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Monday, January 30, 2023

Texas Breaks Natural Gas Production Record -- January 30, 2023

Earlier this note.

Now, this. And, of all things, by Charles Kennedy. Whoo-hoo!

In a new record for the Lone Star State, Texas produced 11.2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in 2022, with growth expected to trend even higher going forward, according to the latest report from the Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association.

TIPRO also noted that Texas supplied the country with 1.83 billion barrels of oil last year.

Texas’ direct oil and gas payroll hit $48 billion in 2022, compared to $11 billion for California and $7.6 billion for Louisiana, the second and third biggest payroll contributors.

In terms of oil production, Texas’ 1.83 billion barrels in 2022 compared to New Mexico, with the second highest at 534 million barrels, and North Dakota, with 393 million barrels.

In the field of natural gas, where Texas broke a new record, the second biggest producer for 2022 was Pennsylvania, which produced 7.6 Tcf.

Gross Regional Product for the Texas oil and gas industry came in at $322 billion for 2022, a figure that represents 16% of the state’s economy. TIPRO, however, notes that the actual contribution to the state's economy is much higher, stating, “Once the typical multiplier for Gross Regional Product is incorporated, the Texas oil and natural gas industry supported 40% of the Texas economy.”

That all earned the state of Texas $24.7 billion in taxes and royalty payments from the oil and gas industry last year.

Elsewhere, from various sources:


Big Day Tomorrow -- January 30, 2023

Tuesday, pre-market: across the board, great earnings. Shares initially up on news but then profit-taking, last day of the month.

Struggling consumerlink here.

Struggling consumer: link here.

********

Tuesday, January 31, 2023, dividend calendar (to include time of release), whisper numbeer vs consensus:

  • XOM: before market open; $3.41 vs $3.32;  beats, record profit. Link here. IBD.Bloomberg. And here. And here — huge story. Here also.
  • UPS: before market open; $3.66 vs $3.58; mixed, shares up. CNBC.
  • PFE: before market open; $1.05 vs $1.03; how do you spell relief? Huge beat.
  • CAT: before market open; $4.11 vs $3.95; mixed, shares off $8, but huge run since October.
  • MCD: before market open; $2.51 vs $2.46; beats, huge. $2.59.
  • MPC: before market open; $5.98 vs. $5.54; huge beat, $6.65. Link here.
  • PSX: before market open; $4.76 vs $4.34; sky-high profit. Link here. $3.97 compared to $2.88 last year.
  • GM: before market open; $1.74 vs $1.68; beats, shares up. $1.39. Shares surge on news. Link here.
  • HP (Helmerich and Payne): after market close; n/a vs $1.01;
  • EW (Edwards Lifesciences): after market close; 64 cents vs 61 cents;
  • AMD: after market close; 66 cents vs 67 cents;
  • AMGN: after market close; $4.08 vs $4.04;

Apple Will Report Earnings Later This Week -- January 30, 2023


Link here
.

Link here.

************************
Remodeling

This is really quite bittersweet for me.

I grew up with Apple.

If there's been one constant in my life, it's been Apple.

I'm actually a bit sad -- I wear nostalgia on my sleeve, as they say -- to see this.

This is probably right up there with the original White Castle.


*********************
A Musical Interlude


Link here.

The Law Of Unintended Consequences -- January 30, 2023

I occasionally follow the Wuhan flu -- Covid-19 -- at this post.  

Isn't this interesting? Who would ever have thought that the "emergency declaration" some years ago would cross paths / intersect with the "southern surge"?

The Biden administration has a real mess on their hands. 

"Everyone" knows that it's time to lift the "emergency declaration" but with the "southern surge" still in play -- lifting of Title 42 -- 

"Letting the emergencies expire would also lift Title 42 immediately, which the OMB said Monday would "result in a substantial additional inflow of migrants at the Southwest border." 

So, what's the administration to do?

This is where the GOP is not being helpful. Again.

Biden has apparently made this decision: 

President Biden told Congress on Monday that his administration will end twin emergencies related to the COVID-19 pandemic on May 11, 2023, more than three years after they were enacted. 

The COVID-19 national emergency is set to expire on March 1, while the public health emergency (PHE) will expire on April 11. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) wrote in a Statement of Administration Policy that Biden will extend both emergencies to May 11, at which point they will expire. 

Some members of the GOP want an "immediate end" to the emergencies.

I have no comment. This is simply for the archives.

Kraken: Three New Permits In The Rainbow Oil Field, Williams County -- January 30, 2023

I've long forgotten the particulars, but a reader "recently" asked about the Rainbow Oil Field in Williams County. See map here.

In today's Daily Activity Report:

The "Struggling" American Consumer -- January 30, 2023

Link here. Yes, I have this one. Well, I used to have it. I gave it to my son-in-law. I've long forgotten how much I paid, but it must have been less than $300 because that's pretty much my limit when it comes to Lego, and that's very rare for me to buy sets that expensive. 

From Amazon:

Now, from The Wall Street Journal today:

"The Natural Gas King" Grew Natural Gas Proved Reserves To A New Record -- 600+ Trillion Cubic Feet -- No Wonder The Elitists Want To Ban Natural Gas Ovens / Stoves -- January 30, 202

See this post: the US remains "the natural gas king."

Now, this today, from the EIA:

********************************
Archived

I wouldn't pay to much attention to any of the numbers below but it helps put things in perspective. The numbers below simply tell me how fast natural gas reserves grew with the "Bakken revolution."

How does this compare to the earlier note, from 2018?

From oilprice, the data comes from BP's annual review, 2017 data.

  • US natural gas production (flat over the past three years):
    • 2017: 71.1 billion cubic feet per day
    • 2016: 71.1 billion cubic feet per day
    • 2015: 71.6 billion cubic feet per day

US natural gas reserves, February 13, 2018, EIA:

  • 341.1 trillion cubic feet; increased by 5% over 2016
  • Pennsylvania: added 6.1 tcf natural gas reserves, the largest net increase of all states in 2016 as a result of the Marcellus)
  • next largest net gains, after Pennsylvania: Oklahoma (3.7 tcf); Ohio (3.1 tcf); SCOOP, STACK, Utica
  • natural gas from shale as a percentage of total production: increased from 54% in 2015 to 62% in 2016
  • additions exceeded consumption by 30%

What about the rest of the world back in 2013?

Three New Permits; Twelve Permits Renewed; Six Permits Canceled; And Three DUCs Repoorted As Completed -- January 30, 2023

Active wells: 46.

WTI: $77.93.

Natural gas: $2.691.

Three new permits, #39613 - #39615, inclusive:

  • Operator: Kraken
  • Field: Rainbow (Williams)
  • Comments: Kraken has permits for three Gladys wells, NENE 32-158-98, to be sited 437 FNL and between 1003 FEL and 1069 FEL;

Twelve permits renewed:

  • Petro Harvester (6): FLM1 and LFM2; Leaf Mountain; Burke County
  • EOG (3): three Liberty LR permits, Parshall oil field, Mountrail
  • Lime Rock Resources (2): two State permits, Cabernet oil field, Dunn County
  • Enerplus: a Wm Ann Thome permit, Strandahl oil field, Williams County;

Six permits canceled:

  • Crescent Point Energy: six Ruby permits, Winner oil field; Williams.

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 38590, 3,854, MRO, Cheryl 41-18H,
  • 38621, 3,417, MRO, Fallstrom 14-20TFH,
  • 38720, 3,857, MRO, Claude 14-20H,

Why Middle East Producers Cut Prices In The Face Of Soaring Chinese Demand -- Gerald Jansen -- January 30, 2023

Link here.

Lots of interesting background information.

This particular paragraph (which I broke up into smaller bites) caught my eye and why I'm linking/posting the story:

When pricing its grades into Asia, Aramco cut the lighter ones much more than the heavies, a trend that it also followed with its European prices where Arab Light was lowered by $1.40 per barrel, coming in at a -$1.50 per barrel discount to ICE Brent.
In just six months since September 2022, the average formula price in Asia plummeted by $8 per barrel, whilst in Europe the decline was milder, only $5-6 per barrel.
Just as Saudi Aramco finalized the merger of Aramco Trading and Motiva Trading, moving all of its trading activity under one umbrella, prices of US-bound cargoes continue to boggle the mind as the Saudi NOC rolled over the same prices for the fourth straight month.
Hardly a surprise than exports to the United States are a mere quarter of what they were in early autumn, competing with late 2020 readings for the title of weakest flows on record with only three tankers departing towards the US this month.

See US-Saudi imports, this link


Some Recession -- January 30, 2023

JetBlue pilots: approve contract extension that comes with 21% in raises.

Boeing: will add a new 737 Max production line to meet strong demand.

Costco: preparing to raise its membership prices.

Ports: a lagging indicator. 

Hurricanes "Unprecedentedly Weak" In 2022 -- Bjorn Lomborg

For the archives, but even more so, for investors. This is great news for investors. Think Warren Buffett and all those Geico-insured cars that weren't "totaled" by hurricane flooding. 

And, oh by the way, insurers raised their rates after the hurricanes the previous season.

It's All About Margins -- Re-Posting -- January 30, 2023

Locator: 33021.

Updates

Later, 1:25 p.m. CT: It's all about margins


Original Post

Price wars begin (wow, that was fast): https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1620057370603945986.

This speaks volumes about the future of EVs:

From The WSJ today:

Updating This Well -- 50x Jump In Production -- Bakken 101 -- Bakken 5.0 -- December 23, 2022

This regards this well:

  • 18732, 558, CLR, Stortroen 1-13T, Dimmick Lake, t7/10; cum 231K 10/ 22, full production profile; 27834 / 581 = 50x; cum 256K 11/22;

A reader wrote

I saw your post from yesterday on the halo effect of the Hess BB-Budahn wells.  I know you have posted this phenomenon a lot on your blog site, but you have to check out the Stortroen 1-13T (#18732), located in 151-97-13.  They recently drilled additional wells in that area, and this particular well was not the best through its life.  It has been producing since June of 2010, and the highest production ever was around 10,000 a month with most production being around 800 a month.  After the other wells were drilled, this well went to 21k in September, 27k in October, and 24k in November 2022.

Not sure if this was a refrac or not, but pretty impressive regardless.

My reply
Yes, it was a re-frac, 5/17/22.

I consider “re-francs” in the broad category of halo effect for tagging but technically not what I originally intended. But it does not matter. The mineral owner is simply happy with a bigger check … regardless of reason.

The re-frac was a moderate re-frac, around 9 million gallons of water with water being 88% of total mass of the frac.

Updated production

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20223024901248772989153174527799
BAKKEN10-2022312783427992397605484654035409
BAKKEN9-20223021389210664740240334386361309
BAKKEN8-20221151394737186701203079573944
BAKKEN7-2022522321742344520404
BAKKEN6-20220000000
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-202233134147460
BAKKEN3-202231581708356165112500
BAKKEN2-202228485471275145210880
BAKKEN1-202231537486366173613330
BAKKEN12-202131562723337176813650
BAKKEN11-202130558482337160712170
BAKKEN10-20213159046838711867830
BAKKEN9-2021305294673101272685210
BAKKEN8-2021315756973571270597270
BAKKEN7-2021315804534281255606259
BAKKEN6-2021305746913621087360342
BAKKEN5-2021315274783771416921105
BAKKEN4-2021306428544322009159821
BAKKEN3-20213157453056216381163112
BAKKEN2-2021255934913301628128256
BAKKEN1-20213155712072721606122136
BAKKEN12-2020316190313176913780
BAKKEN11-202030619468298175913690
BAKKEN10-202031621714368178113840
BAKKEN9-202030672713385185114650
BAKKEN8-2020317326684201840144810
BAKKEN7-2020318921410302184914550
BAKKEN6-20201470101300
BAKKEN5-202016351018247428238
BAKKEN4-202029609490338174313850
BAKKEN3-202031632700288177113680
BAKKEN2-202029584490303169513126
BAKKEN1-2020316737463661830139136
BAKKEN12-201931701695407185114490
BAKKEN11-20193052048355715521038130
BAKKEN10-201931635694324180514020
BAKKEN9-201930631458360183614460
BAKKEN8-2019316397023331923148733
BAKKEN7-2019316507043681907148123
BAKKEN6-2019306446893951695130114
BAKKEN5-2019305346813271393609433
BAKKEN4-2019306264733151418353675
BAKKEN3-2019316187133301504825276
BAKKEN2-201928651711352170313327
BAKKEN1-2019316226993081751130741
BAKKEN12-201831669709358167312980
BAKKEN11-20183064847835017131081242
BAKKEN10-2018317336964381494648443
BAKKEN9-2018256146976681401354730
BAKKEN8-20183169769640726181315900
BAKKEN7-201819562466377157813580
BAKKEN6-201830707690447222518350
BAKKEN5-201831841694435185818580
BAKKEN4-2018286046983279969960
BAKKEN3-201831392468878688680
BAKKEN2-201825582486355143614360
BAKKEN1-201831694700378154615460
BAKKEN12-201731722710362160016000
BAKKEN11-201730710715364148514850
BAKKEN10-201731689727505172217220
BAKKEN9-201730663469329142214220
BAKKEN8-201731697923408180118010
BAKKEN7-201731721680451196519650
BAKKEN6-20172977367758418611731130
BAKKEN5-2017316719203101766173630
BAKKEN4-2017307186844631901187526
BAKKEN3-201731781961380176517650
BAKKEN2-201728677462375169316930
BAKKEN1-201731788711418203020300
BAKKEN12-201631844934528200420040
BAKKEN11-201630998891513231323130
BAKKEN10-201617440945217106299270
BAKKEN9-201629704462472185818580
BAKKEN8-201631820697450179117910
BAKKEN7-201631856913498212521250
BAKKEN6-201630872683595208620860
BAKKEN5-201631663923310169516950
BAKKEN4-201628806456465191719170
BAKKEN3-201631875905475194519450
BAKKEN2-201629833928425184118410
BAKKEN1-201631895903453192019200
BAKKEN12-201531891925466197819780
BAKKEN11-201530866914440195119510
BAKKEN10-201531867902457202920290
BAKKEN9-201530865895468205920590
BAKKEN8-201531903882503214821480
BAKKEN7-201531881918495209720970
BAKKEN6-201528897684507216921690
BAKKEN5-2015319379145232258223424
BAKKEN4-20153086690951721131969144
BAKKEN3-20153110331170540206320630
BAKKEN2-2015288761014467184018400
BAKKEN1-2015311057926615236023600
BAKKEN12-2014319601068500201320130
BAKKEN11-20143098290956223132193120
BAKKEN10-20143111321261685260526050
BAKKEN9-2014301243868655237223720
BAKKEN8-201411438610137104110410
BAKKEN7-20143110241118580252025200
BAKKEN6-201430101289656724852085400
BAKKEN5-20143110711337570243124310
BAKKEN4-201430104871857722751985290
BAKKEN3-20143110991133602224822480
BAKKEN2-2014281069936578231223120
BAKKEN1-20143010951202613222922290
BAKKEN12-20133111191234617244924490
BAKKEN11-20133011129316502754271440
BAKKEN10-201331116911866482953294310
BAKKEN9-20133011361191648291729170
BAKKEN8-20133112091116685275427540
BAKKEN7-20133011281228690274327430
BAKKEN6-20133012071098690302130210
BAKKEN5-2013311268137071232143104110
BAKKEN4-20133012401155713306530650
BAKKEN3-20133113471432818340334030
BAKKEN2-20132812491234750335433540
BAKKEN1-20133114361450764322532250
BAKKEN12-201231143213837593265324520
BAKKEN11-20123013731354729325332530
BAKKEN10-20123114301398795362336230
BAKKEN9-20123014341451851386138610
BAKKEN8-20123115221584892408740870
BAKKEN7-2012311574158497343723692680
BAKKEN6-2012301595166998245884458130
BAKKEN5-201231196321881259571357130
BAKKEN4-20123019871854109541583613545
BAKKEN3-2012211463109158517261401325
BAKKEN2-2012208571286481244124410
BAKKEN1-201231180718691126486648660
BAKKEN12-20113119781941118957825492290
BAKKEN11-201130220623111239553955390
BAKKEN10-201131221321381197486248620
BAKKEN9-201130208719691102000
BAKKEN8-20113120952060106542663886380
BAKKEN7-2011312253225712535493540885
BAKKEN6-201130243322701310505650560
BAKKEN5-20113122622271116752375082155
BAKKEN4-2011292514257615477289723950
BAKKEN3-2011312861301318408898887820
BAKKEN2-2011282793256319069676965620
BAKKEN1-20113136244138211789178562355
BAKKEN12-2010284093359127071025610106150
BAKKEN11-20102638373731219710704107040
BAKKEN10-201031431543471923682868280
BAKKEN9-201030492653032302832783270
BAKKEN8-2010316339623130261148983893100
BAKKEN7-2010311071810955546521146168164330
BAKKEN6-2010137563685784191177312691050