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Tuesday, July 5, 2022

We Live In Interesting Times -- July 5, 2022

Link here.

The CPC is occasionally updated here

Let's see how many story lines come to mind. 

Since when have the Russians been worried about the environment? LOL. 

Driftwood -- July 5, 2022

Link here.


Tellurian Driftwood LNG has been mentioned on the blog several times. This might be one of the more comprehensive posts regarding Driftwood LNG

But this is the post. Link here.

Reminder:

Qatar:

  • capacity to reach 126 million tonnes yearly by 2027
  • current capacity: 77 million tonnes, 2022
  • delta: 126 - 77 = 49 million tonnes
  • Driftwood: 27.6 million tonnes per annum

Tea leaves: US energy is going to blow away the rest of the world over the nest two decades. With or without renewable energy. 

WTI Plunges; Drops Below $100; No New Permits; Eight Permits Renewed; Four Permits Canceled -- July 5, 2022

New omicron subvariant, Covid-19: BA.5. Links everywhere; here's one

Is Boris history? Both on the same day:

  • his Treasury secretary resigned;
  • his Secretary of State for Health and Social Care resigned

Windfall profits: Russia to hit Gazprom with $20 billion windfall tax.

  • Putin's War is getting expensive.

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Back to the Bakken

NDIC GIS map still not up. Down for more than a year now.

WTI: $99.50.

Active rigs: 43 or thereabouts.

No new permits.

Eight permits reenewed:

  • Enerplus: eight Fort Berthold permits in Dunn County; Fort Berthold 148-94-...lot 4 section 19-148-94.

Four permits canceled:

  • EOG: four Burke permits in Mountrail County.

WW-III -- Russia Ready To Mobilize -- Is Anyone Paying Attention? -- July 5, 2022

I was going to write this earlier today and then forgot. 

"We" are clearly at the beginning stages of WWiii -- or WW III -- or World War III. 

I can provide several data points, but this is really all I need. 

Peter Zeihan, top geopolitical strategist, has it exactly right. 

Link here.  

Stephen Stills, David Crosby, Graham Nash Quietly Return To Spotify -- July 5, 2022

Something you won't see reported by mainstream media or the Hollywood elite today (or ever).

Link here


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The Movie Page

Ya gotta love Texas.

A standard Movie Screen differs in size due to the way they are installed in different auditoriums. Generally, the more seats in an auditorium, the more screen space.

Films are typically 30 or 90 feet wide by 40 to 30 feet tall with the exception of IMAX movies. 

I had to look that up, because my wife and our oldest granddaughter went to see Top Gun 2 yesterday evening. Of course, they entered the multi-plex theater through the front door, but upon exiting, our granddaughter showed my wife the "back exit."

Stepping out of the back exit, they were standing directly in front of our granddaughter's apartment. 

In other words, our granddaughter has a "big screen" measuring some 45 feet wide by 30 feet tall right out her living room door. Dwarfs my 27-inch big-screen Apple monitor. LOL. 

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Real Estate

A multi-millionaire (billionaire) out of San Diego, CA, just moved into a McMansion across the road from our family's summer home on Flathead Lake, Montana.

The summer home was built in the 1970's for about $90,000, I suppose. 

The new owners of the McMansion (Zillow: $4.5 million) says our family's summer home is the "nicest" home on this particular development. 

I have an idea how my sister can monetize the family summer home. LOL.

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The Catholic Church Today

You Can Lead A Horse To Water, But You Can't Make It Drink -- This Is Not An Investment Site -- July 5, 2022

Updates

July 5, 2022:

Original Post  

The usual disclaimers apply. For educational and entertainment purposes only.

Apple: still working on larger display and more powerful chip for its flagship iMac; link here

Source, not verified by Apple:

Apple is working on at least two ‌iMac‌ models, likely using the "M3" series of chips. Gurman says that Apple will likely launch an updated 24-inch ‌iMac‌ featuring the standard M3 chip in 2023 and is continuing work on a high-end ‌iMac‌ model.

Source, not verified by Apple:

A 24-inch ‌iMac‌ with the M2 chip has been missing from Gurman's forecast of upcoming M2 Macs on Apple's product road map, which includes new Mac mini models with ‌M2‌ and ‌M2‌ Pro chips, new 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro models with ‌M2‌ Pro and ‌M2‌ Max chips, and a new Mac Pro tower with ‌M2‌ Ultra and "‌M2‌ Extreme" chips. 

Gurman expects an updated 24-inch ‌iMac‌ to be among the first ‌M3‌ series of Macs, which will include an updated 13-inch MacBook Air, an all-new 15-inch ‌MacBook Air‌, and potentially a new 12-inch notebook that is "still in early development."

Chips, semiconductor: link here

How many transistors on a chip? Apple is still the leader -- by a wide margin.

The following is from wiki, which recently updated, has only updated to Apple's M1 Ultra, not mentioning the M2, or the M3.

June 28, 2022: transistors on a chip. Apple still #1. 

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Amazon Web Services (AWS),

This is for those who think Amazon / Jeff Bezos only sells books. 

Wiki entry. 

Services:

As of 2021, AWS comprises over 200 products and services including computing, storage, networking, database, analytics, application services, deployment, management, machine learning, mobile, developer tools, RobOps and tools for the Internet of Things

The most popular include Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2), Amazon Simple Storage Service (Amazon S3), Amazon Connect, and AWS Lambda (a serverless function enabling serverless ETL e.g. between instances of EC2 & S3).

Growth:

In April 2015, Amazon.com reported AWS was profitable, with sales of $1.57 billion in the first quarter of the year and $265 million of operating income. Founder Jeff Bezos described it as a fast-growing $5 billion business; analysts described it as "surprisingly more profitable than forecast."

In October, Amazon.com said in its Q3 earnings report that AWS's operating income was $521 million, with operating margins at 25 percent. AWS's 2015 Q3 revenue was $2.1 billion, a 78% increase from 2014's Q3 revenue of $1.17 billion. 2015 Q4 revenue for the AWS segment increased 69.5% y/y to $2.4 billion with a 28.5% operating margin, giving AWS a $9.6 billion run rate. 

In 2015, Gartner estimated that AWS customers are deploying 10x more infrastructure on AWS than the combined adoption of the next 14 providers.

Notable customers:
Notable customers include NASA, the Obama presidential campaign of 2012, and Netflix. 
In October 2013, it was revealed that AWS was awarded a $600M contract with the CIA. 
In 2019, it was reported that more than 80% of Germany's listed DAX companies use AWS. 
In August 2019, the U.S. Navy said it moved 72,000 users from six commands to an AWS cloud system as a first step toward pushing all of its data and analytics onto the cloud. 
In 2021, DISH Network announced they will develop and launch its 5G network on AWS. 
In October 2021, it was reported that spy agencies and government departments in the UK such as GCHQ, MI5, MI6, and the Ministry of Defence, have contracted AWS to host their classified materials. 
Think Lady Densch, James Bond and 007.

Market share

As of 2021 Q4, AWS has 33% market share for cloud infrastructure while the next two competitors Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud have 21%, and 10%.

Vostok

I track the various oil plays around the world at the sidebar at the right. 

Add another one: Vostok Oil.

Link here.

  • the field: Payyakhskoye field (we will track it as Vostov, for now)
  • Russia's far north
  • massive oil project proposed
  • $180 billion project
  • could account for as much as 2% of daily global output
  • max production possibly by end of decade
  • depends on western technology to get best results
  • right now, western companies are steering clear due to sanction (Putin's War)
  • reminder: Russia's economy is small than Italy's
  • from the linked article:

Vostok Oil has been the Kremlin’s big hope to boost production. A cluster of fields near Russia’s Arctic coast in the central region of Krasnoyarsk Krai, the project is important to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who wants to improve infrastructure in the remote region and develop the Northern Sea shipping route to Asian markets.

The project would deliver a highly desirable grade of light crude that is easier to refine and would compete with some U.S. and Middle Eastern grades. Russia’s flagship Urals blend typically has a higher sulfur content, which makes it more technically challenging for refiners to handle.

Mid-Year: US Hits 12-Million BOPD Production -- July 5, 2022

See this post for background with regard to quibbling. From that post:

Quibbling, it gets tedious:

Less than a month later, link here:

Several Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- July 5, 2022

XOM: sees $5.5 billion refining windfall. Link to Rigzone. 

China, Saudi, link here:

Saudi Arabia reserves, link here. I'm shocked. I'm shocked.

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Back to the Bakken

Far Side: link here.

WTI:

Active rigs: 44 or thereabouts

Wednesday, July 6, 2022: 6 for the month, 6 for the quarter, 345 for the year 

  • 38245, conf, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-4H, 

Tuesday, July 5, 2022: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 344 for the year
  • None.
Monday, July 4, 2022: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 344 for the year 
  • 38246, conf, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-14H, 
Sunday, July 3, 2022: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 343 for the year 
  • 38632, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Jon R 16-21 2TFH
  • 38247, conf, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-5H,
  • 38177, conf, Hess, AN-Norby-LE-152-94-0409H-10, 
Saturday, July 2, 2022: 1 for the month, 1 for the quarter, 340 for the year 
  • None.

RBN Energy: Europe seeks FFSRUs to boost LNG import capacity, and fast

Europe’s push to reduce and eventually eliminate its reliance on Russia for natural gas has pushed LNG imports back into the forefront of Europe’s long-term energy plan. This year, with European natural gas prices trading above Asian prices, the continent has been able to attract an incredible amount of LNG, with imports at record levels this winter and sitting just shy of those records this spring. That helped mitigate some of the risks to energy reliability from Russian aggression, at least until the Freeport LNG outage and the latest Russian gas curtailments, but import capacity in Europe was maxed out last winter and more LNG imports can’t happen in the long term without more import capacity. Most of the LNG terminals in Europe are operating at full capacity or don’t have enough market access on the other side of the pipe to take more. While plans to build new import terminals are underway, those take time, and lots of it, so Europe is also pursuing a more immediate option, floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs) — basically, an LNG import terminal on a ship. In today’s RBN blog, we take a look at all things FSRU, from what and where they are to the recent deals with European offtakers.