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Thursday, February 2, 2023

Taking A Break -- February 2, 2023

It never quits. There is so much to blog. But at some point, I need to relax.

Apparently this is just part 1:

If so, here is part 2:

I like this particular video / arrangement because I get such a kick out of sharing information about the various instruments with Sophia.

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The Book Page

With the James Bond medley in the background, I enjoy paging through and catching up on some Italian cooking hints in the Essentials of Classic Italian Cooking: 30th Anniversary Edition, Marcella Hazan. 

The preferred tomato for pasta sauce: the plum tomato

Salmon foam looks easy, delicious and very intriguing. I'm sure I've had it before; I just don't recall. Most likely I had it on a ferry from Norway to Denmark when I was in eighth grade.

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Reminiscing

Our living space continues to shrink around us. We live in a one-bedroom apartment -- which is how it's advertised but it's not quite accurate -- the one-bedroom apartment also has a small windowless den which my wife uses as her art room. She really needs a much larger studio but it is what it is.

In the big scheme of things, this is really how I've lived throughout my life.

After graduating from high school, I lived in a college dormitory room for four years. Then my first two years in medical school, a two-bedroom apartment with a fellow student on the north side of Los Angeles.

Non-stop from 1979 through 2007 I pretty much lived in a "call room" in whatever hospital I was assigned. 

Some call rooms, that I recall:

  • Los Angeles County Hospital; for two years; I remember doing "histories and physicals" in my sleep. A most grueling two years, but one I still cherish.
  • then, Travis AFB, CA: three years again, often in the call room down the hall from the emergency room or the call room upstairs on the pediatrics unit. I remember the night the pediatric intern -- a really, really close friend -- working the emergency room -- called me for advice after a six-month-old infant was inadvertently given an adult dose of epinephrine -- don't ask; everything worked out fine.
  • Grand Forks AFB, ND: the call room here was on the in-patient unit. I still remember the two-year child that I cared for, for two years, often in the emergency room in the middle of the night who ultimately died of an under-developed heart; she should have had a heart transplant; I let her down, I suppose, but at the time not even the cardiologists knew. Responding to an in-flight emergency when an SR-71 landed was eventful, to say the least, but pales in comparison to the memories of that wonderful little two-year old.
  • Thirteen years in fixed hospitals, field hospitals, tents, while overseas: Germany, England, Turkey, Morocco, the Gambia, northern Iraq. Most memorable, perhaps, several of us sorting out ann incredibly sick young pregnant woman in Turkey -- we were near the end of the medical chain and it took our internal medicine doc, family practice doc, flight surgeon (me), and all the support personnel to make the malarial diagnosis, stabilize her and get her on an an air-evac to Ramstein, Germany. She did fine. Again, another night -- all night -- in and out of the call room.
  • In northern Iraq, the young Kurdish woman with, ultimately, fatal burns from a kerosene fire; all I had were pain medications -- but she would not have survived even in a burn unit in in east Texas. Another "call" room in a "bomb shelter" of some sort -- interestingly I have no memories of where I actually slept that week -- I was at the makeshift "bedside" of that patient titrating IV anesthetic medication.
  • At the end of thirteen years overseas, I was at the pinnacle of my career though I still had nearly a decade left to serve. As a high-ranking officer I was given a five-star billet in which to live for a couple of weeks during the transition back to the states. My family had already returned to the states -- I did not realize how depressed I was at the time -- I was giving up the best job of my career -- commander of the flagship hospital of the Air Combat Command, Langley AFB, VA. I couldn't take the five-star room in billeting -- I slept on the couch in my office in the hospital, for about two weeks. No one knew. I read Hunter S Thompson's Hell's Angels. Again, two weeks in a small office, 24/7. Hunter S Thompson kept me going. I was in my element -- 24/7 in the hospital for two weeks, immediately available for anything. No family distractions. Just "work." I loved it, and I knew it was all coming to an end.
  • Back in the states, I was pretty much done with clinical work and when I wasn't in my office at work, I spent most of my time in my office at home.
  • The highlight during those years were temporary duty assignments to northern England as the only physician responsible 24/7 for a remote base there. Again, I was offered a very nice room on the economy, an English inn straight out of Lord of the Rings, but I took a room -- as a senior officer -- in a dormitory for single and unaccompanied enlisted men. Again, living 24/7 in a small call room.
  • And now, I feel right at home in a small one-bedroom apartment -- which sometimes seems unnecessarily big -- in an easy chair next to the bed with a large-screen television and Amazon Fire TV stick, a 27-inch Apple desktop computer, a MacBook Air, a large iPad, and an iPhone, surrounded by the books I'm currently reading.
  • I can't imagine living in a McMansion, although I sometimes fantasize about a party room on the second terrace overlooking a huge swimming pool on the first terrace, with the master bedroom on the third terrace overlooking the entire enchilada.

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The Last Thing On My Mind

In a faraway place, a long time ago, I had an intense platonic relationship with a most wonderful woman. 

The most important thing I ever said to her: if I ever say anything that can be interpreted two different ways, I only mean(t) it in a good way. 

It prevented a lot of "bad" moments. Link here.

New England -- February 2, 2023

Link here.

Meredith Angwin seems to be a "straight shooter," as they say. 

Link here.

The MRO A-C-G-J-M-2P-S Pad -- The Amandus Pad -- Killdeer Oil Field

Locator: 10010MROAMANDUS.

From daily activity report, February 2, 2023.

Production updated: March 5, 2024.

Eight new permits, #39627 - #39634, inclusive:

  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Killdeer (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • MRO has permits for the following wells in NENE 17-145-94: Gilbertson, Amandus, Patterson, Mueller, Cooley, Sorenson, Penticoff, and Jendrick; 
        • to be sited 352 FNL and betwween 759 FEL and 1039 FEL;

The graphics:


End-Of-Day Earnings: AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, And More -- February 2, 2023

 

MacRumors: AAPL earnings.

AAPL: link here.

AAPL: closed at $150.82 - earnings after hours: a miss on top and bottom lines. Press release.

  • EPS: $1.88 vs $1.94
  • revenue: $117.1 billion vs $121.1 billion
  • first miss since 2016
  • gross margin: 42.96% vs 42.95%
  • a miss in all categories except iPads and services
  • iPad -- wow
    • $9.4 billion vs $7.76 billion
  • new all-time services record
  • huge relief: I expected a bloodbath
    • considering all that went on in China this past month, a huge relief
  • ticker -- AAPL
    • AAPL up 3.7% today; 
    • 3:27 p.m. CT, three minutes before release: up 0.12%;
    • 3:29 p.m. CT, one minute before release, down 0.15%
    • 3:31 p.m. CT, one minute after release: down 3.82%
    • 3:40 p.m. CT, ten minutes after release: down 3.93%

F: huge miss.

  • compare F to GM (which reported earlier)
  • F off almost 7%

Starbucks:

  • off almost 4%

AMZN: beat.

  • EPS: $1.39.
  • $149 billion vs $145 billion
  • subscription services
    • $9.2 billion vs $8.8 billion
  • huge 3rd party revenue
    • $36 billion vs $32 billion forecast

Qualcom:

  • up over 2%

GOOG: misses on top and bottom line

  • EPS: 105 vs 1.18 
  • shares off 4.3% after hours

YouTube: misses; owned by Alphabet.

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Today

Selected companies:

  • Eli Lilly (LLY): before market open; $1.78; $1.94 vs $1.83; huge beat on EPS; $2.00, but misses on top line (sort of); great guidance; type II diabetes drug “through the roof”; obesity drug also unprecedented results; easy to find volunteers for more studies required by FDA.
  • COP: before market open; $2.18; $2.86 vs $2.72; misses by 19 cents; declares regular dividend of 51 cents; variable, 60 cents.
  • CAH: before market open; $1.14; $1.21 vs $1.13; actual, $1.32: revenue also beat (Zacks); 
  • GOOGL: after market close; $1.18; $1.14 vs $1.14;
  • AMZN: after market close: 17 cents; 19 cents vs 15 cents;
  • AAPL: after market close: $1.94; $1.96 vs $1.93;
  • SBUX: after market close, 77 cents; 81 cents vs 77 cents;
  • QCOM: after market close, $2.35; $2.42 vs $2.35.
  • HSY: $1.77; time not supplied; $1.82 vs $1.78;
  • F: 62 cents; time not supplied; 57 cents vs 60 cents;

MRO With Eight New Permits -- Oil, The Osage, and The FBI -- February 2, 2023

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 45.

Eight new permits, #39627 - #39634, inclusive:

  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Killdeer (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • MRO has permits for the following wells in NENE 17-145-94: Gilbertson, Amandus, Patterson, Mueller, Cooley, Sorenson, Penticoff, and Jendrick; 
        • to be sited 352 FNL and betwween 759 FEL and 1039 FEL;

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The Book Page

The movie adaptation starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Robert De Niro will be released this spring, 2023.

See "inside the book" here.

Link here.


An excerpt from the book:

BP -- Oops -- We Did It Again -- Update -- February 2, 2023

Updates

February 7, 2023



Original Post

See this Bloomberg note.

BP reconsiders. LOL. 


 Admitting he was wrong
. Link here.

Most likely this was one of BP's investments, link here:

Global green energy company Siemens Gamesa reported Thursday that it had lost a staggering $967 million during the three-month period from between October to December. That's just three months. 
The Germany-based company, which dubs itself as "the global leader in offshore power generation," noted the wind industry has faced various unfavorable pressures leading to negative growth in recent months and years.
The company added that governments would need to further assist the industry to ensure future positive growth.

A reader suggests we start a "GoFundMe" page.

BP was the worse investment decision I ever made. What was I thinking? Fortunately I got in and out in less than a week -- years ago.

In case you didn't already go to the Bloomberg link:

For years, energy experts modeling the impact of 2050 net zero targets on oil demand had the advantage that the deadline, and the incremental steps to getting there, were a long way off.
If time proved their scenarios wrong, they’d be long forgotten anyway. But now, those first intermediate waymarks are around the corner, and they look increasingly farfetched.
Earlier this week, BP Plc published its annual Energy Outlook, presenting three scenarios — not forecasts — for how oil demand may evolve
The Net Zero path, broadly in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement, is difficult to reconcile with current trends.
In such a narrative, BP’s model shows global oil consumption collapsing to 21 million barrels a day by midcentury, down from about 98 million today. Ignore 2050 and focus instead on the intervening milestones, starting with 2025.
In just two years’ time, BP’s Net Zero scenario sees oil demand 4 million barrels a day lower than it is now. That would mean removing the equivalent of Germany’s entire consumption in 2024 and repeating that feat again the following year
Every oil forecast I’ve seen shows demand rising in 2023, and the few 2024 projections already published — including one from the US government — see growth continuing.
Looking further ahead, BP’s Net Zero readout suggests demand would need to plunge a further 9 million barrels a day from 2026 to 2030, falling to 85 million a day by the end of the decade. That equates to eliminating the consumption of France each year and, on the final year, striking out Italy as well.Then the really difficult period starts.
The scenario sees the world using just 70 million barrels a day in 2035, requiring the annual removal of 3 million a day. That equals the demand of Japan, currently the world’s fourth-largest consumer.
Net zero models look increasingly at odds with short-term trends. It’s possible oil demand can sink by 2050, but is it going to plummet in a matter of months and keep falling precipitously every year for the next decade? No.
-- Javier Blas, Bloomberg Opinion

Today’s Take: Oil’s Pipe Dream -- Opinion -- Bloomberg -- February 2, 2023


A world still thirsty for oil. Photographer: GABRIEL BOUYS/AFP via Getty Images

For years, energy experts modeling the impact of 2050 net zero targets on oil demand had the advantage that the deadline, and the incremental steps to getting there, were a long way off. If time proved their scenarios wrong, they’d be long forgotten anyway. 

But now, those first intermediate waymarks are around the corner, and they look increasingly farfetched.

Earlier this week, BP Plc published its annual Energy Outlook, presenting three scenarios — not forecasts — for how oil demand may evolve

The Net Zero path, broadly in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement, is difficult to reconcile with current trends.

In such a narrative, BP’s model shows global oil consumption collapsing to 21 million barrels a day by midcentury, down from about 98 million today.

Ignore 2050 and focus instead on the intervening milestones, starting with 2025. In just two years’ time, BP’s Net Zero scenario sees oil demand 4 million barrels a day lower than it is now. That would mean removing the equivalent of Germany’s entire consumption in 2024 and repeating that feat again the following year

Every oil forecast I’ve seen shows demand rising in 2023, and the few 2024 projections already published — including one from the US government — see growth continuing.

Looking further ahead, BP’s Net Zero readout suggests demand would need to plunge a further 9 million barrels a day from 2026 to 2030, falling to 85 million a day by the end of the decade. That equates to eliminating the consumption of France each year and, on the final year, striking out Italy as well.

Then the really difficult period starts. The scenario sees the world using just 70 million barrels a day in 2035, requiring the annual removal of 3 million a day. That equals the demand of Japan, currently the world’s fourth-largest consumer.

Net zero models look increasingly at odds with short-term trends. It’s possible oil demand can sink by 2050, but is it going to plummet in a matter of months and keep falling precipitously every year for the next decade? No.

--Javier Blas, Bloomberg Opinion

Deglobalization -- February 2, 2023

Themes: 2023. Link here.

Deglobalization: no stopping it now. Link here.

The globalized world has seemingly been great for everyone...security, access to foreign markets, the list goes on...so why would the US choose to continue down the path of deglobalization?

The US has been heading down this path for years, and they're well past the point of no return. There are a few reasons we ended up here: the US never benefitted from this arrangement like everyone else, American politics are all about casting a wide net and making the most people happy (so when the globalization topic is hurting your party, you give it the cold shoulder), and most importantly, demographics.

Perhaps the only thing that could flip the script and make the US rethink this would be a security threat that impacts Americans more than anyone else.

Globalization served three purposes for the EU, all to stymie the US economy:

  • to move to "green energy," to even the playing field by destroying the US energy advantage;
  • to ensure a huge US market for EU goods that were becoming less and less competitive; and,
  • to force the US to be the guarantor of safe trade routes.

Boomers To Inherit $70 Trillion -- If I'm Reading The Chart Correctly -- February 2, 2023

Re-posting: from December 3, 2022. See chart below.

Of course, not even close to being evenly divided among each member:

  • the silent generation: $20 trillion; silent generation = 23 million = almost $1 million each.
  • the boomer generation: $70 trillion; boomer generation = 78 million = almost $ 1 million each

Boomers:

  • born 1946 - 1964
    • current ages, 59 years old to 77 years old
    • if one assumes the $70 trillion is a snapshot in time, that number could certainly grow significantly over the next 10 years
    • ten years from now: 69 years old to 87 years old, by which time the bow wave has peaked, and the numbers start to decrease
  • it will not be until 2030 when all boomers will finally be over age 65 -- that's almost ten more years.

Baby boom age wave theory, link here:

  • most interesting in light of JPow's remarks yesterday:
    • in 2006, Dychtwald predicted a massive slowdown in workforce growth, arguing the generations that followed the baby boomers would fail to replicate the quantity of labor provided by the vast number of people born in the 19 years after World War II.
  • Covid-19 exacerbated that labor issue -- as mentioned by JPow yesterday

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Re-Posting

OPEC Cuts Production In January, 2023 -- February 2, 2023

Saudi: cuts production.

Active rigs: 47.

The Far Side: link here.

WTI:  $76.49.

Natural gas: $2.558.

Friday, February 3, 2023:
39073, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Samples 2-35-26-159N-100W-MBH,
38582, conf, Whiting, Connor TTT 11-26-1H,

Thursday, February 2, 2023:
39074, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Szarka 4-36-25-159N-100W-MBH,
39071, conf, Resonance Exploration, Resonance Fylling 3036H,
39034, conf, CLR, Rhonda 11-28H,
38409, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 11-5TFHU,
38164, conf, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0403H-11,

RBN Energy: portfolio players take on critical roles in rapidly commoditizing global LNG market

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last February upended long-standing expectations about natural gas supplies to Europe and resulted in elevated global gas prices as countries bid for LNG to fill the void.
But U.S. suppliers can only produce so much LNG, and how much of it ends up in Europe versus Asia or other gas-consuming regions in 2023 and beyond will depend largely on market forces — in other words, who needs the LNG more and is willing to pay up for it.
At the center of these market-based decisions about LNG cargo destinations are large portfolio players like Shell, BP, TotalEnergies and Naturgy and short-side portfolio players like Japan’s JERA. In today’s RBN blog we look at these two types of players, the roles they play, and their contributions to energy security.

Thursday Morning News, Part 3 — February 2, 2023

Auto sales: pending — https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/02/ford-january-2023-sales-f-series-bronco.html. Shares surging in early trading. Earnings after market close.

DETROIT – Ford Motor’s new U.S. vehicle sales started 2023 on stronger footing than a year earlier, but were down 18.4% from December. 

 January is historically one of the weakest months of the year, while December is one of the strongest. Still, the month-over-month decline is notable, as the worst for the automaker since a 28% drop between May and June of last year. Between December 2021 and January 2022, sales declined 17.4%.

EVs: expect more price cuts ahead -- Morgan Stanley.

Buybacks (shares/equity): huge this year. 

Subway: could go public; valued at $10 billion (?). Sales surged 9.2%. The struggling consumer. Say what?

EPD: predicts big year for the Permian. Link: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Pipeline-Operator-Predicts-A-Big-Year-For-The-Permian-Basin.html.

Wow: seriously? 

Link: https://twitter.com/PeterZeihan/status/1621155000520159233. RMB = Chinese yuan. New reserve currency? By the way, as a percentage y/y within the currency EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD, AUD, and HKD all dropped. On top of that, not only did US increase y/y, it did by a healthy margin. Up over 8%, y/y.

US Navy stands down: link here — https://twitter.com/PeterZeihan/status/1621153827801174019.

Twitter: much improved.

Thursday Morning News, Part 2 — February 2, 2023

‘Disinflation”; word of the day — CNBC. Their words, not mine.

Why the rally? Link here

Efficiency / productivity: second word of the day.

Soft landing: lots of talk. Their talk, not mine. JPow getting a lot of plaudits.

Deglobalization: no stopping it now. Link here.

The globalized world has seemingly been great for everyone...security, access to foreign markets, the list goes on...so why would the US choose to continue down the path of deglobalization?

The US has been heading down this path for years, and they're well past the point of no return. There are a few reasons we ended up here: the US never benefitted from this arrangement like everyone else, American politics are all about casting a wide net and making the most people happy (so when the globalization topic is hurting your party, you give it the cold shoulder), and most importantly, demographics.

Perhaps the only thing that could flip the script and make the US rethink this would be a security threat that impacts Americans more than anyone else.

21st century: belongs to America. Energy. Industrialization. EVs. 

Dow turns green: pre-market. AAPL surges; announces after market close. 

TTE, Iraq: TTE pulls staff from Iraq — https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/totalenergies-pulls-staff-iraq-wrangling-over-projects-sources-say-2023-02-02/.

Ferrari surgehttps://twitter.com/barronsonline/status/1621128570339745796. Profits surge 13%. The struggling consumer. Reminder: we’re in a recession.

Shell: profit doubles to $40 billion and announces $4 billion buyback.

AMDhttps://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/stock-market-hangs-on-the-feds-decision-chip-stock-jumps/.

Oil: pre-market, down a bit. 

SCCO: Doubles Its Dividend -- February 2, 2023

Link here.

I completely missed this; just happened to see it tonight -- pure serendipity.

After recently cutting its dividend, apparently SCCO has now announced a doubling of its quarterly dividend. Whoo-hoo!