Pages

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- August 12, 2022

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Currently I am on the road: my notes will be less frequent, perhaps shorter. I will not get to my e-mail as often and I will not be able to post comments as often or in a timely manner.  

**************************
Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

WTI: $92.02.

Natural gas: $8.708.

No wells coming off confidential list.

RBN Energy: to understand the hydrocarbon value chain, start with the basics

The energy industry — everything from oil and gas production and transportation to oil refining, gas processing and NGL fractionation — has a myriad of variables influenced by dozens of factors. It’s a value chain so vast you’d think it would be impossible to explain in simple terms. But behind it all is a well-oiled machine for developing the resources that literally fuel our modern economy. And, by understanding what happens at each link in the value chain, you can ultimately gain a clearer picture of what’s happening in energy markets. In today’s RBN blog, we kick off a series aimed at examining and explaining the oil and gas value chain, starting with the upstream world of exploration and production — what happens in production areas, the types of companies that operate in that segment, and the critical role of oil and gas reserves.

GS Or BS: Crude Oil Back To $130 / Gasoline Back To $5 -- August 11, 2022

Predicting oil prices is a fool's errand.

Having said that, from Goldman Sachs today, by the end of the year, 2022:

  • oil will hit: $130
  • gasoline will be back to $5

I don't agree with that prognostication, but only because the "end of the year" is December, not exactly a big driving season.

But if "we" hit $130 / $5 before the end of this year, I can only imagine how high oil / gasoline will be next summer, assuming Russian sanctions are still in place. But the election will be over, so it won't matter much. Will it?


*********************
The Apple Page 

Link here.

Four New Permits; Eight Permits Renewed; WTI Trending Up -- August 11, 2022

Locator: 10020KIEFEL.

WTI: $93.99.

Natural gas: $8.709.

Active rigs: 47

Four new permits, #39157 - #39160, inclusive:

  • Operator: CLR (3); Resonance Exploration
  • Field: West Capa (Williams); South Westhope (Bottineau)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has permits for three new Kiefel wells, SESW 36-155-97; 
      • to be sited 675 FSL and between 2290 FWL and 2380 FWL;
    • Resonance has a permit for a Resonance Huber well, SWSW 1-162-80, a horizontal; 
      • to be sited 1188 FSL and 1091 FWL;

Eight permits renewed:

  • XTO (6): two Abby Federal permits in Dunn County; two Roberta permits; and two Lyla permits, the four in Williams County
  • Enerplus: one Christine Joe permit in Williams County
  • Liberty Resources: one Blomquist E permit in Burke County

The "Halo" Effect: CLR Gale Wells -- August 11, 2022

This well was fracked at the end of 2021:

  • 37375, drl/NC, CLR, Gale 7-32H, Cedar Coulee, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 190K 6/22; 

Two older, neighboring wells with "halo" effect:

  • 22434, 738, CLR, Gale 2-32H, Cedar Coulee, t12/12; cum 365K 6/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20223094219559662012284118930
BAKKEN5-2022301214112067847914985146100
BAKKEN4-202222900689547207925289950
BAKKEN3-20223014139140801204615141137940
BAKKEN2-2022152031608400
BAKKEN1-202230693670559229796776940
BAKKEN12-2021311492414868274281547014939112
BAKKEN11-20211911336110862089111118109280
BAKKEN10-20211007000
BAKKEN9-20211006000
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-20210000000
BAKKEN6-20210000000
BAKKEN5-202113305100
BAKKEN4-202192252801032852030
BAKKEN3-20213113041352467152711080
BAKKEN2-20212891890428810486840
BAKKEN1-20213012761809495150911170
BAKKEN12-2020311399909540165912400
BAKKEN11-202030145715385601682126710
BAKKEN10-20203115581655605182714080
BAKKEN9-20203013941613537165412490
  • 22436, 1,070, CLR, Gale 3-32H, Cedar Coulee, t1/13; cum 268K 6/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-202230411740207602509247880
BAKKEN5-2022305089517410277561152270
BAKKEN4-202224338032557923361533560
BAKKEN3-2022317530761618261958881250
BAKKEN2-2022164883481550145614230
BAKKEN1-202299412911331300
BAKKEN12-2021263476336145734076371635
BAKKEN11-202119571955798206653863340
BAKKEN10-20216008200
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-20210000000
BAKKEN6-20210000000
BAKKEN5-20210000000
BAKKEN4-2021103465362274122970
BAKKEN3-20213115561557668172713080
BAKKEN2-20212814861539543142695990
BAKKEN1-2021311618159754212558360
BAKKEN12-202029034201
BAKKEN11-20201102000
BAKKEN10-20200000000


The maps:


Quarterly State Land Lease Sales -- August, 2022

Done quickly; didn't proofread; there will be content and typographical errors; if this is important to you, go to the source.

Link here.

August, 2022.

Billings County:

  • eleven parcels
  • 80- and 160-acre parcels
  • Iron Horse Royalties; Northern Energy Corp
  • range:
  • lowest: $2 / acre
  • highest: $180 / acre

Burke County:

  • twenty-eight parcels
  • all Northern Energy except one Lynx Oil Company
  • 40-, 80-, and 160-acre parcels
  • lowest: $2 / acre
  • highs: $757 / acre

Divide County:

  • forty-one parcels;
  • all Northern Energy except one Norra Resources
  • lowest: $2
  • highest: $136

Dunn County:

  • four parcels
  • Beta Land Services (3) Phoenix Capital Group; Dasinger/Kaleb
  • lowest: $2
  • highest: $902 / acre for an 80-acre parcel

McKenzie County:

  • nine parcels
  • Northern Energy (5); Slawson Exploration (2); Bakken Production;
  • lowest: $40;
  • highest: $502 / acre for an 8-acre parcel;
    • SW4, 147-99028, Dasinger, Kaleb

McLean County:

  • number of parcels: too numerous to count
  • all bought by The Triplet T, Inc., except one parcel by Advanta Reesources
  • 40-, 80-, and a few 160-acre parcels
  • all for $1 and $2 except one parcel for $5 and one parcel for $56
  • lowest: $1 / acre
  • highest: $56 / acre

Mountrail County:

  • number of parcels: too numerous to county
  • mostly The Triplet, Inc; some Advanta Resources (6);
  • mostly 80-acre parcels:
  • lowest: $2 / acre
  • highest: $360 / acre

Stark County:

  • eight parcels
  • all BJ Kadrmas except two Northern Energy Corp

Ward County:

  • number of parcels: too numerous to county
  • all: The Triplet T
  • mostly 80-acre parcels, but a lot of smaller parcels
  • lowest: $1 / acre
  • highest: $2 / acre

Williams County:

  • ten parcels
  • Northeern Energy (4); Phoenix Capital Group (3); Norra Resources (3)

Rivian Earnings -- 2Q22 -- August 11, 2022

Link here. it's "how" one writes the headline.

From the linked WSJ article:

“We’ve seen unprecedented levels of inflation, especially across our raw material inputs and lithium prices,” said Claire McDonough, Rivian’s finance chief.

“We’ve also experienced increased costs in regard to our expedited freight expenses,” she said.

Rivian is seeking to rein in those costs by increasingly shipping vehicles by rail instead of by truck, which is cheaper but could result in a longer delivery time to customers.

A couple of comments:

  • "everyone" is blaming inflation; it's getting old;
  • but shipping by rail rather than truck to save costs? Aren't delivery and destination charges passed o to the customer?
  • everything suggests we will know by the end of this year, 2022, whether Rivian thrives, or even survives.

Later: earnings -- link here --

  • Electric vehicle maker Rivian Automotive maintained its full-year guidance for deliveries Thursday.
  • The automaker reported second-quarter revenue that was higher than Wall Street expected.
  • But it trimmed its full-year financial outlook, saying that investors should now expect a wider loss and lower capital expenditures than it had previously forecast.
  • forecast:
  • full year adjusted loss before EBITDA: $5.4 billion vs $4.75 billion
  • results
    • revenue: $364 million vs $337.5 forecast
    • adjusted loss per share: $1.62 vs a $1.63 loss

Original Post

Pre-announcement, link here at techcrunch.

Rivian, the EV startup that went public last year in one of the largest IPOs in U.S. history, has bucked the trend set by Tesla and other EV makers during the first half of the year.

Tesla, the world’s largest EV maker, reported two consecutive quarters of delivery declines stemming from delays in the supply chain and COVID-related lockdowns in Shanghai that stymied production its Gigafactory there.

Lucid has cut its 2022 production forecast several times this year, now targeting 6,000 to 7,000 vehicles, down from its original plan to build 20,000. U.K.-based Arrival said Thursday that it is slashing its 2022 target from 400 to 600 vehicles down to just 20.

Meanwhile, Rivian, which set a goal to own more than 10% of the global market eventually, said it has ramped up production so far this year – a mix of the Rivian R1T pickup truck, R1S SUV and the EDV commercial electric vans it is making for Amazon – and reaffirmed its target to deliver 25,000 vehicles this year.

However, the Irvine, California-based manufacturer faces the same financial pressures affecting the automotive industry. In July, it began laying off 900 employees – about 6% of its workforce – as part of a restructuring plan.
From IBD:
Rivian has begun its restructuring plan that includes laying off about 6% of its workforce, or about 900 people, according to an Aug. 1 TechCrunch report, citing an internal email.

The layoffs are affecting every department, except manufacturing operations at its Normal, Ill., factory.

Meanwhile, Rivian is also having difficulty delivering vehicles to customers on time. Rivian Forums reported on June 11, 2022, that some Rivian SUV reservation holders had received an email indicating delayed deliveries. Some who had an April-May delivery date were told they'd have to wait until the August-September time-frame; others until October-December.

Estimate: FactSet analysts expect the company to post a loss of $1.63 a share vs. a 66-cent loss in the year-ago quarter. Sales are seen coming in at $335.4 million. There is no year-ago revenue figure. 
Rivian has already said it produced 4,401 EVs in Q2, for a first-half total of 6,954.

Investors will want to know if Rivian still expects to produce 25,000 vehicles in 2022, which would require a continued ramp up.

Rivian's R1T all-electric pickup truck was the first of its kind to hit the market in July 2021, beating out the Tesla (TSLA) Cybertruck, which has yet to enter production, and the Ford (F) F-150 Lightning.

Headlines That I Missed -- August 11, 2022

Oilprice stories I missed while on the road:

Let's look at that last one: a radical plan to reduce Europe's oil demand by 33%; on the one-to-ten-LOL scale; time scale, by 2030:

  • accelerated electrification of cars and trucks: 10
  • boosting the fuel efficiency of ships, barges flowing down the Rhine: 10
  • scrap the suggestion regarding the Rhine: it will be dry by this time next year
  • reducing travel by switching to remote work some days of each week: 8
  • scrap the remote work suggestion; Europe won't have enough electricity to have any meaningful industry by this time next year;
  • switch from private car use to fossil-free travel: 10
  • only fossil-free travel is walking, running, and cycling, and even the latter is not completely fossil free;
  • limiting business travel by air: 10
  • shift cargo movement to:
  • across country, rail: 8
  • urban areas: cycling/walking: 10

Holiday Reminder -- August 11, 2022

Which two of the three are not alike?

  • unicorns
  • US Postal Service temporarily raising prices during "holiday" season
  • jackalopes

Definition: "holiday season" -- October 1, 2022, through September 30, 2023.

USPS: to "temporarily" hike prices for "holiday season" -- link here.

  • holidays to include but not limited to:
  • Eid al-Fitr
  • Easter
  • Eid al-Adha
  • Passover
  • hunting: opening day, North Dakota
  • Christmas
  • Juneteenth
  • Yom Kippur
  • Rosh Hashanah
  • Halloween
  • Custer's Last Stand: annual anniversary
  • Festivus for the rest of us
  • and everyone's favorite: Kwanzaa

Day 2 Of The NASDAQ Bull Market -- August 11, 2022

Updates

Later, 7:52 a.m. MT: link here. This is why EVs will not appreciate in price folks actually pay for them. Government will increase tax credits by amount elite auto makers increase car prices. So, yes, zero percent inflation. The president has this one right.

Original Post  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Currently I am on the road: my notes will be less frequent, perhaps shorter. I will not get to my e-mail as often and I will not be able to post comments as often or in a timely manner. 

Golf, match tournment, PGA vs LIV. PGA wins first round 

The PGA Tour and LIV Golf players’ first court hearing included major revelations about the LIV golfers’ deals—leading to the judge’s decision to deny an effort for three of them to play in the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

Irrelevant: when does a professional male golfer become irrelevant?

  •  when he does not win a PGA tournament in over five years.

Totally irrelevant: when does a professional golfer become totally irrelevant?

  • when he only plays three-day tournaments
  • when he only plays eight tournaments / year
  • Exhibit A: when did we last see Phil play?

US equity market futures: all I can say, I'm thrilled I'm fully invested.

Sorry? You will be if you sold / will sell any of these seven, link here:

  • Dish Network
  • MRO
  • BKR
  • Warner Bros Discovery -- readers know my feelings on pure-play streaming companies
  • News Corp
  • GM -- readers know my feelings on elite vehicle companies
  • Alaska Air Group
  • me? I wouldn't invest in any of the above. I hold a few shares in two of the seven but only due to spin-offs or legacy stocks (bought decades ago)

Cost of renewables; Ford to increase prices of its elite vehicle (EV) F-150 Lightning. Link here.
the price increase = the federal tax credit = $7,000

  • $110,000+ after taxes, finance charges, destination/delivery fee, government fees, finance chargs, deal processing charges, electronic filing charge, and an emission testing charge fee are added in
  • note: not all of the above charges will apply
  • $7,000 / $110,000 = 6% 
  • most other elite automakers have also increased taxes for the same reasons: to make a profit

Rivian: a "zombie" company. Link here.

Oil forecast:

  • demand will increase in 2022
  • as countries burn oil to produce electricity. Link here.
  • I'm lovin it
  • oil prices rose by over 1% on Thursday after the International Energy Agency raised its oil demand growth forecast for this year as soaring natural gas prices drive some consumers to switch to oil.

Disney: reality sucks. Link here. Also, here. Me? Not investing in either EVs or streaming.

  • the moat for streaming original content: deep pockets 
  • Disney+ streaming: from $7.99 to $10.99 / month (a 38% increase in price)
  • Disney+ with ads: $7.99 / month

The price increases reflect the growing operating loss for Disney’s streaming services. Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+ combined to lose $1.1 billion in the fiscal third quarter, $300 million more than the average analyst estimate, reflecting the higher cost of content on the services
The increased operating loss occurred even while Disney added about 15 million new Disney+ subscribers in the quarter, about 5 million more than analysts estimated
Disney has previously stated it plans to lose money on Disney+ until 2024. Chief Financial Officer Christine McCarthy reiterated on Wednesday’s earnings conference call that Disney+’s losses will peak during the company’s fiscal 2022.

 
Disclaimer
: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link
.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Currently I am on the road: my notes will be less frequent, perhaps shorter. I will not get to my e-mail as often and I will not be able to post comments as often or in a timely manner.

WTI Trending Higher; No Wells Coming Off The Confidential List -- Implications Of WTI Being Added To Brent Mix -- RBN Energy -- August 11, 2022

 *************************
Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

WTI; $93.43.

Natural gas: $8.439

Active rigs: 46

No wells coming off confidential list until next Tuesday, August 16, 2022.

RBN Energy: implications of adding WTI to the dated Brent price. Archived.

Like an aging pop star, price benchmarks have to re-invent themselves from time to time to maintain their status. The Dated Brent marker –– as much a survivor as Cher, still going strong at 76 –– has had successes and setbacks in the past and will undergo yet another transformation by June 2023, courtesy of price reporting agency Platts
You definitely need to pay attention to this change, because Dated Brent is used as a pricing reference not only for several crude oil streams sold around the world, but also for other commodities such as LNG, fuel oil and other refined products and petrochemicals — oh, and financial derivatives too. Also, the latest version of the price marker will include an adjusted price for the U.S.’s prolific West Texas Intermediate (WTI). In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the details and implications of Dated Brent’s latest makeover for traders, refiners and other market participants.