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Tuesday, November 8, 2022

Disney In Huge Trouble -- Even The CEO Knows It -- Is A Turnaround Possible? November 8, 2022

This is not an investment. No recommendations. Usual disclaimers apply.

Without question, it's a stock picker's market. Huge.

Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.

Disney: in huge trouble.

Even the CEO knows it.

It's no longer content. It's "different" content.

Tim Cook figured that out years ago.


By the numbers:

  • Yahoo!Finance, link here:
    • missed on both top and bottom line;
    • higher-than-expected streaming costs (were these costs anticipated?)
    • revenue: $20.15 billion vs $21.26 billion expected
    • EPS: wow --- 30 cents vs 51 cents expected
    • Disney+ subscriber net additions: 12.1 million vs 9.35 million expected
    • huge beat; how how could they miss EPS forecasts so badly? costs? same problem as META? Apple?
  • but look at this:
    • the company warned that it expects core Disney+ subscriber growth, along with Hotstart subscriber numbers, to be lower in the first quarter. Oh, oh. Despite all the heavy advertising for new subscribers we're going to see over the holidays? 
  • parks, experience, consumer products: 7.43 billion vs $7.59 billion expected
  • Disneyland Hotel: $700 / night for two adults, no children; no rooms available through end of December, 2022, booking through Disney; third party "hotels" can't do better;


 Not a great day on Wall Street ... on a day the market surged (again):

Apparently "huge costs." Does it make sense to "own" all of Disney+ and two-thirds of Hulu? One or the other, and Hulu isn't going anywhere.

 Competing with itself? Is Disney competing with Hulu for subcribers?

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Buffett Can't Be Happy -- Except For The Return To Shareholders


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The Book Page

Just ordered; will arrive tomorrow, from Amazon:

But this is the one I'm struggling over -- trying to decide whether to get it: I don't care for this genre -- business biographies ... but Jack Welch was such a phenomenon. Seven-hundred pages. Based on the review / essay in The New Yorker, Jack Welch was ruthless, but after his heart attack he was a changed man, though he did not admit it, or could not / would not admit it. 

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Winter Is Coming; Into The Fourth Quarter Capex; Active Rigs Down To 39 -- November 8, 2022

Recession? Not in north Texas:

  • had to run a few errands this afternoon; parking lots at malls, big-box stores, completely full;
    • Costco: sold out of new Apple iPads
    • Apple Store: limited supply of new iPads; older versions completely sold out
  • Target parking lots full
  • long drive-through lines at Starbucks

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Back to the Bakken

No DUCs: I just updated the wells that came off the confidential list during the month of July, 2022, the first month of the last (3rd) quarter; except for a small handful, all wells were completed; a handful of DUCs. Link here.

Active rigs: 39.

WTI: $88.91; down 3%; down $2.88 after API reports big build;

Natural gas: $6.138

Five new permits, #39391 - #39395, inclusive:

  • Operator: Crescent Point Energy
  • Field: Church (Williams) (3); Winner (Williams ) (2);
  • Comments (the five wells will all be on one pad):
    • Crescent Point Energy has permits for three Matilda May wells, SWSE 20-158-100; 
      • to be sited 350 FSL and between 1850 FEL and 1950 FEL; and,
    • Crescent Point Energy has permitsfor two Ruby wells, SWSE 20-158-100; 
      • to be sided 350 FSL and between 1875 FEL and 1925 FEL; 

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

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Initial Production For Wells Coming Off Confidential List July, 2022

Status of wells needs to be updated in most cases, but IPs are accurate as of Tuesday, November 8, 2022, as reported to NDIC. 

The "families" of many of these wells are tracked elsewhere. See sidebar at the right.

The wells:

38168, conf-->loc/drl, CLR, LCU Foster FIU 5-28H1,

37009, conf-->loc/drl, CLR, LCU Reckitt Federal 3-22H1, Long Creek,

38610, conf, CLR, Bang FIU 14-4HSL, Cedar Coulee,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20223054048538042298555440541191321
BAKKEN8-2022354354319568860886

38677, conf, CLR, Bang 4-4H, Cedar Coulee,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2022435403499498718231617206
BAKKEN8-202224646178198098

38614, conf, CLR, Bang 13-4H1, Cedar Coulee,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20222530213298662219416307144631844
BAKKEN8-202226216219824730473

38676, conf, CLR, Bang 5-4H1, Cedar Coulee,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2022637443701941022151963252
BAKKEN8-2022452752740012540254

37496, conf, Petro-Hunt, State 159-94-25A-36-2H, East Tioga,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-202230941195893503512485122760
BAKKEN8-2022311139011347432421423613766254
BAKKEN7-202231959595164815911338100871035
BAKKEN6-20222146254085414545450527433
BAKKEN5-20220000000

37497, conf, Petro-Hunt, State 159-94-25A-36-3H, East Tioga,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-202230792381702878711619114100
BAKKEN8-2022319757936538353124331213681
BAKKEN7-202231833683125721099918851924
BAKKEN6-2022172367201335420287427563
BAKKEN5-20220000000

38675, conf,  CLR, Bang 6-4H, Cedar Coulee,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20221213134129831495570806279801
BAKKEN8-2022351651610125080508

37498, conf, Petro-Hunt, State 159-94-25A-36-1HS, East Tioga,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2022309787988129950982896181
BAKKEN8-2022311193911977405541528314425642
BAKKEN7-202231982296795913311866105471103
BAKKEN6-20221423351808262642665255414
BAKKEN5-20220000000

32113, conf --> loc/drl, Slawson, Armada Federal 1 SLH,

38665, conf/drl, Slawson, Armada Federal 8-14-13H,

32112, conf --> loc/drl, Slawson, Armada Federal 9-14-13TFH,

38674, conf, CLR, Bang 7-4H1, Cedar Coulee,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20221315888157101346274176585832
BAKKEN8-202210012264330433

32111, conf--> loc/drl, Slawson, Armada Federal 4-14-13TFH,

26368, conf --> loc/drl, Slawson, Armada Federal 2-14-13H, Big Bend,

38673, conf, CLR, Bang 8-4H, Cedar Coulee,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-202214167941660511160994786001347

37146, conf, Hess, BL-Olson-155-96-0310H-2, Beaver Lodge,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2022304371436810696311693114821
BAKKEN8-20223149444976110213016829958210
BAKKEN7-2022314708465013575423044221589
BAKKEN6-2022307389740514643377141747620238
BAKKEN5-2022301251312501167225159451418176
BAKKEN4-20222386588699124762888828522366
BAKKEN3-2022312531425289305391034459328910156
BAKKEN2-2022261951419472294204090340251652
BAKKEN1-202215151951510191121572515010715

38696, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Harstad 9-1TFH-155-91, Stanley,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-202230136661351132464497348440
BAKKEN8-2022314125370780007267000

38695, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Behr 16-21 2H-LL-155-91, Stanley,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-202230162721654221833332332250
BAKKEN8-202231124951200319162139013150

38176, conf, Hess, AN-Norby-LE-152-94-0409H-1, Antelope-Sanish,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH9-20223014833150006242351833485039
SANISH8-20222915409154176316346833436038
SANISH7-20223119816196021132745854455378
SANISH6-2022302231922397942441105377193117
SANISH5-2022281772917698823627423243402837
SANISH4-202222190931882362002930028837258
SANISH3-2022312917429514102534175341065378
SANISH2-2022282734727339950538379327685335
SANISH1-20222338086377121417830738230417478

37145, conf, Hess, BL-Olson-155-96-0310H-3, Beaver Lodge,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2022304021403910267356783565424
BAKKEN8-20223152725279104333506934825244
BAKKEN7-2022304292426413104391513906982
BAKKEN6-2022308267827115227428731986723006
BAKKEN5-2022301272512736188517099570752243
BAKKEN4-2022231048710481148703821237727485
BAKKEN3-20223121972219982195362073559796094
BAKKEN2-2022242358223594368504546644741725
BAKKEN1-20222328508283313615253913514602453

38694, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Behr 16-21 1TFH-LL-155-91, Stanley,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-202230160711599149171532151780
BAKKEN8-2022317293696126416202719830

38631, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Jon R 16-22-3TFH, Stanley,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20223016479161774251460855510243
BAKKEN8-202231158181542344921337030340

38244, conf, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-3H, Siverston,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2022305007249955719981389161318086288
BAKKEN8-2022812634124952780624480218612389

38245, conf, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-4H, Siverston,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2022305865558504602621317211257235998
BAKKEN8-20221013579134302742419488174031902

38246, conf, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-14H, Siverston,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2022304634046272539501155641103025262
BAKKEN8-2022815385152161925029157260382845

38632, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Jon R 16-21 2TFH, Stanley,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20223019644195054688443473625557
BAKKEN8-202231159831563339734610442761732

38247, conf, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-5H, Siverston,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2022305010350014461101152991094005219
BAKKEN8-2022815201150341760626615237682597

38177, conf, Hess, AN-Norby-LE-152-94-0409H-10, Antelope-Sanish,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH9-20223013510135276569293262924640
SANISH8-202231154291543374233376133114605
SANISH7-202231177571773682813969639450202
SANISH6-202230209932098391994420443824333
SANISH5-202229199721998382452694226384524
SANISH4-20222621893219318198337713366859
SANISH3-20223135581355481415156129546531407
SANISH2-20222825177251481028835956345181390
SANISH1-202230276712758912670311751960611535

38248, conf, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-15H, Siverston,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20223040188401154855193970896914279
BAKKEN8-2022812157120241716220609184052011

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