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Wednesday, January 4, 2023

The Grayson Mill Knight Wells In Banks Oil Field

Four new permits, #39541 - #39544, inclusive, today, January 4, 2023:

  • Operator: Grayson Mill
  • Field: Banks (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Grayson Mill has permits for four Knight wells in SESE 35-153-98, 
      • to be sited 244 FSL and between 974 FEL and 1064 FEL

The Grayson Mill Knight wells in Banks oil field:

  • 21543, 3,203, Grayson Mill, Knight 35-26 1H, Banks, t9/12; cum 346K 11/22;
  • 24360, 4,884, Grayson Mill, Knight 35-26 2H, Banks, t12/13; cum 344K 11/22;
  • 24361, 3,099, Grayson Mill, Knight 35-26 3TFH, Banks, t12/13; cum 264K 11/22;
  • 24362, 3,509, Grayson Mill, Knight 35-26 4H, Banks, t12/13; cum 306K 11/22;
  • 39541, loc, Grayson Mill, Knight 35-26F 5TFH, Banks, 
  • 39542, loc, Grayson Mill, Knight 35-26F 6H, Banks,
  • 39543, loc, Grayson Mill, Knight 35-26F 7TFH, Banks,
  • 39544, loc, Grayson Mill, Knight 35-26F XE 1H, Banks,

Recent production for #21543:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202230235922573337478047413
BAKKEN10-202219794744426141014100
BAKKEN9-20222810991226631180818080
BAKKEN8-202231987945522134113365
BAKKEN7-20223195586348097795522
BAKKEN6-202230924106243579853745
BAKKEN5-202231109210913846470647
BAKKEN4-202228877961337101
BAKKEN3-2022311197114536557489
BAKKEN2-2022287176881055707
BAKKEN1-20223169265184218018
BAKKEN12-20213184892478164359710
BAKKEN11-2021301629153014174966495115
BAKKEN10-20213112671389729253725361
BAKKEN9-20213016801521898270126992
BAKKEN8-202131163217211333309230920
BAKKEN7-202131158416601240484148410
BAKKEN6-202130189018621696558555850
BAKKEN5-20219907676481183318330

********************
The Maps


Grayson Mill With New Permits In The Prolific Banks Oil Field -- January 4, 2023

Active rigs: 45.

WTI: $73.37. Held. Up slightly.

Natural gas: $4.077.

Four new permits, #39541 - #39544, inclusive:

  • Operator: Grayson Mill
  • Field: Banks (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Grayson Mill has permits for four Knight wells in SESE 35-153-98, 
      • to be sited 244 FSL and between 974 FEL and 1064 FEL
      • see this post for maps
      • FWIW: these are the first permits of 2023

Four permits renewed:

  • Whiting: four State Federal wells in NENW 16-148-99; Bully oil field; McKenzie County

Rambling Thoughts -- Investing -- January 4, 2023

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.     

Updated.

Investors:

  • for those with a 30-year horizon, this is going to be another great year for investing;
  • at the rate the Fed initiated and continued the increases in the Fed rate, Schwab data suggests 550 days (range 500 - 650) before the market gets back to "where it was"
    • start: March 20, 2022; days remaining in 2022 -- 286
    • end, "back to where were" range:
      • 500 - 286 = 214 = August 2, 2023 (summer doldrums; dog days of summer)
      • 650 - 286 = 364 = December 30, 2023 (Santa Claus rally)
  • long-term investors can keep picking up shares at deep discounts at least until mid-year, 2023;
  • in other words, this "story" -- at best -- is just mid-cycle. A lot of time left before we "get back to where we were." 
  • universities and other magnets for donations will probably feel the effect the greatest as donors cut back.
  • AAPL re-sets: now a "value" company; not a "growth" company. Will trade at a lower P/E. Perhaps true also for other companies, like Tesla.

Two questions:

  • the bottom: how low and when?
  • does the Fed pivot sooner than expected? [that possibility seemed less likely as of January 4, 2023].

Additional comments:

  • for retirees, RMDs are going to be very, very low this year; and will probably remain very low in 2024 if the Fed stays "higher for longer" [confirmed Wednesday, January 4, 2023, when JPow said there would be more rate raises in 2023].
  • dividend-paying stocks are looking very, very good

API Data -- January 4, 2023

US crude oil inventories "continue to crash," while products continue to build -- Julianne Geiger.

  • US crude oil inventories dropped for fourth week in a row
    • forecast: a draw of 3.9 million bbls
    • actual: a draw of 6.4 million bbls
    • prior week: a draw of a whopping 7.9 million bbls
  • in addition to a draw of 2.1 million bbls from the SPR in the week ending December 2, 2022;
    • SPR now at 387 million bbls
  • overall:
    • US crude inventories: grew by just 6 million bbls in 2022
    • US SPR sunk by more than 32 times that figure: a decrease of 206 bbls in 2022

EIA data to be released tomorrow.

Crude oil production:

  • US crude oil production: 12.1 million bopd; unchanged for the fourth week in a row
    that's 400,000 bopd more than production at start of 2022:
  • production remains one million bopd less than that seen prior to the pandemic

Product build:

  • gasoline:
    • most recent week: a build of 6 million bbls
    • previous week: a build of almost 3 million bbls
  • distillate:
    • most recent week: a build of 3.6 million bbls
    • previous week: a build of almost 4 million bbls
  • Cushing:
    • most recent week: a build of 30,000 bbls
    • previous week: a decrease of 150,000 bbls


Harold Hamm Donates $50 Million -- TRP Library -- Largest Donor -- January 4, 2023

Link here. Archived.

BISMARCK — Billionaire businessman Harold Hamm has donated $50 million to the group behind the planned Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library, a massive tourism project slated for Medora, North Dakota.

Hamm, founder of oil giant Continental Resources, emerged as one of the leading beneficiaries of western North Dakota's oil boom in the late 2000s. The Oklahoma native has since grabbed headlines in the state for his philanthropic work, including eight-figure donations to the University of North Dakota and the University of Mary.

The hefty check Hamm has written the Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library Foundation makes him the project's leading donor. Melani and Rob Walton, of the Walmart fortune, previously committed $50 million to the project, but they later pared down their gift to $15 million.

Hamm, 77, ....

 Much more at the link.

A cursory internet search suggests upwards of $200 million now available for this library.

  • Obama library: $500 million
  • Reagan library: $60 million ($100 million in 2020 dollars)

Link here.

Updating A Couple Of CLR Long Creek Unit Wells -- The Truman Federal Wells -- January 4, 2023

The CLR Long Creek Unit is tracked here. There are approximately 60 wells in this project started about two years ago. It appears that all wells in this unit have reached TD; some may yet need to be fracked going into a North Dakota winter.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 36983, 603, CLR, LCU Truman Federal 5-21H1, Long Creek, t--; cum 122K 11/22,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2022211592215998163143161431142426
BAKKEN10-20223138514385533039369340677021567
BAKKEN9-2022303881638735330405911258279762
BAKKEN8-20222928867287833389341143395571495
BAKKEN7-2022446461851000
  • 36984, 673, CLR, LCU Truman Federal 4-23H, Long Creek, t--; cum 154K 11/22,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2022293273532784275515876057787791
BAKKEN10-20223146136461653771778965769771782
BAKKEN9-2022304220442117362846281161798808
BAKKEN8-20222932088319953562345110432101633
BAKKEN7-2022345645619745300

Day Two Of The New Year -- January 4, 2023

Surprising! Not surprising: new car sales in Norway -- 88% were EVs!

  • first thought: puts the lie to cold weather and EV issues;
  • Norway: it's a one-off
    • huge subsidies; state policies favor EVs (free parking, e.g.)
    • most important: it is unacceptable to not buy an EV in Norway
    • outcast, leper, persona non grata, pariah, untouchable, exile, reject
    • source of electricity: hydroelectricity
    • average daily driving distance: within one's own urban area
    • much/most of the population lives in three cities 
      • 5.4 million total; 
      • Oslo (metropolitan area): 1.6 million; Bergen: 275,000; Trondheim: 185 million
    • almost no farming

Speaking of farmland:

  • in the US: in 2017, the United States had just over 2 million farms, down 3.2 percent from 2012. These farms accounted for 900.2 million acres of land in farms, or 40 percent of all U.S. land. This was a decline of 14.3 million acres (1.6 percent) from the 2012 level. During the same time, the average farm size increased 1.6 percent, from 434 acres in 2012 to 441 acres in 2017.
  • in Norway: only 3 percent of Norway's total land area (excluding Svalbard and Jan Mayen) is farmed land. Of the 3 percent in agricultural use, only a smaller part is located in areas where climatic conditions are suitable for growing cereals for human consumption.

On tap for today (note: one story below answered my question for today -- it's the first week of the month; I invest the first and third week of each month; what was I going to buy today? I can't say more because this is not an investment site):


From Bloomberg today

  • China: re-opening.

  • Chart of the day:

  • Best of the rest:

************************
Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 43.

WTI: $75.08. Down 2.4%; down $1.85.

Natural gas: $4.050.

Friday, January6, 2023:
None.

Thursday, January 5, 2023:
36900, conf, Bowline, Shaffer 155-102-27-22-6H,

Wednesday, January 4, 2023:
None.

RBN Energy: latest cold blast sets new records for the Canadian gas market. Archived.

In a part of the world where enduring a cold winter is often seen as a badge of honor, the latest cold blast that descended on Canada just before Christmas — and during Christmas in the U.S. — was another one for the natural gas record books. By almost every measure, the recent frigid temperatures, though not long-lasting, set new Canadian records for daily demand, storage withdrawals, and net exports to the U.S., and went well beyond the records set during Winter Storm Uri in February 2021. In today’s RBN blog, we delve into the latest record-busting Canadian gas data
Yeah, it’s winter in Canada, where snow, cold, and long, dark nights are countered by plenty of natural gas to keep schools, businesses, and millions of homes warm across the nation — and in many parts of the U.S., where Canadian natural gas is still an important part of the supply mix. That omnipresent blue flame of combusting natural gas is most appreciated when extreme cold snaps set in across parts — or most of — North America, as was the case leading up to and during the Christmas break this year. Unlike Winter Storm Uri 23 months ago, which crippled large parts of the U.S. natural gas network for more than a week as far south as the Houston Ship Channel, the latest barrage of Arctic cold that swept across Canada and into the U.S. — known as Winter Storm Elliott — only stayed a few days, but it still managed to generate some havoc — and new records for the Canadian gas market.
It wasn’t that long ago that we last discussed what seemed to be out-of-this-world, for the Canadian gas market, February 2021.
Those records coincided with the aforementioned gas market chaos that came with Winter Storm Uri, where parts of the U.S. market received a bailout thanks to Canadian gas. Though dealing with its own brutal cold snap at the time and record-setting demand, Canadians were happy to open up the valves and send (then) record amounts of natural gas to their southern neighbor when it needed it most, given that significant amounts of U.S. domestic gas production had been shut in due to wellhead freeze-offs stretching from the Bakken to the Permian. Canadian gas exports were instrumental in preventing widespread loss of life in many Northern states during the worst of Uri’s wrath.
The latest large-scale Arctic blast of cold originated in Western Canada on December 17, spread across a wide swath of Canada as far east as the Great Lakes, then penetrated well into the U.S. — as far south as Texas and over to parts of the East Coast.
The frigid temperatures and wind chills didn’t seem to have quite the same punch as Uri and dissipated from Western Canada by Christmas Eve, but it was one for the record books in terms of its truly eye-popping impacts on the Canadian gas market that we will get to in a moment.