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Sunday, December 18, 2022

The Stories We Will Be Talking About This Next Week -- December 19, 2022

De-industrialization of Germany continues. From Reuters:

Southern Surge: Title 42 expires, December 21, 2022.

  • no matter how DC spins it, the word at the border: we're back to "open borders; Biden welcomes us; thank you, Mr Biden"; daily encounters expected to jump from 5,000 average to 15,000 daily;
  • local landowners along border finally come to terms with state of Texas;

Trump's NFTs sold out in twelve hours last week.

Avatar 2 fails. Bob Iger won't be happy. Iger: Florida. Cameron: Hollywood.

  • it has nothing to do with politics; it's a lousy movie.

The winter blast that will shut down the Bakken.

The winter blast that will hit New England, and Europe.

Russian sanctions working. Beyond all expectations.

Coal: global demand hits all-time record. 

Big Oil: to pour billions into the Permian.

EVs: in Norway, more expensive to charge than to refill an ICE; 

  • gasoline is very, very expensive in Europe

The Cowboys. Or, perhaps, better said, Zak Prescott. I'm not impressed.

  • how in the world did they ever lose to the Jaguars? 
  • Cooper Rush would not have thrown an interception in OT. Why? Cooper Rush can't pass.
  • but Cooper Rush would have won.

NDSU vs SDSU.

CLR's monster wells.

Money market funds: is Schwab the best? 

On-line Adderall: there's a huge back-story to this -- ask your mental health provider and you might get an earful:

Avatar -- December 18, 2022

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Avatar

Updates

December 19, 2022: at the end of the day (the weekend in this case), Avatar actually did quite well. Link here.

December 18, 2022: fails


Box Office Pro analyst Shawn Robbins had predicted earlier this month the movie would bring in somewhere between $167 million and $192 million after positive hype.

It still makes 'Avatar' sequel the seventh-highest-grossing December opening weekend in history, but marks a lower take than "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever," which took in $181 million earlier this year. 

The film reportedly cost $350 million to make. Director James Cameron has declined to state a number publicly but reportedly suggested it would need to take in more than $2 billion to break even, according to Variety

Disney took control of the rights to "Avatar" with its $71 billion acquisition of Fox in 2019.

December 18, 2022: Disney cuts Avatar 2 forecast

 Original Post

Saw opening night Avatar with Sophia tonight.

We both agreed that it is not suitable for third graders; too much violence. No PDA (personal displays of affection); not one bit of bad language -- Sophia said there was a little -- okay, four words, the worst being "damn," used once.

More on this movie later. 

After reading Quentin Tarantino's book (2022); watching a lot of TCM; reading voraciously -- I've become a very hard critic of movies. I will watch to see others review this movie before I add anything else, but it's going to break all attendance records and revenue records for first weekend.

It can only be enjoyed on the big screen; watch it on the biggest screen you can find.

Cast: Sigourney Weaver -- a cameo appearance;

From Rotten Tomatoes:

  • Rating: PG-13
    • Partial Nudity: disagree; I see more at our apartment complex swimming pool than I saw in this movie; and, I saw more at Ringling Bros circus in Williston when I was eight years old (back in the late 1950s);
    • Intense Action: agree completely; ninety minutes or more of nothing but violence (and none of it suspenseful)
    • Sequences of Strong Violence: agree completely; see above;
    • Some Strong Language: disagree completely; four separate words, each used worse, the worse was "damn"; 

Forbes review: link here. The review hit the bull's eye.

The New Yorker: another great review. Pans the movie.

The Washington Post: pans the movie.

Deadline: $130 - $150 million opening -- much less than expected.

Lego - Avatar: brilliant.

38500, CLR, Whitman, Oakdale -- Now Being Reported -- December 18, 2022

The monster CLR Whitman wells are tracked here.

The well:

  • 38500, 1,917, CLR, Whitman FIU 6-34H2, Oakdale, minimal production; a monster well; t--; cum 121K 10/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20223148016479633018058554583096
BAKKEN9-2022304361543605409954407743861216
BAKKEN8-20221828779286582418933059309422117
BAKKEN7-2022358558517247280728

38499, CLR, Whitman, Oakdale -- Now Being Reported -- December 18, 2022

The monster CLR Whitman wells are tracked here.

The well:

  • 38499, 2,432, CLR, Whitman FIU 5-34H, Oakdale, minimal production; a monster well; t--; cum 150K 10/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2022315582055784595367142668967
BAKKEN9-202230594175938163246380963496313
BAKKEN8-20221833921337791024037868354452423
BAKKEN7-202239169161629122801228

38613, CLR, Whitman, Oakdale -- Now Being Reported -- December 18, 2022

The monster CLR Whitman wells are tracked here.

The well:

  • 38613: 2,070, CLR, permitted 10/13/21, CLR, Whitman  FIU 10-34H1, Oakdale, NWNW;; 34-147-96; 543 FNL and 301 FWL; t--; cum 129K 10/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20223153069530023626349703494595
BAKKEN9-2022304571545701263295252352265258
BAKKEN8-20221829360292372017535040327942246
BAKKEN7-2022357957916797820782

38495, CLR, Whitman, Oakdale -- Now Being Reported -- December 18, 2022

The monster CLR Whitman wells are tracked here.

The well:

  • 38495, drl/A, permitted 8/18/21, CLR, Whitman FIU 7-34H1, Oakdale, t--; cum 119K 10/22
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20223162740626671717280771805239
BAKKEN9-2022305607155903212096343663125311
BAKKEN8-20220000000
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-2022121211415173501735

An Old CLR Well With 55X Jump In Production -- December 18, 2022

Maybe we will hear the following from analysts this week:

  • there are no more Tier 1 locations in the Bakken;
  • the decline rate in the Bakken is atrocious;
  • once a well hits "peak production," it never "comes back as a good well";
  • no such thing as the "halo effect"
  • the Bakken is coming to an end;

The well:

  • 17061, 664, CLR, Whitman 11-34H, Oakdale, API - 33-025-00723; t6/08; cum 452K 8/18; see production profile below; FracFocus: no re-frack; 6/21; taken off line 9/21 when lots of activity in this area; remains off line 7/22; back on line 8/22; huge jump in production; cum 502K; cum 586K 10/22; recent production: 36,194 / 656 = 55x.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20223114261143141238018998187572
BAKKEN9-2022303619436217258343996639770196
BAKKEN8-20221831218310871770825267236651602
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-20220000000
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-20220000000
BAKKEN3-20220000000
BAKKEN2-20220000000
BAKKEN1-20220000000
BAKKEN12-20210000000
BAKKEN11-20210000000
BAKKEN10-20210000000
BAKKEN9-20211423655373872750
BAKKEN8-2021316565505212418220
BAKKEN7-2021265847562110346960

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- December 18, 2022

The wells:

  • 38954, conf, Ovintiv, Anderson Federal 152-96-9-4-5H, Westberg, no production data, 
  • 37640, conf, Slawson, Genesis Federal 1 SLH, Big Bend, no production data, 
  • 38201, conf, CLR, LCU Foster Federal 4-28H, Long Creek, no production data,
  • 38202, conf, CLR, LCU Foster Federal 3-28H1, Long Creek, no production data,
  • 38200, conf, Hess, EN-Rehak A-155-94-1423H-3, Manitou,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20221287815589
9-20221551421128
8-20221922236442
7-20223353249227
  • 37897, conf, BR, Ole 2-1-29MTFH, North Fork, no production data, 
  • 37891, conf, Enerplus, Cadmium 147-93-17B-20H, Moccasin Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20222030312973
9-20221212732
8-202245372733
7-202229301456
6-2022212131
  • 38484, conf, Hess, Go-Johnson-156-98-2635H-2, Wheelock,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20221600940181
9-20222623662645
8-20222148846883
7-20223287326601
6-20221488010378
  • 38203, conf, CLR, LCU Foster Federal 2-28H, Long Creek, no production data, 
  • 37890, conf, Enerplus, Bismuth 147-93-17B -20H, Moccasin Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20223143123195
9-20223926330000
8-20224361432829
7-20222646423075
6-202287105377
  • 37697, conf, BR, Ole 2-1-29MBH, North Fork, no production data, 
  • 38485, conf, Heess, GO-Johnson-156-98-2635H-3, Wheelock,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20221327025744
9-20221855840375
8-20221679034492
7-20223261032514
6-20221667713888
  • 38410, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 11-5TFH, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20221230711437
9-20221425614251
8-20221461115698
7-20221104910132
6-20221890
  • 37698, conf, BR, Ole 4-1-29MBH, North Fork, no production data, 
  • 38986, conf, CLR, Kiefel 3-36H, West Capa, no production data, 
  • 37892, conf, Enerplus, Brass 147-93-17B-20H, Moccasin Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20222336319504
9-20223132424697
8-20222433617928
7-20222539016831
6-2022109706772
  • 37699, conf, BR, Ole 5-1-29TFH, North Fork, no production data, 
  • 37893, conf, Enerplus, Tin 147-93-17B-20H, Moccasin Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20222284017273
9-20222668819542
8-20222990223471
7-20223499432237
6-2022102436323
  • 38985, conf, CLR, Kiefel 2-36HSL, West Capa, no production data, 
  • 37700, conf, BR, Ole 5-1-29TFH, North Fork, no production data, 
  • 39021, conf, Kraken, King LE 8-5-32 11H, Oliver, no production data, 
  • 39004, conf, Slawson, Cannonball Federal 3 SLH, Big Bend, no production data, 
  • 38935, conf, CLR, Roxy 9-31HSL1, West Capa, no production data, 
  • 39022, conf, Kraken, King 8-5-32 4H, Oliver,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20221767187
  • 39003, conf, Slawson, Lunker Federal 7-33-4TFH, Big Bend, no production data, 
  • 38936, conf, CLR, Roxy 8-31H, West Capa, no production data, 
  • 37895, conf, Enerplus, Gallium 147-93-17A-20H, Moccasin Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20221797615169
9-20221943017455
8-20222474216451
7-20223357726647
6-20221721710628
  • 37894, conf, Enerplus, Osmium 147-93-17B-20H, Moccasin Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20222736223655
9-20222412818657
8-20223349723414
7-20225688336022
6-20222328714375
  • 39023, conf, Kraken, King 8-5-32 3H, Oliver,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20221490152
  • 39002, conf, Slawson, Lunker Federal 6-33-4TFH, Big Bend, no production data, 
  • 38937, conf, CLR, Roxy 7-31H1, West Capa, no production data, 
  • 38862, conf, Sinclair, Hovden Federal 2-20H, Little Knife, no production data,

38494, CLR, Whitman, Oakdale -- Now Being Reported -- December 18, 2022

The monster CLR Whitman wells are tracked here.

The well:

  • 38494, drl/A, permitted 8/18/21, CLR, Whitman FIU 7-34H1, Oakdale, t--; cum 88K 10/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20223144649446082570140619403774
BAKKEN9-2022304335243222257174915548914241
BAKKEN8-20220000000
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-20222001307237702377

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- December 16, 2022

Wednesday, December 28, 2022: 72 for the month, 181 for the quarter, 726 for the year.
38954, conf, Ovintiv, Anderson Federal 152-96-9-4-5H,
37640, conf, Slawson, Genesis Federal 1 SLH,

Tuesday, December 27, 2022: 70 for the month, 179 for the quarter, 724 for the year.
None.

Monday, December 26, 2022: 70 for the month, 179 for the quarter, 724 for the year.
38201, conf, CLR, LCU Foster Federal 4-28H,

Sunday, December 25, 2022: 69 for the month, 178 for the quarter, 723 for the year.
38202, conf, CLR, LCU Foster Federal 3-28H1,
38200, conf, Hess, EN-Rehak A-155-94-1423H-3,
37897, conf, BR, Ole 2-1-29MTFH,
37891, conf, Enerplus, Cadmium 147-93-17B-20H,

Saturday, December 24, 2022: 65 for the month, 174 for the quarter, 719 for the year.
38484, conf, Hess, Go-Johnson-156-98-2635H-2,
38203, conf, CLR, LCU Foster Federal 2-28H,
37890, conf, Enerplus, Bismuth 147-93-17B -20H,
37697, conf, BR, Ole 2-1-29MBH,

Friday, December 23, 2022: 61 for the month, 170 for the quarter, 714 for the year.
38485, conf, Heess, GO-Johnson-156-98-2635H-3,
38410, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 11-5TFH,
37698, conf, BR, Ole 4-1-29MBH,

Thursday, December 22, 2022: 58 for the month, 167 for the quarter, 711 for the year.
38986, conf, CLR, Kiefel 3-36H,
37892, conf, Enerplus, Brass 147-93-17B-20H,
37699, conf, BR, Ole 5-1-29TFH

Wednesday, December 21, 2022: 55 for the month, 164 for the quarter, 708 for the year.
37893, conf, Enerplus, Tin 147-93-17B-20H,

Tuesday, December 20, 2022: 54 for the month, 163 for the quarter, 707 for the year.
38985, conf, CLR, Kiefel 2-36HSL,
37700, conf, BR, Ole 5-1-29TFH,

Monday, December19, 2022: 52 for the month, 161 for the quarter, 705 for the year.
39021, conf, Kraken, King LE 8-5-32 11H,
39004, conf, Slawson, Cannonball Federal 3 SLH,
38935, conf, CLR, Roxy 9-31HSL1,

Sunday, December 18, 2022: 49 for the month, 158 for the quarter, 702 for the year.
39022, conf, Kraken, King 8-5-32 4H,
39003, conf, Slawson, Lunker Federal 7-33-4TFH,
38936, conf, CLR, Roxy 8-31H,
37895, conf, Enerplus, Gallium 147-93-17A-20H,
37894, conf, Enerplus, Osmium 147-93-17B-20H,

Saturday, December 17, 2022: 44 for the month, 153 for the quarter, 697 for the year.
39023, conf, Kraken, King 8-5-32 3H,
39002, conf, Slawson, Lunker Federal 6-33-4TFH,
38937, conf, CLR, Roxy 7-31H1,
38862, conf, Sinclair, Hovden Federal 2-20H,