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Thursday, September 22, 2022

Siting Of Three SEG Wells In Stanley Oil Field -- September 22, 2022

Three new permits, #39257 - #39259, inclusive:

  • Operator: Stephens Williston, LLC, DBA SEG Williston, LLC
  • Field: Stanley (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • SEG has permits for three Greenbrier 15591W wells, SWSE 11-155-91; 
      • to be sited 383 FSl and between 1319 FEL and 1379 FEL

Graphics:

Existing wells, note: the scout tickets suggest these wells are flowing without a pump --

  • 19108, 1,200, SEG, Amy Elizabeth 11-2H, t8/11; cum 221K 7/22; F
  • 23760, 930, SEG, Arnold Carter 11-2H-155-91, t7/13; cum 229K 7/22; F;
  • 23759,1,350, SEG, John Paul 11-2H-155-91, t7/13; cum 247K 7/22; F;

SEG Williston With Three Stanley Oil Field Permits -- September 22, 2022

Flashback: link here.

**************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 47.

Three new permits, #39257 - #39259, inclusive:

  • Operator: Stephens Williston, LLC, DBA SEG Williston, LLC
  • Field: Stanley (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • SEG has permits for three Greenbrier 15591W wells, SWSE 11-155-91; 
      • to be sited 383 FSl and between 1319 FEL and 1379 FEL

No other data.

10X Jump In Production; The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me -- September 22, 2022

The Bakken never ceases to amaze me. Looking for a needle in a haystack, looking for a reason why some great wells were taken off line. Here's the reason:

The well:

  • 35081, 3,556, CLR, Carson Peak 8-35H2, Second Bench Three Forks, 52 stages; 14.2 million lbs; Oakdale, t5/19; cum 116K in 46 days; cum 503K 5/20; cum 685K 7/22; recent production, look at that huge jump in production, noo sundry form to explain jump in production; FracFocus with no data of new frack (which makes sense; new production jump but not high enough to suggest a re-frack):
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20223113552134678332130681286331
BAKKEN6-20228375137332537451444637
BAKKEN5-2022271045104120198467010
BAKKEN4-2022112902946862882200
BAKKEN3-20223110031004191711585470
BAKKEN2-2022281382138617137065690
BAKKEN1-2022311913191025819598050
BAKKEN12-2021301709170930756154700
BAKKEN11-20213022822281399543074056102
BAKKEN10-20212018531857312448364629108

Update: WPX Delores Sand 29-32HY -- September 22, 2022

A sister well just went over 500K bbls crude oil cumulative:

  • 35546, 3,940, WPX, Delores Sand 29-32HD, Antelope, t6/19; cum 510K 7/22; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH7-2022313663363385507289692111
SANISH6-202230343334077513656762079
SANISH5-2022313037304293645727535012
SANISH4-20223017741635388820171659168
SANISH3-20220000000
SANISH2-20220000000
SANISH1-20220000000
SANISH12-20210000000
SANISH11-20210000000
SANISH10-2021001990000
SANISH9-20213027742817292812117106831258
SANISH8-20213151304976572822382184563915
SANISH7-20213121362316266993208889415

This well was mentioned in passing some time ago:

  • 35544, SI/A, WPX, Delores Sand 29-32HY, Antelope, t--; cum 81K 7/22; TD: 21029; Three Forks, originally drilled February / March, 2019; 32 stages; 7.85 million lbs proppant; stim test, 12/10/21; full production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH7-2022316557655514207328643232649
SANISH6-2022307232729112789244872397329
SANISH5-2022318966889614389200791968472
SANISH4-20223041374225808215217150460
SANISH3-20223110019100521755130795304320
SANISH2-202228115891143020777460073308612594
SANISH1-202231179981811426085714523671934426
SANISH12-202131147301432826711584782014838023
SANISH11-20210000000
SANISH10-20210000000
SANISH9-20210000000
SANISH8-20210000000
SANISH7-20210000000
SANISH6-20210000000
SANISH5-20210000000
SANISH4-20210000000
SANISH3-20210000000
SANISH2-20210000000
SANISH1-20210000000
SANISH12-20200000000
SANISH11-20200000000
SANISH10-20200000000
SANISH9-20200000000
SANISH8-20200000000
SANISH7-20200000000
SANISH6-20200000000
SANISH5-20200000000
SANISH4-20200000000
SANISH3-20201000101
SANISH2-20200000000
SANISH1-20200000000
SANISH12-20190000000
SANISH11-20190000000
SANISH10-20190000000
SANISH9-20190000000
SANISH8-20190000000
SANISH7-20190000000
SANISH6-20190000000

Four Whiting Wells In The Sanish Taken Off Line -- September 22, 2022

September 22, 2022: 18559, 25727, 20505, 25728.  

All taken off line; cannot find reasons. All placed on "things to follow up" list.

Random Update Of A Monster EOG Hawkeye Well In Antelope Oil Field; Production Jumps From 1500 Bbls To 5000 Bbls/Month -- September 22, 2022

The well:

  • 24337, 2,519, EOG, Hawkeye 3-2413H, 28 stages; 10 million lbs sand, t5/13; cum 852K 3/21; huge well; great production continues, 10/19; only 22 days, 4/20; off line 5/20; cum 868K 9/21; cum 900K 7/22;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH7-20223149705028111021560210260
SANISH6-20223049785084100317149166310
SANISH5-20223152375191126314678141330
SANISH4-202229441943886291015996690
SANISH3-20223026913287795575252450
SANISH2-20222124613078912508347340
SANISH1-20223114491226202363831010
SANISH12-20213118542782358472041870
SANISH11-20213025161757489582253270
SANISH10-2021311863709328435438210
SANISH9-20213022652225403506045470
SANISH8-20213121412232446533247920
SANISH7-20213124393138546600454630
SANISH6-20213029033010594678262650
SANISH5-20213130422150574712466000
SANISH4-20213032413386566781072820
SANISH3-20213135293372642814575990
SANISH2-20212833053294589725967660
SANISH1-20213135493651631761170650

Consumers Want High-End, High-Margin, High-Profit iPhone 14 Pros -- September 22, 2022

See this post

Now this.

Long-term investors aren't buying AAPL for the dividend. 

Abbreviated disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them
.

And These Are Experts, Analysts? -- September 22, 2022

This is truly staggering. We've been talking about this for more than a decade: rig efficiency. Where the hell have these folks been? These are experts? These are analysts. I even have a "rig efficiency" tag. 

I bet these folks don't know we can spud a well and bring it to production and delivered to a refinery in less than thirty days.

And then to see some of the replies. OMG!

Anything Worth Having, Must Have Some Value -- September 22, 2022

When interest rates were zero percent, that suggested to me money had no value. It was free. Things that are free, by definition, don't have value.

Interest rates of three percent seem about right when things are moving along slowly but in a good direction.

In the current environment five percent interest rates are absolutely in line with the value of money. 

Older gen Z'ers, millennials, and younger gen x'ers are over-reacting to "the Fed."

April 16, 2022: how Gallup "defines" the generations:

  • generation Z (born 1997 - 2004): 18 - 25 years old
  • millennials (born 1981 - 1996): 26 - 41 years old
  • generation X (born 1965 - 1980): 42 - 57 years old
  • baby boomers (born 1946 - 1964): 58 - 76 years old
  • traditionalists (born before 1946): over 76 years old

With regard to the economy, the last person to whom I would listen is Rand Paul. Perhaps I'm wrong. Perhaps he's a genius when it comes to the US economy. So, let me re-state that: with regard to personal investing, the last person to whom I would listen is Rand Paul.

Link here for current data. Link here for 2018 data.


How in the world did his net worth go from $800K to $400K over ten years. I must be mis-reading something or not getting the full story. Maybe he holds gold bars and values it at $0.

I have trouble getting upset with the US government sending a few thousand dollars (or even many thousand dollars) to families earning less than $25,000 / year (or even $50,000 / year) when Jamie Dimon earned $85 million in one year, in 2021. Jamie Dimon's net worth: $1.4 billion.

John Kerry, net worth:

Teresa Heinz Kerry: $1.2 billion.

Covid-19 -- September 22, 2022

The more one looks at these numbers, the more fascinating this phenomenon was / is.

In round numbers, about one-third of the world's population has been diagnosed with Covid-19. Some will argue the number of diagnosed cases was exaggerated for all number of reasons, but that argument is vacuous for all number of reasons. 

I cannot think of any infectious disease that hit so many folks in so little time. Spanish flu might have been similar but it died out completely within four years without any intervention; there is no suggestion that Covid-19 will disappear any time soon, and if so, that "one-third" diagnosed will continue to rise.

Link here.



New cases adjusted for population:

  • South Korea: 50 million --> 960 new cases / million population
  • France: 70 million --> 743
  • Germany: 80 million -->  712
  • Italy: 60 million --> 467
  • Japan: 125 million --> 328
  • USA: 330 million --> 145

Population density, per square mile:

  • South Korea: 1,400 / square mile
  • Japan: 900
  • Germany: 600
  • Italy: 500
  • France: 300
  • USA: 100

Bull's Eye -- Simply The Best Ad-Free, Bakken-Focused, Subscription-Free Blog On The Internet -- September 22, 2022

Yesterday I posted:

Oil and the Fed: oil traders hate "uncertainty," and that's what they got in "the Fed" statement, a huge amount of "uncertainty." 

But there's one thing oil traders hate even more than "uncertainty," and that's when they get the feeling that no one knows what's going on. And listening to "the Fed" summary statement today, one certainly gets the feeling no one knows what's going on.

Today, link here:

Jamie Dimon Gets It -- September 22, 2022

Jamie Dimon gets it. One of the few. Link here. Not what they wanted to hear.  Watch again. And again. And again.

*********************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 48.

The Far Side: link here.

WTI: not gonna look.

Natural gas: not gonna look.

Friday, September 23, 2022: 36 for the month, 86 for the quarter, 425 for the year
38182, conf, Rimrock, Moccasin Creek 14-11 4H,

Thursday, September 22, 2022: 35 for the month, 85 for the quarter, 424 for the year
38722, conf, Ovintiv, Calhoun 149-98-3-10-4H,
38698, conf, Rimrock, MC 14-11 Polar Bear 34H,

RBN Energy: in G-7's plans for price cap, punishing Russia is easier said than done, part 2

Economic sanctions can be a powerful tool to punish a country or group, especially if they involve an essential commodity like crude oil. Imposed for a variety of reasons (military, political, social), sanctions can cause serious harm to the targeted entity. But levying them effectively is not as simple as it may seem, and even the most well-intentioned plans can fall short or have unintended consequences or backfire altogether. In today’s RBN blog we look at a plan by the U.S. and its allies to limit the price of Russian crude oil and the significant challenges in designing a cap that is effective and enforceable.

Russia’s catastrophic invasion of Ukraine sent a jolt through the international community and tensions shot higher Wednesday after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a massive call-up of military reservists and made other thinly veiled threats about Russia’s military capabilities. Apart from the humanitarian tragedy unfolding, the subsequent increase in energy prices and their effect on inflation has been by far the most significant concern for energy this year.

It will be a lot easier when Putin goes nuclear.

Flight Radar Out Of Moscow -- Be Careful -- Time Lapse And Homer 1 -- September 22, 2022

Prediction: this post will be the #1 viewed post on the blog by the end of the day. 

Putin's Moscow: It's probably not really this bad. 

Link here.

Moscow today. Number one destination? Countries with nude beaches. Seriously.

Right now, the USAF #1 spy plane, call sign, Homer #1.

Chania: northwest coast of Crete (Greek).

Apple Watch -- September 22, 2022

Yesterday I posted:

Whether you love or hate Apple, these headlines are obnoxious. On so many levels. It should be noted that CNBC is a Microsoft company. Who is it for a journalist (or any person, for that matter) to tell us what we need / don't need; want / don't want?


Just as obnoxious: those headlines / stories purporting to tell us "everything" we need to know about something. Amazing how bright these folks are to know everything about something about which I need to know.

Wow, wow, wow. Bull's eye.

Link here. Overwhelming demand for the watch no one needs has resulted in shipping delays

Link here. Reviews

  • folks love the 60-hour-plus battery life
  • folks love the 100-feet water resistance
  • apparently real folks know this is more than a watch, something mainstream journalists seem not to know
The Verge's Victoria Song shared her overall impressions:
The Apple Watch Ultra is big, a lil' chunky, and goes hard on features that the average joe won't need in their everyday life. And at $799, it's the most expensive watch in the current Apple Watch lineup (Hermès edition excluded). After a week of testing, I don’t think it's going to bump Garmin, Polar, or Coros watches for the Ironman, thru-hiker, or deep-sea diving crowds, at least not yet. But it's legitimately good for weekend warriors and intermediate athletes — and very tempting for folks who aspire to that status and a whole lot of people who just want the biggest, baddest Apple Watch they can get.
Song said in a week of testing the Apple Watch Ultra, she was "regularly blowing past" the device's advertised 36-hour battery life in standard mode:
- This past weekend, I charged the Ultra to 100 percent. I then hiked for two hours and 15 minutes, used the compass and GPS extensively, and tracked my sleep that night. I woke up the next morning with 50 percent battery left.
- Another day, I went for a 30-minute GPS run and did another 20-minute rowing workout. I also took a short call on the watch and ended the day with 84 percent battery.
- Nilay, our editor-in-chief, managed to get 56 hours on a single charge and still had 14 percent left. He was mostly staying at home, so he wasn't using cellular data or GPS. Still, that should give you an idea of what you'd get if you need a few rest days or aren't interested in the Ultra's fitness features.
CNET's Lexy Savvides on pricing vs. the Series 8 and Garmin smartwatches:
Considering the $749 45mm Apple Watch Series 8 in stainless steel costs almost as much, I think the Ultra is a better overall value, given that you get additional hardware features like the Action button (which I've come to love), an emergency siren and extra microphones to boost call quality.

It's also priced competitively with other sports watches that have a similar titanium construction and OLED screens, like the $999 Garmin Epix 2. The Apple Watch Ultra's battery doesn't last as long, and it doesn't have anywhere near as many navigation features as the Epix 2. But it's easier to use, has heart features like an electrocardiogram (ECG or EKG) app, cellular connectivity and seamless integration with the iPhone.

If you're someone who wants a true hybrid smartwatch and sports watch, the Ultra is the one to beat.

For the record, I won't be buying the Apple Watch, any model. I don't wear watches. I don't wear jewelry. I don't wear a wedding band. I don't have tattoos. 

Another Former Putin Ally Dies -- Falls Down EIght Flights Of Stairs -- September 22, 2022

Note: I skimmed through the story. I thought I read eight flights but I really don't know and I'm not going to read the story again to find out.

Must have tripped on his shoe laces.

73 years old. About my age. 

Link here.

Putin now leads Hillary in "conspiracy" killing talk.

Bombings In Sweden -- September 22, 2022

Warning:

  • not fact-checked
  • starts out as news story?
  • morphs into opinion
  • heavy right-wing rhetoric
  • xenphobic 
  • unfair to bombs
  • read with caution
  • not appropriate for children
  • won't find this story over at MSNBC

Is anyone else reporting this? Is this xenophobic?

Yesterday morning, Swedes woke up to news of a kind that has become all-too familiar: During the night, powerful bombs exploded at apartment buildings in two different towns in southern Sweden.

One person was severely injured in Åstorp.

In Helsingborg, the explosion was so powerful that, according to the police, cars parked nearby were destroyed. It is still unclear if the bombings are connected to each other, or who is behind them.

Since 2018, there have been almost 500 bombings—yes, bombings—in what is known as one of the most stable societies in the world.

There’s not just a bombing problem. There are shootings, too.

Sweden, which has a population of around 10 million, has the highest per-capita number of deadly shootings of 22 European countries. Forty-seven people have been shot dead so far this year, which, while far from American levels of gun homicide, is extreme for Europe. Other European countries have come to look at Sweden with horror.

It may be shocking for Americans to learn that in Sweden—the land of IKEA, Spotify and Greta Thunberg—all of this is going on. Perhaps the reason you don’t know about it is because of the uncomfortable reality of how we got here.

Among shooting suspects, 85 percent are first- or second-generation immigrants, according to the newspaper Dagens Nyheter, as immigrant neighborhoods have become hotbeds for gang crime. National Police Commissioner Anders Thornberg has described the violence as “an entirely different kind of brutality than we’ve seen before” and his deputy, Mats Löfving, says that 40 criminal clans now operate throughout the country. Spreading fear are “humiliation robberies,” targeting children and youth, in which victims are subjected to degrading treatment by assailants, such as being urinated upon. Just this week, four men were sentenced for robbing, beating and urinating on an 18-year-old, who was also filmed by his tormentors.

All of which is why, for the first time ever, crime emerged as a top priority among voters ahead of this past weekend’s general election. Swedes made their concerns plain on Sunday, when they awarded the country’s most strident anti-immigration party more than 20 percent of the vote.

The Sweden Democrats, or SD, is now the second-biggest party in parliament, and the biggest party of the right-wing bloc—gaining more votes than the more traditional center-right Moderate party. (It remains to be seen whether Ulf Kristersson, leader of the Moderates, can form a government with the support of SD, while sticking to his promise not to allow the party into the government coalition.)

So how did Sweden’s famously liberal electorate usher in a party with roots on the extreme right? In a word: denial.

In response to Sweden’s increasing problems with gang violence and social unrest in immigrant suburbs, the government’s strategy for many years was to deny how serious the situation had become. ​​In the meantime, those people who noticed the problem—many of whom were working class—and spoke out about their diminished safety were accused of racism by leading politicians, the mainstream press, and the cultural elites. Only one political party did not: the SD. And in election after election, they gained more and more popular support.

This is a story of what happens when the people who run things want to avoid confronting the consequences of their actions.

Gasoline Demand -- Some Random Comments -- September 22, 2022

Correctly labeled:

Some random comments regarding US gasoline demand. 

  • The numbers seem not to reflect what we're seeing in North Texas.
  • A couple of months ago, many of us suggested there was some questionable activity at the EIA manipulating these numbers, and then some folks suggesting service stations were cutting back on deliveries due to high prices and were waiting for prices to come down.
  • But after weeks (months?) of numbers suggesting significant decline in gasoline demand, one can't argue with the chart. It's real: US decline in gasoline demand is real, and it's steep.
  • The number one metric for health of the US economy is gasoline demand.
    US economy in trouble.
  • The most recent weekly number suggests next week's four-week average is going to be even worse.
  • The Biden administration may be gloating that gasoline prices have come down (still over $3.00 / gallon) but in this case, this is not a good sign.
  • The big question: how have Americans been able to cut back on gasoline to this extent with unemployment at historic lows?

Link here.

Link here.

Hurricane Watch -- Did Something Change? September 22, 2022

Updates

Later, 2:59 p.m. CT: found it. It was on AccuWeather, not the NHC site. If named, Hurricane Hermine. Wrong! Hurricane Ian.

Original Post 

NHC: No Hurricane Center.

Earlier this week wasn't there a hurricane watch south of the islands, near the South America coast which was projected to head west, then swing north to the Florida panhandle? Today, it's gone.

National Hurricane Center.

Google winds.

By the way, at "Google winds" look how incredibly strong Fiona is -- but won't come close to US, but Bermuda will get hammered.