Disclaimer -- January 2, 2023

Nothing precipitated this disclaimer except that it's a new year and I'm getting older ...

I often make typographical and content errors. If something is important to you, go to the source. If something on the blog seems wrong, it probably is. 

If I find errors, I will correct them but I miss a lot.

I make simple arithmetic errors all the time. 

I often misread things.

I have a poor memory. 

That's why I started the blog in the first place. To try to keep track of things.

This is not an investment site. Do not make financial or life decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

This is the disclaimer I posted back in 2009; I assume it's still accurate.

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Santa Claus

Our son-in-law, and twin boys, 2.5 years old.

Another Look At Kraken Wells In Burg Oil Field -- January 2, 2023

Readers need to take another look at this post from December 28, 2022 -- last Friday. 

I completely missed it. A reader caught it and pointed it out to me this evening.

I missed it; my bad. I am getting too complacent; not lazy, I'm working as hard as ever, but I am getting complacent. I should not have missed this. Wells in this area are not generally this good.

So, what's going on? As the reader said me, I'm "comparing apples to oranges."

#38509 is an extra-long (or extended long) lateral -- instead of the usual two-section (two-mile, or 20,000-foot horizontal) it a three-section (three-mile, 26,000-foot horizontal (TD). 

So, it's a third longer than the "usual" Bakken well, and that explains the great production in this part of North Dakota, well north of Williston.

The well:

• 38509, F/A, Kraken, Jenna 4-33-28 3H, Burg, t--; cum 257K 11/22; 240K x $70 = $17 million at the wellhead:

There are four wells on this pad; three run north; one runs south. All four are extended-length laterals.

The other three:

• 38510, F/A, Kraken, Jenna LE 4-33-28 1TFH, Burg, t--; cum 180K 11/22;
  38511, F/A, Kraken, Alamo 3-24-27 2H, Burg, t--; cum 201K 11/22;
  38558, F/A, Kraken, Maddie LW 10-15-22 1H, Burg, t--; cum 167K 11/22;
  38512, PNC,
  

By the way, the nomenclature:

• 38509, Jenna 4-33-28 3H -- although sited in (the far northeast corner of section 9) the horizontal is perforated in all of sections 4, 33, and 28 (running north);
• 38510, Jenna LE 4-38-28 -- this is a section line well, the horizontal perforated in sections 4, 33, and 28; running north; as a section line well, the number of sections affected is double. So, in this case this well is spaced for six sections.
• 38558, this is a section line well (on the west side); the horizontal perforated in sections 10, 15, and 22; running south; as a section line well, the number of sections affected is double. So, in this case this well is spaced for six sections.

I looked at data for one frack.

• #38509: 15.3 million lbs of proppant, and 90 stages.
  

The reader thinks Kraken will drill a number of super-extended laterals; the reader counts at least ten such locations in this area. 

So, if one sees a 1920-acre standup or 1920-acre laydown spacing unit, one needs to think of the possibility of a three-section (extended long or super-long) lateral.

A huge thanks to the reader for catching this. 

Again, I'm embarrassed I didn't catch this. 

Lynn Helms said he expected to see a lot of 3-section horizontals. He almost sounded like it might become the norm where operators have the ability to put together three-section drilling units.

Laser-Focused On Dividends -- XOM -- January 2, 2023

Link to Alex Kimani.

 
In case you missed it from the other day:

Link here.

CVX:

• one year ago: $120
• last week: $180
• yield: 3.1%

They Need To Meet In And With India -- January 2, 2023

India and Russian oil, link here.

Petro-Logistics article here.

Baseline data, prior to D5S here.

Link here.

From earlier:

This year, 2023: India overtakes China as most populous nation. Link here.

• China: down-slope
• India: up-slope

Initial Production For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- January 2, 2023

The wells:

• 27880, conf, CLR, Jersey Federal 18-6H, Alkali Creek, no production data, 
• 38530, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 43-31-2H, Sanish,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2022	16996	18163
10-2022	19842	18977
9-2022	21706	18444
8-2022	18257	11582
7-2022	6067	4258

• 38196, conf, Hess, EN-Rehak A-155-94-1423H-7, Manitou,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2022	12970	18569
9-2022	18181	23659
8-2022	17922	28261
7-2022	28522	27980

• 37565, conf, Petro-Hunt, Johnson 158-94-14A-23-2H, East Tioga, no production data,
• 36179, conf, BR, George 2C MBH, Pershing, no production data, 
• 27879, conf, CLR, Jersey FIU 17-6H, Alkali Creek, no production data, 
• 37566, conf, Petro-Hunt, Johnson 158-94-14A-23-1HS, East Tioga, no production data,
• 38197, conf, Hess, EN-Rehak A-155-94-1423H-6, Manitou,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2022	21935	34846
9-2022	25358	42457
8-2022	20721	16505
7-2022	40869	10135

• 36180, conf, BR, George 2B TFH, Pershing, no production data, 
• 38918, conf, Rampart Energy Company, Coteau 4, Wildcat,  NESW 1-145-88; 
• 36181, conf, BR, George 2A MBH, Pershing, no production data, 
• 36900, conf, Bowline, Shaffer 155-102-27-22-6H, Squires,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2022	14875	13095
9-2022	18867	18970
8-2022	24282	22475
7-2022	21576	19594

• 38413, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 11-5-3HU, Sanish,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2022	12073	11123
10-2022	27073	25182
9-2022	26919	27241
8-2022	21276	19018
7-2022	9797	8461

• 27878, conf, CLR, Jerey FIU 16-16H1, Alkali Creek, no production data, 
• 38531, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 43-31XH, Sanish,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2022	21863	29607
10-2022	23168	25836
9-2022	24290	21031
8-2022	21182	13802
7-2022	12336	10424

• 38198, conf, Hess, EN-Rehak A-155-94-1423H-5, Manitou,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2022	11934	15525
9-2022	15968	21110
8-2022	12482	15828
7-2022	36075	25005

• 38955, conf, Ovintiv, Anderson Federal 152-96-9-4-6H,Westberg, no production data,
  

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- Januuary 2, 2023

Wednesday, January 11, 2023:
27880, conf, CLR, Jersey Federal 18-6H,

Tuesday, January 10, 2023:
38530, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 43-31-2H,
38196, conf, Hess, EN-Rehak A-155-94-1423H-7,
37565, conf, Petro-Hunt, Johnson 158-94-14A-23-2H,
36179, conf, BR, George 2C MBH,
27879, conf, CLR, Jersey FIU 17-6H,

Monday, January 9, 2023:
37566, conf, Petro-Hunt, Johnson 158-94-14A-23-1HS,

Sunday, January 8, 2023:
38197, conf, Hess, EN-Rehak A-155-94-1423H-6,
36180, conf, BR, George 2B TFH,

Saturday, January 7, 2023:
38918, conf, Rampart Energy Company, Coteau 4,
36181, conf, BR, George 2A MBH,

Friday, January6, 2023:
None.

Thursday, January 5, 2023:
36900, conf, Bowline, Shaffer 155-102-27-22-6H,

Wednesday, January 4, 2023:
None.

Tuesday, January 3, 2023:
38413, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 11-5-3HU,
27878, conf, CLR, Jerey FIU 16-16H1,

Monday, January 2, 2023:
38531, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 43-31XH,
38198, conf, Hess, EN-Rehak A-155-94-1423H-5,

Sunday, January 1, 2023:
38955, conf, Ovintiv, Anderson Federal 152-96-9-4-6H,

Laser-Focused On Dividends -- EOG -- January 2, 2023

Link here.

Dividend: 

• 2019: $1.015 (4 distributions)
  
• 2020: $1.4125 (4 distributions)
• 2021: $4.6125 (6 distributions)
• 2022: $8.80 (8 distributions)

One year ago: share price, $94

• $8.80 / $94 = 8.95 yield

Texas Round-Up -- January 2, 2023

Link here. When you go to the link, be sure to click on the "year" (first column) to make sure the year "2022" is included.

The numbers for 2022:

• total number of companies in 2022: 24
• (in 2021, there were 62 companies listed)
• from:
• CA: 7
• PA: 4
• IL: 2
• to
• Dallas, north Dallas, and Irving: 10
• Ft Worth area: 5
• Austin, Round Rock, Kyle: 2 
  
• most recognized: 
• CAT
• most interesting:
• Noodoe EV, from Irvine, CA
• Clevon, from Estonia (Europe)
  

Noodoe EV:

• manages EV charging networks
• cloud-based
• moved to Irvine, CA, in 2020 because it was growing so fast
• moved to Houston, TX in 2022

Clevon:

• manufactures autonomous robot couriers, last-mile delivery
• founded in Estonia
• launched in US (Fort Worth, TX) in 2022
• tech partners: Nvidia, Toshiba

Global Covid Numbers -- December 31, 2022

Updates

January 3, 2023: from a reader who corresponds with me frequently regarding the Bakken, sent this comment following the original post below:

I send out a note and a little collection of Covid news most Sundays, time permitting....since you've had a couple posts up on it recently, i figured you might be interested in my short take...

The CDC says new Covid cases are down 17.3% over the past week, probably because the bean counters in several states took the week off, and since they're only publishing one aggregate national figure for the week, there's really nothing there to go on...checking https://biobot.io/data/, which aggregates Covid particles found in wastewater nationally, would suggest infections are rising at a 12% weekly rate, and that current levels of the virus in sewer water are already higher now than at any time other than during last winter’s initial Omicron wave...biobot breaks that national total down into four regions, and it's clear that surging infections in the Northeast are driving the national increase; they're about 70% higher than those in the South and Midwest, and nearly 3 times the levels in the west...

what really gave me pause this week were the latest variant proportions (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions) the CDC now shows that 40.5% of our new cases were the XBB.1.5 variant, which they didn't even show separately last week, when they aggregated XBB and XBB.1 totals together at 18.3% (XBB is now 3.6%)...Dr Eric Topol, who's become an internet authority on Covid, believes XBB evolved into XBB.1.5 in New York, so it appears we're seeing the emergence of a new mutation that is contagious enough to push all the previous super contagious variants out of the way...XBB and BQ now account for about 90% of our cases....

So we're pretty screwed, virtually back to square one-- this study, from scientists at Columbia University and the University of Michigan, published in the journal Cell, explains where we're at quite succinctly: 

Alarming antibody evasion properties of rising SARSCoV-2 BQ and XBB subvariants --(pdf).

In brief: Recent BQ and XBB subvariants of SARS-CoV-2 demonstrate dramatically increased ability to evade neutralizing antibodies, even those from people who received the bivalent mRNA booster or who are immunized and had previous breakthrough Omicron infection. Additionally, both BQ and XBB are completely resistant to bebtelovimab, meaning there are now no clinically authorized therapeutic antibodies effective against these circulating variants.

Comment: I am much less alarmed/concerned. We should see how this plays out in the next three months.

 Original Post

From two days ago, link here. I assume this is a function of the holiday season in the US when many state agencies were closed and data was not being reported. Nonetheless, it is quite striking.

Having said that the numbers were absolutely consistent with the numbers about six days ago. 

What's the USA doing differently than Asia?

The table below is ranked by number of new cases which mirrors closes the ranking by active cases for the first several countries. 

Thailand doesn't report active cases and Vietnam's numbers are suspicious.