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Thursday, September 8, 2022

Laser-Focused On Dividends -- WMB -- September 8, 2022

Link here.


The Williams Companies (WMB).

Williams Companies is a major player in the natural gas pipeline. Williams controls pipelines for natural gas, natural gas liquids, and oil gathering, in a network stretching from the Pacific Northwest, through the Rockies to the Gulf Coast, and across the South to the Mid-Atlantic. Williams’ core business is the processing and transport of natural gas, with crude oil and energy generation as secondary operations. The company’s footprint is huge – it handles almost one-third of all natural gas use in the US, both residential and commercial.

The firm’s natural gas business has brought strong results in revenues and earnings. In the most recent quarter, 2Q22, showed total revenues of $2.49 billion, up 9% year-over-year from the $2.28 billion reported in the year-ago quarter. The adjusted net income of $484 million led to an adjusted diluted EPS of 40 cents. This EPS was up 48% y/y, and came in well above the 37 cent forecast.

The rising price of natural gas and the solid financial results have given the company's stock a boost – and while the broader markets are down year-to-date, WMB shares are up 26%.

The company has also been paying out a regular dividend, and in the most recent declaration, in July for a September 26 payout, management set the payment at 42.5 cents. This marked the third quarter in a row at this level. The dividend annualizes to $1.70 and yields 5.3%. Even better, Williams has a history of keeping reliable dividend payments – never missing a quarter – going back to 1989.

This stock has attracted the attention of Justin Jenkins, a 5-star analyst from Raymond James, who writes of WMB: “The Williams Companies’ (WMB) attractive mix of core business stability and operating leverage via G&P, marketing, production, and project execution is still under-appreciated. WMB's large cap, C-Corp., and demand-pull natural gas-focused characteristics (and supply-push tailwinds in several G&P regions and the Deepwater) position it well for both the short- and long-term, in our view. Potential buybacks and JV optimization offers additional catalysts throughout the year, bolstering an anticipated premium valuation.”

Jenkins goes on to give WMB shares a Strong Buy rating, and his $42 price target implies a 31% upside for the next 12 months. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.    

Streaming Wars -- Random Note -- September 8, 2022

Before we get started, talk sports television tomorrow morning is going to be incredible. Because Josh Allen has been incredible tonight in the opening NFL game, the Buffalo Bills vs the Los Angeles Raiders.

Now back to the streaming wars.

It appears the streaming war(s) is/are coming down to Hulu Live vs YouTube TV. My brother-in-law who knows this stuff better than I do went with YouTube TV.

I went with Hulu.

So, I was curious. Google search: streaming wars.

From digitaltrends.com, June 14, 2022, Phil Nickinson: Hulu Live vs YouTube TV. 

The lede:

When it comes to the best streaming services in the U.S., two stand out.

And that makes sense because Hulu With Live TV and YouTube TV are the most popular live TV streaming services in the United States.

How popular, you ask? 

Hulu with Live TV had some 4.1 million paid subscribers as of April 2, 2022. 

YouTube TV — well, we don’t actually know how many subscribers it has. Google last gave an official update of “more than 3 million” in October 2020. But it hasn’t given us any new numbers since then.No matter. 

Both YouTube TV and Hulu With Live TV are great options. They have similar prices, relatively similar plans, and pretty much work the same way. Which, then, is the right one for you? We can help.

Go to the link to see who "wins."

Another review looking at all the streaming options, not just the above two: at sportsnaut.com.

********************************
Original Content

Of all the choices out there, it then appears to come down to Hulu (Disney) vs YouTube TV (Google).

Most interesting: of all the choices out there, only one major player has no original content -- Google's YouTube TV.

From a purely business decision that makes sense. Original content is incredibly expensive and Google shareholders should be happy that Google does not unnecessarily spend money on original content. 

Consumers certainly don't need any more original content, but from my perspective, not providing original content seems to make you nothing more than another Pluto TV. Sure, YouTube TV is a really, really, really, good Pluto TV but without original content, I don't see YouTube TV as a top tier player. 

Hong Kong:Hulu::Portland:YouTube.

********************************
The Whole Enchilada

For me it's hard to beat this "homemade" bundle:

  • Hulu Live
  • Amazon Fire Stick (Amazon Prime Video)
  • Apple TV

I have to give my wife credit for finding/choosing Hulu. It really is awesome.

I added Amazon Prime Video / Amazon Fire Stick -- it seems to be a no brainer.

Apple TV: I seldom watch it but at $4.99 / month, it's a bargain that's not even worth debating.

At the "Investor's" page linked above:

****************************
Amazon Chase Rewards

Speaking of Amazon Prime Video.

Comes "free" with Amazon Prime.

My "main" credit card is the Chase Amazon Prime Visa card. 

I like to think that I only purchase items with my Chase Amazon Prime Visa card that I would purchase no matter what card I was using or whether I paid with cash or a credit card. If that's accurate, then 99% of my CAP Visa card purchases would have been made regardless of how I pay for the purchases.

To date, I've earned, in dollars, more than twice what the subscription for Amazon Prime costs me, if that makes sense.

And, I'm sure, there are even better "cash-back" cards out there, but I'm not complaining.

Laser-Focused On Dividends -- EPD -- September 8, 2022

Link here.

Enterprise Products Partners (EPD)

The first stock we’ll look at, Enterprise Products, is a midstream company in the energy industry. Its business is moving product, getting the crude oil, the natural gas, and the natural gas liquids pulled out of the ground by producers from the well heads and into the transport network of pipelines and transfer terminals and the storage infrastructure of tank farms and refineries.

Enterprise’s assets include a wide-ranging network of pipelines and storage sites, stretching from Appalachian gas fields of Pennsylvania, the Great Lakes region, the Southeast, and the Rocky Mountains, into Texas and the Gulf Coast region, where there are processing facilities, storage farms, refineries, and import/export terminals. It’s large scale business, and Enterprise commands a market cap of more than $55 billion.

More importantly than its business network or company size, Enterprise has seen its shares gain in this year’s volatile trading, with a year-to-date net increase of 27%.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.   

No New Permits; Five Permits Canceled; Two Permits Renewed; Three DUCs Reported As Completed -- September 8, 2022

Natural gas: could be really, really tight this winter -- Cheniere.  Link to Julianne Geiger.

China: drought affecting hydroelectricity. Link to Haley Zaremba.

ISO NE: wind providing 0.35% of total electricity supply. Link here.

  • net imports: 11%
  • hydro: 7%

***************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 43.

WTI: $83.54.

Natural gas: $7.915.

No new permits.

Two permits renewed:

  • Slawson: two Nightmaker permits in Mountrail County.

Five permits canceled:

  • Oasis: five Allen permits in McKenzie County.

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 38566, 686, Hunt, Halliday 145-93-15-22H-5,
  • 38568, 1,017, Hunt, Quill 145-93-10-3H 4,
  • 36093, 2,144, XTO, Krieger 42C-17C,

The Ovintiv Wisness State / Anderso Federal Wells In Westberg

A four-well and a three well pad, adjacent to each other. 

The wells:

  • 38547, drl/A, Ovintiv, Wisness State 152-96-16-21-21H, Westberg, no production data,t-- cum 102K 7/22; cum 140K 11/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-2022311652016538235197586375649145
BAKKEN6-2022301736117362216735900658802151
BAKKEN5-2022282461524705281175948459271150
BAKKEN4-2022221677316627213143065630211399
BAKKEN3-20223126335260652993145207451490
  • 38548, drl/A, Ovintiv, Wisness State 152-96-16-21-6H, Westberg, t-- cum 41K 11/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20223016671650832777077700
BAKKEN10-2022311637163689412757127570
BAKKEN9-2022302122214311031358113111470
BAKKEN8-20223122402218133015917159170
BAKKEN7-202231280528231762193651931137
BAKKEN6-202230374237502385230542297459
BAKKEN5-202228592659853995259992590666
BAKKEN4-2022225524554532722144621135279
BAKKEN3-2022301542015262798842192421380
  • 38546, drl/A, Ovintiv, Wisness State 152-96-16-21-5H, Westberg, t-- cum 185K 11/22;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20223079587933815857826578260
BAKKEN10-202231957496221042774951749510
BAKKEN9-20223014619147881168089221861353086
BAKKEN8-2022311620416037159021127761127760
BAKKEN7-202231197201982418146119453119117228
BAKKEN6-202230251312507021836117176116772299
BAKKEN5-2022303092531073233369281392481234
BAKKEN4-2022222244022272165695085950121662
BAKKEN3-20223138030376413000676498763990
  • 38545, drl/A, Ovintiv, Wisness State 152-96-16-21-14H, Westberg, no production data, t-- cum 170K 11/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20223050135137707848523485230
BAKKEN10-20223110291103351259190252902520
BAKKEN9-20223015397155281350676736740822654
BAKKEN8-20223115610154481612686953869530
BAKKEN7-2022311896219095197909432694061180
BAKKEN6-202230259412584024150103773103416265
BAKKEN5-2022282898529085243567428274017187
BAKKEN4-2022231948119310157723520134690459
BAKKEN3-20223030609302962784550805507390
  • 38955, drl/A, Ovintiv, Wisness State 152-96-16-21-16H, Westberg, no production data,
  • 38956, drl, Ovintiv, Anderson Federal 152-96-9-13H, Westberg, no production data,
  • 38954, drl, Ovintiv, Anderson Federal 152-96-9-4-5H, Westberg, no production data,

The Hess An-Norby Wells In Antelope Oil Field

The wells:

  • 38178, drl/A,  Hess, AN-Norby-152-94-0409H-9, Antelope, t-- cum 180K 7/22:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH7-202231134771347460153172731531161
SANISH6-202230183751838588524371343338329
SANISH5-202229214482144494604087440027795
SANISH4-20222920229202396960303323024152
SANISH3-2022312664426688961040989399111028
SANISH2-20222834470344421824844007422471702
SANISH1-202231419934189920999546803643218183
SANISH12-2021228852855163679667160782
  • 38179, AL/A, Hess, AN-Norby-152-94-0409H-8, Antelope, t--; cum 71K 7/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH7-202231141311410693873884038599198
SANISH1-202231421094213717402625653519227295
SANISH12-2021714400142481087024030180435927
  •  38180, AL/a, Hess, AN-Norby-152-94-0409H-7, Antelope, t--; cum 75K 7/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH7-202231146841466970673573135510182
SANISH1-202231375893771415102379071800919858
SANISH12-2021102236822132912154650054650


38177,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH8-202231154291543374233376133114605
SANISH7-202231177571773682813969639450202
SANISH6-202230209932098391994420443824333
SANISH5-202229199721998382452694226384524
SANISH4-20222621893219318198337713366859
SANISH3-20223135581355481415156129546531407
SANISH2-20222825177251481028835956345181390
SANISH1-202230276712758912670311751960611535

38176,

The well of interest to the west:

  • 17609, IA/504, Hess, An-Norby-152-94-0409H-1, Antelope, t, 1/09; cum 388K 7/21;

A WPX Edward Flies Away Trending Toward 600K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- September 8, 2022

The WPX Edward Flies Away wells are tracked here. See this post and follow the links from there.

This well is trending toward 600K bbls crude oil cumulative:

  • 28134, 824, WPX, Edward Flies Away 7-8-9HY, Van Hook, t4/15; cum 580K 7/22; recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-2022312678270112852597241650
BAKKEN6-202230303831341476340932490
BAKKEN5-202231359335252077378336171
BAKKEN4-2022302996299221502939271470
BAKKEN3-202231340733992174335731920
BAKKEN2-202228288028622174317930310
BAKKEN1-202231305230581955334031790
BAKKEN12-202131304630272194359234310
BAKKEN11-202130310132682030367535160
BAKKEN10-202131326031262056317130070
BAKKEN9-202130181818291801165715100
BAKKEN8-202131263926141977200718430
BAKKEN7-202131240024331092178616220
BAKKEN6-20212322162193184516781218106
BAKKEN5-202131293828882794226717890
BAKKEN4-202130278029092615219117350
BAKKEN3-2021313048293827852308172197
BAKKEN2-20212829212925264122121546205
BAKKEN1-20213131063111251823511662192
BAKKEN12-20203132553239271824651771181
BAKKEN11-20203032633297276624701820142

For Investors -- Devon -- Barchart -- Laser-Focused On Dividends -- September 8, 2022

Link here.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- September 8, 2022

Link here.

Yesterday, from the API:

Today, the API weekly petroleum data:

  • a build of 3.645 million bbls;
  • from the SPR, released: 7.5 million bbls

Today, from the EIA:

  • US crude oil increaseed by a whopping 8.8 million bbs (same ballpark as that amount releaseed from SPR)
  • US crude oil in storage now totals 427.2 million bbls, 3% below the five-year average
    • in other words, just staying even with record amounts of oil released from the SPR
    • DOE knew last spring just how bad things were going to get when it made decision
  • US imports ... yawn ..
  • US refiners are operating at 90.9% of their operable capacity; a recent low; trending lower;
  • distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.1 million bbls; still 23% below their five-year average;
  • jet fuel supplied down 0.4%
  • gasoline demand to be reported later this afternoon
  • WTI: up 1.71%; up $1.40 after the report; trading at $83.34
  • natural gas: still just below $8.00

Gasoline: below $3.00 / gallon in north Texas; at $3.04 locally earlier this morning

  • now looks to be $2.99 / gallon

Tickers:

  • DVN: up
  • MNRL: back to flat after dropping a bit
  • CVX: up slightly; practically flat
  • SRE: after yeesterday's 52-week high; flat
  • OKE: up 1.4% today

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Thursday Morning -- September 8, 2022

Panic: "everybody" now panicked that the Fed will raise another 75 basis points. Say what? Jay Powell said that in his eight-minute speech at Jackson Hole a few weeks ago. Did folks miss that?

Panic: apparently California is coming close to running out of diesel. We're laughing but California trucks -- like trucks everywhere -- still run on diesel. Apparently, "everyone" took the state governor's advice last year and bought diesel generators. Irony.

Panic: in the US DOE. Great Britain will lift the fracking ban.

Panic: most expensive new Apple Watch already on six- to seven-week delay if ordered now. No one saw this coming. Except Apple. Tim Cook opened the "big event" with the Apple Watch .... not the iPhone. In fact, in the super slick presentation, the Apple Watch had pride of place. Meanwhile, the iPhone followed not only the Apple Watch but also the Air Pods Pro. Say what?

Panic: again, in the office of the US DOE. SLB sees North American oil activity growing faster than expected. I'll believe it when I start seeing increased dividends reflect that optimism. All of  sudden, announcements of quarterly dividend increases have disappeared.

******************************
Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

WTI: $82.45. It's a fool's errand to predict the price of oil. GS has the price of WTI at $125 before the end of the year.

Natural gas: $7.807.

Thursday, September 8, 2022: 11 for the month, 61 for the quarter, 400 for the year. Great production; the Whiting Miller wells are followed here:

  • 37413, conf, Whiting, Miller 31-15H,  Dollar Joe, t--; cum 77K 7/22;
  • 37412, conf, Whiting, Miller 31-15-3H, Dollar Joe, t--; cum 110K 7/22;
  • 37411, conf, Whiting, Miller 31-15-2H, Dollar Joe, t--; cum 76K 7/22;

RBN Energy: stars aligning as Gulf Coast ethylene-to-alkylate project advances.

The thinking behind Next Wave Energy Partners’ late-2019 decision to build a first-of-its-kind ethylene-to-alkylate plant was that a combination of NGL production growth and new ethylene supply — plus increasing demand for alkylate, an octane-boosting gasoline blendstock — would be a win-win-win for ethylene producers, refiners and Next Wave itself. Now, with construction of the plant along the Houston Ship Channel approaching the homestretch, things are shaking out very much as the company had anticipated — even better, in fact. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the progress being made on Next Wave’s Project Traveler plant and the market forces validating the company’s final investment decision (FID).

Who among us didn’t make plans in late 2019 and early 2020 that didn’t pan out. Trips to the beach, to the mountains, to Europe. Family get-togethers and weddings. Plans to start new businesses, change jobs or retire. No, COVID reared its ugly head, and wreaked all kinds of havoc (beyond the obvious and sad human toll). The stock market crashed, and so did crude oil prices. Demand for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel tanked, and E&Ps, refiners and petrochemical companies tore up and threw out their 2020 and 2021 playbooks. More shocks followed, especially Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which sent crude oil, natural gas and refined-product prices skyward and helped spur a round of inflation the likes of which we haven’t seen since the 1970s. And now there’s talk of a recession too.

After all the shocks and dislocations of the past two-and-a-half years, however, at least one of the plans made in the months before COVID did come to pass. Or, to put it more accurately, the project we’ll discuss in today’s blog is well on its way to becoming a reality, and the late-2019 rationale behind its owner's FID hasn’t just held up, it’s proved to be prescient.

We first looked at Next Wave’s plan for a 28-Mb/d ethylene-to-alkylate plant in January 2020 (soon after the company took FID), we began with a review of the many factors that, when considered collectively, led almost inevitably to Project Traveler’s fruition. These factors fall into three buckets:

  • Trends in the market. These include (1) rising U.S. NGL production; (2) more Gulf Coast fractionators to separate out the purity products; (3) more ethane-only steam crackers to make more ethylene and other petrochemicals; (4) higher U.S. and international ethylene production and lower ethylene prices; and (5) low and relatively stable U.S. butane prices (butane is a low-cost but high-RVP gasoline blend component).
  • The need for octane. Refiners and blenders develop gasoline recipes that satisfy the requirements of end-product specs like Reid vapor pressure (RVP) and octane ratings, with the latter reflecting the degree to which a fuel can be compressed before it self-ignites (causing “knocking”). High-octane, low-RVP and low-sulfur content are three of the most desirable qualities for gasoline blendstocks, and alkylate (typically produced as part of the crude oil refining process, and representing about 15% of the total gasoline pool) has perhaps the best combo of the three.
  • The desire to hedge. Ethylene producers — especially those without adjoining polyethylene (PE) and monoethylene glycol (MEG) plants — want to mitigate their exposure to ethylene commodity price risk, and one way to hedge their long position is to explore other potential markets. Alkylate consumers like refiners and blenders may, in turn, want to hedge their short positions by locking in at least a portion of their supply of the octane booster.

Sophia And I Will Go Out For Sushi This Weekend -- September 8, 2022

I think it was in the last twenty-four, maybe thirty-six, hours that a reader wrote me with regard to the California heat wave and grid. I noted in passing that "someone" was going to be spending a lot of money buying electricity. 

Now, at 3:18 a.m., I get an alert that SRE has declared its next quarterly dividend in line with previous. I was curious when SRE last raised its dividend. 

I almost missed it but in the process of looking for SRE's dividend history, I happened to see the closing price of SRE today. I about fell off my chair. Are you kidding me? I looked for any news but there wasn't any except the aforementioned record electricity demand.

SRE jumped $5.66 / share today; up 3.37%, closed at $173.49. It's 52-week high was probably set today at $173.70.

Utilities aren't supposed to do this. LOL. 


I've always considered SRE a $124-share stock. 

I guess I can take Sophia out for sushi after all this weekend. I just told her I couldn't afford sushi any more. She said just pay for it on my credit card. Seriously, she thought that once you "bought" a credit card, it was all paid for. Wow. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.