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Thursday, September 15, 2022

CLR's Meadowlark - Skachenko Wells

Locator: 44700SKACHENKO. 

Six new permits, see this post, #39300 - #39305, inclusive:

  • 39300, Skachenko,
  • 39301, Skachenko,
  • 39302, Skachenko,
  • 39303, Meadowlark,
  • 39304, Meadowlark,
  • 39305, Meadowlark,

Eight new permits, #39238 - #39245, inclusive:

  • Operator: CLR
  • Field: Jim Creek (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has permits for four Skachenko wells and four Meadowlark wells, SESW 31-146-95, 
      • to be sited 323 FSL and between 1750 FWL and 2065 FWL
  • 39238, Skachenko
  • 39239, Skachenko,
  • 39240, Skachenko,
  • 39241, Meadowlark,
  • 39242, Meadowlark,
  • 39243, Meadowlark,
  • 39244, Meadowlark,
  • 39245, Skachenko,

The graphics:

Existing wells:

  • 17153, 456, CLR, Skachenko 1-31H, Jim Creek, t12/08; cum 204K 7/22; cum 207K 3/23;
  • 19020, 744, CLR, Meadowlark 3-6H, Jim Creek, t6/11; cum 106K 7/22; cum 163K 3/23;
  • 19021, 879, CLR, Skachenko 3-31H, Jim Creek, t6/11; cum 268K 7/22; cum 272K 2/23; offlinie;
  • 19022, 453, CLR, Meadowlark 2-6H, Jim Creek, t6/11; cum 37K 7/22; cum 386K 2/23; offfllinie;
  • 19023, 726, CLR, Skachenko 2-31H, Jim Creek, t6/11; cum 209K 7/22; cum 213K 2/23; offlnie;

Coal: I Doubt Greta Understands Percentages; CLR With Eight New Permits -- September 15, 2022

Coal: EU, up 14% in 2021; estimates, at least another 7% this year, and maybe more in 2023.

As  I told a reader:
This is simply amazing.

Greta probably doesn't understand percentages, but Bill Gates, John Kerry, and Tom Steyer certainly do.

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $85.10. Down almost 4% today.

Natural gas: $8.324, down almost 9% today.

Eight new permits, #39238 - #39245, inclusive:

  • Operator: CLR
  • Field: Jim Creek (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has permits for four Skachenko wells and four Meadowlark wells, SESW 31-146-95, 
      • to be sited 323 FSL and between 1750 FWL and 2065 FWL;

Approved for horizontal re-entry:

  • 2272, Empire North Dakota, LLC, Johnson O. and V. 1, NE SW 20-161-78, Starbuck Madison Unit, Bottineau County;

Two producing wells (DUCs):

  • 37074, 0 (no typo; typical for BR), BR, Cleofill 1B,
  • 38596, 3,529, Ovintiv, Johnson 150-99-34-27- 5HLW,

Active rigs: 45.

I Can't Keep Track Of The Zeroes. Is This A Trillion? September 15, 2022

Link here. In case google doesn't link that site: https://www.cnsnews.com/article/washington/terence-p-jeffrey/4408452000000-federal-tax-collections-set-record-through. 

US tax revenue, first eleven months of fiscal year 2022:

  • 4,408,452,000,000
    • that was up $525,658,170,00
    • up 13.5%, from
  • previous record of $3,882,793,830,000, first eleven months of FY21

This is why Napier worked with logarithms.

Only $2.4 trillion of that $4.4 trillion was from individual income taxes.

For Investors Only -- September 15, 2022

NFL: I couldn't be in a better mood: Thursday Night Football tonight. Whoo-hoo! LA Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs. Spread: 4 points. My bet: Chiefs by two touchdowns. It could be worse.

  • game to watch this weekend? Bengals at Dallas. Bengals by two two touchdowns, also. 

As an investor, I could not be in a better mood, either.

Note: I have a 40-year horizon. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Twelve of us attended a Schwab luncheon yesterday

My takeaways (these were not Schwab's; they are mine, and mine only):

1. The Fed. When the Fed begins raising rates, US equities fall, and can fall precipitously.

  • historically, taking all cases, on average, when the Fed begins raising rates, it takes 15 months for the market to get back to "even";
  • historically, when the Fed raises slowly and cautiously, it take nine months to recover for the market to get back to even;
  • historically, when the Fed raises fast and furiously, it takes 502 days for the market to get back to even.

2. Connecting the dots, reading the tea leaves, we have 502 days to buy equities on sale. Whoo-hoo.

3. Now is the time for plant seed corn; now is the time to aggressively accumulate US equities.

4. For those who understand bonds and fixed income, they are going to make a lot of money. I'm not in that group. I don't understand bonds.

5. Cliche: it's not "timing the market," "it's time in the market."

6. I have a 40-year horizon. I started investing in 1984. 2022 - 1984 = 38 years and that is still less than my current 40-year horizon. 

Miscellaneous, current market:

1. The first or second stock I ever bought was BNI (or whatever it was at the time). When BRK acquired BNI, I started accumulating UNP. UNP remains my third largest holding (?). 

2. With regard to rails, the deal to prevent a rail strike is going to be seen as a life-altering event (LAE). The unions and the blue collars did very, very well, but management, CEOs, and investors made a killing. This is quite unbelievable what transpired for investors. 

3. A reader linked this article: EOG, Permian Resources upgraded to overweight at JP Morgan. My reply:

I recently blogged on new company Permian Resources.

Haven’t bought yet.

I started accumulating EOG some years ago. Got “top heavy” and at same time had that huge novel post on Devon and haven’t looked back. Most of my energy additions since have been Devon since.

4. I will wait to see PR's dividend philosophy before establishing a position. PR might replace MNRL in my portfolio. If not, maybe PXD or APA, although I personally don't like PXD. But more likely will sell MRNL after acquisition and buy  DVN.

5. Did you all see that APA doubled its revenue? 

We'll quit here for now. But that rail deal was incredible.

When I saw the deal, I recollected this:

Cataclysmic losses / outsized opportunities: link here.


The "rail deal" was generational. I'm thrilled.

Director's Cut -- July, 2022, Data

Director's Cuts are tracked here.

July, 2022, data posted

Wells offline for operational purposes tracked here

North Dakota oil production: still exceeds one million bopd.  A "Goldilocks" oil patch.

Rigs and wells:

  • rigs:
    • today: 44
    • August: 46
    • July: 45
    • June: 42
    • May: 40
    • April: 38
  • permitted:
    • August: 102
    • July: 74
    • June: 77
    • May: 68
    • April: 55
  • completed:
    • August: 66
    • July: 74
    • June: 27
    • May: 53
    • April: 33
  • inactive:
    • July: 1,655
    • June: 1,750
    • May: 2,448
    • April: 1,909
  • DUCs
    • July: 465
    • June: 483
    • May: 496
    • April: 494
  • producing:
    • July: 17,369
    • June: 17,298
    • May: 16,953
    • April: 16,896
    • May to April: 0.3% increase in number of producing wells.

Covid-19 Update -- September 15, 2022

Link here.

A most unusual graphic.


This is all lower respiratory disease deaths:

  • unspecified
  • influenza ("seasonal flu")
  • Covid-19

Even before Covid-19 identified, "seasonal flu" was declining and then completely disappeared. 

Too early to tell what we will see in "flu season" this year -- week 50 through week 10 -- but right now, current "percent of all deaths due to PIC" is at baseline of 2018, two years before Covid-19. But the percentage will increase during "flu season."

Amazon's Largest Warehouse Ever -- September 15, 2022

Warehouses east of Los Angeles: link here.

Amazon's biggest warehouse ever: Orange County Register.

  • 4.1 million square feet
  • Amazon already has 17.1 million square feet of warehousing in southern California
  • largest warehouse, not just in California, or the US, but the largest in the entire world.

Best look: Planetizen.

Twice as big as Downtown L.A.’s tallest skyscraper and bigger than Disney’s California Adventure Park with room to spare, the largest Amazon warehouse in the world is under construction in Southern California’s Inland Empire. 
The largest Amazon warehouse ever—a 4.1 million-square-foot, 97-foot-tall building planned for dairy lands in Ontario, California—is under construction, according to an article by Jeff Collins for the Orange County Register [paywall].

Juggling Amazon Sites -- Another Non-Story -- September 15, 2022

Amazon's largest warehouse ever: link here. Also, here.

Amazon sites, closed, delayed, canceled.

Another non-story.

Of the twenty-one Amazon sites closed:

  • twenty were delivery centers; only one was a fulfillment center;
  • essentially optimization of routes

Of the twenty-one Amazon sites canceled, eleven were fulfillment centers:

  • two were closed due to public protest: New Hampshire.
  • two in Texas;
  • only one in California; only one in Florida
  • none on East Coast north of the Carolinas (except those two canceled due to public protest)

Delayed sites: so, who cares?

The list:

  • Closed (21):
    • fulfillment centers: one -- Louisville, KY
    • delivery stations: twenty
  • Canceled (21):
    • fulfillment centers: eleven
      • Wisconsin -- two
      • Texas -- two
      • New Hampshire -- two (both due to public protests)
      • North Carolina -- one
      • Missouri -- one
      • lllinois -- one
      • Florida -- one
      • California -- one
    • delivery stations: ten
  • Delayed (27):
    • fulfillment centers: twelve
      • Iowa -- one
      • Louisiana -- one
      • Nebraska -- one
      • New York -- one
      • Ohio -- two
      • South Dakota -- one
      • Tennessee -- two
      • Texas -- one
      • Washington state -- two
    • delivery centers: fifteen

One Well Coming Off Confidential List Today -- September 15, 2022

Robust: the military-industrial complex. Link here.

*************************************
Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 44.

WTI: $86.57. Down 2% after rail strike averted.

Natural gas: $$8.529. Down 6%. Ditto.

Friday, September 16, 2022: 26 for the month, 76 for the quarter, 415 for the year

  • 29783, conf, Zavanna, Galloway 18-30-3TFH,
  • 29293, conf, Slawson, Vixen Federal 3-19-30H,

Thursday, September 15, 2022: 24 for the month, 74 for the quarter, 413 for the year

  • 29294, conf, Slawson, Vixen Federal 6-19-30TFH,

RBN Energy: how sky-high natural gas prices affect international gas markets

With international gas prices ranging somewhere between ridiculous and ludicrous since last fall, the entire global trade of LNG is going through an unprecedented period of change as gas-consuming nations try to cope with the current situation and seek protection from tight supplies and high prices in the future. The problems of Europe in securing supplies for the imminent winter have been well documented here and elsewhere in the trade press. In addition to being a major struggle for consumers and a headwind to economic development, there are also numerous, less-obvious consequences of the tectonic shifts in gas fundamentals, including countries’ individual plans for long-term energy supplies, potential tax-related issues, the contractual structures used to transact LNG, and even the assessments of the commodity price itself. These issues aren’t new and, in many cases, have been discussed for years. What’s changed is that extremely high prices have thrown into sharp relief any inefficiency or risk that exposes market participants. In today’s RBN blog, we consider the impact of high global gas prices on countries in Asia and Europe and how pricing mechanisms might be affected.

What Every Brit Alive Today Has Been Preparing For His/Her Entire Live -- September 15, 2022

Link here.

Suggestions:

  • should have hired "Disney" to lay out queue route;
  • should have staged at least a dozen sites; closed casket; no one would know

What We Will Be Talking About Thursday -- September 15, 2022

First things first:

Atlantic storm:

  • tropical storm east of Puerto Rico slow to organize; Google winds;

Why oil surged, September 14, 2022; Motley Fool

  • weekly EIA build: only 2.4 million bbls despite SPR release of 8 million bbls
  • OPEC falling short of production quotas
  • Biden administration talking about refilling SPR
  • demand still outpacing supply;

Apache Oil: doubles dividend (haven't found story yet)

  • dividend announcement: link here; go to September 14, 2022.
  • record date: 10/21/22; paydate: 11/22/22
  • was 12.5 cents; now 25 cents;

Shell:

Rail strike:

Germany: 41% coal --


Japan
:

T:

  • the absurdity: ATT's yield is higher than its p/e; link;
  • yield: 7.87%
  • p/e: 6.7

Californians moving to Texas:

Football:


Dallas crocs: