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Wednesday, January 25, 2023

Gasoline Demand -- January 25, 2023

Link here.

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Natural Gas Drops Below $3; Six New Permits; Four DUCs Reported As Completed -- January 25, 2023

New Mexico: oil and natural gas production sets new revenue record in 2022. Link here. Fiscal year 2022, for New Mexico:

  • revenue nearly $9.7 billion
  • an increase of twenty percent over fiscal year 2021;
  • the state also recorded more than $3.6 billion in surplus "new money" that is largely attributable to New Mexico's energy industry.

************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 45.

WTI: $80.54.

Natural gas: $2.929.

Six new permits, #39591 - #39596, inclusive:

  • Operators: Lime Rock Resources (4); Neptune Operating (2)
  • Field: Stanley (Mountrail); Squires (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Lime Rock has permits for four wells: Moe, Curly, Larry, and Chico, NENE 29-155-91, 
      • to be sited 290 FNL and between 655 FEL and 775 FEL
    • Neptune Operating has permits for two Sigma Lee wells, SWSE 11-155-103, 
      • to be sited 510 FSL with one well 2103 FEL and the other well 2136 FEL.

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 35411, 150, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Narcisse 2-8-5-158N-99W-MBH,
  • 38741, 827, Whiting, Joanna TTT 11-6H,
  • 38689, 986, Whiting, Rohde Federal 14-6-2XH,
  • 38623, 2,705, MRO, Rossol 24-31H,

Change of operator, from Sinclair Oil l& Gas to SOGC: approximately 140 older wells.

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Chevron Rewards Shareholders -- Huge -- January 25, 2023

Up $4.70 / share after hours. Up almost 3% after hours. 

Fast Money panel: jaws dropped -- $75-billion buyback! On top of the recent $25-billion buyback. 

[Reminder: I don't watch CNBC except when there is news like today. LOL.] 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.     

Investors need to ask: what would you think of an investment opportunity if an outside investor swooped in and bought 20% of the entire Chevron company? The company has a P/E of 10, and pays over 3%. Yeah, that's what I thought.



Link here:

Energy giant Chevron announced a $75 billion stock buyback program and a dividend hike on Wednesday evening.

Shares of Chevron were up 3% in extended trading.

The buyback program will become effective on April 1, 2023, with no set expiration date, the company said in a press release. The dividend hike increases Chevron’s per share payout to $1.51 per share from $1.42, and will be payable on March 10, 2023.

Chevron’s market cap was roughly $350 billion as on Wednesday’s market close, meaning that the buyback would represent more than 20% of the company’s stock at current prices.

This buyback plan follows a $25 billion plan enacted in 2019. The old plan will be terminated at the end of March. For the third quarter of 2022 — the most recent quarter that Chevron has reported — the company repurchased $3.75 billion of shares.

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The Amazing Bakken -- It's All About TOC -- January 25, 2023

This is not a one-off. One can find them everywhere.

This well was first drilled in 2008. 

Total production for this well:

  • 302,036 bbls crude oil;
  • it was first drilled back in 2008, fifteen years ago;
  • and, in five months in the past year or so, this well has produced: 130,675 bbls
  • 130,675 / 302,036 = 43%
30788
34679
1722
51
0
0
0
3907
5069
6372
11550
16004
20533

Well of interest:

  • 16797, 108, CLR, Bang 1-33H, Cedar Coulee, t4/08; cum 302K 11/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2022303078830897293544304741894945
BAKKEN10-2022313467934024472584307542642214
BAKKEN9-20225172216755530218321792
BAKKEN8-2022151790000
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-20220000000
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-202217390742251511482446670
BAKKEN3-202217506948182902519149790
BAKKEN2-202224637266542750824479460
BAKKEN1-2022311155011608583514730143110
BAKKEN12-2021311600416229896919237188180
BAKKEN11-20213020533203411956322195217900
BAKKEN10-20216331930195476328832070
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-2021110001000
BAKKEN6-2021304575861178884960
BAKKEN5-202131500524829595400
BAKKEN4-202130477576788975050
BAKKEN3-202131515312939255060
BAKKEN2-2021284665582137543790
BAKKEN1-202131533936778794600
BAKKEN12-2020315140788834640
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CLR Bang Wells Starting To Report; Parent Well With Huge Jump In Production -- From 500 Bbls/Month To 35,000 Bbls/Month -- January 25, 2023

The CLR Bang wells are tracked here.

The well:

  • 38608, drl/A, CLR, Bang 11-4H1, Cedar Coulee, t--; cum 116K 11/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2022303550635528221643893637906802
BAKKEN10-2022314889149115332875892758000711
BAKKEN9-20222531210308522209031909301111798
BAKKEN8-2022224724711032970297

 Well of interest:

  • 16797, 108, CLR, Bang 1-33H, Cedar Coulee, t4/08; cum 302K 11/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2022303078830897293544304741894945
BAKKEN10-2022313467934024472584307542642214
BAKKEN9-20225172216755530218321792
BAKKEN8-2022151790000
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-20220000000
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-202217390742251511482446670
BAKKEN3-202217506948182902519149790
BAKKEN2-202224637266542750824479460
BAKKEN1-2022311155011608583514730143110
BAKKEN12-2021311600416229896919237188180
BAKKEN11-20213020533203411956322195217900
BAKKEN10-20216331930195476328832070
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-2021110001000
BAKKEN6-2021304575861178884960
BAKKEN5-202131500524829595400
BAKKEN4-202130477576788975050
BAKKEN3-202131515312939255060
BAKKEN2-2021284665582137543790
BAKKEN1-202131533936778794600
BAKKEN12-2020315140788834640

 

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New WPX McGregory Buttes Wells Starting To Report -- January 25, 2023

The wells:

Well of interest:

  • 18129, 359, WPX, Ethan Hall 14HC, McGregory Buttes, t11/11; cum 264K 11/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202230161915481654187517739
BAKKEN10-2022317001431000
BAKKEN9-20220000000
BAKKEN8-20220000000
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-20223026301000
BAKKEN5-202231000000
BAKKEN4-20223020223415321915551
BAKKEN3-202231566541639611422106
BAKKEN2-2022284174561504503601
BAKKEN1-20223186889030793772343
BAKKEN12-20213189585832810368650

The new wells:

  • 38480, drl/A,  WPX, Hall 14-15HY, McGregory Buttes, t--; cum 115K 11/22;
  • 38479, drl/A,  WPX, Hall 14-15HD, McGregory Buttes, t--; cum 109K 11/22;
  • 38478, drl/A,  WPX, Hall 14-15HZ, McGregory Buttes, t--; cum 119K 11/22;
  • 38477, drl/A,  WPX, Hall 14-15HIL, McGregory Buttes, t--; cum 82K 11/22;

Production profile:

  • 38478:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202230190181894720122239602394317
BAKKEN10-20223125297252942773622190221900
BAKKEN9-20223029812298233616221925219250
BAKKEN8-2022313077430994363464000396832
BAKKEN7-2022311445114090192464860483822
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Slawson Starting To Report The Sauger Federal Wells -- January 25, 2023

These wells are tracked here. This page will not be updated.

 

Updates

January 25, 2023:

Two wells of interest:

  • 18368, 323, Slawson, Payara 2-21H, Van Hook, t1/11; cum 332K 11/22; recent production, small jump in production;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20223026162607150522468461250
BAKKEN10-202231307329482598270312871261
BAKKEN9-202293253471118300143112
BAKKEN8-20220000000
BAKKEN7-20222210611200173430041900
BAKKEN6-20223016821642253579056400
BAKKEN5-20223121251998309550453490
BAKKEN4-202230225430403324543433954
BAKKEN3-20222820601408379366835260
BAKKEN2-202228191122952493107290661
BAKKEN1-2022312420222125329662512299
BAKKEN12-202131240823351382444222564
BAKKEN11-202129199318981291865170020
BAKKEN10-2021135364779150337860
BAKKEN9-20212231718724936323718
BAKKEN8-2021313954691784803178
BAKKEN7-2021313914581894602978
BAKKEN6-20213045739517254937821
  • 18717, 1,306, Slawson, Sauger Federal 1-22H, Van Hook, t4/10; cum 432K 11/22: recent production, small jump in production;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20223012701174122420365741312
BAKKEN10-202231310532832230501913533511
BAKKEN9-202273450120956950484
BAKKEN8-20220000000
BAKKEN7-20222141647535586370850
BAKKEN6-2022274516974141040803102
BAKKEN5-2022317067165041321110759
BAKKEN4-2022255554783861119866128

  • 38725:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20223012972124184273285198220149
BAKKEN10-20222711485121494586971026117848
BAKKEN9-202251508086109230896

  • 38726:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20223026007254396135196931948063
BAKKEN10-2022272943630080862218200167301335
BAKKEN9-20223167401428101501000
  • 38727:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202225196461903254331305812703230
BAKKEN10-2022181467115440842480217344586
BAKKEN9-202241673019989040883

November 7 - 8, 2022: DUCs reported as completed --

  • 38727, 795, Slawson, Sauger Federal 4-22H, Big Bend, t--; cum 36K 11/2;
  • 38726, 1,083, Slawson, Cannonball Federal 1 SLH, Big Bend, t--; cum 57K 11/22; 
  • 38725, drl/A, Slawson, Sauger Federal 5 SLTFH, t--; cum 26K 11/22;
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US Economy -- Ports Of New York, Los Angeles -- January 25, 2023

Link here.


“Shatters” record …. and we’re still talking about a recession. “Everyone” says it’s a sure thing. This is simply fascinating.

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Sanctions On Russia About To Expand -- January 25, 2023

From Bloomberg today:
The European Union is about to ban imports of refined oil products from Russia. That could be much more disruptive than its earlier halt to crude purchases.

Starting February 5, 2023, imports of diesel, gasoline and other products used for further processing — including fuel oil and vacuum gasoil — cannot be imported from Russia into EU countries. The US and UK already have their own bans in place.

The sanctions will be accompanied by a ban on using European ships, insurance and other services to carry Russian oil products anywhere in the world unless they’re purchased at a price below yet to be determined caps. This mirrors the restrictions on crude shipments that were imposed December 5, 2022.

Overall crude flows from Russia haven’t been hurt by the EU ban, with seaborne shipments remaining around 3 million barrels a day for now. That will please the US Treasury, whose price cap was aimed at keeping oil flowing. Cargoes that previously went to Europe have been diverted to India and China, with shipments from Russia’s western ports sold at prices well below the $60-a-barrel cap.

But things could be very different for refined products trade.

Asia is thirsty for crude. India and China both import huge volumes for their massive refining systems. The two nations took about 14.5 million barrels a day in 2021, and that figure almost certainly increased last year. By contrast, they brought in just 3 million barrels a day of refined products from overseas.

But those huge systems mean that a ready market for Russian refined products outside Europe simply doesn’t exist in the way it did for crude. Many of the newly built plants were designed to maximize the production of diesel, the very fuel for which Russia needs new buyers.

Huge discounts will be needed to make it economic to move Russian-refined products to Asia while, ridiculous as it sounds, shipping similar products from Asian refineries back to Europe.

Without them, Russia may be forced to reduce processing rates and either boost crude sales or cut production levels — something it has managed to avoid so far.
--Julian Lee, Bloomberg Oil Strategist
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US Big Oil Re-Engaging -- January 25, 2023

I think folks can connect the dots. For the archives: at this time, Russia is bogged down in Ukraine.

Huge Chevron deal in the Mideast, Simon Watkins. 

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Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- January 25, 2023

The weekly EIA petroleum report, link here:

  • US crude oil in commercial storage is 3% above the five-year average.
  • US crude oil in commercial storage increased by a paltry 0.5 million bbls
  • US imports of crude oil unchanged week-after-week-after-week
  • US refiners are operating at 86.1% capacity
  • distillate fuel inventories are a whopping 20% below the five-year average as we move into planting season
  • surprising: jet fuel supplied was down 1.9% compared with same four-week period last year (the four weeks included weather and Southwest airline issues)
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Earnings Today, Leopards And Abrams, And So Much More -- January 25, 2023

Dividends: NSC -- from Zacks --

Dividends can be considered one of the most rewarding elements of investing in the stock market.
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC has not disappointed its shareholders on the front and has provided regular dividends since its inception in 1982.
The company has announced a 9% increase in the quarterly dividend amounting to $1.35 from the previous $1.24.
The new dividend is payable on February 21, 2023, to its shareholders of record on February 3, 2023.
Norfolk Southern has an impressive history of rewarding its shareholders. In 2021, the company rewarded its shareholders to the tune of $4,418 million, through dividends ($1,028 million) and share buybacks (3,390 million).

SLB: link here.

HES: tops 4Q22 earnings and revenue estimates.

T: stock leaps after 4Q22 earnings beat, dividend support. 

ASML: great report. Barron's.  CNBC.

Boeing: oh-oh. 4Q22 surprise ... and not in a good way.

Huge Chevron deal in the Mideast, Simon Watkins. 

SRE: strikes 20-year LNG supply deal with Poland's PKN ORLEN. Link here. And, SeekingAlpha.

French nuclear. Why it's failing miserably, and back from the abyss?

Ukraine:

  • that earthquake the Russians are about to feel: German Leopards and US Abrams. 
  • Biden at noon today. 
  • This is going to be huge. Germans said "yes," but said Americans must follow suit. 
  • Biden at noon today. Did I already say that? 

Jet fuel:

  • climbing jet fuel demand could increase beyond 20% year-on-year growth;
  • despite accounting for just 6% of global oil demand in 2022, jet fuel demand is expected to have an outsize impact on global oil markets this year
  • IEA: jet fuel demand may account for 45% of global oil demand growth of 1.9 bpd
  • source: Kayrros

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 46.

The Far Side: link here.

WTI: $80.96.

Natural gas: $3.139.

Thursday, January 26, 2023: 61 for the month; 61 for the quarter, 61 for the year
39047, conf,  CLR, Kelling 7-4H1,
38583, conf, Whiting, Dexter TTT 11-26-2H,
38581, conf, Whiting, Maria TTT 11-26HU,

Wednesday, January 25, 2023: 58 for the month; 58 for the quarter, 58 for the year
39048, conf, CLR, Kelling 8-4H,
39000, conf, Hunt, Alexandria 161-100-24-13H-5,
38867, conf, Prima Exploration, Yogi Bear State 3H,
34525, conf, Slawson, Armada Federal 7-14-18H,

RBN Energy: Colorado E&Ps learn to deal with state's tougher rules. 

New, stiffer rules on well siting, drilling and production undoubtedly pose potential challenges to producers. After all, these changes typically impose further limits on what E&Ps can do on the acreage they control as well as new requirements. But like death and taxes, environmental regulation is a certainty that producers need to deal with and, if they’re lucky, they can find a way to work with new rules and minimize their impact on their businesses. That seems to be what’s happening in Colorado — home to the rebounding Denver-Julesburg (DJ) Basin and other production areas — which enacted a new oil and gas permitting law a couple of years ago and subsequently developed and implemented related regulations. As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, most producers seem to have figured out how to manage the new regs.

Colorado isn’t California and it isn’t Texas, and our guess is that, generally speaking, Coloradans are happy with that. The state’s got amazing mountains, crisp and clean air, awesome skiing and cool microbreweries, plus a strong economy, relatively low taxes, and great cities, towns and rural areas to call home. It also seems to have found an acceptable middle ground on the regulation of the oil and gas industry.

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