The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 09/05/22

Monday, September 5, 2022

Parting Shots -- September 5, 2022

Math; I wonder how American students would do? Link here.

NASA: link here.

Plastic bags, link here:

Hate Her, LIke Her -- She's One Smart Cookie -- September 5, 2022

When state visits are made, a lot of "things" are discussed.

The second-highest ranking woman (pronoun she, her) in the US government (?) visited Taiwan on August 2, 2022.

Today, one month later:

This is a bigger deal than folks realize. Like her, hate her, whatever ... she's one smart cookie.

Just wait until "certain" Taiwanese citizens are allowed dual citizenship with the US.

Apple -- September 5, 2022

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news. At least that's what I've always been told.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Someone Has To Pay For All That Electricity -- September 5, 2022

California: I have not been able to verify this but there are unsubstantiated reports there are already blackouts in northern California.

California:

heatwave pushes state's power use to five-year high; link here;
from the linked article:

California declared a power grid emergency for Monday and expects all-time record demand on Tuesday, as a heatwave that has pushed temperatures past 110 degrees Fahrenheit in some areas threatens to stretch the state's electricity system to its limit.

The California Independent System Operator, which runs the energy grid, forecasts electricity use in the state to hit 48.9 GW Monday, the most since 2017, with an energy deficiency expected between 5 p.m. and 9 p.m. local time.

"We have now entered the most intense phase of this heat wave," California ISO CEO Elliot Mainzer said at a news conference on Monday, adding the state faced a deficit of 2-4 MW, as much as 10% of the state's normal electricity demand.

Downtown Los Angeles reached a temperature 103 on Sunday, the area's first break above 100 this year, and state capital Sacramento could reach 113 on Monday and 115 on Tuesday, which would be record highs for those days.

Relevant tickers include (NYSE:PCG), (NYSE:EIX), (NYSE:SRE), (XLU).

Separately, Sempra Energy (SRE) is in preliminary talks with European companies to sell the fuel from the next phases of its plant in Texas, President Dan Brouillette said at a conference in Milan.

The company also is considering joint ventures and partnerships to build LNG import terminals in Europe and elsewhere, Brouillette said.

California: I would assume someone has to pay for all that electricity.

Europe / LNG: that little snippet about SRE in preliminary talks with European .... this takes me back to Jim Cramer's list of five US companies that could benefit from US LNG being exported to Europe.

Rambling On A Monday Night -- After A Three-Day Weekend -- September 5, 2022

Energy "crisis." With regard to global energy, there seem to be no less than four parallel universes:

Europe / Russia
the US: mainstream as reported in The WSJ
the US: the alternate as reported in "twitter"
California:

bans gasoline cars
directs that EV owners to minimize charging (less than 2% of automobiles in California are EVs)

New Mexico: when I saw this, I was blown away -- link here.

Investing: I have never been so bullish on the US equity market.

For The Archives -- US Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito -- Not Ready For Prime Time -- September 5, 2022

This is for the archives, for my grandchildren. This has nothing to do with the Bakken.

The New Yorker, September 5, 2022, has an incredibly good essay on Justice Samuel Alito. The article is by Margaret Talbot, and runs a full 13-pages, and that doesn't include a fourteenth full-page drawing/sketch/painting of the judge.

I still have three full pages to finish but I'm enjoying all of it.

The writer is obviously biased, liberal, progressive, but one would expect that before reading it knowing it was in The New Yorker. But, surprisingly, the article is fairly well-balanced. What I might not like is easily made up for the background that Talbot provides: the personal background of Justice Alito, his family, his education; the background of the US Supreme Court during his tenure; and, the background of Dobbs (re-visiting Row v Wade).

I'm sure the article is behind a paywall but if you have access to a hard copy at the library or access some other way, it's definitely worth seeking it out / definitely worth reading.

It was interesting to see how Justice Alito was selected to write the opinion. He was not selected by the Chief Justice. Had he selected the justice to write the opinion, the chief justice would have likely written it himself but he did not have that choice.

But I digress.

More than anything I enjoyed re-living the 60's and New Jersey. I spent a lifetime in New Jersey one summer.

I was born in 1951. Samuel Alito was born in 1950, so we are almost exact contemporaries. One year older than I, the first question, what was his draft number and what did he do during the [Vietnam] war? He matriculated at Princeton in 1968. In 1969, the Moratorium to End the War in Vietnam and the SDS marched at Princeton. The writer, Margaret Talbot, conveniently does not tell us Alito's military history of if she does, I missed it. See end of this post.

Princeton went coed in Alito's sophomore year (1969). Alito enrolled in ROTC at Princeton and was dismayed when the school voted in 1970 to end the program over the next two years.

In 1973, the year after Alito graduated, the Supreme Court issued its Roe decision.

At that very time, the love of my life -- at the time -- one year older than Alito, graduated from Rutgers, and had entered medical school at Harvard, graduating in 1975. [My dates may be slightly wrong.]

Rutgers went coed September, 1970. [On June 26, 1976, 157 women entered the USAF Academy with the class of 1980. While in the Mediterranean Sea, if I recall correctly, the two pilots on my transport plane were members of that class. That was probably late 1980s.]

But the point is that while Alito was about as conservative and anti-feminist as one could be in the 1970s, the love of my life -- at the time -- was at the opposite end of the spectrum.

Those were incredibly "tough" times for those of us coming of age -- those of us sixteen years old to twenty-six years old -- at that time. I know I am biased, but it's hard to think of any ten-year, maybe fifteen-year period after 1960 that has been more challenging for those of us coming of age at that time. Three things stand out:

feminism and the pill
civil rights and the assassinations
the Vietnam War.

My lottery number in 1969 was 103. The government selected men with lottery numbers up to 125 in 1969. There are only 365 days in the year. That meant that 35% of men who turned 18 in 1969 were called up. Not all were "selected," of course, but think about that; 35% of all 18-year-olds were interviewed by their local draft board. I was. I remember that.

And that lottery number of 125 was just for one year. This went on for several years.

I assume "everyone" has read multiple books on the latter two issues -- civil rights and the assassinations; and, the Vietnam War. My hunch is that very few folks have read the definitive history of the pill. I read that book for the first time about four years ago. Very, very enlightening. For those folks who thought developing a Covid vaccine, they need to read the "science" history of the pill. No comparison.

The love of my life -- at that time -- had me read Portrait of a Marriage, c. 1973, published the year I graduated from college; published during her second year of medical school. [Or maybe I found that one on my own; I forget.] Regardless she had me read Open Marriage, published the year before. Open Marriage was a prerequisite before we could get married. About Open Marriage, from wiki:

Open Marriage: A New Life Style for Couples was a best selling book published by M. Evans & Company in 1972 by Nena O'Neill and George O'Neill. It was on the New York Times best-seller list for 40 weeks. It has been translated into 14 languages and has sold more than 35 million copies worldwide.

The book redefined the meaning of the term "open marriage" and helped foster a sexual revolution in the 1970s. The O'Neills conceived open marriage as one in which each partner has room for personal growth and can develop outside friendships. Most chapters in the book dealt with non-controversial approaches to revitalizing marriage in areas of trust, role flexibility, communication, identity, and equality. The authors intended "to strip marriage of its antiquated ideals and romantic tinsel and find ways to make it truly contemporary.

The love of my life -- at that time -- had one other prerequisite before we could get married. I had to broaden and explore an unspecified number of relationships with other women before marrying her.

And, so all of that comes flooding back while reading the essay on Justice Samuel Alito.

Because I'm older now, settled for 40+ years now with the love of my life, re-reading this history no longer gets me as excited as it once would have. I can read it detached, but still with complete personal interest.

I saw a documentary on Lifetime last night about Hugh Hefner and Playboy. I sometimes wonder if the sexual revolution did not have a greater effect on America than the other two phenomena of the 60s: the civil rights movement and the assassinations; and, the Vietnam War.

With regard to Alito's military service, from Ballotpedia:

Alito was drafted to serve in the Vietnam War on December 1, 1969.

He deferred his service while enrolled in college.

While at Princeton, he joined the Army Reserve Officers’ Training Corps (ROTC) so that he could enter active service as an officer after college. Alito was commissioned as a second lieutenant after his graduation from Princeton, but deferred his service a second time as he entered Yale Law School.

After graduation from law school, he served three months of active service from September to December of 1975. Alito served in the Army Reserve from 1972 until 1980, when he was honorably discharged with the rank of captain.

I would have been drafted in calendar year, 1970, but I would have been deferred twice for the same general reasons. Where Alito served most of his career in the Reserves, I served in the active force.

Quickies -- September 5, 2022

OPEC: takes control; cuts daily production quota despite Putin's resistance.

UK: new prime miniister. Liz Truss.

Liberty: electric frack pumps.

ESG: bad. But Big Grocery big profits just fine. Link here.

EE: Germany inked deal with EE for floating regasification plant. EE one of five LNG export companies recently recommended by Jim Cramer. EE: the new kid on the block.

Europe natural gas: even if storage is full, "flow" needs to be maintained. Link here. This is all new to me. We'll see.

Crude oil, US, days supply: link here. At 25.3 days, lowest since end of June, 2022.

Energy: land use.

World's Fastest Growing Oil Company Enters LNG Partnership With Delfin Midstream -- September 6, 2022

Devon tracked here.

Link here:

U.S. oil and gas producer Devon Energy has entered into a liquefied natural gas export partnership with LNG export infrastructure development company, Delfin Midstream.
The partnership includes an agreement for long-term liquefaction capacity and a strategic investment by Devon n Delfin.
The agreeemnet provides Devon up to 2.0 million tons per annum of total liquefaction capacity on a long-term basis.
Specifically, it lays down a framework for finalizing a definitive long-term tolling agreement representing 1 MTPA of liquefaction capacity in Delfin's first Floating LNG vessel, with the ability to add an additional 1 MTPA in Delfin's first or a future Floating LNG vessel.
The agreement also provides opportunity for additional future equity investments in Delfin by Devon..

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Monday, September 5, 2022