My Favorite Chart -- January 24, 2023

Link here.

My favorite chart has just been updated. Whoo-hoo!

Predicted.

Here We Go -- Hess To Increase CAPEX By Almost 40% -- So Much For All That Talk About Disciplined CAPEX Spending In 2023 -- January 24, 2023

Link here.

"SuicideBlonde" is new to me. I now follow him/her.

More Signs That Things May Be Improving -- January 24, 2023

This is huge, if it holds. 

I would imagine "most of us" were more concerned about the European economy than the US economy with regard to a global recession. 

For the US, previously posted, GDPNow:

From the linked WSJ article

Two of the world’s largest economies moved in opposite directions at the start of the year, with U.S. businesses reporting further declines in activity in January while the eurozone saw a modest pickup.

The divergence suggests that while the U.S. economy continues to lose momentum, Europe’s could be stabilizing, at least for now. The pace of contraction in U.S. firms slowed in January, according to new business surveys released Tuesday, a possible signal that the economy could be bottoming out, thanks to slowing inflation and resilient demand.

Combined, the surveys point to a global economy that looks likely to slow this year but could avoid recession. The receding threat of energy shortages in Europe, a still-growing U.S. economy, and China’s postpandemic reopening could offset the effect of higher prices and interest rates and keep the world from a steep downturn.

In the U.S., the economy continues to expand late last year, despite the Federal Reserve’s string of interest-rate increases designed to cool the economy and bring inflation under control. Higher rates have weighed heavily on certain sectors and could be causing households to pull back.

Some folks are suggesting that JPow could increase the Fed Rate by 50 basis points in February -- add 0.5% -- add a half-point -- to the current rate -- my wager, it's a two-parter:

• first part: the Fed raises the rate by only a quarter point;
• second part: "one and done

How To Read A Cash Flow Statement -- January 24, 2023

Link here.

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Dividends/FCF 

Link here.

Meanwhile, the problem for oil companies (or problems for their shareholders), link here

From my perspective, this will never change, unless they want it to change, and the only way to change it is to more fully reward the investors in the short term, through dividends, not share buybacks.

Later: after discussion with a reader in an e-mail exchange, I admit I'm wrong. My comments regarding the CNBC screenshot were completely wrong. The talking head or the tweet is completely off base, comparing apples to oranges.

Monthly DUC Count -- January 24, 2023

From a reader, thank you very, very much. 

DUCs have come way down, in the Bakken, in round numbers from 800 / month (2020 and before) to 500 / month.

Month/Year	Drilled	Completed	DUCs
	Bakken
	Drilled	Completed	DUC
Dec-13	--	--	603
Jan-14	174	143	634
Feb-14	214	158	690
Mar-14	216	218	688
Apr-14	220	207	701
May-14	216	208	709
Jun-14	237	225	721
Jul-14	257	243	735
Aug-14	229	207	757
Sep-14	250	232	775
Oct-14	186	243	718
Nov-14	209	202	725
Dec-14	224	194	755
Jan-15	197	193	759
Feb-15	230	151	838
Mar-15	182	170	850
Apr-15	142	127	865
May-15	124	139	850
Jun-15	110	135	825
Jul-15	102	124	803
Aug-15	111	101	813
Sep-15	99	92	820
Oct-15	118	84	854
Nov-15	100	89	865
Dec-15	98	78	885
Jan-16	71	80	876
Feb-16	61	41	896
Mar-16	68	45	919
Apr-16	43	39	923
May-16	46	59	910
Jun-16	42	54	898
Jul-16	45	56	887
Aug-16	53	82	858
Sep-16	49	66	841
Oct-16	59	85	815
Nov-16	61	86	790
Dec-16	53	49	794
Jan-17	62	52	804
Feb-17	51	58	797
Mar-17	78	71	804
Apr-17	78	104	778
May-17	94	82	790
Jun-17	76	105	761
Jul-17	95	103	753
Aug-17	99	110	742
Sep-17	98	97	743
Oct-17	104	110	737
Nov-17	93	86	744
Dec-17	77	65	756
Jan-18	107	72	791
Feb-18	74	74	791
Mar-18	95	90	796
Apr-18	109	110	795
May-18	124	131	788
Jun-18	108	118	778
Jul-18	134	155	757
Aug-18	108	138	727
Sep-18	108	122	713
Oct-18	120	118	715
Nov-18	110	99	726
Dec-18	108	70	764
Jan-19	120	71	813
Feb-19	108	56	865
Mar-19	111	110	866
Apr-19	118	112	872
May-19	127	127	872
Jun-19	118	149	841
Jul-19	122	122	841
Aug-19	122	144	819
Sep-19	110	88	841
Oct-19	116	108	849
Nov-19	96	88	857
Dec-19	94	86	865
Jan-20	99	98	866
Feb-20	94	100	860
Mar-20	94	108	846
Apr-20	69	33	882
May-20	33	14	901
Jun-20	18	11	908
Jul-20	18	22	904
Aug-20	19	27	896
Sep-20	18	51	863
Oct-20	19	41	841
Nov-20	20	31	830
Dec-20	20	50	800
Jan-21	20	41	779
Feb-21	19	24	774
Mar-21	25	45	754
Apr-21	27	46	735
May-21	29	62	702
Jun-21	31	33	700
Jul-21	32	61	671
Aug-21	39	69	641
Sep-21	42	78	605
Oct-21	43	78	570
Nov-21	46	62	554
Dec-21	52	50	556
Jan-22	53	45	564
Feb-22	64	59	569
Mar-22	66	76	559
Apr-22	58	65	552
May-22	75	76	551
Jun-22	75	77	549
Jul-22	75	79	545
Aug-22	76	78	543
Sep-22	78	85	536
Oct-22	77	83	530
Nov-22	79	81	528
Dec-22	80	77	531