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Moon River
Moon River
One of the words I recently learned on Duolingo: desayuno.
Not sure how I remember that word but the Spanish word for lunch reminds me of "a morsel": el almuerzo.
Almuerzo. A morsel.
Wednesday, September 7, 2022
Is Tonight A Good Night For Cher? September 7, 2022
Link here.
Cher, Top Ten, Cher
Six decades. Age is just a number.
The best thing she never did: rap.
Well, at least none to which I've listened. And don't try to convince me otherwise.
These Are Not Mutually Exclusive -- September 7, 2022
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Amazon
I absolutely love Amazon.
We live in an urban area that should have everything we might want. For the past few weeks I've been looking for a particular non-perishable food item and can't find it anywhere in our local grocery stores: Walmart, to Target, to regional grocery stores.
I give/gave up.
Went to Amazon. Found inexhaustible number of choices. Not only did I order but I set up a subscription and Amazon will ship on a regular basis.
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Telstar -- The Tornados
By the way, Apple introduced an incredibly interesting new feature for the next iteration of its iPhone.
Appears All CLR Whitman Wells In Oakdale Oil Field Have Been Completed; Showing Early Production -- September 7, 2022
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed, per daily activity report today: the Whitman wells are tracked here.
- 38499, 2,432, CLR, Whitman FIU 5-34H, Oakdale, minimal production;
- 38500, 1,917, CLR, Whitman FIU 6-34H2, Oakdale, minimal production;
- 38613, 2,070, CLR, Whitmen FIU 4-34H1, Oakdale, minimal production;
Status of the other Whitman wells:
- 20212: off line since 4/22; cum 1.059338 million bbls as of 3/22: off line while neighboring wells are/were fracked;
- 38494: status - drl; appears to have been drilled to depth; may have been fracked;
- 38495: status - drl; appears to have been drilled to depth; may have been fracked;
- 38496: status - drl; appears to have been drilled to depth; may have been fracked;
- 38497: status - drl; appears to have been drilled to depth; probably fracked; 2,230 bbls over seven days, 7/22;
- 38532: status - drl; appears to have been drilled to depth; probably fracked; 4,197 bbls over five days, 7/22;
- 38533: status - drl; appears to have been drilled to depth; probably fracked; 2,250 bbls over five days, 7/22;
Update On Blog's Status -- September 7, 2022
I will continue to post blogs as long as I can find time and find adequate wi-fi.
It is family day at our oldest granddaughter's out-of-state university this weekend. It's a big, big deal. It's very, very busy; that takes priority, and my blogging could be interrupted.
I will read e-mail but will reply only by exception.
Comments for the blog will not be moderated or posted.
By they way, with regard to comments, I generally post only those comments that have to do with the Bakken and those comments that "move the story along in a positive, educational manner."
Likewise, my tweets are kept to a minimum and only concern the Bakken.
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The Book Page
Link: Claremont Review of Books, Volume XXII, Number 3, Summer 2022, p. 27.
"The Road to Dubai: The United Arab Emirates' liberal authoritarianism," essay by Michael Anton.
Back in 2004 or thereabouts I had a close female friend who traveled with her husband once a year to vacation in Dubai. They were Americans, both Caucasian, he, enlisted in the US Army, she, Department of Defense civilian, both assigned to highest levels of government/military, and both stationed together, overseas, in a NATO country, not Turkey.
They absolutely loved Dubai. For all I know, they retired there. Despite their government / military positions, they had no trouble flying in and out of Abu Dhabi / Dubai for vacations.
I don't "know" Dubai or Abu Dhabi or the UAE.
Fascinating essay by Michael Anton. Linked here, behind a paywall unfortunately.
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Fantasyland
If I had all the money in the world, I would have a winter vacation home in Abu Dhabi (or would it be Dubai) and I would fly all my Scottish friends down every winter for a long vacation.
- Abu Dhabi
- Dubai
- Sharjah
- Ajman
- Ras Al Khaima
- Umm Al Quwain
- Fujairah
I hope my nephews spend some time there during their college years.
API Weekly Petroleum Data -- September 7, 2022
EIA weekly data to be released tomorrow.
Really Bad Math, Brian Williams
Today, the API weekly petroleum data:
- a build of 3.645 million bbls;
- from the SPR, released: 7.5 million bbls
I think most folks can do the math. I'm not sure about the White House press secretary, Brian Williams, or my two nephews.
I continue to accumulate shares in several US shale operators and three or four majors.
The wind is at their back.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment
site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or
relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have
read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
It's a fool's errand to predict the price of oil.
*****************
Really Bad Math
She was a NY Times editor, or some such position. Brian Williams ... well, what can one say?
No New Permits; Nine Permits Renewed; Five Permits Canceled; CLR Reports Three Big DUCs -- September 7, 2022
Active rigs: 44.
WTI: $81.92.
Natural gas: $7.862
No new permits.
Nine permits renewed:
- Whiting: four Holmberg permits, Mountrail County; three Link permits, McKenzie County; one USA Federal permit, McKenzie County; and, one Pronghorn State Federal permit, Billings County.
Five permits canceled:
- Hess: five SC-Bingeman permits, Williams County.
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed: the Whitman wells are tracked here.
- 38499, 2,432, CLR, Whitman FIU 5-34H, Oakdale, minimal production;
- 38500, 1,917, CLR, Whitman FIU 6-34H2, Oakdale, minimal production;
- 38613, 2,070, CLR, Whitmen FIU 4-34H1, Oakdale, minimal production;
The Grid -- A Tale Of Two States -- September 7, 2022
Texas:
- ERCOT breaks power demand record for 11th time this summer -- July 20, 2022
- no rolling brownouts; no blackouts (needs to be fact-checked); the grid kept on trucking this summer
- for the first time in Texas' grid history, demand exceeded 80,000 MW for a moment shortly after 4:30 p.m., Wednesday, July 20, 2022 -- 80,000 MW
- net summer capacity: 128,947 MW -- link here; 65% more than California's net summer capacity
- capacity / record demand = 80,000 / 128,947 = 62%
- population: 30 million
- 270,000 square miles -- almost 65% larger than California; much longer distances to carry the grid;
California:
- limited blackouts, last night, Tuesday evening, September 7, 2022
- must have been a hundred-thousand MW if Texas set a record at 80,000 MW
- LOL: California's record that caused blackouts and a need to curtail at EV charging -- 52,061 MW
- are you kidding me?
- a state with one of the highest state income taxes, property taxes, sales taxes, and utility fees and still couldn't meet demand for 52,061 MW
- Texas: no state income tax; one of the lowest electric rates in the country (deregulated); and still able to meet demand for 80,000 MW -- 54% greater than California's demand.
- link: https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2022/09/07/california-experiences-limited-blackouts-as-power-demand-hits-record/.
- net summer capacity: 78,055 MW -- link here.
- capacity / record demand = 52,061 / 78,055 = 67%
- population: at 40 million, a user base 33% greater than that of Texas (great fee base)
- there is nothing preventing California from installing the same capacity and the same resource mix as Texas
- size: 165,000 square miles
- one has to ask: what has the state been doing all these years?
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
On a note like this, fact checking is essential. I'll have Sophia do that when she gets home from school.
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Call Center Calls
I think I know where my call center calls are coming from.
APPLE EVENT HAS JUST STARTED
AAPL: 155.10 up 57 cents for the day just as the Apple Event begins.
Begins with the Apple Watch.
- temperature sensor
- marketing: menstrual cycles
- automobile crash detection
There seems to be a trend here when compared to the BlackBerry and the really old Nokia phones.
Low power mode: gives the battery watch up to 36 hours life.
A long, long time spent on the Apple Watch.
Next Air Pods.
Third, iPhones.
- eSIM: getting rid of the "physical" SIM cards.
- the satellite connection in isolated areas is amazing for emergency uses; this is really, really incredible; every emergency provider west of the Mississippi River is going to demand one of these things
- in use with "Find Me" it's incredible; Apple is going to provide this service for first two years free.
- price points amazing.
AAPL: immediately after presentation, $155.14. Pretty much unchanged.
SHD Looking To Put Fourteen Wells Under The Lake, Van Hook -- September 7, 2022
This is a case, not a permit:
- 29604, SHD Oil & Gas, LLC, Van Hook and/or Deep Water Creek
Bay-Bakken, establish a 4160-acre unit, sections 15/16/17/18/19/20 and the
N/2 of section 21-150-91; eight wells; McLean, Dunn counties. Eight wells in 7.5 sections = 1.07 sections or 682 acres.
The other sites/permits/wells, on section 18:
- 33714, conf, Spotted Hawk Development, Zeta 21-18H, Van Hook,
- 33715, conf, Spotted Hawk Development, Poseidon 21-18H, Van Hook,
- 33716, conf, Spotted Hawk Development, Narcissus 21-18H, Van Hook,
- 33717, conf, Spotted Hawk Development, Cheetah 21-18H, Van Hook,
- 33718, conf, Spotted Hawk Development, Demeteer 21-18H, Van Hook,
- 33719, conf, Spotted Hawk Development, Delta 21-18H, Van Hook,
For The Archives -- Shell, XOM, NAM -- Natural Gas -- Europe -- September 7, 2022
This interests me not, but it seems important for the archives.
LONDON (Reuters) - Shell and Exxon Mobil have put up for sale one of Europe's largest and oldest natural gas production ventures, betting on soaring energy prices amid tensions with Russia to attract buyers.
The top two Western energy giants could raise over $1 billion from the sale of the 50-50 NAM joint venture in the Netherlands, two industry sources said.
It would be part of both companies' efforts to shed ageing assets that are no longer central to their operations.
Shell and Exxon recently launched the sale process for NAM’s offshore gas operations, which include dozens of fields and around 20 offshore platforms, as well as a network of pipelines and three processing plants.
NAM started producing natural gas in 1963 following the discovery of the giant Groningen field and has been a major source of gas for the Netherlands and Europe for decades.
Its output has nevertheless been in a steady decline since 2014 and is set to fall further in the coming years after the Dutch government decided to shut Groningen in order to limit seismic risk in the region. The field is expected to shut down in 2023 or 2024 but its life could be extended.
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The Book Page
Stephen King.
All 75 books.
Ranked.
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Never Too Old
Sterling Lord.
Literary agent.
Among other triumphs worked for years to find a publisher for Jack Kerouac’s On the Road, has died. He had just turned 102.
From the linked article at The Guardian:
Sterling Lord, who started his own agency in 1952 and later merged with a rival to form Sterling Lord Literistic, was a failed magazine publisher who became, almost surely, the longest-serving agent in the book business. He stayed with the company he founded until he was nearly 100 – then decided to launch a new one.
He was an early ambassador for a revolutionary cultural movement: the Beats. He endured the initial unwillingness of publishers to take on Kerouac’s unorthodox work and was later the agent for the poet and playwright Amiri Baraka, novelist Ken Kesey and poet and City Lights bookstore owner Lawrence Ferlinghetti.
Thanks to his friendship with Theodore Geisel, better known as Dr Seuss, Lord helped launch Stan and Jan Berenstain’s multimillion-selling Berenstain Bears books. He found a publisher for Nicholas Pileggi’s mob story Wiseguy and helped arrange the deal for its celebrated film adaptation, Goodfellas.
In the early 1960s, Viking asked Lord to get a blurb from Kerouac for One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest, Kesey’s first and most famous novel. Kerouac declined but Lord ended up representing Kesey.
He represented the former US defense secretary Robert McNamara and John Sirica, the judge of Watergate fame, and worked with Jackie Kennedy during her time as an editor with Doubleday and Viking. Some of the great US sports books of the 20th century, from North Dallas Forty to Secretariat, were written by Lord clients.
Laser-Focused On Dividends -- September 7, 2022
I'm sure readers are aware of my "new" blog series -- "laser-focused on dividends."
I started that series about ten days ago.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment
site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or
relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have
read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
A Two-Fer -- Dobbs -- September 7, 2022
This is a two-fer.
The other day I had a long post regarding the 60s: Vietnam, the pill, and civil rights movement. Of the three I opined "the pill" had a far bigger impact and that's saying a lot considering how big an impact the civil rights movement and Vietnam had.
Hold that thought.
Second, I've opined often that the mid-terms are going to be much closer than some pundits think.
Hold that thought.
Off The Net -- September 7, 2022
I will post as much as ever if I find pockets of time and adequate wi-fi, but nothing else. A mini-vacation.
I won't be replying to e-mail.
Comments will not be moderated or posted.
Apple Day -- September 7, 2022
Wow, wow, wow! Wednesday! September 7, 2022!
APPLE Day.
Noon.
By the way, the weekly API petroleum data will be out today; the EIA data will be delayed until tomorrow due to the Monday holiday.
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Back to the Bakken
The Far Side: link here.
WTI: $86.97.
Natural gas: $7.989. US natural gas is effectively being banned from export. Not all of it, just enough. Absolutely fascinating.
Active rigs: 43.
Wednesday, September 7, 2022: 8 for the month, 58 for the quarter, 397 for the year
- 38006, conf, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2932H-5, Capa, t--; cum 61K 7/22;
- 37371, conf, Petro-Hunt, Jorgenson 158-94-2B-11-1HS, East Tioga,
RBN Energy: really? We need more oil? Is Alaskan crude oil production on the verge of bouncing back?
The renewed focus on energy security — and the acknowledgment that the world will continue to rely on hydrocarbons for decades to come — may be breathing new life into an often-overlooked U.S. production area: Alaska’s North Slope. The state’s crude oil output is down to its lowest level since before the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) came online in 1977. But now federal regulators are moving toward final approval for ConocoPhillips’s $8 billion Willow project in the National Petroleum Reserve, and Australia’s Santos Ltd. and Spain’s Repsol have taken a final investment decision (FID) on the $2.6 billion first phase of their Pikka project between Willow and Prudhoe Bay. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss recent hydrocarbon-related developments in America’s Last Frontier.
It’s been a tough few years — some would say decades — for producers in the 49th state. Back in the 1970s and ’80s, Alaska was seen as the next big thing for U.S. crude oil production. With the completion of the 800-mile TAPS pipeline from Prudhoe Bay to Valdez, AK, in 1977, Alaska North Slope (ANS) production took off, and by 1988, when Alaska’s output peaked at more than 2 MMb/d, the state not only accounted for one-quarter of total U.S. crude oil output (blue layer in Figure 1), but it also briefly knocked Texas off its perch as the #1 oil-producing state. Alaskan oil didn’t give the U.S. “energy independence” –– a rallying cry in the Ford, Carter and Reagan years –– but it sure helped.
Thinking About Putin Building A Natural Gas Pipeline From Eastern Europe To Southeastern China -- Putting That Thought Into Perspectiive -- September 7, 2022
Due to lack of interest by New Englanders for Appalachian natural gas, what the US needs to do is build a pipeline from Pennsylvania to southern California, crossing two mountain ranges, including the Rocky Mountains and traversing a tectonic / seismically-active desert.
Yeah, that will work.
And, unlike the rest of the world, the US has an over-abundance of young men more than willing and able to build a pipeline because they are not fighting a war somewhere.
- “Power of Siberia” — as the portion located in Russia is called — began delivering natural gas to northern China in December 2019, according to Chinese state media.
- In China, the pipeline runs down the eastern side of the country, past the capital city of Beijing and down to Shanghai.
- State-owned energy companies, Russia’s Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corp., have been building the pipeline for about eight years.
A reminder: all that natural gas fed to Europe by "Nordstrom" (per White House press secretary) comes from eastern Russia, not Siberia, some thousand miles farther away on the other side of the Urals.
To keep things straight, Russia's European pipeline will get the "Nordstrom" moniker and the Russian Chinese pipeline will be known as the "Neiman-Marcus" natural gas pipeline.
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LNG -- US Exports
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Is Oil So Different?
More Than One Way To Effect An LNG Export Ban -- Clever -- September 7, 2022
The "Freeport" pales in comparison.
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Memories
We bought this Steiff lioness in Germany back in the late 1980s for our young daughters.
Kept in pristine condition all these years.
Now for the twins.
NE ISO -- Even By Their Standards, This Was Outrageous -- September 7, 2022
Updates
Later, 12:05 p.m. CT: link here.
Original Post
This was from yesterday morning, early yesterday morning before the daily commute even began.
Electricity in the autumn, in the morning, in New England, trending toward $500 / MWh.
By the way, last night, Tuesday, September 7, 2022, the governor of California implored EV owners not to charge their EVs overnight. Are you kidding me. Two percent of automobiles in California (at most, and I bet that's an exaggeration of what's really being driven) and the grid can't handle charging EVs overnight. And the state will ban all new gasoline car sales by 2035.
Speaking of which, whatever happened to that bullet train? For one thing, the federal government just gave California another $25 million for the project. Isn't this project going to cost something like $100 billion.
25 million / 75 billion = 0.03%. That is a rounding error.
I can't make this stuff up.
Just think: all that money sent to Ukraine could have bought a bullet train built by the Chinese by now.
Putin's War -- Random Observation -- September 7, 2022
In the past few weeks there have been stories in the mainstream media suggesting the Pentagon is concerned about America's depleting ammunition stockpiles.
Oh, give me a break.
If folks can't see what that's all about ... but that story is for another time.
Let's think about this. If the US is running short of ammunition due to one small war -- in just part of noe country, one can't even call it a regional war -- that has barely lasted six months-- what does that say about our preparedness for a prolonged two-front war in Korea and Europe? Just one link but this, too, is a story for another time.
But if NATO preparedness and the full might of the western military-industrial complex (US, UK, France, Germany just to name a few) is struggling ... any thought about Russia?
From Peter Zeihan today:
When I recorded the first part of today's video, it was in reaction to news that the Russians were having to turn to Iran of all places to help replace the drones lost in ongoing invasion of Ukraine. That Moscow needs to rely on Tehran for anything should be concerning, but perhaps not in the reasons that immediately come to mind. This move by the Russians does not point to the Iranians expanding membership to the Axis of Evil, or a tacit recognition of their technological superiority.
Rather, Russia's desperate.
Iran is not an up-and-coming manufacturing power. Nor have they broken some sort of secret code when it comes to drone and UAV technology. They're certainly not even producing anything comparable to Turkey's burgeoning military manufacturing sector. But unlike Turkey, Iranian drones are not dependent on Western technological imports. Or even foreign satellites. Whether or not they'll have the impact the Russians are looking for in Ukraine is debatable, but the state of the Russian production sector has never looked worse.
Which brings us back to the Axis of Evil. No, a skull-shaped headquarters has not emerged from some fetid swamp (but who can be sure what really goes on in New Jersey politics). Rather, the Russians have tapped another unlikely "partner" to help them combat their rapidly depleting ammunition stocks: North Korea. Moscow is set to begin purchases of artillery shells from Pyongyang, a country whose conventional military production capabilities have not been stress-tested since the cessation of armed conflict on the Korean peninsula nearly seven decades ago.
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From Yesterday, With No Follow-Up
Nevermind
ISO NE -- A Random Observation -- September 7, 2022
Resource mix in New England this morning.
Because demand is so low not much "hydro" is needed, keeping the cost for electricity down (at the moment) but look at the full resource mix picture, at perhaps the best time of the year -- along with spring -- with regard to the weather in New England:
- net imports: 17%
- renewables: 4%
Are you kidding me? Net imports at 17% and renewables at a paltry 4% when the wind should be blowing nicely this time of day.
Speaking of wind, the renewable mix: wind is barely winning the bronze medal.
- garbage, landfill: a whopping 53% of the renewable mix; this is third world stuff
- wood: at 33%, it gets the silver medal; again, third world stuff (Africa) except the UK is also big into wood, too -- something that when burned apparently does not emit CO2
- wind: 13%.
Let's see, 13% of 4% is 0.5%. Wind is contributing 0.5% of the total New England resource mix. How many billions and how many years have the folks in New England been ....
Is anyone paying attention?