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Tuesday, October 25, 2022

Social Media -- With Or Without Links -- October 25, 2022

Miners ("bitcoin"): in a world of hurt. Bloodbath.

From Dan Pickering 

Eyecatching: Energy results looking better and better as we watch GOOG and MSFT get kicked in the teeth after hours; did you catch the price action in energy transition stocks today? - at least a dozen names up 10%+..that vol makes energy look tame. Day traders dream. 

Tech is gonna take a bath tomorrow.

World is in its first truly global energy crisis: IEA's Birol.

Nabors dayrate: revenue per day now signed for $40,000. Huge.

China Covid: game over. Only Wuhan coming up with Ebovid can save this now. -- ZeroHedge.

Jay Powell: will be forced to pause. He can't be Truss'd but he's not going to be invited to many holiday parties in December / New Year's if things don't turn around quickly.

AAPL: killing META.  

Both GOOG and MSFT down exactly 6.7% in after-hours.

Saudi: "Losing emergency stock may become painful in the months to comoe." Is anyone listening? I am.

Recession? UPS: "hold my beer":

  • UPS:
    • revenue grew by 8.2%, driven by 9.8% increase in revenue per piece;
    • operating margin was 10.8%; adjusted was 11.05
    • AAPL: generally comes in at 24% margin

Recession? Visa -- "hold my beer"

  • just brought in $5.6 billion in free cash flow on $7.8 billion in revenue
  • that's a 725 FCF margin
  • raised quarterly dividend

Visa: raises its dividend 20%. Does this happen in a recession?

Elon Musk: will close on Twitter on Friday. Entire work-force will resign.

US housing market has imploded. But does it matter. Home buying / selling season is over; begins again next spring.

I Guess Apple, Inc. Said "Enough Was Enough!" LOL -- October 25, 2022

Link here.

Was Tim Cook upset about something? If so, it must have "passed."

Financial Tips -- Why I Love Blogging -- October 25, 2022

Link here.

 
 
I won't come close to matching Jack Raines' "record," but I plan to get a Covid job every time Medicare says I'm eligible. I'm going to see how much money I can get Medicare to pay Pfizer. I also need a few other "covered" vaccines (e.g., shingles, seasonal flu, pneumovax, dengue). LOL. 

Ouch -- October 25, 2022

Link here. How does this happen? AAPL next? And, here:



The ruin of many a poor boy, and God, I know I'm one. Is this one of the greatest videos ever? Watch closely. Watch it frame by frame.

This Is So F***ing Cool -- Give Me More Of This -- October 25, 2022

This must drive him nuts. Perhaps time for Valero to exit California if the governor doesn't appreciate them.

Link here.

Fact check

This past quarter, I've been accumulating shares in refiners. Waiting for MPC earnings. To report next week. Wall Street looks for a beat. Is this another open-book test?

Sympathy for the devil. Turn volume, "high."

A Musical Interlude -- October 25, 2022

Play loud:


Psycho Killer, play even louder:


Great memories of a CIA agent from years ago. 

Jann Wenner put me in this mood. 

Tomorrow, I travel.

Blogging will continue. May be delayed.

Incredible


And play even louder.

Golden Earing:

What became Golden Earring was formed in 1961 in The Hague by 13-year-old George Kooymans and his 15-year-old neighbor, Rinus Gerritsen
Originally called "the Tornados", the name was changed to the Golden Earrings when they discovered that the name the Tornados was already in use by another group. 
The name "the Golden Earrings" was taken from an instrumental called "Golden Earrings" performed by the British group the Hunters, for whom they served as opening and closing act. 
Initially a pop-rock band with Frans Krassenburg on lead vocals and Jaap Eggermont on drums, the Golden Earrings had a hit with their debut single "Please Go," recorded in 1965.[ 
Dissatisfied with Dutch recording studios, the band's manager and co-discoverer Fred Haayen arranged for the next single to be recorded at the Pye Records studios in London. The record cut at Pye, "That Day", reached number two on the Dutch charts. The definite article was dropped from the name in 1967, and the plural "s" was dropped in 1969.

1969: the best year ever for music. Period. Dot. 

Come Away With Me -- October 25, 2022

What do Florida, Alabama, Texas, and California have in common? One can enjoy being barefoot in October.

AEP raises its dividend from 78 cent st 83 cents.

Visa raises its dividend from 37.5 cents to 45 cents. Wow.

From Jann, p. 122:

Hendrix was the first star of the new rock era to die from drugs, at twenty-seven years old. Janis Joplin, also twenty-seven, died two weeks after Jim. Brian Jones had mysteriously drowned in his swimming pool outside London a year earlier. He too was twenty-seven. Soon enough Jim Morrison would also flame out at twenty-seven. Ron "Pigpen"McKiernan, the blues voice of the Grateful Dead, would shortly die at twenty-seven. Robert Johnson himself died at twenty-seven. Maybe it had to do with the deal with the devil when they were at the crossroads.

Brian Jones

Lewis Brian Hopkin Jones (28 February 1942 – 3 July 1969) was an English multi-instrumentalist and singer best known as the founder, rhythm/lead guitarist, and original leader of the [English band] Rolling Stones
Initially a guitarist, he went on to provide backing vocals and played a wide variety of instruments on Rolling Stones recordings and in concerts.

On my mind: come away with me, Nora Jones.

******************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 43. Of the active rigs, of interest, the following operators:

  • Ragnar Exploration, Galta 1-22H (#39184);
    • 39184, conf, Ragnar Exploration, Galt 1-22H, Fryburg, NENE 28-139-100;
  • Empire North Dakota (2), Waddle-Olson 1 (#3550) and Romsos 1-21 (#8029);
    • 3550, 140, Empire North Dakota, Waddle-Olson 1, Madison formation, t6/64; cum 181K 8/22; field: Starbuck, NESW 29-161-78;
    • 8029, 21, Empire North Dakota, Romsos 1-21, Madison formation, t5/81; cum 46K 8/22; field: Starbuck, SWNW 21-161-78;

WTI: $85.10.

Natural gas: $5.745.

API surprises: crude oil build; gasoline draw.

No new permits:

Nine permits renewed:

  • Foundation Energy (5): three Trotter Federal and two Trotter State permits in McKenzie County;
  • CLR (4): four Putnam permits, Williams County.

The Book Page -- October 25, 2022

Wow, link here. I've read the books she mentioned. 

Arrived today.

Also arrived today

Summer reading program.

Autumn reading program.

************************
One Word: McDonald's

Link here.

Shuttered Refineries Won't Re-Open -- Valero -- October 25, 2022

Connect the dots -- refineries produce diesel from Canadian heavy oil --> Keystone pipeline transports heavy oil to US refiners --> Keystone XL killed on Biden's first day in office --> refineries shuttered --> won't re-open --> US SecEnergy, "say what?"

Link here.

********************
Photo By Sophia

My Favorite Chart -- October 25, 2022

Anecdote: my mother and father amassed a small estate -- starting out in life in the 1920s with "nothing." That small estate -- and by many standards -- was very small -- was enough to provide a living income for each of their five surviving children.

They did not die of Covid: my father died before 2020 and my mother died in 2020, but not of Covid, though many of her generation did.

Their estate was passed on to their heirs in the "usual" turn of events, but my father was 96 years of age and my mother was 94 years of age. The estate, besides being passed on "late in life," was greatly impacted by decades of non-earning income years and extraordinary living expenses (two different nursing homes; assisted living expenses). 

With the estate, five highly educated, highly trained workers, at the peak of their earning years were able to retire. And, to varying degrees, they did.

On the other hand, there may have been a million US Americans with small to huge estates that died "unexpectedly" and "prematurely" due to Covid-19 starting in late 2019 and through "today."

For all those dying "prematurely," those estates, small to large were passed on to their heirs (much?) sooner than expected.

In addition, unlike deaths from cancer, Alzheimer's heart disease, Covid-19 deaths were rapid, and all medical expenses paid by insurers and/or the US government. There was no extraordinary nursing care, no assisted living, etc., expenses. 

So, not only did medical expenses NOT impact these estates, but the quick deaths pre-empted huge assisted living expenses that could have dragged on for years and would not have been covered -- for the most part -- by insurers or the US government.

Covid-19 deaths, excess:

Demographics:


Greatest generational wealth transfer: FA -- October 17, 2022 -- I do believe the writer of this article missed the biggest story line. 

Excess deaths during Covid-19 pandemic, CDC, link here.

Covid-deaths, US, by age group: link to Scientific American.

Now, see if you can connect the dots:

LABOR

Understanding America's labor shortage: link here.

Most analysts track U-3. Not me. U-1. Link here. If one actually looks at the definitions of the various categories, one will understand why I prefer U-1.

INFLATION

 

INVESTING 

Question: if you were 45 years old and your parents passed away "unexpectedly" and "prematurely" leaving you with a huge inheritance, with 50% in equities and bonds, and 50% tied up in a million-dollar house, and you had not planned for their death in 2020, and, worse, you had no experience with investing, what might you do?

MY FAVORITE CHART:

Link here.

 Time for Peter Zeihan to write another book.

*****************************
NEXT: SUPPLY CHAIN SHORTAGES

Can anyone explain why supply chain shortages persist. It's been two years now -- certainly the free market capitalistic economies should have "solved" the supply chain shortages by now, but they have not.

I have seen no explanation for this "paradox."

Start here, but this where I'm going go quit for now.

There is one more data point I have not included and that explains the supply chain shortages.

Daily Activity Report -- Monday, October 24, 2022

No new permits.

One permit canceled:

  • 36861, PNC, Enerplus, Iroon 148-93-32CH-TF,

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 30262, 3,179, Hess, EN-Madisyn-L3-154-9400705H-4, Alkali Creek, t--; cum 88K 8/22; see also #19339;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-202227149741499212988342653421550
BAKKEN7-20223125102251172225650664506568
BAKKEN6-202230361793614533100630193933423685
BAKKEN5-202251155011487817227189193567833
  • 34304, 3,219, XTO, Rough Federal 44X-23X, North Fork, no production data,

Brittney Griner -- Remember Her? Russian Court Denies Her Appeal Of Nine-Year Sentence -- October 25, 2022

Either this is not "high priority" for White House, or White House has no clout with the Kremlin.

For Investors Only -- October 24, 2022

Abbreviated disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Synthetic monopolies: link here.

  • fourteen sectors / categories --
    • AAPL in three of them; should be part of a fourth (cloud-base layer)
    • possibly a fifth: payments, along with V, MA
    • and, definitely in a sixth sector / category: semiconductors
  • UNP -- this one is most obvious; has been that way for decades
  • semiconductors: if there are numerous "monopolies" within this group, can they be monopolies -- ask INTC

Open-book test, link here:

  • ignore the politics
  • look at the PFE, MRNA headlines

US fuel demand has surpassed 2019 levels -- Valero -- link here.

Oil -- Bloomberg Opinion

The biggest impediment to energy stocks these past few years has been contempt. Investors hated the sector’s talent for burning cash, feared its ever-darkening climate outlook and wearied of the queasy ups-and-downs of oil itself. Analysts at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. captured all that, perhaps unintentionally, in an update this week: “It seems to be getting more difficult for the generalist community to ignore the sector at large.”

Becoming seemingly less ignorable might not look like a ringing endorsement. But this is a sector that, despite producing the world’s most indispensable commodity, dropped to less than 2% of the S&P 500 two years ago. That was amid the pandemic, granted, but Covid-19 merely delivered the coup de grace after years of decline. So money managers feeling the need for energy exposure again is a big deal.

Since March 2020, oil prices have roughly quadrupled, pulling energy equities up with them. Yet, despite the sector having trounced the broader market this year, its average valuation multiples are roughly where they were back at the start of the pandemic, at about 4.5 to 5.5 times forward Ebitda. The cash flows are much bigger; energy’s weighting is back above 5%. But the level of trust and interest, as expressed by those multiples, remains muted. Changing that, and expanding those valuations, could add another leg to the rally.

There are similarities to the setup in the early 2000s, says Ben Dell of Kimmeridge Energy Management Co., with the sector coming off years of underinvestment and with supply tight. As back then, rising interest rates spur fears of recession but that may curb demand growth rather than cut it outright.

The big difference is the energy transition, with clean technologies transformed and structural changes like US climate legislation squeezing the terminal valuations embedded in energy stocks. Yet the years needed to turn over chunks of the energy system, such as vehicle fleets, and the immediate exigencies of energy security may portend another near-term upcycle. 
Strong results from oilfield services bellwether Schlumberger Ltd. fit this view. At the least, as energy inflation corrodes the rest of their portfolio, many investors may feel compelled to buy back into the sector they love to hate. 
                                                                                 -- Liam Denning, Bloomberg Opinion

Tesla permabulls in full panic mode: link here.

  • robotaxis rolling off the GM production line; flooding San Francisco streets

Dividends, more of the same, nothing new, gets tedious, link here:

  • notes:
    • list needs to include TYS, DE, and AAPL - per reader;
    • NextEra Energy just announced increase in quarrterly dividend.

How Fast Things Change -- The Big Story Today -- Natural Gas -- October 25, 2022

Posted earlier:

Natural gas: $5.158. Some Permian natural gas is trending toward $0

  • European situation reversed
  • no place to store more natural gas
  • stream of LNG tankers continues
  • European storage sites 90+% full
  • European autumn significantly warmer than usual

*************************
Updates

Texas natural gas prices sink close to zero -- link here

"Natural gas drops toward zero as output swamps pipelines, Permian" -- Bloomberg

When WaHa goes negative, the flares shine -- link here.

  • by the way, a fake interpretation of the satellite photo
  • much of that is simply electric lighting; we saw the same false narrative in the Bakken ten years ago
  • but that doesn't change the story: natural gas swamps pipelines.

RBN Energy: from October 13, 2022 -- just two weeks ago -- can't build them fast enough.

When it comes to Texas gas supply and Gulf Coast LNG, we’d note that with rapid growth in export terminals from Louisiana to South Texas, the Texas terminals are especially well-located. Why? Because ample and rapidly growing Permian supplies are resulting in a number of very large new pipelines and pipeline expansions from the Permian to the coast that are intrastate — fully within Texas. That means they do not face the delays and multi-layer opposition that interstate pipelines from the north do. Meanwhile, the efforts to impose various critical-facilities and reliability standards on the natural gas industry in Texas remain to be evaluated.

European Natural Gas Situation Improves -- October 25, 2022

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 43.

WTI:$83.21.

Natural gas: $5.158. Some Permian natural gas is trending toward $0

  • European situation reversed
  • no place to store more natural gas
  • stream of LNG tankers continues
  • European storage sites 90+% full
  • European autumn significantly warmer than usual

Friday, October 28, 2022: 31 for the month, 31 for the quarter, 476 for the year.
None.

Thursday, October 27, 2022: 31 for the month, 31 for the quarter, 476 for the year.
None.

Wednesday, October 26, 2022: 31 for the month, 31 for the quarter, 476 for the year.
38783, conf, CLR, Bonneville 8-23H,

Tuesday, October 25, 2022: 30 for the month, 30 for the quarter, 475 for the year.
 None.

RBN Energy: Alberta advances multiple carbon storage sites, part 3.  

Capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from industrial and oil and gas activities is already a big challenge but having a safe, permanent place to store them is vital if the goal is to meet or exceed emission-reduction targets. To this end, Alberta, home to most of Canada’s oil and gas industry, including the vast oil sands, is steadily advancing plans to develop carbon sequestration hubs and underground reservoirs across the province in parallel with above-ground CO2 capture plants and pipelines. In separate announcements this year, the province gave the go ahead to 25 projects to develop sequestration hubs and determine if they can achieve commercial viability. In today’s blog, we consider Alberta’s latest efforts to push forward with its emissions capture and storage plans.