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Monday, August 8, 2022

Halo Effect -- #16317 -- August 8, 2022

This is exactly what analysts are missing about the Bakken. No one else talks about this. 

Here's another example.

This DUC was reported as completed, August 8, 2022:

  • 34817, 1,169, XTO, Myrna 21X-2B, Alkali Creek,

This Myrna well and its sister wells on the same pad hit the following well "almost perpendicularly":

  • 16317. 278, XTO, Marmon Hahn Trust 11X-11, Alkali Creek, t9/07; cum 329K 6/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-202229195711963378132935728567618
BAKKEN5-2022272007420012744530110269842966
BAKKEN4-202224194841991712768297011681512756
BAKKEN3-202224160125101937977
BAKKEN2-20220000000
BAKKEN1-20220000000
BAKKEN12-20210000000
BAKKEN11-20210000000
BAKKEN10-20210000000
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-202130795889897242322660
BAKKEN7-202131124810891228369335020
BAKKEN6-202130168521531416413225761371
BAKKEN5-2021157382274481806775956
BAKKEN4-20211000440
BAKKEN3-20211931365943788517113
BAKKEN2-20212886365529021111250607

 Original production when it was first drilled back in 2007: 

BAKKEN8-20082124622454227386737790
BAKKEN7-20083131422698454512750090
BAKKEN6-20083031773109434500948920
BAKKEN5-20083135843831575586657300
BAKKEN4-20083037133347578560554670
BAKKEN3-200829402141381140663464660
BAKKEN2-20082940394098560568055320
BAKKEN1-20083148834659808681466310
BAKKEN12-2007314876486172466315493958
BAKKEN11-20073053075609985721707013
BAKKEN10-200731684767372184931209018
BAKKEN9-200717138610032040188501783
BAKKEN8-20074382235524580442

Two things:
  • one: production of that old well jumped 20-fold, from 1,000 bbls/month to 20,000 bbls/month:
  • two: the old well was a pretty lousy well from the beginning -- see monthly production when it was first drilled back in 2007 -- around 4,000 bbls/month at the very beginning and then the dreaded Bakken decline, but now, fourteen year later, production jumps five-fold after newer wells in the area are drilled.

I used to track all these "halo" wells at this post, but it's become overwhelming. I tag them but I won't add them to thee index at that linked site any more. But I'm no less excited when I see these wells.

The map:

Sinclair With One New Permit; Eleven Permits Renewed; One DUC Reported As Completed -- August 8, 2022

WTI: $90.55.

Natural gas: $7.674.

Active rigs: 48

One new permit, #39142:

  • Operator: Sinclair
  • Field: Little Knife (Dunn County)
  • Comment: 
    • Sinclair has a permit for a Hovden Federal well in NNEENE 29-146-97; 
      • to be sited 1141 FNL and 886 FEL

Eleven permits renewed:

  • Enerplus (7): four Fort Berthold permits; a Tempo permit; an Octave permit; and, a Cadence permit, all in Dunn County
  • Grayson Mill (2): two Martin permits; Williams County;
  • XTO (2): one Michael State Federal permit and one Bjarne Federal permit, both in Williams County

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 34817, 1,169, XTO, Myrna 21X-2B, Alkali Creek, check out #16317.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2022221857518310280962939228244490
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-20220000000
BAKKEN3-202200280000
BAKKEN2-202222452173331368036

WTI Continues Downward Trajectory -- Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- August 8, 2022

Inflation: without question, a lot of retailers are using the "cover" of inflation to raise prices. And many of these places are raising prices significantly to make up for losses during Covid-19 lockdowns. Link here. I have not noticed much change in prices at McDonald's -- all sizes of soft drinks are unchanged: $1.00.


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Back to the Bakken

Far Side: link here.

WTI: $88.10.

Natural gas: $7.800.

Active rigs: 49.

Tuesday, August 9, 2022: 6 for the month, 37 for the quarter, 376 for the year

  • 37925, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 1-1-17MTFH,

Monday, August 8, 2022: 5 for the month, 36 for the quarter, 375 for the year

  • None.

Sunday, August 7, 2022: 5 for the month, 36 for the quarter, 375 for the year

  • None.

Saturday, August 6, 2022: 5 for the month, 36 for the quarter, 375 for the year

  • 37205, conf, Grayson Mill, Larsen 10-2 XE 1H, 

RBN Energy: is the Gulf of Mexico poised for a runn of crude oil production growth?

The Gulf of Mexico (GOM) has seen more than its share of stormy weather, and — both literally and figuratively — so have crude oil producers active there. Earlier this century, production growth in the offshore GOM was set back by Katrina and other major hurricanes, then by the Deepwater Horizon spill.
Starting in 2014, and for five years after that, the Gulf's output ratcheted up, only to be set back again, this time by the double-whammy of COVID and bad storms. 
Now, the GOM appears to be poised for another period of steady growth — the only question is, with the global push to decarbonize, and with at least of couple of large producers planning to exit the region, will this be Gulf producers' last stretch of good weather? In today's RBN blog, we begin a short series on the ups and downs of GOM production, the new projects starting up this year and beyond, and the Gulf's longer-term prospects.

A Tough Investing Quarter For Everyone -- August 7, 2022

Analysis: Forbes. Link here.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A / BRK-B) slipped to a loss of over $43.7 billion in the second quarter versus a profit of over $28 billion in the same quarter of 2021. 

Thanks to sharp declines in the stock market, that result is dominated by losses from the investment portfolio since unrealized gains from their portfolio are included in earnings. 

Operating earnings, which remove the distortion from market changes and better reflect the firm’s earnings power, for the quarter rose sharply by 39% versus 2021

Year-to-date operating earnings rose by 19% over the same period in 2021. Providing an illustration of the value from share repurchases, per-share operating income for the second quarter increased by 43% versus 2021.

Because the Covid-19 pandemic negatively impacted most businesses, including Berkshire, in early 2020, comparing current results to pre-pandemic 2019 results is helpful. Operating earnings for the second quarter of 2022 are 51% above 2019. And thanks to share repurchases, operating earnings per share are a whopping 68% above 2019.

But, bought on the dip: 

Berkshire was a net buyer of equities in 2Q by $3.8 billion, or $45.2 billion in 2022, vs. a $16 billion net seller in 2020-21. 
We think this may continue and doesn’t necessarily signal Buffett is bearish on his own shares; buybacks have historically been a lower priority use of capital. Repurchases of $1 billion in 2Q declined from the 2021 pace of about $7 billion a quarter.”

Berkshire Hathaway's 2Q22 earnings, link here:

  • The conglomerate’s operating earnings totaled $9.283 billion in the second quarter of 2022, marking a 38.8% increase from a year ago.
  • However, the company posted a $53 billion loss on its investments during the quarter.
  • Warren Buffett again asked investors to not focus on the quarterly fluctuations in its equity investments.

The conglomerate’s operating earnings — which encompass profits made from the myriad of businesses owned by the conglomerate like insurance, railroads and utilities — totaled $9.283 billion in the second quarter of 2022, Berkshire reported Saturday morning. It marked a 38.8% increase from the same quarter a year ago.

Let's see: that would be:

  • BNI

Gasoline Demand -- Commentary -- August 7, 2022

Note: this whole "gasoline demand" fascinated me. I learned a lot from it. Some folks are suggesting the EIA is "fudging" the "gasoline demand" figures. See ZeroHedge, August 4, 2022.

Folks are working too hard / over-thinking what's going. Once one realizes who's measuring what, it all makes sense. No conspiracy theories. Simply cash flow.

This page is simply for my benefit and for the archives.

Alex Kimani

While Gasbuddy claims there was a 2% rise in gasoline demand last week, the EIA reported a 7.6% drop in demand.

Comment: they can both be correct; GasBuddy and EIA measuring two different things.

 Updates

August 7, 2022: link here. 

  • WTI oil prices have given up nearly all their gains since Russia invaded Ukraine, falling roughly 9.5% over the course of the week amid fears oil demand is collapsing.
  • Some oil pundits are now claiming that the Biden administration has been fabricating low gasoline demand data in order to drag prices lower (there are folks pushing the "conspiracy theory"; I don't buy it; I don't buy a "conspiracy" explanation).
  • While Gasbuddy claims there was a 2% rise in gasoline demand last week, the EIA reported a 7.6% drop in demand (they can both be correct; GasBuddy and EIA measuring two different things)
  • I like Alex Kimani but he missed the target on this on, on a number of levels. 
    • I was disappointed there was really no analysis; no number-crunching to try to explain things
    • look at the weekly data, million bbls/day
      • 7/15/22: 8.541
      • 7/22/22: 9.245
      • 7/29/22: 8.521 (w/w= minus 7.8%; y/y = -12.8% 
      • one year ago, 7/31/21: 9.775

In the graphic above,

  • EIA measures gasoline demand at "B":
  • GasBuddy measures gasoline demand at "A."

The question is why the disparity. A little thinking will explain "the disconnect." 

Original Post 

We'll talk about this again later.

The interesting thing: nothing supports the suggestion that gasoline demand has fallen that much, except the price of gasoline and crude oil have both come down significantly in just the past few days. Although it's hard to say gasoline at $4.25 "has come down significantly."

Suggestion regarding previous post. As a reminder:

US gasoline demand.

With new annotation:

Suggestion:

Original Post

Gasoline demand: link here.  

  • then explain:
    • gasoline under $4.00 / gallon and dropping fast;
    • WTI below $90 and dropping fast;
    • US refiners operating at a very low capacity; trending toward 90% of their operating capacity; lowest in the last few years;

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For The Archives

Road trip.

Currently I am on the road: my notes will be less frequent, perhaps shorter. I will not get to my e-mail as often and I will not be able to post comments as often or in a timely manner.