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Monday, October 17, 2022

Sophia Earns Her First Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu White Belt Stripe -- October 17, 2022

Of her four after-school activities -- swimming, ballet, gymnastics, and jiu-jitsu, Sophia says she likes the latter the best -- absolutely loves the sport.

Less than one month of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and Sophia has earned her first stripe -- among the fastest to earn her first stripe.


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Turtles and Salmonella

From petplace.com:

Thousands of households across America keep turtles as pets, yet only 200 cases of turtle related illness were reported in a two-year span, so obviously someone is doing something right. 
Protecting yourself from salmonella starts with adopting or purchasing the right turtle off the bat. You should never adopt a turtle that is less than four inches in length; a standard playing card is 3 ½ inches long, so as long as your turtle is bigger than a playing card you should be good. 
More so, federal law bans the sale of small turtles, so if you come across a tiny turtle for sale, it’s being sold illegally.

Huge Correction -- Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford To Set "Recent" Production Records In November -- Doesn't Get Me Excited -- October 17, 2022

Updates

Later, 12:50 a.m. CT, October 18, 2022: the data below, said to have come from the EIA, was so incredibly wrong, it's been bothering me all night. It was so bad, I took a screenshot of the article so folks would know it was not my error. 

The EIA apparently stated "total U.S. crude oil output is expected to increase by 104K bbl/day to more than 9.1M bbl/day in November, its highest since March 2020.

That can't possibly be correct. US crude oil production is well over 11 million bopd.

Here's the screen shot:
 

First, here's actual US oil production. Data is current through July, 2022. In July, 2022, total US crude oil production was 11,800,000 bopd (11.8 million bopd).

So, what's the deal? Here's the deal:

9.1 million bopd iis not total US oil production. That's onshore production only from seven major regions in the lower 48 states. Total US oil production is now 11.8 million bopd, still down from the peak of 13 million set in November, 2019.

Wow, talk about frustrating when "someone" (SeekingAlpha or the EIA) can't even get basic data ccrrect. In this case, it was SeekingAlpha. The EIA report would have spelled this out correctly. 

Original Post 

From SeekingAlpha today:

  • oil production in the Permian Basin is forecast to rise by ~50K bbl/day to a record 5.45M bbl/day in November, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Monday in its latest productivity report. 
  • total U.S. crude oil output is expected to increase by 104K bbl/day to more than 9.1M bbl/day in November, its highest since March 2020, the EIA report said. 
  • the EIA also sees oil output in the Bakken shale rising by 22K bbl/day to 1.19M bbl/day next month, the most since December 2020, and 
  • in the Eagle Ford shale adding 18K bbl/day to 1.22M bbl/day, its highest since April 2020. 
  • with oil "on the verge of exploding higher," Chevron (CVX) and Devon Energy (DVN) are two "top-tier picks," Leo Nelissen writes in an analysis published recently on Seeking Alpha.

"Exploding higher": I believe the analyst is talking about the price of oil "exploding higher," not that production would surge. 

Let's do the percentage change:

  • 104K bbl/day to more than 9.1M bbl/day in November:
  • 104,000 / 9,000,000 = 104 / 9,000 = 1% -- doesn't get me excited
  • 22,000 / 1,000,000 = 22 / 1,000 = 2% -- doesn't get me excited
  • that 104,000 bopd -- compare that to the Biden administration releasing 10x that amount the past six months, one million bopd released
  • the good news: I thought there were recent reports that Permian production had peaked

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs : 43.

No new permits.

Three permits renewed:

  • Whiting (2); two Klose Federal permits, McKenzie County;
  • Sinclair: a Bighorn permit in Dunn County

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 37367, 558, Petro-Hunt, Jorgenson 158-94-2B-11-3H,

Covid-19 -- An Update -- October 17, 2022

Wuhan flu. The blog Coronavirus: statistics    Seasonal flu: CDC.

A reminder: I continue to track / follow Covid-19 but a little bit differently. See this note.

When Covid-19 "first broke," I tried to follow the science, but it was not possible, and I made the mistake of getting too involved with the politics, emotions, personalities, conspiracy theories.

Now that books are starting to appear on the subject, I am now following Covid-19 for two reasons, or from two different aspects.

First, I'm back to following the science, and it's absolutely incredibly interesting.

Second, I'm looking at Covid-19 from an investor's point of view. 

Three books:

Where we stand on Covid-19, not ready for prime time; rambling, disjointed thoughts:

  • research on the coronaviruses is going to open a whole new field in medicine;
    • we're going to start seeing a lot more vaccine research, and a lot more anti-viral therapy research;
  • coronaviruses are really, really bad viruses, not because of the diseases they actually cause (bad colds and pneumonia), but how they could impact the severity of other viruses, or lead to new pandemics
    • but, I think medical research is now "ahead" of what coronaviruses can do and we will learn to live with them just as we've learned to live with other viruses
  • engineered, laboratory gain-of-function? Absolutely not; a natural source
  • medical researchers understand the science, always have; gradually that will trickle down to eighth-grade biology
  • flu season, 2022 - 2023, will be of interest, but the flu season of 2023 - 2024 will be much more interesting
  • Chinese handling of Covid-19 pandemic after August, 2022? Can't comment. I have never been to China, I certainly don't understand their challenges.

Biden, China, And Semiconductors -- October 17, 2022

Updates

December 14, 2022: below, Peter Zeihan asks a rhetorical question, what are Beijing's options? His answer. Not many. In fact, there is one. A soft takeover of Taiwan.

Original Post

Chips, semiconductor: link here.

In the short term, what the Biden administration is doing "to" the semiconductor sector with regard to China is going to be very painful, very expensive for Americans. But in the long term, if they don't botch it, their heart is in the right place. This should have been done years ago, by Bush II, or Obama, or Trump, but it finally took "a Joe Biden" to get it done.

From Peter Zeihan today:

The Biden administration's moves against China's semiconductor industry are continuing to have serious consequences, including the largely universal resignation of American citizens working in the Chinese chip industry
China will rapidly find itself unable to fill in several critical gaps in terms of skilled workers, design work, technological inputs, etc. 
What are Beijing's options?  
With Europe and Japan largely on board with US action--not many. South Korea and Taiwan could address some needs, but far from all. 
China's future will likely be one where it sources inputs on the grey market--buying components or pulling chips from third-party devices and attempting to insert them in products and industries they were not designed for. It's going to be a time-consuming, ugly, imperfect process, with serious implications for high level computing, China's emerging defense platforms, telecommunications, and more.

For investors, it's another open-book test.

Botched -- October 17, 2022

I referred to the Bush II decade and the Obama decade as the "lost decades," and I do believe others have since referred to those decades as also the "lost decades." There is a tag for "lost_decade."

On Wednesday, October 12, 2022, last week, on one of my long bike rides I was trying to come up with how "we" will end up referring to the Biden decade. He will only serve one term but the policies his administration puts in place will affect the US for at least a decade.

It was amazing how fast his administration undid what the Trump administration had accomplished, but I digress. 

So, back to how to refer to the Biden administration? 

And then it struck me: "botched." 

At that time, last week, I added a neew tag, "botched_decade."

Either the next day or two days later, others came up with the same tag. LOL. Amazing. 

Link here

The Road To New England -- October 17, 2022

In the big scheme of things, I only follow a few "issues" outside of the Bakken. I used to follow / track articles on "global warming" / "climate change" but now that I understand what's going on and because it's generally the same story day in / day out, I tend not to follow it much any more. I've also quit following the Biden administration, and politics, in general, but occasionally post something on the latter, but I certainly don't follow Biden like I followed Bush II, Obama, Hillary and Trump. 

I don't follow the EV story as much as the "streaming wars" story.

How I decide what to track? I have no idea. Whatever seems to interest me, mostly to try to get a better understanding of something. Once I feel I have a good understanding of something, I tend to lose interest.

That's all background to ISO NE and ISO NY. How in the world did I ever get interested in those two grids / issues? It started with ISO NE and then, sometime late, to ISO NY. I started following ISO NE when they started banning new sources of fossil fuel just a few miles to the west of them and tried to replace it with wind energy. So, that was years ago. And then ISO NY when that witless representative from Long Island wanted to do the same thing. Be that as it may, others are now following the same story.

A reader alerted me to a story in The WSJ today, October 17, 2022:

New England power producers are preparing for potential strain on the grid this winter as a surge in natural-gas demand abroad threatens to reduce supplies they need to generate electricity.

New England, which relies on natural-gas imports to bridge winter supply gaps, is now competing with European countries for shipments of liquefied natural gas, following Russia’s halt of most pipeline gas to the continent. Severe cold spells in the Northeast could reduce the amount of gas available to generate electricity as more of it is burned to heat homes. [Any mention of the Utica, Marcellus, or Permian?] [Any mention of solar or wind?]

The region’s power-grid operator, ISO New England Inc., has warned that an extremely cold winter could strain the reliability of the grid and potentially result in the need for rolling blackouts to keep electricity supply and demand in balance. The warning comes as executives and analysts predict power producers could have to pay as much as several times more than last year for gas deliveries if severe weather creates urgent need for spot-market purchases.

“The most challenging aspect of this winter is what’s happening around the world and the extreme volatility in the markets,” said Vamsi Chadalavada, the grid operator’s chief operating officer. “If you are in the commercial sector, at what point do you buy fuel?”

Power producers in New England are limited in their ability to store fuel on site and face challenges in contracting for gas supplies, as most pipeline capacity is reserved by gas utilities serving homes and businesses. Most generators tend to procure only a portion of imports with fixed-price agreements and instead rely on the spot market, where gas prices have been volatile, to fill shortfalls.

The New England ISO expects that the grid can weather a mild-to-moderate winter without significant reliability challenges. However, it has warned that electricity demand could threaten to surge beyond available supply after multiple sustained periods of severely cold weather, which would result in calls for conservation similar to those issued in California in September during a regionwide heat wave.

Some of my readers have suggested we have the same problem in Texas with ERCOT. Nope, we don't.

In New England, it's a "green-led" supply problem; in Texas it's a de-regulated, free-market demand problem. Huge difference. 

The "demand" in New England is not growing; the supply if declining. In Texas, the demand is surging and Texans are doing all they can -- including renewable energy (which, or course) makes things worse to increase supply. 

In New England, the powers that be seem to be working to make things worse; in Texas, the powers that be seem to be trying to make things better, albeit with free market and politics often working at cross-purposes.

Link to ISO NE and ISO NY

Monday, October 17, 2022

The Far Side: link here.

 CLR goes private.

Active rigs: 44.

WTI: $85.62.

Natural gas: $6.168.

Tuesday, October 18, 2022: 24 for the month, 24 for the quarter, 469 for the year.
38849, conf, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-5HR,
38366, conf, CLR, Fuller 4-2H1,

Monday, October 17, 2022: 22 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 467 for the year.
None

Sunday, October 16, 2022: 22 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 467 for the year.
None

Saturday, October 15, 2022: 22 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 467 for the year.
None

RBN Energy: apparently pending. 

From Friday's daily activity report:

WELLS COMPLETED

  • #36873 - GRAYSON MILL OPERATING, LLC, DOMASKIN 30-31 XW 1H, NWNE 30-155N-92W, MOUNTRAIL CO., 587 BOPD, 315 BWPD 
  • #36874 - GRAYSON MILL OPERATING, LLC, JACK CVANCARA 19-18 XW 1H, NWNE 30-155N-92W, MOUNTRAIL CO., 1201 BOPD, 823 BWPD 
  • #37369 - PETRO-HUNT, LLC, JORGENSON 158-94-2B-11-2H, SWSW 35-159N-94W, BURKE CO., 544 BOPD, 1329 BWPD 
  • #37372 - PETRO-HUNT, LLC, ESTBY 159-94-35C-26-1HS, SWSW 35-159N-94W, BURKE CO., 491 BOPD, 2119 BWPD 
  • #38694 - LIME ROCK RESOURCES III-A, L.P., BEHR 16-21 1TFH-LL-155-91, SWSW 09-155N-91W, MOUNTRAIL CO., 602 BOPD, 1503 BWPD

CLR — October 17, 2022

https://investors.clr.com/2022-10-17-Continental-Resources-Announces-Definitive-Agreement-to-Be-Acquired-by-the-Hamm-Family

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Focus On Fracking

Link here.

  • 2,150,000 barrels per day of unwanted oil were produced globally in September, even as OPEC's output was 1,354,000 barrels per day short of their quota; 
  • US Strategic Petroleum Reserve was at another 38-year low, 
  • US gasoline demand was at an 8 month low.

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Home Safely After Trip To Nashville, TN
Over The Weekend To See Granddaughter
Vanderbilt University Sophomore