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Sunday, July 17, 2022

Days Of Crude Oil Supply Increases -- Excluding SPR -- July 17, 2022

Link here

25.9 days.

Up from 25.8 days.

Days of supply = supply projection - demand projection.

If supply increases and demand decreases, days of crude oil in storage will increase.

The decrease in volume in SPR storage is irrelevant, though analysts would like you to believe otherwise.  

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Terrible Maps

My Favorite Chart -- Inflation Worries Me Not -- July 17, 2022

Link here.

Data updated June 16, 2022, with data through May 31, 2022.

Why Would This Bother Me? July 17, 2022

I've been accumulating NVDA for the past year. 

Why would this bother me?

Folks who are bothered by this perplex me. 

Perhaps I'm easily perplexed. 


Personally, I'm thrilled, having accumulated NVDA for the past year. 

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Only Murders In The Building

Best "thing" since "Twin Peaks."

"Focus On Fracking" -- July 17, 2022

Link here.

The lede:

1,490,000 barrels per day of excess oil was produced in June even as OPEC was 1,060,000 bpd short of their quota… US oil supplies at new 18 year low, Strategic Petroleum Reserve at 36½ year low; largest drop in US gasoline and diesel demand since early 2020​ lockdown, ​largest drop in US gasoline production this year;

In round numbers, 1.5 million bopd of excess oil was produced in June, 2022, even as OPEC was 1.0 million bopd short of their credit.

From my perspective: still too much oil.  

This is interesting: WTI has turned positive late Sunday night -- up slightly; trading at $98.17. Less than $120 but beats $20.

The more important story: natural gas is up almost 2%; up 13 cents; trading at $7.144.  

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Dating

I'm "glad" I'm "over that stage," but there are times I miss the "freshness" of dating.

"You know the sharing of stories is kind of transactional. When someone gives you a story you owe them one of equal or greater value  in return." -- Jan, in "Only Murders in the Building," 1x4.

I love telling stories. But that's in the past. Lots of memories.

Apple Profit -- July 17, 2022

Link here.

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Investing

Link here.

Three Semiconductors That Could Go Parabolic -- July 17, 2022

About a week ago or so a reader asked about semiconductor chips in an article with a paywall: neither of us could access the article, so we did not know which semiconductor company was being "hyped." 

Today, on the way to looking up something else I came across this article over at nasdaq.com

Before going to that linked article I've updated the "foundries" at this site. One may want to google intel outsource samsung tsm. I'm not going to touch that with a 10-foot pole. Emotions run high on this issue. LOL.

But I digress. 

Now back to the linked nasdaq article, published by Motley Fool, July 14, 2022, just a couple of days ago.

Three semiconductor stocks that could go parabolic.

To the point:

  • TSMC (TSM)
  • Broadcom (AVGO)
  • Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)

This is probably the best summary I've seen in a long time. Needs to be archived.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

The Warren Buffett Portfolio -- July 17, 2022

Updates

July 19, 2022:July 19, 2022: BRK purchased another 1.94 million shares of OXY giving the company (BRK) an $11.4 billion stake and putting it nearer a threshold where it could record some of the oil company's earnings with its own. 

  • From below:
    • 143,162,392
    • add 1.94 million
    • = 145,102,392 shares at today's closing price, $62.82 = $9.115 billion, so I don't know the reason for the delta, $9.115 billion vs $11.4 billion (warrants?)

Original Post

BRK: 52 stocks in the portfolio. I read "53" everywhere, but count them at this link. I must have missed one. Unless the 53rd is "BRK" itself.

  • except for AAPL, not one of the other tickers will move the needle over the next five years, with possibly the exception of one (CVX)
  • dollar value, percent of total portfolio:
    • AAPL: 38.4%
    • CVX: 8.2%
    • BAC: 10.7%
    • K: 7.5%
    • AXP: 7.1%

Nothing else comes close.

Two questions / observations: 

  • why does BRK hold 45+ tickers that have no impact whatsoever on his portfolio. I think I have an idea, but I've never seen it discussed. 
  • along that same line, why 40 tickers with less than 1% of entire portfolio. Talk about a lot of distracting background noise.

But this is the bigger observation.

My hunch: Buffett thinks about this every waking moment and in his dreams:

  • in round numbers, he owns 20% of OXY, and possibly more if one throws in warrants, etc; and,
  • despite owning all that OXY, it still represents only 2.8% of his total portfolio (not including BRK shares)
  • in other words, for all the OXY he has bought and all the ink spilled on his obsession with OXY, it doesn't amount to a heck of a lot in the big scheme of things (yet);
  • he could sell forty of his "non-exciting" tickers and buy all of OXY at a huge discount right now
Table:

Ticker

Shares

1Q22

Percent PTFOLIO

Rounds to 0%

Less than 0.5%

Less than 1%

Less than 5%

ATVI

74,187,400

5,742,104,760

1.758%




1

ALLY

8,969,420

346,847,471

0.106%

1

1

1


AMZN

533,300

1,147,565,606

0.351%

1

1

1


AXP

151,610,700

23,232,823,668

7.114%





AON

4,396,000

1,154,873,160

0.354%

1

1

1


AAPL

911,347,617

125,392,318,623

38.394%





BAC

1,032,852,006

34,972,368,923

10.708%





BK

74,346,864

3,254,162,237

0.996%



1

1

BYD

225,000,000

7,499,250,000

2.296%




1

CE

7,880,998

1,187,902,829

0.364%

1

1

1

1

CHTR

3,828,941

1,834,177,607

0.562%



1

1

CVX

159,178,117

26,713,271,595

8.179%





C

52,244,797

2,748,428,651

0.842%



1

1

KO

400,000,000

24,392,000,000

7.469%





DVA

36,095,570

3,408,504,675

1.044%




1

DEO

227,750

41,511,993

0.013%

1

1

1

1

FND

4,780,000

328,051,400

0.100%

1

1

1

1

GM

62,045,847

2,196,422,984

0.673%



1

1

GL

6,353,727

594,454,698

0.182%

1

1

1

1

HPQ

121,092,418

4,195,852,284

1.285%




1

ITOCF

81,304,200

2,309,039,280

0.707%



1

1

JNJ

327,100

57,890,158

0.018%

1

1

1

1

KHC

325,634,818

12,494,607,967

3.826%




1

KR

57,985,263

2,821,562,909

0.864%



1

1

LILA

2,630,792

24,361,134

0.007%

1

11

1

1

LILAK

1,284,020

11,812,984

0.004%

1

1

1

1

FWONK

7,722,451

481,803,718

0.148%

1

1

1

1

LSXMA

20,207,680

812,146,659

0.249%

1

1

1

1

LSXMK

43,208,291

1,729,627,889

0.530%



1

1

MKL

424,343

565,683,166

0.173%

1

1

1

1

MMC

404,911

60,675,913

0.019%

1

1

1

1

MA

3,986,648

1,340,231,325

0.410%

1

1

1

1

MCK

2,921,975

943,388,849

0.289%

1

1

1

1

MDLZ

578,000

35,367,820

0.011%

1

1

1

1

MCO

24,669,778

7,136,226,682

2.185%




1

NU

107,118,784

408,122,567

0.125%

1

1

1

1

OXY

143,162,392

9,056,452,918

2.773%




1

PARA

68,947,760

2,250,454,886

0.689%



1

1

PG

315,400

44,720,566

0.014%

1

1

1

1

RH

2,170,000

582,862,000

0.178%

1

1

1

1

RPRX

1,496,372

59,136,621

0.018%

1

1

1

1

SNOW

6,125,376

866,679,450

0.265%

1


1

1

SPY

39,400

15,351,422

0.005%

1

1

1

1

STNE

10,695,448

99,788,530

0.031%

1

1

1

1

STOR

14,754,811

385,248,115

0.118%

1

1

1

1

TMUS

5,242,000

660,701,680

0.202%

1

1

1

1

UPS

59,400

10,159,776

0.003%

1

1

1

1

USB

144,064,330

7,088,519,899

2.170%




1

VOO

43,000

15,394,860

0.005%

1

1

1

1

VRSN

12,815,613

2,121,752,888

0.650%



1

1

VZ

1,380,111

68,356,898

0.021%

1

1

1

1

V

8,297,460

1,651,443,464

0.506%



1

1











326,592,466,157

 

29

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