Focus On Fracking -- July 10, 2022

Wow, this caught me by surprise.

"Focus on Fracking" has already been posted. 

The lede:

• Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 36½ year low; total oil + oil products supplies at a 13½ year low.

The following is a common theme in "Focus on Fracking" and one which is quite entertaining, for lack of a better word:

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,438,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending July 1st, an average of 228,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil than our refineries processed during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 342,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US.... 

.... so based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures from the EIA for the week ending July 1st appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports and from oilfield production was 453,000 barrels per day less than what was added to storage plus what our oil refineries reported they used during the week… 

... to account for that disparity between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just inserted a (+453,000) barrel per day figure onto line 13 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet in order to make the reported data for the daily supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil,” thus suggesting there must have been an omission or error of that magnitude in this week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed.... 

... however, since most everyone treats these weekly EIA reports as gospel, and since these figures often drive oil pricing, and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it's published, and just as it's watched & believed to be reasonably accurate by most everyone in the industry...(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil, see this EIA explainer)…. 

Raising The Bar -- France -- July 10, 2022

Link here. 

Nuclear --> natural gas --> oil --> coal --> lignite --> galettes de vache. 

ERCOT: held again, with plenty to spare.

• link here.
• late last week, forecast suggested brownouts and blackouts in Texas for the four-day weekend (Friday -- Monday) -- wind was not going to be adequate
• third of four days: ERCOT did just fine, thank you.
• as much electricity at peak to spare as ISO-NE's total hydro and renewable combined.

Sunday, July 10, 2022

Errors, omissions and commissions will be corrected later. Not yet proofread. Proofreader is traveling. I'm off to the pool. 

"Word for the day": HIMARS.

************************
The Apple Page

Apple: performance and pricing staggering (in a good way; prices have actually decreased significantly).

Third anniversary of Apple discontinuing the 12-inch MacBook: link here.

• that same day three years ago:  refreshes to the MacBook Air and the 13-inch MacBook Pro 
• price for that 12-inch Macbook started at $1,299 
• today:the new MacBook Air with M1 chip: $999 ($300 less expensive than the MacBook three years ago)
• the new MacBook Air with M2 chip: $1199 ($100 less expensive than the MacBook three years ago)

Benchmark speed for MacBook Air with M2 chip: link here.

• scores almost equal to the MacBook Pro ($1199 for the new MacBook Air vs $1299 or $1999 for the MacBook Pro depending on screen size )
• outperforms the base model Mac Pro tower:
• base model, Mac Pro tower: $5,999
• rack: $6,499
• does not include keyboard, mouse, monitor

Comment: The result also confirms that the M2 MacBook Air outperforms the base model Mac Pro tower with an 8‑core Intel Xeon W processor despite costing nearly $5,000 less. While that is not an apples-to-apples comparison, it is nevertheless a testament to the impressive performance of Apple silicon chips in more affordable Macs compared to Intel.

Again, best bang for the buck for most (all/) high school students, all college students and most (all?) post-graduate students: the M1 MacBook Air ($999) or the brand new, flying off the shelf M2 MacBook Air ($1199). 

Social media: Intel continues to fall behind. AMD stumbles. TSMC/Apple firing on all cylinders. Of course, for the average user, these "specs" don't mean much. Non-Apple computers easily compete with Apple computers on average user experience. However, when one considers the entire Apple ecosystem, there really is no comparison.

**************************
Atmospheric CO2

The very first time I posted atmospheric CO2 on the blog was back in December 22, 2016, for data for the previous month, November, 2016:

Most recent data, data for May, 2022, almost six years later:

If the y-axis was zero to 1,000, the change would not be seen by the average viewer.

********************************
Investing

Billionaire investor Howard Marks published memos for 32 years. "MnkeDaniel" posts Howard Marks' key concepts over at twitter today.

Here are the first two:

1. Absence of disaster:

• the best foundation for above-average returns is the absence of disaster.
• while most people seek phenomenal returns that outshine every other investment, a little above average is the secret.
• the longer your time horizon, the more important this gets
• I would add that a "divorce" should be included as an example of a "disaster."

2. The role of demand

• in economy theory, the "homo economicus" is a rational investor who makes risk-based decisions.
• in reality, this is rarely the case. Investors are irrational.
• investors get overexcited and frustrated.
• and since demand drives prices, this is an opportunity.

********************************
More Advice

From Jose Chalhoub @ globaloil risks: read good books and learn foreign languages. Period. 

I remain on schedule to read one book each week this summer. Current list maintained here. Two new books arrive from Amazon this week. 

And, I have a 655-day streak with Duolingo learning Spanish. I have not missed one day of at least ten minutes with Duolingo since starting the program 655 days ago. That's all Duolingo recommends: at least ten minutes each day. 

********************************
Covid: Long Haul

This is huge; these two stories broke over night.

From The Boston Globe, July 8, 2022: researchers may have found a / the (?) biomarker for long Covid.

• discovered by researchers at Brigham and Women's Hospital and Massachusetts General Hospital. 
• I'm lovin' it. I have strong emotional links to Mass General.
  
• Brigham and Women and Mass General have recently merged, now one entity, and is advertising heavily on the PGA tour.

From CNBC, July 8, 2022: high stakes, $1.2 billion study, has enrolled nearly 40,000 patients for study of long Covid.

• study to be called: Recover
• to complete enrollment by year-end
• multiple hospitals involved
• it appears the first "beneficiary" of an earlier study was New York University Langone
• no doubt Big Pharma will be involved
• a google search of covid study recover will lead readers to hospitals involved in the study

Long haul: already show to affect public service employees longer and worse than private service employees -- sources. 

****************************
Joke For The Day

Remember: with Norm MacDonald, it was never the punchline. It was the journey.

US Natural Gas Exports -- July 10, 2022

When tracking "natural gas" exports be sure to make distinction between total natural gas exports (which include LNG and pipeline to Mexico and Canada) and LNG which generally (?) does not include Mexico or Canada. 

From the blog, February 27, 2017, five years ago, EIA forecast:

Staggering:

Now:

• EIA, US natural gas exports, in trillion cubic per year:
• 2016: actual from chart above, 2.0; from EIA site, 2.3
• 2017: forecast from chart above, 2.1; from EIA site, actual: 3.2
• 2018: forecast from chart above, 3.0; from EIA site, actual: 3.6
• 2019: forecast from chart above, 4.0; from EIA site, actual: 4.7
• 2020: forecast from chart above, 5.7; from EIA site, actual: 5.3 (Covid-19 global lock downs)
• 2021: forecast from chart above, 5.85; from EIA site, actual 6.7 (coming out of global lock down)

Currently:

• it is easy to find data for LNG exports, but I am unable to find data for natural gas exports for current year, 2022. My hunch: trending toward, perhaps exceeding, 7.0.
• Later: see first note. Data is posted here. January - April, 2022, data posted; exactly 120 days. Doing the math, annualizes out 7.2.
• however, Freeport outage: could strand 2.0 billion cfpd (x 180 = 0.36 trillion for the year)

In 2016: EIA could not have foreseen --

• Covid-19 global lock downs, 2020 - 2021
• Russia shuts down natural gas deliveries to Europe; Putin's War, beginning, February, 2022
• French nuclear power in disarray; as many as 50% of French reactors off line; France bails out EDF;
• EU labels natural gas as a "green" energy

Initial Production For Wells Comiing Off Confidential List This Next Week -- July 10, 2022

The wells:

• 38673, conf, CLR, Bang 8-4H, Cedar Coulee, no production data,
• 37146, conf, Hess, BL-Olson-155-96-0310H-2, Beaver Lodge, lot 3 section 3-155-96;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2022	12501	51418
4-2022	8699	28522
3-2022	25289	93289
2-2022	19472	40251
1-2022	15101	15010

• 38696, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Harstad 9-1TFH-155-91, Stanley, no production data, 
• 38695, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Behr 16-21 2H-LL-155-91, Stanley, no production data, 
• 38176, conf, Hess, AN-Norby-LE-152-94-0409H-1, Antelope, lot 1 section 4-152-94;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2022	17698	24340
4-2022	18823	28837
3-2022	29514	41065
2-2022	27339	32768
1-2022	37712	23041

• 37145, conf, Hess, BL-Olson-155-96-0310H-3, Beaver Lodge, lot 3 section 3-155-96:
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2022	12736	70752
4-2022	10481	37727
3-2022	21998	55979
2-2022	23594	44741
1-2022	28331	51460

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- July 10, 2022

Comment: it appears the weather must have very bad mid-January, 2022.

Wednesday, July 20, 2022: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 355 for the year
26368, conf, Slawson, Armada Federal 2-14-13H,

Tuesday, July 19, 2022: 15 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 354 for the year
None.

Monday, July 18, 2022: 15 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 354 for the year
38673, conf, CLR, Bang 8-4H,

Sunday, July 17, 2022: 14 for the month, 14 for the quarter, 353 for the year
37146, conf, Hess, BL-Olson-155-96-0310H-2,

Saturday, July 16, 2022: 13 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 352 for the year
None.

Friday, July 15, 2022: 13 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 352 for the year
None.

Thursday, July 14, 2022: 13 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 352 for the year
None.

Wednesday, July 13, 2022: 13 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 352 for the year
None. 

Tuesday, July 12, 2022: 13 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 352 for the year
None. 

Monday, July 11, 2022: 13 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 352 for the year
38696, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Harstad 9-1TFH-155-91, 

Sunday, July 10, 2022: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 351 for the year
38695, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Behr 16-21 2H-LL-155-91,
38176, conf, Hess, AN-Norby-LE-152-94-0409H-1, 

Saturday, July 9, 2022: 10 for the month, 10 for the quarter, 349 for the year
37145, conf, Hess, BL-Olson-155-96-0310H-3,