Pages

Friday, July 22, 2022

No New Permits -- July 22, 2022

Schlumberger: top oilfield service provider; raises earnings outlook.

  • reported higher-than-expected profits
  • calling it a multi-year cycle; some are calling this a super-cycle

Dividend announcement: shocker -- Blackstone reduces dividend. Full look here.

WTI: $94.70.

Natural gas: $8.30

Active rigs: 42 or thereabouts.

No new permits.

Twelve permits renewed:

  • XTO (6): three Harley Federal permits; three Edwards Trust Federal permits, all in McKenzie County;
  • Zavanna (5): five King Charles permits in Williams County
  • Whiting: one Double Eagle permit in Mountrail County

Five permits canceled:

  • Oasis: three Dahl permits in McKenzie County; two Borden Federal permits in Williams County

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 36674, 1,428, Grayson Miill, Lucy Hanson 15-22 2H, see screenshot below.
  • 38295, 1,158, Rolf Federal 11-17HSL,

Screenshot of #36674:

The Apple Page: CarPlay

Link here.

This almost knocked me off my poolside chair:

  • Apple engineering manager Emily Schubert said 98% of new cars in the U.S. come with CarPlay installed. 
  • She delivered a shocking stat: 79% of U.S. buyers would only buy a car if it supported CarPlay.

 Think what else these two stats are telling you. 

******************************
And Yes, "We" Have Tickets

Link here.


****************************
Car Play

With regard to the article above, my not-ready-for-prime-time thoughts:

I still have trouble believing those statistics -- but even if its "slightly" true, how did I miss it? 

I've rented several times in the past two years for cross country trips and all rentals, of course, are new cars and I've never seen "Car Play" but then, of course, I didn't ask. But they all had access to Sirius XM which, I believe, requires either Car Play or an android equivalent to access. I could be wrong. 

From this article (https://www.autotrader.com/car-shopping/apple-carplay-vehicles-list) the key phrase is "Car Play is offered as Standard or Optional."

From that article:

Almost every major automaker now includes Apple CarPlay as standard or optional equipment. In many pre-2021 cars, it requires a wired connection. But in a growing number of 2021 and later cars, the connection is wireless. 
Android users aren’t out of luck. The Android Auto system is easier to find every year. Many new cars offer both connections. 

But it is noteworthy that this article is fairly recent, and it suggests that the Android Auto system is a distant second but working to catch up. 

But if your statistics are correct, 79% want Car Play in their next car ... 

By the way: great naming by Apple: Car Play vs Android Auto system. 

On a personal note, I mentioned the Car Play statistics to our older daughter last night. She said she has Car Play in her fairly recent vintage VW Turbo Beetle and her first task when getting into the car each morning is to connect to Car Play. She will give her Beetle to our sixteen-year-old granddaughter who tests for her driver's license in August. Our daughter, in turn, is looking to buy a new Toyota Tundra and it will have Car Play.

*****************************
Apple Earnings 

Apple reports earnings this next week and at least some folks are predicting a horrible quarter for Apple based on comments made by ATT and Verizon in their earnings calls this past week. My hunch: Apple could pull back significantly, regarless. It generally does after earnings are announced even in good quarters. 

Buy on the rumor. sell on the news. This past week, AAPL rose. 

*******************
Win, Win

If after earnings are released:

  • AAPL plunges: buying opportunity;
  • AAPL soars: feel relieved or feel happy

China Coal -- July 22, 2022

In hindsight, has any one person, other than Cathie Wood, been so incredibly wrong as Greta Thunberg? Okay, John Kerry.

Link here: https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2022/07/21/china-approves-458-million-coal-project-power-crisis/. 

And, apparently, coal traders are making money, hand over fist, as they say.

Sempra Partners With Mexico's Federal Electricity Commission -- July 22 , 2022

Link to Hart Energy

Sempra Infrastructure agreed to potentially develop an LNG terminal in Salina Cruz, Oaxaca, with Mexico's Federal Electricity Commission (CFE), a press release announced on July 21. 
The partnership signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on Jan. 31 to develop proposed projects, such as the Vista PacĂ­fico LNG projecct in Toopolobampo, Sinaloa. 
On July, 21, 2022, the companies expanded the MOU to explore the potential development of the Oaxaca LNG terminal, promoting economic growth and development in southern-southeastern Mexico.

Open book test. Are people trying too hard? 

SRE:

  • market cap: $48 billion
  • p/e: 50 (wow)
  • trades at $155
  • yields: 3%

AAPL:

  • p/e: 25
  • trades at $155
  • yields 0.6%
  • okay

With A Rolling 30-Year Horizon, ATT Or Amazon? July 22, 2022

Amazon: begins rollout of thousands of Rivian EVs; link here.

  • why would "city testing" be necessary?
  • rollout began in Los Angeles in early 2021
  • then San Francisco, Seattle
  • Amazon has also partnered with Dutch automaker Stellantis NV on software
  • the deal would also make Amazon the first customer for Stellantis' Ram electric delivery vehicle.

Amazon: enters health sector in big way, previously posted.

T:

  • $18/share
  • p/e: 6.8
  • div yield: 6.05%
  • market cap: $130 billion

For the archives.

AMZN:

  • $122/share
  • p/e: 60
  • div yield: --
  • market cap: $1.24 trillion

Later: link here:

****************************
Word For The Day

Shawm.

Yup, shawm. 

Great scrabble word. 

Shawm here, wiki entry.

Bombard here, wiki entry.

****************************
How Far Can A Bird Be Seen

Link here.

I continue to see several Swainson's hawks soaring above Colleyville, and Grapevine, TX, west of DFW. 

It appears I see them soaring at 5,000 feet altitude.

Recession? What Recession? July 22, 2022

Disruptive:

Cadillac Celestiq: link here.

  • $300,000+
  • should be in production by 2024, maybe "late 2023"
  • hand-built
  • if they sell two and the profit margin is $100,000 / car, GM will record a $200,000 profit
  • I can see the Cadillac Celestiq selling out in south Florida
  • it's also likely the White House will have three or more of these to serve as luxury sedans when picking up Prince MBS at the airport

********************************
Meanwhile, In Midland, Texas

Links everywhere. 

 

The Apple Page: Apple Adds To Its List Of Suppliers -- July 22, 2022

Link here.

Apple has added to its list of suppliers for the iPhone 14 series ...

Components from SG Micro have passed quality certification for the high-end iPhone 14 models, meaning the Chinese company has been greenlighted to supply components for the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max.

.... this is the first time SG Micro has provided components for high-end iPhones, implying that its technical capabilities have reached the "tier-1 level" required for use in premium consumer electronics.

.... some iPhone 14 components such as display panels are facing supply chain issues, but the analyst believes the issues will have a limited impact on upcoming mass production of iPhone 14 models, which are expected to be announced in September.

The lineup is expected to include the 6.1-inch iPhone 14, 6.7-inch iPhone 14 Max, 6.1-inch iPhone 14 Pro, and 6.7-inch iPhone 14 Pro Max, but there will be no "mini" device this year.

*************************
Meta

Meta is changing Facebook and Instagram to look and act more like TikTok. Yahoo!Finance.

TikTok took out Snap yesterday. Some think Instagram is next. 

*************************
Polio

Gradually, more is leaking out about polio in the US.  

Much of it may be spin.

Much of if, however, may be true. Spin and truth are not mutually exclusive. 

Putin Telephones Prince MBS Right After Biden Departs -- July 22, 2022

Somewhat unprecedented, apparently. 

Normally Prince MBS telephones Putin, not the other way around.

Disclaimer: I may have the story backward, who called whom, but the point remains valid regardless.

Apparently not about global oil, per se, but continued cooperation in all matters geopolitical.

I doubt Putin was calling for more oil. 

We may get links later, but I doubt it.

This is of interest to me because I never did get back to "one of the most perplexing stories ever." 

Maybe I'll finish that story this weekend. 

Sometimes I wait to complete those stories for a reason.

Today: Putin slashes key interest rate by 150 basis points. Link here. SHOCK MOVE. The US quibbles over 25, 50, 75 basis points. Do we hear one hundred. Putin goes full Monty with 150 basis points. But cuts.

Speaks volumes. Confirms my earlier thoughts about "most perplexing energy story."

The dots are starting to connect.

Companies Taking Advantage Of America's LNG Boom -- Oilprice -- July 22, 2022

Link to Alex Kimani.

Lots of data.

Matterhorn Express Pipeline:

  • from Waha, TX, to Katy, near Houston, TX
  • 2.5 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas
  • 490 miles; 42-inch pipeline (huge diameter -- almost four feet, think about that)
  • in service date: 2H24
  • consortium has reached FID: WhiteWater Midstream, LLC; EnLink Midstream, Devon Energy Corp, MPLX LP
  • another link: Matterhorn Express Pipeline

The Map Page -- July 22, 2022

Earlier this morning I told a reader it was a straight shot, six hours from Nuevo Laredo, Mexico, to Austin, Texas.  I was wrong. It's four hours.

Neuvo Laredo: state of Tamaulipas. Etymology unknown. 

Two links:

Nuevo Leon is a weirdly shaped state that managed to have its border drawn in a way that gave it just a little 9-mile border with the United States and more specifically the state of Texas.

In the US, we gerrymander voting districts.

In Mexico, they gerrymander entire states.

Elon Musk: brilliant. Attention to detail.


 

One more reason Tesla moved to Texas.

Also, steady stream of new landscapers to mow the lawns around his new facilities.

Week 29: July 17, 2022 -- July 23, 2022.

Top story of the week:

  • Joe Biden is still president.
    • tests positive for Covid-19; has the sniffles; will work from "the residence" indefinitely
      • says he also has cancer
    • Kamala Harris: identified as close contact
    • Nancy Pelosi: third in line

Top international non-energy story:

  • The Ukraine war drags on.

Top international energy story:

  •  Situation continues to worsen in Europe
  • Critical Russian turbine for Nord Stream 1 held up in Germany after being "returned" from Canada

Top national non-energy story:

Top national energy story:

  • WTI drops below $90; continuing its two-week slump
  • US EPA threatens to shut down the Permian over emissions

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

  • NDIC website appears to be nearly completely fixed; GIS map server up and running

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Five Wells Coming Off Confidential List Over The Weekend -- July 22, 2022

Schlumberger: profit more than doubles. Links everywhere.

  • net income: $959 million
  • EPS: 67 cents
  • a year earlier: $431 million and 30 cents/share
  • ups guidance

Switzerland: to release oil from its SPR

  • refined products from Germany not reaching Switzerland due to Rhine low water level

Germany: trying to save itself; bails out Uniper at a cost of €15 billion; peanuts.

  • government took 30% stake in Uniper
  • credit line to Uniper upped to €9 billion (previously €2 billion)

Fed: I'm old enough to remember when the Fed was purposely trying to spur inflation.

They succeeded

Nancy Pelosi: third in line. 

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

Far Side: link here.

WTI: $95.50 but had been lower overnight.

Natural gas: $7.959 --- that's about as close to an 8-handle as one can get. Think ISO-NE, ISO-NY.

Active rigs: 45 or thereabouts

Sunday, July 24, 2022: 23 for the month, 23 for the quarter, 362 for the year

  • 38675, conf,  CLR, Bang 6-4H,
  • 37498, conf, Petro-Hunt, State 159-94-25A-36-1HS,

Saturday, July 23, 2022: 21 for the month, 21 for the quarter, 360 for the year

  • 32113, conf, Slawson, Armada Federal 1 SLH,

Friday, July 22, 2022: 20 for the month, 20 for the quarter, 359 for the year

  • 38665, conf, Slawson, Armada Federal 8-14-13H,
  • 32112, conf, Slawson, Armada Federal 9-14-13TFH

RBN Energy: court decision helps supply access to LNG export facilities.

Europe is trying to wean itself off Russian natural gas, and few things would help it more than an expansion of U.S. LNG export capacity. But LNG projects don't just need long-term commitments for their output, they also need pipelines to transport natural gas from the Marcellus/Utica and other distant production areas to their coastal liquefaction plants. And, in case you hadn't noticed, new interstate gas pipelines face a lot of hurdles during the regulatory review process these days — getting a pipeline approved is tougher than snagging a Saturday morning tee time. Which brings us to, of all things, an important court ruling. In today's RBN blog, we discuss the implications of the DC Circuit's decision in City of Oberlin v. FERC

On July 8, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit (a.k.a. the DC Circuit) updated a decision that could have a significant impact on the supply of feedgas to LNG export facilities. In the case of City of Oberlin, Ohio v. FERC, the DC Circuit reversed an earlier finding that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) had not explained why export volumes on a proposed interstate pipeline project can be used to help justify approval of the new pipe projects. The case involved the city of Oberlin's challenge to FERC's approval of the NEXUS pipeline, carrying natural gas from the Utica Shale in eastern Ohio to the gas hub in Dawn, ON (among other destinations). The project sponsors had included the gas flows to Dawn as support for approval of the pipeline, to help meet the requirements of FERC’s “certificate policy” that a public benefit had to be shown for pipeline construction to be authorized.

In what the DC Circuit now refers to as its "Oberlin I" decision, the court, in 2019, found that FERC needed to explain why volumes on NEXUS going to Canada were a benefit to the U.S. public. That decision had been used by LNG opponents, such as Sierra Club, to claim that the same issue affects feedgas pipelines built to serve LNG export terminals. They argued that such pipelines shouldn’t receive certificates to allow construction or the eminent domain rights that automatically go with those certificates if they didn’t show a benefit to the U.S. public. The DC Circuit's decision last month (“Oberlin II”) reversed Oberlin I, finding that FERC has now explained itself well enough and that, yes, natural gas exports can provide public benefits in the U.S. So, does this reversal clear the way for LNG feedgas pipelines to be built without running into legal roadblocks? Well, it pretty much knocks down one potential roadblock, but that’s a start.