The Hess EN-Pederson Wells With Huge Jump In Production -- August 3, 2022

One of the several EN-Pederson wells, others have similar jump in production :

• 23448, 792, Hess, EN-Pederson 154-94-0409H-2, Alkali Creek, t1/13; cum 309K 6/22; file report: last sundry form received August 21, 2014; recent production:
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	12877	12916	13676	22361	22352	9
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	14244	14262	5924	18935	18935	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	16	8076	7900	0	11389	11363	26
BAKKEN	3-2022	11	1536	1568	390	1691	1691	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	15	7310	7328	8465	12636	12617	19
BAKKEN	1-2022	27	10881	10938	13845	22047	21951	96
BAKKEN	12-2021	30	13094	12954	13474	19397	19390	7
BAKKEN	11-2021	5	367	442	1409	1567	1567	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	18	7704	7695	706	9104	9102	2
BAKKEN	9-2021	14	6724	6652	122	8048	7974	74
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	26	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	0	0	20	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	5	97	122	45	303	303	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	872	905	417	2715	2715	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	942	943	266	2057	2057	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	1016	1010	295	2200	2200	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	24	809	805	228	1715	1715	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	1041	1037	287	2280	2280	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	1049	1056	197	2236	2236	0

A Madison-Horizontal Well Southwest Of Williston -- August 3, 2022

From the August, 2022, NDIC hearing dockets: 

Case, not a permit, #29538:

Mercury Resources, Buford or Briar Creek-Madison pool, to establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit, sections 11/14-152-104, one horizontal well.

Existing wells in those two sections:

• 24833, 3,084, Grayson Mill, Houston 11-2 1H, Buford, t7/13; cum 322K 5/22;
• 16638, 143, Mercury Resources, Charbonneau 1-14H, Briar Creek-MADISON, t9/07; cum 394K 6/22;
• 24770, 2,001, Grayson Mill, TML 14-13 1H, Briar Creek, t7/13; cum 198K 6/22;

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Back Safely From Costa Rica

Editor and proofreader back safely from Costa Rica. 

Afternoon tea with madeleines, watermelon, and small chocolate croissants.

Starting To See Some Companies Pull Away From The Competition -- August 3, 2022

I'm starting to get a handful of companies that seem to be pulling away from the competition -- has anyone heard Amazon complain about supply chain shortages? I haven't. 

In the military, "whining" was not acceptable. 

Yesterday Amazon announced an expansion of their delivery options to include shopping malls in select cities across the country. 

Today, we're getting an update on Amazon's plans for mega-fulfillment centers. Link here. 

The e-commerce giant recently won local approval to build a five-story, 3.1 million-square-foot distribution center in western New York, and has even bigger sites in the works in Southern California and Colorado as it bolsters a network aimed at getting more goods faster to more Americans.

The projects signal that the sprawling warehouses that anchor Amazon’s U.S. logistics network still have a place in the company’s strategy following its announcement in May that it was slowing the build-out of its logistics network and planned to sublease some existing space following its slowest quarterly revenue growth in about two decades.

The approval of a $550 million warehouse last week by a planning board in the Town of Niagara, N.Y., makes the site one of the first new Amazon distribution projects to move forward since the company said it was rethinking its logistics network.

The facility will be what Amazon calls a sortable fulfillment center, considered a “first mile” facility, where goods are transported in bulk to middle-mile and last-mile locations for final deliveries to customers. Employees at those warehouses work alongside robots to pick, pack and shop customer orders for items like books, toys and housewares.

The company is also pressing ahead with a 4.1 million-square-foot, five-story facility under construction in Ontario, Calif., and a 3.9 million-square-foot, five-story project in Loveland, Colo. Both of those would be among the company’s largest warehouses ever.

This is simply incredible. 

Meanwhile, Walmart is laying off / firing white-collar workers at "corporate" after the disastrous inventory snafus.  

This might be a great time for folks to binge watch "Suits" now streaming "everywhere.

Among legacy automakers, is Ford pulling away from the rest of the pack? There are indications. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Texas Electricity Grid: Holding Just Fine -- August 3, 2022

Lucid -- Everybody Blames "Supply Chain And Logistic Challenges" -- It's Getting Old And It's Getting Tedious -- August 3, 2022

Link here.

• Electric vehicle maker Lucid Group again cut its production targets Wednesday.
• Supply chain and logistics challenges mean demand for the company’s EVs far outpaces its output.
• The company said it now has over 37,000 reservations for its Air electric luxury sedan, but it delivered just 679 cars in the second quarter.

Disruptive:

• EVs: link here. Scorecard. 

The Lucid story:

Electric vehicle maker Lucid Group again cut its production targets Wednesday as supply chain and logistics challenges mean demand for the company’s EVs far outpaces its output.

The company said it now has over 37,000 reservations for its Air electric luxury sedan (the Elite Sedan), up from more than 30,000 in May – but it delivered just 679 cars in the second quarter. 

In February, it said that it expected to build between 12,000 and 14,000 vehicles in 2022, down from an original forecast of 20,000. 

It cut its full-year deliveries guidance for a second time, saying that it now expects to deliver just 6,000 to 7,000 vehicles in 2022, and announced a new senior executive to lead operations. Lucid’s shares fell about 12% in after-hours trading following the news.

Crescent Point Energy With Six New Permits; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- August 3, 2022

WTI: $90.66. 

Natural gas: $8.22.

• Denmark reported today, re-opening of its huge natural gas field has been delayed for several months.
• the Tyra gas field offshore Denmark
• wow, look at this -- will be delayed to the end of 2023 -- that's more than a year from now, or maybe even to early 2024 -- essentially two years from now
• field operator: TotalEnergy
• Denmark will continue to be dependent on natural gas from Germany (say what?) and consequently from Russia, for (far?) longer than it thought it would be.
  
• other plays also being delayed
• something tells me this is a big deal; we'll see
  

Active rigs: 46.

Six new permits, #39127 - #39132, inclusive:

• Operator: Crescent Point Energy
• Fields: Blue Ridge (Williams); Burg (Williams); Ellisville (Williams)
• Comments:
• Crescent Point Energy has permits for six wells: Szarka, Claire Rose (4); and, Amelia Grace;
• though in different oil fields, all will be in SESW 31-159-99, all sited 290 FSL and between 1478 FWL and 1603 FWL

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 36242, 0, BR, Maverick 1E MBH, Dimmick Lake, no production data, the BR Maverick wells are tracked here;
• 36247, 194, BR, Stortroen 2C TFH, Dimmick Lake, no production data, the BR Stortroen wells are tracked here;

Gasoline Demand -- Americans Doing What They Do Best -- Managing Their Household Budgets -- August 3, 2022

Link here.

NOG -- 2Q22 Earnings

Press release.

• record quarterly production: 72,689 boepd
• cash flow from operations: $210.2 million
• cash flow from operations, excluding charges: $252.2 million
• free cash flow: $114.3 million
• announced a $170 million core Williston Basin acquisition in June, 2022, scheduled to close, August, 2022
• declared a 25-cent quarterly dividend, an increase of 32% from the previous quarter
• repurchased $12.8 million common shares in the second quarter and an additional $7.2 million in July, 2022, for $20 million; 756,177 shares in total year-to-date;

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Haircut

Due To Family Commitments, My Plan Is To Post Only Twice A Day For The Next Two Weeks -- August 3, 2022

I will probably blog more frequently than that, but if you see less blogging, don't be surprised.

Similarly, my replies to e-mail and moderating comments will be delayed.

Other items.

COP: earnings preview. Thursday, after market close.

• forecast:
• EPS: $3.85
• revenue: $19.71 billion
• whisper number:
• $3.96; consensus: $3.78
• revenue: $17.24.

SRE: earnings preview. Thursday, before market open.

• forecast:
• EPS: $1.77
• revenue: $3 billion
• whisper number:
• EPS: $1.93; consensus: $1.82
• revenue: $2.91 billion

***********************
The Book Page

Lawsuits.

1. Pertelsmann's PRH bested Rupert Murdoch's HarperCollins with a $2.18 billion for Simon & Schuster.

• Biden's DOJ wants to fight the acquisition on "monopoly" grounds 
• the lawsuit here; 
• Penguin Random House: biggest US publisher by far
• Simon & Schuster: fourth-largest;
  
• merger arranged by parent companies: Bertelsmann and ViacomCBS
  
• link here to Vanity Fair; 
• link here to NY Times (paywall);
• by the way, in the big scheme of things, this whole "deal" is small potatoes -- 
• deal valued at $2.2 billion
  
• my hunch:
• DOJ prevails; merger stopped
• ViacomCBS will find another buyer; publishing is not part of their core competency
• S&S could be sold to private venture -- worst outcome possible for authors
  

2. Amazon accused of conspiracy to set/fix e-book prices with the big five: Hachette, HarperCollins, Macmillan, Simon & Schuster, and Penguin Random House (PRH). Link here. 

Not Even Close -- August 3, 2022

Over on twitter, someone suggested that the Texas grid will be stressed today when demand will hit 80 MW, an all-time record.

I don't know if 80 MW is an all-time record, but the grid is clearly not going to be stressed today.

ERCOT.

And except for tweets on twitter, all highly politicized, there has been no concerns about the grid for the past week or so despite the hot weather. 

It gets tedious.

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- August 3, 2022

Weekly EIA petroleum report:

• US crude oil inventories increased by a whopping 4.5 million bbls.
• US crude oil inventories stand at 426.6 million bbls.
• US crude oil imports averaged 7.3 million bbls per day, increased by 1.2 million bbls per day; over the past four weeks, crude oil imports average 6.7 million bbls, 1.7% more than same four-week period last year;
• US refiners operating at only 91.0% of their operable capacity; continues to trend down
• by the way, I believe the SPR release has averaged about 650,000 bopd (mostly sour) despite the offer to release one million bopd over the past two months -- numbers maybe inexact, but trend is accurate
• US distillate inventories decreased by 2.4 million bbls; now 25% below the five-year average;
• US jet fuel delivered was down 0.7%, so we're almost back to what it was a year ago.

Three interesting data points:

• crude oil imports increasing;
• refiners operating at only 91% of their operable capacity (as gasoline prices fall to below $4)
• but most interesting, jet fuel supplied:

US Natural Gas Production -- 2021 -- All-Time High

Link here.

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For The Archives: F vs TSLA

Link here. 

Ford Lightning.

Tesla Cybertruck.

Twitter -- Tansu Yegen -- August 3, 2022

Will start following: Tansu Yegen. 

• Food handling tips.  
• Coagulation of blood.
  

OXY's 2Q22 Numbers

Link here.

• net profit: $3.6 billion vs $4.7 billion in the 1Q22
• adjusted income for shareholders: $3.2 billion vs $2.1 billion
• free cash flow: $4.2 billion
• highest quarterly FCF to data

Clearing Out The In-Box -- August 3, 2022

EVs: upside-down logic of EV SUVS. Link to The WSJ. 

F: big numbers -- July's numbers --

• US auto sales up almost 40% year/year
• EVs up 170%, again year/year
• 11% market share:
• truck sales: up 21%

SBUX: record revenues. Extraordinary.

• no evidence of customers spending less; "trading down";

INTC: it only gets worse. AMD agrees with INTC -- the PC market is falling apart.

• INTC CEO: time for a bit of austerity (euphemism for layoffs)
• INTC: one word -- Nokia

AMD: guidance weak;

• 2Q22: revenue jumped 70% to $6.55 billion, barely beating estimate of $6.53;
• adjusted EPS: $1.05, again, barely beating estimate by two ceents;

Robinhood: lays off 25% of its workforce

AAPL: old news, previously reported -- most recent quarter -- record revenue of $83 billion;

CATL: posted yesterday, but now being widely reported;  

The train has left the station: link here.

Five momentum stocks: includes PSX, Valero Energy.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Only Two Wells, Both CLR Wells, Will Be Coming Off Confidential List Through End Of Week -- August 3, 2022

Opening comment: we're going to start seeing stories today and for the next ten days about how brilliant the Pelosi visit was and how brilliantly the Biden-Pelosi team played China

• good cop, bad cop
• Biden said he did not support Pelosi's visit; reiterated the "one China policy"
• Pelosi: said the US fully supports Taiwan's independence; the EU said they would defend Taiwan if attacked;
• China unable to "really" respond in any way
• the West saw how China was able to respond: pretty much no response whatsoever
• the "paper tiger" -- again
• Jim Cramer completely wrong on his Pelosi-China analysis 
• I find it incredible that this was the first such trip in 25 years -- with one of our most steadfast allies in the region; and, one of our most important trading partners.
  

This is will show Taiwan what China can do, link here:

China will quietly reverse this ban next month.

MPC: earnings surge. 

Chesapeake Energy: will exit Eagle Ford; link here.

• hard pivot to natural gas
• and Eagle Ford was gassy

Coal: demand setting records. EIA

• global coal demand will rise 8 billion tonnes in 2022 (that's this year)
• will match the 2013 all-time high;
• 2023: demand will increase again, albeit not by much

Markets: the train has left the station.

• despite all the hawkish comments coming from Fed members

********************************
Back to the Bakken

Far Side: link here.

WTI: $96.03.

• as predicted, price starts rising as soon as Pelosi's plane departs Taiwan
• is anyone paying attention? I predicted OPEC+ would raise their quota by 250,000 bbls crude oil per day (a drop in the bucket)
• in fact, it appears OPEC+ will raise the quote by 100,000 bbls crude oil per day
  

Natural gas: $7.741

Active rigs: 46 or thereabouts.

Friday, August 5, 2022: 4 for the month, 35 for the quarter, 374 for the year

• 37008, conf, CLR, LCU Reckitt Federal 4-22H,

Thursday, August 4, 2022: 3 for the month, 34 for the quarter, 373 for the year

• 38170, conf, CLR, LCU Foster Federal 7-28H,

Wednesday, August 3, 2022: 2 for the month, 33 for the quarter, 372 for the year

• None.

RBN Energy: will the US deliver what the world needs?

U.S. exports of crude oil, LNG, NGLs and refined products have moved into the spotlight on the world stage. Within the past few years, global markets have come to rely on U.S.-sourced hydrocarbons to meet critical needs for energy supplies. But export volume growth has slowed. Demand in the U.S. is ramping up, leaving less available for shipment overseas. And some members of Congress are encouraging the Biden administration to curtail or even ban some exports. What’s next for U.S. hydrocarbon sales to international markets? Will U.S. exports be there to challenge Russia’s use of oil and gas as political weapons? Or could market, logistical and political forces disrupt the flows that are meeting energy needs of the world? Today, we preview the deep dive into these issues on the agenda at RBN’s upcoming xPortCon conference.

For the archives:

Over the past decade, the Shale Revolution vaulted the U.S. into the role of a major exporter of crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas and NGLs. And the world came to depend on those exports to balance the global supply/demand equation. Then a combination of COVID, producer discipline and infrastructure capacity constraints slowed the growth of those supplies just as demand for U.S. exports was skyrocketing due to the combined impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the West’s sanctions on Russia and a steadily progressing pandemic recovery.

Figure 1 details what has happened to U.S. energy exports in recent years. Crude oil exports (red bar chart to left) soared from 0.5 MMb/d in 2015 (before the crude oil export ban to countries other than Canada was lifted) to 3.0 MMb/d in 2019, but then growth ground to a halt. As shown in the dashed gray box in that chart, crude exports have stayed within a narrow range ever since, mostly due to the COVID-induced production decline and ongoing producer discipline constraints.

Figure 1. Crude, Products, NGLs and LNG Exports (2022 year-to-date May). Source: EIA

Much more at the link.