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Thursday, October 6, 2022

A Nice CLR Bang Well -- October 6, 2022

The CLR Bang wells are tracked here. 

The well:

  • 37941, conf, CLR, Bang 3033H1, Cedar Coulee, no production data, NENE 32-147-96; 597 FNL 1050 FEL; huge well;

Full production profile:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2022132004197734432865261133
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-20220000000
BAKKEN5-2022001770000
BAKKEN4-2022241904719017163712455324072382
BAKKEN3-2022313122831242255303808637679279
BAKKEN2-2022283424934269254313890738638154
BAKKEN1-2022314165841663302544860147654825
BAKKEN12-20213139843397763163147084459291023
BAKKEN11-2021633923273325639223680217
BAKKEN10-20210000000
BAKKEN9-2021238438420042410241

40X Jump In Production -- An Old CLR Bang Well In Cedar Coulee -- October 6, 2022

The CLR Bang wells are tracked here. 

The well

  • 16797, 108, CLR, Bang 1-33H, Cedar Coulee, t4/08; cum 164K 10/20; cum 168K 6/21; off line 7/21; remains off line 8/21; back on line and the off line while neighboring wells fracked; cum 235K 8/22;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2022151790000
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-20220000000
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-202217390742251511482446670
BAKKEN3-202217506948182902519149790
BAKKEN2-202224637266542750824479460
BAKKEN1-2022311155011608583514730143110
BAKKEN12-2021311600416229896919237188180
BAKKEN11-20213020533203411956322195217900
BAKKEN10-20216331930195476328832070
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-2021110001000
BAKKEN6-2021304575861178884960
BAKKEN5-202131500524829595400
BAKKEN4-202130477576788975050
BAKKEN3-202131515312939255060

Slawson With Two New Banshee Permits In Sanish Oil Field -- October 6, 2022

WTI: $88.45.

Natural gas:$6.972.

Active rigs: 44

Two new permits, #39295 - #39296, inclusive:

  • Operator: Slawson
  • Field: Sanish (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Slawson has permit for two Banshee wells, lot 4 section 2-153-91; 
      • to be sited 330 FNL and at 1150 FWL and at 1100 FWL

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 35154, 1,212, XTO, Bullberry Federal 24X-2G, Lost Bridge, minimal production;
  • 38607, 2,309, CLR, Bang 10-4H, Cedar Coulee, minimal production;
  • 38609, 1,974, CLR, Bang 12-4H, Cedar Coulee, minimal production;
  • 38610, 2,015, CLR, Bang FIU 14-4HSL, Cedar Coulee, minimal production;
  • 38614, 1,631, CLR, Bang 13-4H1, Cedar Coulee, minimal production;

The CLR Bang wells are tracked here.

Based on well name changes, it appears Hess has canceled five permits:

  • SC-JWW Hamilton permits in Williams County.

A-10 -- October 6, 2022

Link here

 From the linked article:

New sets of sturdier wings that will extend the A-10 Thunderbolt’s service life for thousands of flight hours are arriving even as the U.S. Air Force continues to push plans for putting the close air support jets out to pasture.
Boeing delivered 173 wing assemblies under an initial re-winging effort completed in 2017. The production line lay dormant before the Air Force ordered new wing sets in 2019. In partnership with Korean Aerospace Industries, Boeing announced the delivery of the first of 50 new wing sets on order to Hill Air Force Base in Ogden, Utah, on May 25. 
Air Force maintainers have already begun integrating the more durable wings onto an A-10. The Air Force has 281 A-10s in its current fleet, though it plans to divest 21 in fiscal year 2023 if Congress allows it. 
The A-10 is the cheapest aircraft to operate in the Air Force's tactical jet portfolio.

It's also the premier tank killer?

Renewable Energy: The Wrong Side Of History -- Off The Net -- Going Biking -- October 6, 2022

Wow, wow, wow. After posting this earlier this morning, this just popped up in social media, link here:

From earlier this morning, linked above:

Renewable energy:

  • for investors, not a lot of good news for those choosing wind / solar over oil / natural gas
  • how many stories have you read lately about countries rushing to sign renewable energy deals with GE, Siemens?
  • this is what those on the wrong side of history are seeing: link here to the best contributor over at oilprice.com.

General Electric is laying off staff at its onshore wind power unit as part of a restructuring that came in response to the underperformance of the business. 
The company will reportedly cut its U.S. onshore wind workforce by 20 percent. 
GE’s onshore wind power business has been troubled by rising raw materials costs, weakening demand, and supply chain snags. The weaker demand came in response to the expiry of renewable power tax credits that made wind and solar cheaper than most alternatives.

From The LA Times today: $8-gasoline? Here, hold my gas container.

A move by OPEC+ could make California gas prices (even) worse. 
As gas prices hit record highs in Los Angeles County, a pledge by OPEC+ to reduce its oil production by 2 million barrels a day brought concerns about more economic pain to come. 
California is seeing surging pump prices in the wake of shutdowns at several oil refineries that produce a specific formula of gasoline for the state. This most recent spike is mostly confined to California and the West Coast. 
There was debate among experts about the effect of the OPEC+ move, which was designed to boost sagging oil prices. It remains unclear how the reduction will affect pump prices. Experts say it poses another threat to the shaky global economy; others say the spike could be brief in California as refineries come back online.

The lede did not mention California's taxes and fees of $1.51 per gallon of gasoline. 

Instead of rushing out to negotiate more wind power, more solar panels to meet pending EV demand, the California governor wants oil companies to open the taps for more gasoline. That speaks volumes, doesn't it? 

Link here:

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The Book Page

Breathless: The Scientific Race to Defeat a Deadly Virus, David Quammen, 2022, p. 4.

The first alert:

  • posted on social media by Yize (Henry ) Li, a China-born virologist and immunologist;
  • he is now an assistant professor at Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ
  • doctorate at: Institut Pasteur, Shanghai, under mentorship of a French professor
  • came to US in 2013; postdoctoral fellowship with Susan R. Weiss, veeteran viroologist at the University of Pennsylvania's Perelman School of Medicine;
  • Weiss: an authority on coronavirus; long history of research
    • SARS (2003); MERS (2012); 
  • Henry Li was in Philadelphia in late December, 2019
  • noticed an item on a Chinese news website, DiYiCaiJing, Shanghai
  • item
    • advisory, and probably meant to be confidential
    • sent to the staff at a Wuhan hospital (was probably sent to more than one hospital)
    • supposedly origiinated from the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission
    • warned of an outbreak of an "unknown pathogen" causing pneumonia in several hospitals in Wuhan
  • and, that information was placed on social media in late 2019

A lot packed into those few lines.

To conclude this section:

  • That initial item (above).
  • then virologists immediately started posting the genome -- consistent with a coronavirus.
  • Weiss: on sabbatical in La Jolla, CA
    • now speaking with Li in weekly Zoom meetings
    • Henry Li told her a "new" coronavirus was circulating in China
  • on January 2, 2020, Weiss returned to Philadelphia
    • her crew immediately began ordering more N95 masks, along with more PPE
    • later, they would order powered air purifying respirators (PAPRs) -- think space helmets without the suits
  • Weiss knew she needed to "work" on this "new" coronavrus.

Jobless Report -- October 6, 2022

The numbers: yawn.

  • initial claims: up 29,000 week-over-week; not statistically significant 
  • continuing claims: up 15,000; not statistically significant

Most analysts track U-3. Not me. U-1. Link here. If one actually looks at the definitions of the various categories, one will understand why I prefer U-1.

Jobs report: pending. This was last week:

Brilliant Move -- October 6, 2022

 Amazon -- NFL Thursday Night Football.

I don't know how many folks are catching this, but starting Wednesdays and going through Thursday every week, listen for Amazon commercials for NFL Thursday Night Football.

Except for those living in the two metropolitan areas whose teams are playing, the only way one can watch the game is on Amazon Prime Video.

And this will go no for thirteen years. 

By Thursday, every football fan is "starved" for NFL football. 

This week, only viewers in Indianapolis and Denver can watch the game on one of their local networks. Everywhere else, from Los Angeles to Dallas to Tampa Bay to Chicago to NYC, viewers need to view the game through Amazon Prime Video. 

The final regular season NFL TNF game, week 17: Dallas Cowboys vs Tennessee Titans.

Truly amazing. 

Not only does this attract new subscribers, but it also helps current subscribers make up their minds to keep their subscriptions. 

And, as noted, cash back on my Amazon credit card is currently twice that of the annual Prime subscription. I probably spend upwards of 25% more than I would otherwise spend if I didn't have the combo (Prime and credit card) but doesn't bother. I order books on a regular basis from Amazon and I still get them "free" with cash back.

***********************
This Week's Book

Overnight delivery. Published / released October 4, 2022.

Getting Better And Better -- October 6, 2022

 Getting better and better. Link here. I now follow here.

One Well Coming Off Confidential List Today -- Thursday, October 6, 2022

Today's number, jobless report: yawn --

  • initial claims: up 29,000 week-over-week; not statistically significant 
  • continuing claims: up 15,000; not statistically significant

Jobs report: pending. This was last week:

Rivian: confirms production of 7,363 electric pickups and SUVs in 3Q22, a significant ramp. Tesla pickups? None. Nada. Zero. Zilch. 

NOG: announces closing of the Midland deal.

Russian oil: as predicted. It was just a matter of time. Link here.

The Permian, link here.

Diesel: I mentioned this earlier. Gasoline is not the issue; it's diesel. Heavy oil. Canadian oil. Keystone XL. Canceled. On his first day in office. Link here. From the Reuteers oil analyst.

CVX, DVN: link to a SeekingAlpha contributor.

Abbreviated disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

DVN, link here.

**************************
Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 44.

WTI: $87.63 -- unable to hold above $88.

Natural gas: just under $7.00

Friday, October 7, 2022: 15 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 460 for the year
38820, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Defrance 5-12-1-158N-100W-MMBH,
36991, conf, Enerplus, Minnow 149-94-36C-25H,
35626, conf, Bowline Lee 151-101-8-5-4H,

Thursday, October 6, 2022: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 457 for the year
38807, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Fantuz 5-13-24-158NN-100W-MBH,

RBN Energy: Alberta ramping up efforts to produce lithium from oil and gas well brine

Lithium is in high demand worldwide for the production of rechargeable batteries used in the rapidly expanding electric vehicle (EV) and utility-scale energy storage markets, as well as a plethora of everyday mobile devices. The problem is, there are relatively few places on the planet that offer rock formations or naturally occurring underground brine reservoirs conducive to the economic production of lithium — and even there the concentrations of lithium in the rock and brine are measured in parts per million. Now, a handful of companies in Alberta and elsewhere are exploring the potential for “direct lithium extraction” from oil and gas well brine, an alternative technique that some view as a potential breakthrough. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the promise — and potential pitfalls — of lithium production from oil and gas brine.

They seem to be with us wherever we go — or don’t go — these days. Our digitized, wireless and cordless world has produced billions of devices in the form of smartphones, laptops, tablets, drills, grass trimmers, lawn mowers and, yes, even EVs, all of which are becoming so commonplace that we do not even seem to notice them anymore. You might be able to quickly come up with at least a couple of dozen other examples, but they all have something in common: rechargeable batteries that allow them to be used on the go without the fuss of being constantly plugged into an electric outlet or relying on a hydrocarbon-based fuel as part of an internal-combustion process. Also, utility-scale energy storage has been catching on in a big way — it involves series of massive, rechargeable batteries that sock away (mostly) renewable energy for use when demand peaks.

Earnings -- 3Q22

Note: this is, hands down, one of the most boring things I to do each quarter. I doubt anyone really looks at it but the day I quit doing this will be the day I miss posting something important. The word "important" is used loosely. Very loosely.

This is so boring that I actually didn't record a thing for 1Q20, but that was two years ago. Maybe things have changed. LOL.

This is linked at the top of the sidebar at the right during earnings season. After earnings -- pretty much after XOM and Apple posts their earnings -- this post will move back into obscurity.


Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Earnings -- 3Q22
June - August, 2022

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. If this is important to you, go to the source. There will be content and typographical errors on this page. If something looks wrong, it probably is.

NOG: free cash flow doubled year/year.

CLR: beat, miss.

DVN: beat

XOM, CVX: profits surge.

Hess: link here, surges.

SLB: surged. EPS beat by 14%.

AAPL: note, this is Apple's fourth quarter.

XOM:

Exxon expects to report strong financial results for the third quarter of the year after smashing previous profit records in the second quarter on the back of the oil and gas price rally. 
Exxon could book a third-quarter net profit close to its second-quarter record of $17.9 billion
Average oil prices in the third quarter were $98 per barrel of Brent, which was substantially lower than the $109-per-barrel average in the second quarter, but still high enough to boost profits.

JPMorgan: highest quarterly net interest income ever. Let that sink in. Link here.

 

Apple And Chips -- October 6, 2022

From the other day:

An update:


In other news, link here:

Bottom line:

If you prefer the ‌iPhone 12‌'s set of features, then it is still a good option for $599, but generally most users looking for an affordable ‌iPhone‌ should opt for the ‌iPhone SE‌ since it is more future-proof and offers a similar A15 chipset as Apple's latest iPhone 14 and ‌iPhone 14‌ Plus models. 
It is also worth noting that the iPhone 13 mini starts at the same $599 price point as the ‌iPhone 12‌ and continues to be available from Apple, but it features a smaller display at just 5.4-inches. 
The ‌iPhone 13‌ mini is a newer device and starts with double the storage of the ‌iPhone 12‌ at 128GB, so the ‌iPhone 13‌ mini will be a better option for users who are considering the ‌iPhone 12‌ but do not mind having a slightly smaller display.

This is a no-brainer.

For Planninng Purposes: Map Of The Day -- October 6, 2022

Decades ago, in college in South Dakota, I signed on with a company in Nashville, TN, for a summer job. After a one-week orientation and sales course, three of us headed to the east coast. We passed within miles of Butcher Hollow around midnight, never knowing what we were missing.

Renewble Energy Advocates Clearly On The Wrong Side Of History -- October 6, 2022

Poster child for the confused: the Biden administration.

In the US natural gas is trending toward $6; the price of natural gas is coming down in Europe; and the Europeans are now fully (100%) stocked with natural gas for this winter. The naysayers that suggest it will be worse in 2023 - 2024 are wrong.

There is no shortage of natural gas. It is simply a logistical challenge and a pivot from one energy source to another in less than a year. Two years from now, it's a non-problem.

And when it comes to "where" that LNG is going to come from, it's going to be from only a few countries: the US, Qatar, and perhaps, Australia, Norway, and a handful of others.

LNG:

Qatar wants bragging rights:

UK, Norway, and Qatar:

Renewable energy:

  • for investors, not a lot of good news for those choosing wind / solar over oil / natural gas
  • how many stories have you read lately about countries rushing to sign renewable energy deals with GE, Siemens?
  • this is what those on the wrong side of history are seeing: link here to the best contributor over at oilprice.com.

General Electric is laying off staff at its onshore wind power unit as part of a restructuring that came in response to the underperformance of the business. 
The company will reportedly cut its U.S. onshore wind workforce by 20 percent. 
GE’s onshore wind power business has been troubled by rising raw materials costs, weakening demand, and supply chain snags. The weaker demand came in response to the expiry of renewable power tax credits that made wind and solar cheaper than most alternatives.

For investors: it's an open-book test.

XOM:


Exxon expects to report strong financial results for the third quarter of the year after smashing previous profit records in the second quarter on the back of the oil and gas price rally. 
Exxon could book a third-quarter net profit close to its second-quarter record of $17.9 billion
Average oil prices in the third quarter were $98 per barrel of Brent, which was substantially lower than the $109-per-barrel average in the second quarter, but still high enough to boost profits.

Today's ticker:


There's More To Ukraine Than Meets The Eye -- October 6, 2022

$250,000: that's the bounty on a working Russian MBT. Ukraine soldiers who capture an intact, working Russian MBT share a $250,000-bounty.

Peter Zeihan, link here:

Two links: