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Tuesday, January 24, 2023

My Favorite Chart -- January 24, 2023

Link here.

My favorite chart has just been updated. Whoo-hoo!


Predicted.

More Signs That Things May Be Improving -- January 24, 2023

This is huge, if it holds


I would imagine "most of us" were more concerned about the European economy than the US economy with regard to a global recession. 

For the US, previously posted, GDPNow:

From the linked WSJ article

Two of the world’s largest economies moved in opposite directions at the start of the year, with U.S. businesses reporting further declines in activity in January while the eurozone saw a modest pickup.

The divergence suggests that while the U.S. economy continues to lose momentum, Europe’s could be stabilizing, at least for now. The pace of contraction in U.S. firms slowed in January, according to new business surveys released Tuesday, a possible signal that the economy could be bottoming out, thanks to slowing inflation and resilient demand.

Combined, the surveys point to a global economy that looks likely to slow this year but could avoid recession. The receding threat of energy shortages in Europe, a still-growing U.S. economy, and China’s postpandemic reopening could offset the effect of higher prices and interest rates and keep the world from a steep downturn.

In the U.S., the economy continues to expand late last year, despite the Federal Reserve’s string of interest-rate increases designed to cool the economy and bring inflation under control. Higher rates have weighed heavily on certain sectors and could be causing households to pull back.

Some folks are suggesting that JPow could increase the Fed Rate by 50 basis points in February -- add 0.5% -- add a half-point -- to the current rate -- my wager, it's a two-parter:

  • first part: the Fed raises the rate by only a quarter point;
  • second part: "one and done

How To Read A Cash Flow Statement -- January 24, 2023

Link here.

*********************
Dividends/FCF 

Link here.


Meanwhile, the problem for oil companies (or problems for their shareholders), link here



From my perspective, this will never change, unless they want it to change, and the only way to change it is to more fully reward the investors in the short term, through dividends, not share buybacks.

Later: after discussion with a reader in an e-mail exchange, I admit I'm wrong. My comments regarding the CNBC screenshot were completely wrong. The talking head or the tweet is completely off base, comparing apples to oranges.

Monthly DUC Count -- January 24, 2023

From a reader, thank you very, very much. 

DUCs have come way down, in the Bakken, in round numbers from 800 / month (2020 and before) to 500 / month.

Month/Year

Drilled    

Completed

DUCs


Bakken


Drilled

Completed

DUC

Dec-13

--

--

603

Jan-14

174

143

634

Feb-14

214

158

690

Mar-14

216

218

688

Apr-14

220

207

701

May-14

216

208

709

Jun-14

237

225

721

Jul-14

257

243

735

Aug-14

229

207

757

Sep-14

250

232

775

Oct-14

186

243

718

Nov-14

209

202

725

Dec-14

224

194

755

Jan-15

197

193

759

Feb-15

230

151

838

Mar-15

182

170

850

Apr-15

142

127

865

May-15

124

139

850

Jun-15

110

135

825

Jul-15

102

124

803

Aug-15

111

101

813

Sep-15

99

92

820

Oct-15

118

84

854

Nov-15

100

89

865

Dec-15

98

78

885

Jan-16

71

80

876

Feb-16

61

41

896

Mar-16

68

45

919

Apr-16

43

39

923

May-16

46

59

910

Jun-16

42

54

898

Jul-16

45

56

887

Aug-16

53

82

858

Sep-16

49

66

841

Oct-16

59

85

815

Nov-16

61

86

790

Dec-16

53

49

794

Jan-17

62

52

804

Feb-17

51

58

797

Mar-17

78

71

804

Apr-17

78

104

778

May-17

94

82

790

Jun-17

76

105

761

Jul-17

95

103

753

Aug-17

99

110

742

Sep-17

98

97

743

Oct-17

104

110

737

Nov-17

93

86

744

Dec-17

77

65

756

Jan-18

107

72

791

Feb-18

74

74

791

Mar-18

95

90

796

Apr-18

109

110

795

May-18

124

131

788

Jun-18

108

118

778

Jul-18

134

155

757

Aug-18

108

138

727

Sep-18

108

122

713

Oct-18

120

118

715

Nov-18

110

99

726

Dec-18

108

70

764

Jan-19

120

71

813

Feb-19

108

56

865

Mar-19

111

110

866

Apr-19

118

112

872

May-19

127

127

872

Jun-19

118

149

841

Jul-19

122

122

841

Aug-19

122

144

819

Sep-19

110

88

841

Oct-19

116

108

849

Nov-19

96

88

857

Dec-19

94

86

865

Jan-20

99

98

866

Feb-20

94

100

860

Mar-20

94

108

846

Apr-20

69

33

882

May-20

33

14

901

Jun-20

18

11

908

Jul-20

18

22

904

Aug-20

19

27

896

Sep-20

18

51

863

Oct-20

19

41

841

Nov-20

20

31

830

Dec-20

20

50

800

Jan-21

20

41

779

Feb-21

19

24

774

Mar-21

25

45

754

Apr-21

27

46

735

May-21

29

62

702

Jun-21

31

33

700

Jul-21

32

61

671

Aug-21

39

69

641

Sep-21

42

78

605

Oct-21

43

78

570

Nov-21

46

62

554

Dec-21

52

50

556

Jan-22

53

45

564

Feb-22

64

59

569

Mar-22

66

76

559

Apr-22

58

65

552

May-22

75

76

551

Jun-22

75

77

549

Jul-22

75

79

545

Aug-22

76

78

543

Sep-22

78

85

536

Oct-22

77

83

530

Nov-22

79

81

528

Dec-22

80

77

531