Archived. This is an incredibly bleak report / analysis.

In the op-ed below:

  • one glaring data point left out (actually two);
  • writer does not explicitly state but I certainly infer she is part of "group think" when it comes to the reason Russia gives for cutting production;
  • and, then this non-sequitur with no explanation for her opinion: "... and yet, the past few days have laid bare Moscow’s weaknesses, too."

I assume the weakness is that Russia was unable to thwart the EU's decision to go ahead with price caps despite threat of production cut by Russia.

From Bloomberg today

Russia’s plan to cut oil production by 500,000 barrels a day next month — roughly 5% of its January output and 0.5% of global supply — was a show of strength. In response to what Kremlin officials call the West’s “destructive energy policy,” this was supposed to be a reminder that President Vladimir Putin still holds crucial hydrocarbon cards.

And yet, the past few days have laid bare Moscow’s weaknesses, too.

Friday’s announcement was no shock. Russia has been making liberal use of the energy weapon for months. Officials, and indeed Putin himself, explicitly threatened output cuts in response to sanctions and “stupid” price caps. Moscow does have an agreement to target a certain level of supply as part of the OPEC+ oil producers’ club, but unilateral reductions are not unheard of.

It is, though, bad news for the global economy, pushing up the oil price and threatening to stoke inflation at a time when Chinese consumption is recovering. Russia’s partners in OPEC+, meanwhile, are more concerned with keeping output steady than filling the gap.

Russia may also cut further. Alexander Isakov of Bloomberg Economics points out that early February production stood at 10.9 million barrels a day, but the budget was built around 9.8 million barrels — leaving space for more pain to be inflicted.

For Investors Only -- Nothing About The Bakken -- February 13, 2023

MSFT: up 2%; back over $2 trillion market cap; trailing only AAPL.

AAPL: up sllightly.

Remember: we're in a recession. 

The new buzz:

  • "no landing"
  • "rolling recessions"

**********************
Europe: Natural Gas

All that hand wringing:


Link here.

It's Over -- The Win Goes To Harrison Butker -- February 13, 2023

I did not watch the game, but I saw the video replay of this and agreed completely -- clearly, it was holding, and clearly the receiver was on his way to a touchdown-winning play. 

I don't think folks understand why players hold, but that's another issue.

So not only did the Chiefs' receiver -- whose name I did not catch -- lose that stat -- but it was a lot of stats lost due to being held:

  • another pass reception
  • another pass reception in a post-season game
  • another pass reception in a Super Bowl
  • a winning touchdown reception
  • a winning touchdown reception in a post-season game
  • a winning touchdown reception in a Super Bowl
  • reception yardage; and,
  • I would have remembered his name

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First Ride On Light Rail, The MAX, Portland, OR

Of Interest Today: The BR Saddle Butte Wells; A Neighboring Well At 600K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- February 13, 2023

Of the wells coming off confidential list today, the one that interests me most:

  • 38974, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 44-9MBH-R, t--; cum--;

The producing well in the area that is of interest

  • 30870, 343, BR, Saddle Butte 21-16 TFH-2SH, four sections, t7/17; cum 604K 11/22; went offline 12/22; production profile in 2018 - 2019;

Production profile, 2020:

BAKKEN11-20203098139806983641970357115905
BAKKEN10-20203113289134461187741060307059942
BAKKEN9-20202613758136191152836495343701480
BAKKEN8-2020181199211810736322918205811682
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-202000630000
BAKKEN4-20201442064143288812353120550
BAKKEN3-202000430000
BAKKEN2-202025243825072144226011681085
BAKKEN1-202031732673444922116571114841

Production profile, 2018 - 2019:

BAKKEN6-20192826740267271584160393517478458
BAKKEN5-201929220182189913925490803483614126
BAKKEN4-20192913175132218478312712070310505
BAKKEN3-2019235476551120751003223577651
BAKKEN2-2019717941976473150601444
BAKKEN1-2019133587365821211337805471
BAKKEN12-20183189278863460414114111152819
BAKKEN11-201817451842863104944593800
BAKKEN10-20183070626933456612527124580
BAKKEN9-20182511591141754709470530
BAKKEN8-2018001550000
BAKKEN7-2018147836794347981397558577980
BAKKEN6-201830239772399715306400762938310499
BAKKEN5-20183128684287351467352803444978014
BAKKEN4-2018301489414889648131268308900
BAKKEN3-20183124030238941461547868475590
BAKKEN2-201827246452466114077347712047014133

The map:


As Many As Eleven Wells Came Off Confidential List Over The Weekend -- February 13, 2023

CVX: dividend. Nothing new here; previously announced; simply an "op-ed."

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 46.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $79.72. "Red" overnight, back to "flat" this a.m.

Natural gas: $2.580.

Monday, February 13, 2023: 34 for the month; 104 for the quarter, 104 for the year
38974, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 44-9MBH-R,
38392, conf, Whiting, Rudman 11-12H,

Sunday, February 12, 2023: 32 for the month; 102 for the quarter, 102 for the year
39008, conf, CLR, Rhonda 9-28H,
36829, conf, BR, Three Washers 2E TFH-ULW,
36828, conf, BR, Three Rivers 2D MBH,
36827, conf, BR, Three Rivers 2C TFH,
36826, conf, BR, Three Rivers 2B TFH,
36825, conf, BR, Three Rivers 2A MBH

Saturday, February 11, 2023: 26 for the month; 96 for the quarter, 96 for the year
39009, conf, CLR, Rhonda 8-28H1,
38427, conf, Hess, HA-Dahl-152-95-0706H-8,
38165, conf, Hess, BB-Budahn-150-95-0506H-8,

RBN Energy: RBN's five-year natural gas market outlook, part 2

The CME/NYMEX Henry Hub prompt futures price has fallen precipitously in recent months and 2023 has the potential to be one of the most bearish in recent history. But longer term, the stage is set for tighter balances, price spikes and increased volatility. After a slowdown in 2022-23, LNG export capacity additions will come fast and furious over the next several years. As they do, they will outpace production growth, which will increasingly depend on pipeline and other midstream expansions. In other words, 2023 will be the last aftershock of Shale Era surpluses. We got a taste of what that could look like in 2022, but just how out-of-whack could the gas market get? In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the supply and demand trends that will shape the gas market over the next five years.