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Tuesday, January 31, 2023

Projections: BP Or XOM -- January 31, 2023

Link here.


Later: see comments.

For the record, I'm 1000% in XOM's camp. 

From today to 2030, it's only seven years, and XOM has demand only going from 100 to 105; in the big scheme of things, practically flat. Meanwhile, even if BP is correct about demand being flat through 2030 (which is very, very unlikely) that descent is quite remarkable.

Four New Permits; Four Permits Renewed; Eight Permits Canceled -- January 31, 2023

VLO: rasies quarterly dividend from 98 cents to $1.02 / share. 

WMB: raises quarterly dividend to 44.75 cents/share.

************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 46.

WTI: $78.87.

Natural gas: $2.684.

Four new permits, #39616 - #39619, inclusive:

  • Operator: Whiting
  • Field: Sanish (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Whiting has permits for four De YK / De YK Federal permits, SWNW 33-154-92; 
      • to be sited 337 FWL and between 1552 FNL and 1642 FNL.

Four permits renewed:

  • Lime Rock Resources (3): an Emil Veverka, a Kary, and a Robert Sadoowsky permit, all in Dunn County;
  • Oasis: a Barron permit in Burke County;

Eight permits canceled:

  • Crescent Point Energy (7): six CPEUSC Holmes permits; and one CPEUSC Keith permit, all in Williams County;
  • Whiting: a Double Eagle SWD permit, Mountrail County;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 38626, 622, Whiting, Kannianen 11-3-2H, Sanish,
  • 36169, no ip reported, XTO, Lavern 42X-14EXF, Capa, minimal production posted;

38626:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20223110567103681382080587398660
BAKKEN11-20221142974512131653451337279
BAKKEN10-2022281256812187121968154808074
BAKKEN9-2022290010258000

If We're In A Recession, Give Me More -- January 31, 2023

From today's Wall Street Journal:

I'm being flip, I know --- "... if we're in a recession, give me more ...." I know I may be singing a different tune three months from now, but one starts to wonder. Are the folks who are worried about a recession underestimating what might happen after "coming out of Covid-induced coma" which might, in fact, be followed by the end of a war in Ukraine? I don't know but the energy story is incredibly fascinating.

Link here

Now, if we could just get the egg situation in hand.  

HP: link here.


Lotus: to go public


*******************************
After-Hours Earnings

AMD: beats, 69 cents vs 67 cents. Shares surge, up $6/share. Link here.

Link here.


EW
:

On average, analysts polled by FactSet expected the medical devices company to earn 61 cents per share on $1.33 billion in sales.

In the year-earlier period Edwards earnings were 51 cents per share and the company reported $1.33 billion in sales.

For the year, Edwards Lifesciences predicted to 9%-12% sales growth, excluding the impact of exchange rates. EW stock analysts forecasted earnings of $2.49 a share and $5.79 billion in sales.

Reported earlier today:

Tuesday, January 31, 2023, dividend calendar (to include time of release), whisper number vs consensus:

  • XOM: before market open; $3.41 vs $3.32;  beats, record profit. Link here. IBD.Bloomberg. And here. And here — huge story. Here also.
  • UPS: before market open; $3.66 vs $3.58; mixed, shares up. CNBC.
  • PFE: before market open; $1.05 vs $1.03; how do you spell relief? Huge beat.
  • CAT: before market open; $4.11 vs $3.95; mixed, shares off $8, but huge run since October.
  • MCD: before market open; $2.51 vs $2.46; beats, huge. $2.59.
  • MPC: before market open; $5.98 vs. $5.54; huge beat, $6.65. Link here.
  • PSX: before market open; $4.76 vs $4.34; sky-high profit. Link here. $3.97 compared to $2.88 last year.
  • GM: before market open; $1.74 vs $1.68; beats, shares up. $1.39. Shares surge on news. Link here.
  • HP (Helmerich and Payne): after market close; n/a vs $1.01;
  • EW (Edwards Lifesciences): after market close; 64 cents vs 61 cents; beats; 64 cents; shares surge.
  • AMD: after market close; 66 cents vs 67 cents; 69 cents and beats on top line, $5.6 billion vs $5.5 billion.
  • AMGN: after market close; $4.08 vs $4.04; just misses, $4.09 vs $4.10.

Anticipation -- Pooling By Another Name? CCS -- NDIC Hearing Dockets -- March 21, 2023

Link here

The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.  

The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

Link here.

These are cases, not permits.



Washington's Long Term Strategy In The Middle East Under Biden -- January 31, 2023

It's all about choosing the right horse, and again, the US is about to choose the right horse. Link here.  

A must-read article from Simon Watkins: here's why Qatar is about to make a big move on Iraqi oil and gas. 

Qatar’s move to buy a 30 percent stake in four US$27 billion projects in Iraq that were set to be managed entirely by France’s TotalEnergies are in line with the U.S.’s new strategy for Baghdad.

The four projects are essential to Iraq’s future as a truly independent country.

  • the first project, the completion of the Common Seawater Supply Project (CSSP), which remains crucial in enabling Iraq to reach crude oil production targets of 7 million barrels per day (bpd), then 9 million bpd and perhaps even 12 million bpd, 
  • the second of the projects is to collect and refine at a major processing plant the associated (with oil drilling) gas that is currently burned off at the five southern Iraq oilfields of West Qurna 2, Majnoon, Tuba, Luhais, and Artawi. Initial comments from Iraq’s Ministry of Oil highlighted that the plant is expected to produce 300 million cubic feet of gas per day (mcf/d) and double that after a second phase of development.   
  • the third part of TotalEnergies’ four-pronged US$27 billion deal is aimed at boosting crude oil output from Iraq’s Artawi oil field to 210,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil, up from the current circa-85,000 bpd. This project could lead TotalEnergies (and eventually) others to engage in similar crude oil production boosting projects across the country.  
  •  the last of the four projects to be undertaken by the French company will be the construction and operation of a 1,000-megawatt solar energy plant. 

Link here.

In The Middle Of The Night -- We're Still Talking About The Recession -- January 31, 2023

In the middle of the night. Maybe we'll finally find what we're looking for ... in the middle of the night. Wow, it never quits. "The Expectations Index is below 80 which often signals a recession within the next year."

"Within the next year." Say what. They started talking about the coming recession back in early 2022.

And, maybe even before that

Link here


Link here
.

For All Those Folks Complaining About CVX's New Dividend -- Oh, Give Me A Break. CVX Threaded The Needle About As Well As They Could -- January 31, 2023

From today's social media:

This is really, really cool. 

From January 30, 2023, Michael Fitzsimmons. He inadvertently waded into the decades-old argument -- dividends vs buybacks vs capital gains ... Warren Buffett vs the "typical" mom-and-pop retail investor:

Link here.


So, for all those folks complaining about CVX's new dividend -- oh, give me a break. CVX threaded the needle about as well as they could:

  • a healthy dividend;
  • held back cash for expanding their own company;
  • a record buyback authorized but the key word: authorized.

Nothing required CVX to actually buyback anything.... $75 billion to be used at their discretion.

It really gets back to a short-term horizon vs a long-term horizon.

I'm lovin' it.

Saudi Is Back -- And So Is The US Economy -- January 31, 2023

Link here.

*******************
And So Is The US Market

*********************
Area Under The Curve

Update

January 31, 2023: one "word" -- AMEX. 

Original Post

Re-posting from November 20, 2022:

By the way, this is where folks are really hurt by having a poor general education, particularly in math. Folks will look (briefly) at the graph below and note only the "curve" or the solid dark line. Much more important is the "calculus" -- it's the "area under the curve" that should catch your attention.

The "area under the curve." Calculus. Start here.

Link here.

My reply: 

Get a grip. For an investor, it's an open-book test: Mastercard, Visa, Discover, and AMEX. Not only lots of credit card activity but lots of late payments and interest rates rising. They're gonna make out like bandits.

And, oh, by the way, savings rates are at 10-year lows, not all time lows. Went much lower in the mid 2000s.

The area under the curve:


This, without a doubt, the largest ever in the history of mankind.

My favorite chart which correlates exactly with the chart above.

Link here:

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

The Struggling US Consumer -- If Only -- January 31, 2023

SNAP beats estimates Fourteen cents vs eleven cents estimate.

Starbucks: reports later this week.  Least expensive coffee at Starbucks? $2.85 (or thereabouts -- I was just there two days ago). At home, K-Cup, at Amazon, as low as 27 cents. Starbucks -- 10x K-Cup.

McDonald's: link here. Reminder: a $10 McDonald's meal costs about $2.50 when homemade. A pancake breakfast at home has even bigger savings.

Link here.

GM: before market open; $1.74 vs $1.68; beats, shares up. $1.39. Shares surge on news. Link here. Link here.



PEMEX Still Looks Bankrupt To Me -- January 13, 2023

Earlier this morning:

12:14 p.m. CST: Pemex issues bond (singular) worth at least $1.5 billion to refinance debt -- sources.
a ten-year bond

  • Pemex's debt payments due for the first quarter of 2023 stand between $5.5 billion and $6 billion
  • The debt payments the company was due to make in January were being met with its own funds 
  • Pemex had financial debts of some $105 billion at the end of the third quarter, when it posted losses of nearly $2.6 billion.
  • yield not reported; 6%?

Still looks technically bankrupt to me. 

CoalFreeDave: What A Doofus; How Do You Spell "Deindustrialization"? -- January 31, 2023

Earlier today:

Coal: Europe. He is not telling the whole story. Conveniently avoids the issue of deindustrialization and complete disruption of energy flow this past year. Another solar nut.

Now, this, from Tyler Durden:


By the way, the Biden administration killed "globalization" when the president signed the MAGA bill, the "inflation reduction act."
From the link: As proof look no further than a study published Monday by Allianz Trade which cited contract expiries and delayed wholesale pricing effects, and which according to Reuters found that German industry is set to pay about 40% more for energy in 2023 than in 2021, before the energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

"The large energy-price shock still lies ahead for European corporates," said Allianz Trade.

As a reminder, in 2022, higher corporate utility bills were contained as long pass-through times from wholesale markets and government interventions mitigated the immediate hit from surging prices as Russia curbed fuel exports to the West. The resulting budget deficits were promptly funded by the ECB, which meant that for all the posturing, Christine Lagarde was directly funding Putin's cash build up.

But the pass-throughs are ending, which means that price increases will soon hit corporate profits across Europe by 1-1.5% and lead to lower investment, which in Germany's case would amount to 25 billion euros ($27 billion).

The silver lining is that German companies' finances are robust, while a state-imposed gas price cap would help (unless it makes things much worse).

At the same time, fears the crisis could lead to de-industrialisation and a loss of competitiveness against the United States were overdone, because labor costs and exchange rates have a bigger impact on manufacturing than energy prices.
Also, while exporters were losing market shares in areas such as agrifood, machinery, electrical equipment, metals and transport, the relative beneficiaries tended to be Asian, Middle Eastern and African, not American.
Much more at the link.

Most Important Post Investors Can Read Today -- January 31, 2023

The RBN Energy article is "available" for the next few days at the link below.

RBN Energy: bearish 2023 gas market punctuates last throes of shale era abundance. Archived.

The Lower 48 natural gas market has had the most bearish start to a new year in a long time. Production has been at record highs, an exceptionally warm start to January suppressed demand, and LNG exports have been hobbled since last June when Freeport LNG went offline.
The CME/NYMEX Henry Hub February gas futures contract slid to an 18-month low of $2.94/MMBtu last Thursday and expired Friday at $3.109/MMBtu, down 54% from where the prompt contract closed just two months earlier. The March contract extended the slide Monday to a 20-month low of $2.677/MMBtu. Freeport’s eventual return will restore existing export capacity, but there’s no new LNG export capacity due online this year — for the first time since 2016. After one of the tightest gas markets of the last decade in 2022, the stage is set for one of the most oversupplied markets we’ve seen in years.
But the bulls out there can take solace: 2023 will also mark the final throes of the kind of oversupply conditions that defined the Shale Era as we know it. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss how we got here and RBN’s outlook for natural gas supply and demand.

After a great re-cap of 2022 - 2023 -- and it's only January, 2023 -- RBN Energy concludes with this:

That’s 2023. Earlier we promised the bulls among you some good news, however, and here it is:
While 2023 is set up to be overwhelmingly bearish, it’s likely to be the last of its kind for some time to come.
After a slowdown in 2022-23, LNG export capacity additions will come fast and furious over the next several years.
As they do, they will outpace production growth, which will increasingly depend on pipeline expansions.
In other words, 2023 will be the last aftershock of Shale Era surpluses, as the Lower 48 gas market counts down to the next phase: a period of gas shortage and increased volatility, driven by export growth and piecemeal production growth that will be paced by the timing of midstream development.
We got a taste of what that will look like in 2022, but how out-of-whack could the market get? We’ll be back with a more detailed look at our five-year outlook in the next episode of this series.

WTI Recovers A Bit — January 31, 2023

The Far Side: link here.

Active rig: 46.

WTI: $78.60.

Natural gas: $2.676.

Wednesday, February 1, 2023: 1 for the month; 71 for the quarter, 71 for the year
39075, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Szarka 3-36-25-159N-100W-MBH,

Tuesday, January 31, 2023: 70 for the month; 70 for the quarter, 70 for the year
39043, conf, CLR, Kelling 3-4H, 

RBN Energy: bearish 2023 gas market punctuates last throes of shale era abundance. Archived.

The Lower 48 natural gas market has had the most bearish start to a new year in a long time. Production has been at record highs, an exceptionally warm start to January suppressed demand, and LNG exports have been hobbled since last June when Freeport LNG went offline.
The CME/NYMEX Henry Hub February gas futures contract slid to an 18-month low of $2.94/MMBtu last Thursday and expired Friday at $3.109/MMBtu, down 54% from where the prompt contract closed just two months earlier. The March contract extended the slide Monday to a 20-month low of $2.677/MMBtu. Freeport’s eventual return will restore existing export capacity, but there’s no new LNG export capacity due online this year — for the first time since 2016. After one of the tightest gas markets of the last decade in 2022, the stage is set for one of the most oversupplied markets we’ve seen in years.
But the bulls out there can take solace: 2023 will also mark the final throes of the kind of oversupply conditions that defined the Shale Era as we know it. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss how we got here and RBN’s outlook for natural gas supply and demand.

After a great re-cap of 2022 - 2023 -- and it's only January, 2023 -- RBN Energy concludes with this:

That’s 2023. Earlier we promised the bulls among you some good news, however, and here it is:
While 2023 is set up to be overwhelmingly bearish, it’s likely to be the last of its kind for some time to come.
After a slowdown in 2022-23, LNG export capacity additions will come fast and furious over the next several years.
As they do, they will outpace production growth, which will increasingly depend on pipeline expansions.
In other words, 2023 will be the last aftershock of Shale Era surpluses, as the Lower 48 gas market counts down to the next phase: a period of gas shortage and increased volatility, driven by export growth and piecemeal production growth that will be paced by the timing of midstream development.
We got a taste of what that will look like in 2022, but how out-of-whack could the market get? We’ll be back with a more detailed look at our five-year outlook in the next episode of this series.

Tuesday Morning — January 31, 2023

This is accurate: I’m still in bed. No school today. Link here.

Again, the Dakotas. Link here.

New Mexico: out-producing Mexico. PEMEX to refinance debt; technically insolvent. Owes $105 billion; $10 billion due now. The check is in the mail.

Presidential Hummer: hypocrisy. Doesn’t bother me. Bad optics for the “struggling consumer.” What a doofus.

Coal: Europe. He is not telling the whole story. Conveniently avoids the issue of deindustrialization and complete disruption of energy flow this past year. Another solar nut. And, more here.

EU: outpaced US, China in 2022. Say what?

US natural gas consumption hits all-time record: link here.

Belgium: link here.

Yup. MAGA. Link here.

Norway: go woke, go broke.

Fun fact: link here.