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Friday, November 18, 2022

Scotch Eggs And Whitby, Yorkshire, England -- For The Archives -- November 18, 2022

Of the thirty years and one day in the USAF, perhaps the most memorable was the time I spent in Yorkshire, England, between 2002 and 2004. 

But in all that time, I never came across Scotch eggs, and now, two days ago, I had my first Scotch eggs, in north Texas of all places. Wow. 

From wiki:

Scotch eggs: other claims include the name coming from a nickname used by Londoners who lived around Wellington Barracks after Officers of the Scots Guards stationed there, and who developed a taste for the snack.
According to Culinary Delights of Yorkshire, they originated in Whitby, Yorkshire, England, in the 19th century, and were originally covered in fish paste rather than sausage meat. 

Wellington Barracks

Wellington Barracks is a military barracks in Westminster, central London, for the Foot Guards battalions on public duties in that area. The building is located about three hundred yards from Buckingham Palace, allowing the guard to be able to reach the palace very quickly in an emergency, and lies between Birdcage Walk and Petty France. Three companies are based at the barracks, as well as all of the Foot Guards bands and the regimental headquarters.

Whitby, Yorkshire, England: wiki.

  • one Saturday, I hiked the English coast from Robin Hood's Bay to Whitby;
    • the Whitby Abbey
    • St Hilda
    • Easter
    • Dracula
    • jet: I got a "jet" cross for our daughter Laura; priceless; the memories;
  • Its attraction as a tourist destination is enhanced by the proximity of the high ground of the North York Moors national park and the heritage coastline and by association with the horror novel Dracula. Jet and alum were mined locally, and Whitby jet, which was mined by the Romans and Victorians, became fashionable during the 19th century.

Scotch eggs: link here.

  • along with the "right" Scotch, my Saturday brunch: Scotch eggs and Scotch
  • Thirsty Lion: pub with food
  • eleven of them across the US
    • only eleven
    • another one soon to come to north Ft Worth 
      • strictest confidence; don't tell anyone
  • one of the eleven "owns" Denver"
  • one of the other eleven: one minute -- by foot -- from my house.

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Culinary Delights of Yorkshire

Link here.

The site lists ten. 

Most of which I was familiar.

Favorite: Wensleydale cheese.

Although first produced in the 12th Century by Cistercian monks in the valley, it wasn’t until 1897 that the cheese was first produced on a large scale. It’s so loved in fact that it recently achieved Protected Geographical Indication (PDI), putting it in the same company as the Cornish Pasty and the Melton Mowbray Pork Pie.

But of this I did not know. Most interesting. My mom made the best rhubarb pie -- she grew her own plants.

Forced rhubarb:

Yorkshire is famous for the Rhubarb Triangle, a nine-square mile area between Wakefield, Morley and Rothwell which is renowned for producing early forced rhubarb.
West Yorkshire remains a very important area in rhubarb production and once accounted for 90 per cent of the world’s rhubarb production.
Marking the significance of the region every year is the Wakefield Festival of Food, Drink & Rhubarb.

Forced rhubarb? I'm glad you asked:

Rhubarb is usually known for its extremely sour flavor that’s best tempered with a generous amount of sugar and other fruits to produce sweet stalks. Want to learn how to grow rhubarb that doesn’t need sugar at all?
Forcing rhubarb is the growing technique that makes this happen, and it also gives growers an early crop.
What Is Forced Rhubarb?

Have you ever brought a plant bulb from a cold garage to grow it inside, like a daffodil or crocus? That technique is known as forcing. A dormant plant is exposed to cold or even frost, and then brought to an ideal climate to start growing.
With rhubarb, forcing goes one step further by also blocking all light from the plant in order to get rapid growth.

Why Should You Grow Rhubarb in the Dark?

Growing rhubarb in the dark, and we mean total darkness, accomplishes two things. First, the rhubarb stalks grow faster than usual as the plant searches for light to make chlorophyll. Second, the sweet glucose produced in the rhubarb that would normally be used to grow the plant’s huge leaves is instead stored in the stalks. This means that the stalks of forced rhubarb are sweeter instead of sour.

During forcing, the rhubarb plants will be on the alert for even the tiniest bit of sunlight so that it can begin its natural growing process. Even the beam from a flashlight would be enough to break the forcing! For this reason, rhubarb farmers have been known to pick forced rhubarb by candlelight so as not to disrupt the plants.

North Dakota-Owned Oil, Gas Mineral Rights Valued At $2.8B -- November 18, 2022

A lot packed in this article, if you read it closely.

A huge thanks to the reader who sent me the link.

Link here.

Archived.

BISMARCK, N.D. (AP) — An estimate of oil and gas mineral rights owned by North Dakota pegs their value at $2.8 billion, an 18% increase from last year, according to an appraisal released Thursday to the state Land Board.

The increase comes largely from strong oil and natural gas prices and sustained production over the past year, according to Watford City-based MineralTracker, part of First International Bank & Trust. Joel Brown, the company’s mineral service manager, said about 9,000 wells in which the state holds an interest were examined — or about half of those operating in the state.

In the fiscal year that ended in June, North Dakota received a record $464 million in royalties from state-owned minerals, including a high of $55 million in July, the report said.

Brown said the state’s mineral rights asset is estimated to bring in more than $10 billion in royalties over the next several decades.

Anticipating A Cold Weekend -- November 18, 2022

Scotch eggs: link here.

  • along with the "right" Scotch, my Saturday brunch
  • Thirsty Lion
  • eleven of them across the US
    • only eleven
    • another one soon to come to north Ft Worth 
      • strictest confidence; don't tell anyone
  • one of the eleven "owns" Denver"
  • one of the other eleven: one minute -- by foot -- from my house.

Houston: link here.

Reflections: 1969.

FRED: industrial production.

Apple:

  • after more than a decade of blogging, one thing I've noticed
    • a lot of folks have trouble reading graphs
  • hopefully you-all can read this one:

XOM - Guyana, link here:

  • this is simply incredible but I bet less than 1% of oil investors will read this
  • and even less will understand what this means -- on so many levels
  • I agree with the reader who wrote: I should have bought more Hess
  • to put this in perspective, the Bakken? about 100 miles x 100 miles = 10,000 square miles
  • to put this in perspective, the Bakken? about 50 billion bbls oil, conservative estimate




Gershwin:

The carnival is over: link here.

Storm: no name yet?

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) — West Michigan is in the midst of one of the more prolific November snowfall events on record, and the totals will continue to add up through the weekend.
As of early Friday morning, the National Weather Service had recorded 10.1 inches of snow in Grand Rapids. They say it makes this the 10th-snowiest two-day stretch in November in Grand Rapids history
With snow falling through the day, there’s a chance it could move higher up the list before midnight.
The Winter Storm Warning has been expanded & extended and the Winter Weather Advisory has been extended. Both now run until 7 a.m. Sunday. They were originally set to expire early Saturday. Much of West Michigan is now under a Winter Storm Warning.

Marie Kondo: has a new book out.

  • I read her first book. Life-changing.
  • I won't buy her most recent book: it won't bring me any joy. 

I put a spell on you: link here.

Oh, and more oil, link here:


Tinker tailor: link here.

Week 46: November 13, 2022 -- November 19, 2022

Top energy story:

  • oil fundamentals and WTI diverge 
  • Joe Biden signs off on huge US crude oil export terminal off Texas coast.
    • signs off on this just as COP27 (annual global warming conference comes to an end)

Top story:

  • Joe Biden is still president;
  • there are indications that Ukraine is interested in taking the war to Russia.

Top international non-energy story:

  • Crypto collapses

Top international energy story:


Top national non-energy story:

  • "Historic" winter storm hits upstate New York

Top national energy story:

  • Joe Biden signs off on huge US crude oil export terminal off Texas coast.
  • first of four major export facilities planned
  • first one with capacity to export two million bopd
Javier Blas:

Focus on fracking: most recent edition.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:


Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Entertainment:
  • in most anticipated NFL game of the week, Amazon's Prime Video scores big
    • Green Bay Packers lose badly to the Tennessee Titans

Six New Permits; Ten Permits Renewed -- November 18, 2022

Active rigs: 38.

WTI: $80.08.

Natural gas: $6.303.

Six new permits, #39421 - #39426, inclusive:

  • Operators: CLR (4); Murex (2)
  • Fields: Chimney Butte (Dunn); Sanish (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Murex has permits for two Lahti wells, NENW 15-154-92; to be sited 325 FNL and at 2400 FWL and 2430 FWL
    • CLR has permits for three Bice Federal wells and one Skacheno Federal well, SWSW 32-146-95; to be sited at 330 FSL and between 395 FWL and 515 FWL;

Ten permits renewed:

  • Hess (4): four GO-Knudson permits, Williams County
  • Grayson Mill (3): three Tufto permits, Williams County
  • Whiting (3): two Gullikson permits and one Klose permit, all in McKenzie County

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My View From The Fitness Center


Our monthly rent charges for this view, adding about 20% to the monthly rent, but it's worth it, and I would be willing to pay even more.

Houston -- November 18, 2022

Updates

November 20, 2022: is Houston the only "world-class" city in the US. Link here. 

Original Post 

I may post this monthly for the next twenty-four months. Link here for the archives.

A Father's Day Memo -- November 18, 2022

A reader sent me this link:

HOUSTON, Texas, and PORTLAND, Oregon, Nov. 11, 2022 /PRNewswire/ --
Today, Sysco Corporation (NYSE: SYY), the leading global foodservice distribution company, received its first series-produced battery electric Freightliner eCascadia.
With one of the largest private fleets in the United States, Sysco is leading the future of sustainability for foodservice distribution.
Sysco's first zero-emission Class 8 truck was presented to Marie Robinson, Sysco's EVP and chief supply chain officer at the Daimler Truck North America (DTNA) Manufacturing Plant in Portland, Oregon
The company's first Freightliner eCascadia is expected to operate in Sysco's Riverside, California site, which will receive additional eCascadias in the coming months.

It brought back memories.

My dad visited grocery stores every day of his life after he turned 70 years of age, mostly to buy lottery tickets and have lunch at the deli.
Everyday he saw the SYSCO trucks delivering food and he was impressed.
That's how his kids (me included) inherited so much CISCO from his portfolio account.

By the way, he also bought a lot of Apple, Inc., at the time, thinking it was a fruit company. 

True stories.  My dad: perhaps one of the best investors ever.

The eCascadia.

SYSCO, Riverside, CA:

Weekly Influenza Update -- CDC -- Have We Already Peaked? November 18, 2022

Posted moments ago

The charts suggest we may have already peaked. And look at long-term care facilities, where, I assume, the management has a tougher policy than China's net-zero policy. Vaccines may be less than 45% effective, but at least they are effective.

We'll go through the rest of the graphs together.

Except for New York state (and I bet the numbers reflect NYC, not New York state), the "northern tier" is doing just fine.

Compare the chart below to last week:



All four charts show the same thing:




This remains the most interesting chart:

All That Recession Tallk? Whistling Past The Graveyard? -- November 7, 2022

Yahoo!Finance morning brief.

So I'm sitting on Yahoo Finance Live on jobs report Friday, almost in a state of disbelief. Non-farm payrolls rose by an impressive 261,000. That didn’t strike me as a recessionary print. Then an economist sitting next to me says he sees a recession in 2023 and a 2% rise in the unemployment rate.

Under Armour’s third quarter sucked last week, and so did the company’s forward guidance. And yet the stock was embraced by the market. Crocs had a solid quarter, but inventory ballooned. Red flag, says my former analyst self. The Street welcomed the quarter anyway. Etsy had a squishy quarter, and the market took it in stride. Same goes EBay. ‌

Then Starbucks reported an 11% same-store sales increase despite ever-inflating prices for its various coffees. Where is the recession there? ‌

"What we focus on is really: How do we sustain that ticket?" Starbucks CFO Rachel Ruggeri told me and Yahoo Finance's Brooke DiPalma in an interview. "Because it isn't just pricing, it's actually volume as well, we've seen our customers purchase more... so we're seeing increased volume." ‌

And Mastercard’s CEO Michel Miebach tells me there is nothing in his business that suggests recession is imminent. ‌

"Currently, based on the data that we have, there is no such indication [of a recession]," Miebach said. "The consumer is resilient, and that resilience will last. We have no indication that there is a near-term recession."

Prime Rate -- November 18, 2022

Link sent to me by a reader

Forbes

November 2, 2022.

JPM numbers here.

Remember 1980? 


So far, no one is talking these numbers.

Dow



94% increase. Almost doubled. But look what happened after 1987. Fast forward to 2020. Note the "squeezing"of the y-axis in the 100-year graph above.


Again
, a reminder: Schwab's historical data suggests "we" have 550+ days of "cheap" stocks, starting from March, 2022. US investors are going to do just great. Bottom line: have a plan and stick to your plan.

Inflation? November 18, 2022

I'll start taking the inflation-concern stories seriously when they include prices for Taylor Swift concerts.

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Houston

Link here.

Amazon's TNF Last Night -- Incredibly Great Game -- November 18, 2022

Are the Dallas Cowboys the only team that hasn't beaten The Green Bay Packers.

Green Bay Packers last night:
their defensive unit was not particularly good; but,
their loss all due to Aaron Rodgers.
The Titans dissed the GBP early in the game when they went for "4th-and-1" deep in the red zone instead of a sure-thing, the 3-point field goal. 

The Titans did not convert the "4t-and-1"; gave up an easy three points; tells me all I needed to know how much the Titans feared the Packers.

Amazon's TNF? Brilliant.

Another note: the storm is going to be so big this weekend, they've moved the up-state game from New York to Detroit. 

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Inflation?

Shop Belk.

Routinely 40% off almost everything. Upscale only. 

Earlier this week, 60% off. Including Spode.

Now, starting today: Black Friday and up to 80% off. We'll buy stuff we don't even need.

By the way, these suitcases (or knock-offs) can be had for $39.99 at Walmart vs $49.99 at Belk, but I bet Belk's prices come way down this weekend.