Siting Of Three SEG Wells In Stanley Oil Field -- September 22, 2022

Three new permits, #39257 - #39259, inclusive:

• Operator: Stephens Williston, LLC, DBA SEG Williston, LLC
• Field: Stanley (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• SEG has permits for three Greenbrier 15591W wells, SWSE 11-155-91; 
• to be sited 383 FSl and between 1319 FEL and 1379 FEL

Graphics:

Existing wells, note: the scout tickets suggest these wells are flowing without a pump --

• 19108, 1,200, SEG, Amy Elizabeth 11-2H, t8/11; cum 221K 7/22; F
• 23760, 930, SEG, Arnold Carter 11-2H-155-91, t7/13; cum 229K 7/22; F;
• 23759,1,350, SEG, John Paul 11-2H-155-91, t7/13; cum 247K 7/22; F;

SEG Williston With Three Stanley Oil Field Permits -- September 22, 2022

Flashback: link here.

**************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 47.

Three new permits, #39257 - #39259, inclusive:

• Operator: Stephens Williston, LLC, DBA SEG Williston, LLC
• Field: Stanley (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• SEG has permits for three Greenbrier 15591W wells, SWSE 11-155-91; 
• to be sited 383 FSl and between 1319 FEL and 1379 FEL

No other data.

Legacy Fund Deposits Posted -- September, 2022

Link here, posted September 22, 2022.

10X Jump In Production; The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me -- September 22, 2022

The Bakken never ceases to amaze me. Looking for a needle in a haystack, looking for a reason why some great wells were taken off line. Here's the reason:

The well:

• 35081, 3,556, CLR, Carson Peak 8-35H2, Second Bench Three Forks, 52 stages; 14.2 million lbs; Oakdale, t5/19; cum 116K in 46 days; cum 503K 5/20; cum 685K 7/22; recent production, look at that huge jump in production, noo sundry form to explain jump in production; FracFocus with no data of new frack (which makes sense; new production jump but not high enough to suggest a re-frack):

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	13552	13467	8332	13068	12863	31
BAKKEN	6-2022	8	3751	3733	2537	4514	4463	7
BAKKEN	5-2022	27	1045	1041	2019	846	701	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	11	290	294	686	288	220	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	1003	1004	1917	1158	547	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	1382	1386	1713	706	569	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	1913	1910	2581	959	805	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	30	1709	1709	3075	615	470	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	2282	2281	3995	4307	4056	102
BAKKEN	10-2021	20	1853	1857	3124	4836	4629	108

Update: WPX Delores Sand 29-32HY -- September 22, 2022

A sister well just went over 500K bbls crude oil cumulative:

• 35546, 3,940, WPX, Delores Sand 29-32HD, Antelope, t6/19; cum 510K 7/22; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	7-2022	31	3663	3633	8550	7289	6921	11
SANISH	6-2022	30	3433	3407	7513	6567	6207	9
SANISH	5-2022	31	3037	3042	9364	5727	5350	12
SANISH	4-2022	30	1774	1635	3888	2017	1659	168
SANISH	3-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	2-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	1-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	12-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	11-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	10-2021	0	0	199	0	0	0	0
SANISH	9-2021	30	2774	2817	2928	12117	10683	1258
SANISH	8-2021	31	5130	4976	5728	22382	18456	3915
SANISH	7-2021	31	2136	2316	2669	9320	8889	415

This well was mentioned in passing some time ago:

• 35544, SI/A, WPX, Delores Sand 29-32HY, Antelope, t--; cum 81K 7/22; TD: 21029; Three Forks, originally drilled February / March, 2019; 32 stages; 7.85 million lbs proppant; stim test, 12/10/21; full production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	7-2022	31	6557	6555	14207	32864	32326	49
SANISH	6-2022	30	7232	7291	12789	24487	23973	29
SANISH	5-2022	31	8966	8896	14389	20079	19684	72
SANISH	4-2022	30	4137	4225	8082	15217	15046	0
SANISH	3-2022	31	10019	10052	17551	30795	30432	0
SANISH	2-2022	28	11589	11430	20777	46007	33086	12594
SANISH	1-2022	31	17998	18114	26085	71452	36719	34426
SANISH	12-2021	31	14730	14328	26711	58478	20148	38023
SANISH	11-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	10-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	9-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	8-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	7-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	6-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	5-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	4-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	3-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	2-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	1-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	12-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	11-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	10-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	9-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	8-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	7-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	6-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	5-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	4-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	3-2020	1	0	0	0	1	0	1
SANISH	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	1-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	12-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	11-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	10-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	9-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	8-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	7-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	6-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Four Whiting Wells In The Sanish Taken Off Line -- September 22, 2022

September 22, 2022: 18559, 25727, 20505, 25728.  

All taken off line; cannot find reasons. All placed on "things to follow up" list.

Random Update Of A Monster EOG Hawkeye Well In Antelope Oil Field; Production Jumps From 1500 Bbls To 5000 Bbls/Month -- September 22, 2022

The well:

• 24337, 2,519, EOG, Hawkeye 3-2413H, 28 stages; 10 million lbs sand, t5/13; cum 852K 3/21; huge well; great production continues, 10/19; only 22 days, 4/20; off line 5/20; cum 868K 9/21; cum 900K 7/22;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	7-2022	31	4970	5028	1110	21560	21026	0
SANISH	6-2022	30	4978	5084	1003	17149	16631	0
SANISH	5-2022	31	5237	5191	1263	14678	14133	0
SANISH	4-2022	29	4419	4388	629	10159	9669	0
SANISH	3-2022	30	2691	3287	795	5752	5245	0
SANISH	2-2022	21	2461	3078	912	5083	4734	0
SANISH	1-2022	31	1449	1226	202	3638	3101	0
SANISH	12-2021	31	1854	2782	358	4720	4187	0
SANISH	11-2021	30	2516	1757	489	5822	5327	0
SANISH	10-2021	31	1863	709	328	4354	3821	0
SANISH	9-2021	30	2265	2225	403	5060	4547	0
SANISH	8-2021	31	2141	2232	446	5332	4792	0
SANISH	7-2021	31	2439	3138	546	6004	5463	0
SANISH	6-2021	30	2903	3010	594	6782	6265	0
SANISH	5-2021	31	3042	2150	574	7124	6600	0
SANISH	4-2021	30	3241	3386	566	7810	7282	0
SANISH	3-2021	31	3529	3372	642	8145	7599	0
SANISH	2-2021	28	3305	3294	589	7259	6766	0
SANISH	1-2021	31	3549	3651	631	7611	7065	0

Consumers Want High-End, High-Margin, High-Profit iPhone 14 Pros -- September 22, 2022

See this post. 

Now this.

Long-term investors aren't buying AAPL for the dividend. 

Abbreviated disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

And These Are Experts, Analysts? -- September 22, 2022

This is truly staggering. We've been talking about this for more than a decade: rig efficiency. Where the hell have these folks been? These are experts? These are analysts. I even have a "rig efficiency" tag. 

I bet these folks don't know we can spud a well and bring it to production and delivered to a refinery in less than thirty days.

And then to see some of the replies. OMG!

Anything Worth Having, Must Have Some Value -- September 22, 2022

When interest rates were zero percent, that suggested to me money had no value. It was free. Things that are free, by definition, don't have value.

Interest rates of three percent seem about right when things are moving along slowly but in a good direction.

In the current environment five percent interest rates are absolutely in line with the value of money. 

Older gen Z'ers, millennials, and younger gen x'ers are over-reacting to "the Fed."

April 16, 2022: how Gallup "defines" the generations:

• generation Z (born 1997 - 2004): 18 - 25 years old
• millennials (born 1981 - 1996): 26 - 41 years old
• generation X (born 1965 - 1980): 42 - 57 years old
• baby boomers (born 1946 - 1964): 58 - 76 years old
• traditionalists (born before 1946): over 76 years old

With regard to the economy, the last person to whom I would listen is Rand Paul. Perhaps I'm wrong. Perhaps he's a genius when it comes to the US economy. So, let me re-state that: with regard to personal investing, the last person to whom I would listen is Rand Paul.

Link here for current data. Link here for 2018 data.

How in the world did his net worth go from $800K to $400K over ten years. I must be mis-reading something or not getting the full story. Maybe he holds gold bars and values it at $0.

I have trouble getting upset with the US government sending a few thousand dollars (or even many thousand dollars) to families earning less than $25,000 / year (or even $50,000 / year) when Jamie Dimon earned $85 million in one year, in 2021. Jamie Dimon's net worth: $1.4 billion.

John Kerry, net worth:

• $103 million in 2013;
• $250 million in 2021;

Teresa Heinz Kerry: $1.2 billion.

Covid-19 -- September 22, 2022

The more one looks at these numbers, the more fascinating this phenomenon was / is.

In round numbers, about one-third of the world's population has been diagnosed with Covid-19. Some will argue the number of diagnosed cases was exaggerated for all number of reasons, but that argument is vacuous for all number of reasons. 

I cannot think of any infectious disease that hit so many folks in so little time. Spanish flu might have been similar but it died out completely within four years without any intervention; there is no suggestion that Covid-19 will disappear any time soon, and if so, that "one-third" diagnosed will continue to rise.

Link here.

New cases adjusted for population:

• South Korea: 50 million --> 960 new cases / million population
  
• France: 70 million --> 743
• Germany: 80 million -->  712
  
• Italy: 60 million --> 467
• Japan: 125 million --> 328
• USA: 330 million --> 145

Population density, per square mile:

• South Korea: 1,400 / square mile
• Japan: 900
• Germany: 600
• Italy: 500
• France: 300
• USA: 100

Bull's Eye -- Simply The Best Ad-Free, Bakken-Focused, Subscription-Free Blog On The Internet -- September 22, 2022

Yesterday I posted:

Oil and the Fed: oil traders hate "uncertainty," and that's what they got in "the Fed" statement, a huge amount of "uncertainty." 

But there's one thing oil traders hate even more than "uncertainty," and that's when they get the feeling that no one knows what's going on. And listening to "the Fed" summary statement today, one certainly gets the feeling no one knows what's going on.

Today, link here:

Jamie Dimon Gets It -- September 22, 2022

Jamie Dimon gets it. One of the few. Link here. Not what they wanted to hear.  Watch again. And again. And again.

*********************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 48.

The Far Side: link here.

WTI: not gonna look.

Natural gas: not gonna look.

Friday, September 23, 2022: 36 for the month, 86 for the quarter, 425 for the year
38182, conf, Rimrock, Moccasin Creek 14-11 4H,

Thursday, September 22, 2022: 35 for the month, 85 for the quarter, 424 for the year
38722, conf, Ovintiv, Calhoun 149-98-3-10-4H,
38698, conf, Rimrock, MC 14-11 Polar Bear 34H,

RBN Energy: in G-7's plans for price cap, punishing Russia is easier said than done, part 2. 

Economic sanctions can be a powerful tool to punish a country or group, especially if they involve an essential commodity like crude oil. Imposed for a variety of reasons (military, political, social), sanctions can cause serious harm to the targeted entity. But levying them effectively is not as simple as it may seem, and even the most well-intentioned plans can fall short or have unintended consequences or backfire altogether. In today’s RBN blog we look at a plan by the U.S. and its allies to limit the price of Russian crude oil and the significant challenges in designing a cap that is effective and enforceable.

Russia’s catastrophic invasion of Ukraine sent a jolt through the international community and tensions shot higher Wednesday after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a massive call-up of military reservists and made other thinly veiled threats about Russia’s military capabilities. Apart from the humanitarian tragedy unfolding, the subsequent increase in energy prices and their effect on inflation has been by far the most significant concern for energy this year.

It will be a lot easier when Putin goes nuclear.

Flight Radar Out Of Moscow -- Be Careful -- Time Lapse And Homer 1 -- September 22, 2022

Prediction: this post will be the #1 viewed post on the blog by the end of the day. 

Putin's Moscow: It's probably not really this bad. 

Link here.

Moscow today. Number one destination? Countries with nude beaches. Seriously.

Right now, the USAF #1 spy plane, call sign, Homer #1.

Chania: northwest coast of Crete (Greek).

Apple Watch -- September 22, 2022

Yesterday I posted:

Whether you love or hate Apple, these headlines are obnoxious. On so many levels. It should be noted that CNBC is a Microsoft company. Who is it for a journalist (or any person, for that matter) to tell us what we need / don't need; want / don't want?

Just as obnoxious: those headlines / stories purporting to tell us "everything" we need to know about something. Amazing how bright these folks are to know everything about something about which I need to know.

Wow, wow, wow. Bull's eye.

Link here. Overwhelming demand for the watch no one needs has resulted in shipping delays. 

Link here. Reviews

• folks love the 60-hour-plus battery life
• folks love the 100-feet water resistance
• apparently real folks know this is more than a watch, something mainstream journalists seem not to know
  

The Verge's Victoria Song shared her overall impressions:

The Apple Watch Ultra is big, a lil' chunky, and goes hard on features that the average joe won't need in their everyday life. And at $799, it's the most expensive watch in the current Apple Watch lineup (Hermès edition excluded). After a week of testing, I don’t think it's going to bump Garmin, Polar, or Coros watches for the Ironman, thru-hiker, or deep-sea diving crowds, at least not yet. But it's legitimately good for weekend warriors and intermediate athletes — and very tempting for folks who aspire to that status and a whole lot of people who just want the biggest, baddest Apple Watch they can get.

Song said in a week of testing the Apple Watch Ultra, she was "regularly blowing past" the device's advertised 36-hour battery life in standard mode:

- This past weekend, I charged the Ultra to 100 percent. I then hiked for two hours and 15 minutes, used the compass and GPS extensively, and tracked my sleep that night. I woke up the next morning with 50 percent battery left.

- Another day, I went for a 30-minute GPS run and did another 20-minute rowing workout. I also took a short call on the watch and ended the day with 84 percent battery.

- Nilay, our editor-in-chief, managed to get 56 hours on a single charge and still had 14 percent left. He was mostly staying at home, so he wasn't using cellular data or GPS. Still, that should give you an idea of what you'd get if you need a few rest days or aren't interested in the Ultra's fitness features.

CNET's Lexy Savvides on pricing vs. the Series 8 and Garmin smartwatches:

Considering the $749 45mm Apple Watch Series 8 in stainless steel costs almost as much, I think the Ultra is a better overall value, given that you get additional hardware features like the Action button (which I've come to love), an emergency siren and extra microphones to boost call quality.

It's also priced competitively with other sports watches that have a similar titanium construction and OLED screens, like the $999 Garmin Epix 2. The Apple Watch Ultra's battery doesn't last as long, and it doesn't have anywhere near as many navigation features as the Epix 2. But it's easier to use, has heart features like an electrocardiogram (ECG or EKG) app, cellular connectivity and seamless integration with the iPhone.

If you're someone who wants a true hybrid smartwatch and sports watch, the Ultra is the one to beat.

For the record, I won't be buying the Apple Watch, any model. I don't wear watches. I don't wear jewelry. I don't wear a wedding band. I don't have tattoos. 

Another Former Putin Ally Dies -- Falls Down EIght Flights Of Stairs -- September 22, 2022

Note: I skimmed through the story. I thought I read eight flights but I really don't know and I'm not going to read the story again to find out.

Must have tripped on his shoe laces.

73 years old. About my age. 

Link here.

Putin now leads Hillary in "conspiracy" killing talk.

Bombings In Sweden -- September 22, 2022

Warning:

• not fact-checked
• starts out as news story?
• morphs into opinion
• heavy right-wing rhetoric
• xenphobic 
• unfair to bombs
  
• read with caution
• not appropriate for children
• won't find this story over at MSNBC

Is anyone else reporting this? Is this xenophobic?

Yesterday morning, Swedes woke up to news of a kind that has become all-too familiar: During the night, powerful bombs exploded at apartment buildings in two different towns in southern Sweden.

One person was severely injured in Åstorp.

In Helsingborg, the explosion was so powerful that, according to the police, cars parked nearby were destroyed. It is still unclear if the bombings are connected to each other, or who is behind them.

Since 2018, there have been almost 500 bombings—yes, bombings—in what is known as one of the most stable societies in the world.

There’s not just a bombing problem. There are shootings, too.

Sweden, which has a population of around 10 million, has the highest per-capita number of deadly shootings of 22 European countries. Forty-seven people have been shot dead so far this year, which, while far from American levels of gun homicide, is extreme for Europe. Other European countries have come to look at Sweden with horror.

It may be shocking for Americans to learn that in Sweden—the land of IKEA, Spotify and Greta Thunberg—all of this is going on. Perhaps the reason you don’t know about it is because of the uncomfortable reality of how we got here.

Among shooting suspects, 85 percent are first- or second-generation immigrants, according to the newspaper Dagens Nyheter, as immigrant neighborhoods have become hotbeds for gang crime. National Police Commissioner Anders Thornberg has described the violence as “an entirely different kind of brutality than we’ve seen before” and his deputy, Mats Löfving, says that 40 criminal clans now operate throughout the country. Spreading fear are “humiliation robberies,” targeting children and youth, in which victims are subjected to degrading treatment by assailants, such as being urinated upon. Just this week, four men were sentenced for robbing, beating and urinating on an 18-year-old, who was also filmed by his tormentors.

All of which is why, for the first time ever, crime emerged as a top priority among voters ahead of this past weekend’s general election. Swedes made their concerns plain on Sunday, when they awarded the country’s most strident anti-immigration party more than 20 percent of the vote.

The Sweden Democrats, or SD, is now the second-biggest party in parliament, and the biggest party of the right-wing bloc—gaining more votes than the more traditional center-right Moderate party. (It remains to be seen whether Ulf Kristersson, leader of the Moderates, can form a government with the support of SD, while sticking to his promise not to allow the party into the government coalition.)

So how did Sweden’s famously liberal electorate usher in a party with roots on the extreme right? In a word: denial.

In response to Sweden’s increasing problems with gang violence and social unrest in immigrant suburbs, the government’s strategy for many years was to deny how serious the situation had become. ​​In the meantime, those people who noticed the problem—many of whom were working class—and spoke out about their diminished safety were accused of racism by leading politicians, the mainstream press, and the cultural elites. Only one political party did not: the SD. And in election after election, they gained more and more popular support.

This is a story of what happens when the people who run things want to avoid confronting the consequences of their actions.

Gasoline Demand -- Some Random Comments -- September 22, 2022

Correctly labeled:

Some random comments regarding US gasoline demand. 

• The numbers seem not to reflect what we're seeing in North Texas.
• A couple of months ago, many of us suggested there was some questionable activity at the EIA manipulating these numbers, and then some folks suggesting service stations were cutting back on deliveries due to high prices and were waiting for prices to come down.
• But after weeks (months?) of numbers suggesting significant decline in gasoline demand, one can't argue with the chart. It's real: US decline in gasoline demand is real, and it's steep.
• The number one metric for health of the US economy is gasoline demand.
  US economy in trouble.
• The most recent weekly number suggests next week's four-week average is going to be even worse.
• The Biden administration may be gloating that gasoline prices have come down (still over $3.00 / gallon) but in this case, this is not a good sign.
• The big question: how have Americans been able to cut back on gasoline to this extent with unemployment at historic lows?
  

Link here.

Link here.

Hurricane Watch -- Did Something Change? September 22, 2022

Updates

Later, 2:59 p.m. CT: found it. It was on AccuWeather, not the NHC site. If named, Hurricane Hermine. Wrong! Hurricane Ian.

Original Post 

NHC: No Hurricane Center.

Earlier this week wasn't there a hurricane watch south of the islands, near the South America coast which was projected to head west, then swing north to the Florida panhandle? Today, it's gone.

National Hurricane Center.

Google winds.

By the way, at "Google winds" look how incredibly strong Fiona is -- but won't come close to US, but Bermuda will get hammered.