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Wednesday, July 27, 2022

Why I'm Laser-Focused On Dividends -- July 27, 2022

Link here.


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The Book Page

My new book will arrive tomorrow from Amazon, ordered it today. "Free" with "points" on the Amazon credit card.

Until that book arrives, my book for the day:

  • Lectures on Shakespeare, W.H. Auden, edited by Arthur Kirsch, c. 2000.

I've read the book two or three times, so it's always fun to go back and read various selections. Today, I read the lecture on Richard III.

The "Screen-Shot" Page -- July 27, 2022

For the archives:

No clue



Hess:

GM, link here:

TTE, link here.


SPR release, link here:


The Apple page: Lamborghini - Apple hook-up.

Facebook, link here.


Stock picking, link here.

No New Permits; One DUC Reported As Completed -- July 27, 2022

WTI; up 3% after the president announced another 20 million bbls of oil would be released from the US SPR; trading at $98.13

Natural gas: $8.687.

Active rigs: 46 or thereabouts.

No new permits.

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 38556, 70, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Pankake 3-6-7-157N-99W-MBH, Dublin, no production data reported.

Goldilocks -- Investing -- July 27, 2022

Before we get started, that "chips" bill: way more than advertised.

  • TSM: up 3.4% today; up $2.84; trading at $87.26.
  • not even going to look at NVDA

A few days / weeks ago, we agree on two things:

  • the sh*t would hit the fan in July; and,
  • investors would experience a "goldlilock's" moment.

The sh*t hit the fan in Europe; and

  • investors completely ignored Fed action today:

Ten best energy stocks for inflation, link here;
NASDAQ up almost 300 points even after Fed raises rates 75 basis points;

10. SO
9. PSX
8. HAL
7. EOG
6. CVX: best of breed, Michael Fitzsimmons.
5. Enphase (ENPH)
4. SLB
3. DVN
2. OXY
1. COP
From the CVX-Fitzsimmons link:
  • Chevron is set to grow production to 3.5+ million boe/d by 2026, an increase of ~400,000 boe/d as compared to the 3.1 million boe/d expected this year.
  • Most of that growth will come from Chevron's legacy no- or low-royalty tier-1 position in the Permian Basin and from Tengiz expansion projects in Kazakhstan.
  • Longer term, Chevron has excellent offshore nat-gas growth potential in the Mediterranean Sea due to its acquisition of Noble Energy and the EU's need for new natural gas supply.
  • Chevron is due to release Q2 results this Friday (July 29) before the market open. Over the past 90 days, EPS estimates have risen by over $1 to $5.10/share even as the stock dropped ~10%.
  • Chevron's capital discipline, improved cost efficiencies, and strong asset base have positioned the company as best-of-breed among the international integrated companies. CVX is a BUY.

Refiners:

  • if you can't see the fallacy in this, you have not analytical capability; sorry, not sorry
    • comments are heavily moderated, so don't even try. LOL.
  • link here.

No clue


Market Is Up Nicely; Buy On The Rumor; Sell On The News -- WTI Surges -- July 27, 2022

Fed: no surprise. Raises "rate" 75 basis points. Okay. NASDAQ still up almost 300 points.

  • WTI: still up about three percent
  • TSM: after starting badly today, is up over 2% 
  • two days from now? Everyone will forget the Fed rate change today and the market will rip.

WTI:

  • President Biden announces another sale, not swap, from the nation's SPR;
  • and WTI surges:
  • for the archives:
    • WTI up over 3%
    • WTI up almost $3/bbl
    • WTI now trending toward $98

Imagine: WTI if President Biden was not selling a million bbls a day

  • Libya: exports a million bopd when things are going well
  • this SPR release will "get us through the summer" but the SPR releases will come to an end in October, 2022

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Word For The Day

Word for the day: okay, before we get to the word for the day, the French word of "to forget" is: oublier

  • the French word "to forget" is oublier
  • now the word for today: oubliette
  • there are dungeons, and then there are dungeons!
  • an oubliette is where kings sent low-lifes they wanted to forget

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- July 27, 2022

The weekly EIIA petroleum report:

  • US crude oil inventories decreased by 4.5 million bbls; this is on top of the seven million bbls of oil released from the SPR;
  • US crude oil inventories now stand at 422.1 million bbls, 6% below the 5-year average;
  • US crude oil imported is so unchanged not even worth the time posting it
  • refineries reported operating at 92.2% of their operable capacity, coming down significantly after recent highs;
  • distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.8 million bbls; remain 23% below the five-year average;
  • propane inventories increased by 2.6 million bbls, but remain 12% below the five-year average
  • jet fuel supplied was up 9.9% compared with same four-week period last year
  • gasoline demand will be reported later today
  • natural gas fill rate will be reported tomorrow.
  • WTI: which had been up around a dollar per bbl before the report, is now flat, up maybe 0.2%

Other links:

  • US fild production of crude oil, link here;
  • days supply, link here; still robust but trending toward the historical mean (average?);
  • US crude oil exports, link here; trending at record highs;

Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- July 27, 2022

Saudi:

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Back to the Bakken

Far Side: link here.

WTI: $95.59.

Natural gas: $8.815.

Active rigs: 46 rigs or thereabouts.

Thursday, July 28, 2022: 28 for the month, 28 for the quarter, 367 for the year

  • 38667, conf, CLR, Bang 4-4H,

Wednesday, July 27, 2022: 27 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 366 for the year

  • 38614, conf, CLR, Bang 13-4H1

RBN Energy: The Houston area's care for becoming a DOE-backed hydrogen hub. 

It took many decades to build out the U.S.’s natural gas production, processing and transportation infrastructure, and just as long to develop demand for natgas — the many millions of residential, commercial, industrial and power-generation customers that now depend on U.S. gas, both domestically and, more recently, internationally as well. Now, with action on both climate change and energy security top of mind, there’s a big push to add clean hydrogen to the energy mix as quickly as possible, as evidenced by the Department of Energy’s plan to invest up to $8 billion in the development of four or more “hydrogen hubs.” This time, we won’t have decades to build out the clean hydrogen supply, demand and infrastructure that will be needed to make a real difference — and that’s precisely the point being made by the folks in and around Houston, who assert that the region has just what it takes to get a consequential hydrogen hub up and running. In today’s RBN blog, we continue our look at the federal government’s push to advance clean hydrogen and the Houston-led effort to make the western Gulf Coast a center of hydrogen-related activity.

As we said in Part 1, it’s clear by now that the transition to a lower-carbon economy will be an “all of the above” kind of thing, involving everything from wind, solar and nuclear power to battery storage, electric vehicles and fuel cells. And hydrocarbons, whose climate impacts can be reduced by blending with renewable fuels or other means — or mitigated (partially or even fully) with carbon offsets and carbon sequestration. Then there’s clean hydrogen, the focus of this blog series, whose development the DOE has deemed crucial to meeting the Biden administration’s goals of a 100% clean electric grid by 2035 and net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.