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Monday, July 4, 2022

Focus On Fracking -- July 4, 2022

Link here

From July 3, 2022, the lede:

US oil supplies at an 18 year low, SPR at a 36 year low, total oil + oil products supplies at a 13½ year low.

From the update: 

The US oil data reported this week by the US Energy Information Administration includes updated data for the week ending June 17th, which should have been published last week but wasn't due to a hardware failure, and the new data for the week ending June 24th, published on schedule this week...while we're going to cover that most recent update as we usually do, we'll also try to include the most important changes for the week ending June 17th in our narrative... The EIA's data for the week ending June 24th showed that after a big increase in our refinery throughput and a decrease in our oil imports, and even after the addition of more than a half million barrels per day in oil supplies that could not be accounted for and another big oil withdrawal from the SPR, we had to pull oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for the 5h time in 7 weeks, and for the 19th time over the past 31 weeks…our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 228,000 barrels per day to an average of 5,998,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 759,000 barrels per day during the week ending June 17th, while our exports of crude oil fell by 192,000 barrels per day to 3,380,000 barrels per day, after falling by 153,000 barrels per day during the prior week, which meant that our trade in oil worked out to a net import average of 2,618,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending June 24th, 36,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the week ending June 17th…over the same period, production of crude from US wells reportedly rose by 100,000 barrels per day to 12,100,000 barrels per day, after being unchanged during the week ending June 17th, and hence our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil and from domestic well production appears to have totaled an average of 14,718,000 barrels per day during the June 24th reporting week… 
Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,666,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending June 24th, an average of 403,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil than our refineries processed during the week ending June 17th, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net of 1,387,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US, after an oil storage drawdown of 1,026,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending June 17th...so based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures from the EIA for the week ending June 24th appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from storage, from net imports and from oilfield production was 560,000 barrels per day less than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week…to account for that disparity between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just inserted a (+560,000) barrel per day figure onto line 13 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet in order to make the reported data for the daily supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus suggesting there must have been an omission or error of that magnitude in this week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed....even so, since most everyone treats these weekly EIA reports as gospel, and since these figures often drive oil pricing, and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it's published, and just as it's watched & believed to be reasonably accurate by most everyone in the industry...(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil, see this EIA explainer)….

Off The Net -- July 4, 2022

We spent thirteen (my wife says fourteen) consecutive years overseas -- Germany, England, Turkey - permanent assignments and many more places -- Japan, Italy, Morocco to name a few -- on temporary duty. The Italy "assignment" was spectacular, two words: the Dolomites. Named after the French mineralogist who "discovered" / described the mineral, calcium magnesium carbonate.

We spent more holidays -- like July 4th -- in Paris than any other city, then, before, and since. 

We visited Paris so often our two daughters often said, "no more." LOL. 

This July 4th I'm reminded of our times in Paris with a number of YouTube videos (all the same music, sorry, not sorry).

Midnight In Paris, Intro


Tatiana Eva-Marie, Avalon Jazz Band

Recession? What Recession? Foxconn Raises Outlook -- Reuters -- July 4, 2022

Apple is tracked here.

EVs are tracked here.

Through those two sites Foxconn is tracked indirectly, as is TSMC.

A reader caught this and sent it my way this morning: Foxconn raises full-year outlook on strong tech demand. Data points:

  • full name: Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd
  • world's largest contract electronics maker
  • raised its full-year business outlook
  • based on strong tech sales from smartphones
  • company's June, 2022 (2Q22) sales jumped 31% from a year earlier
  • this is a record high for the month of June (last month of the 2Q22)
  • smartphones: make up the bulk of its revenue
  • Micron had opposite guidance/outlook -- but raised its dividend, nonetheless
  • Foxconn: saw "significant growth" compared with a year earlier

My Favorite Chart -- July 4, 2022

Link here

Data through May 31, 2022.

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The Entertainment Page

Hulu original: Only Murders In The Building.

  • weekly, every Tuesday
  • second season has just begun; second episode last week
  • third episode, tomorrow night
  • strong language; very adult themes; sort of woke

IMDB.

Wiki entry.

Steve Martin.

Martin Short.

Selena Gomez:

  • triple threat
  • born down the street from us: Grand Prairie, TX
As of 2017, Gomez has sold over seven million albums and 22 million singles worldwide, according to Billboard
Named Billboard's Woman of the Year in 2017. 
Time magazine named her one of the 100 most influential people in the world in 2020. 
The most followed musician and actress on Instagram
Gomez's other ventures include makeup, clothing, handbag and fragrance lines. She has worked with many charitable organizations and served as a UNICEF ambassador since age 17. 
She earned her high-school diploma through homeschooling in May 2010.
Gomez was born when her mother was 16 years old. 
The family had financial troubles throughout Gomez's childhood, her mother struggling to provide for the pair (after parents divorced, when Gomez was five years old). 
At one point, Gomez recalls that they had to search for quarters just to get gas for their car. 
Her mother later recalled that the two would frequently walk to their local dollar store to buy spaghetti for dinner. 
Gomez has said, "I was frustrated that my parents weren't together, and never saw the light at the end of the tunnel where my mom was working hard to provide a better life for me. I'm terrified of what I would have become if I'd stayed [in Texas]." 
She later added that her mother "was really strong around me. Having me at 16 had to have been a big responsibility. She gave up everything for me, had three jobs, supported me, sacrificed her life for me." 
Gomez had a close relationship with her grandparents as a child and appeared in various pageants. Her grandparents often took care of her while her parents finished their schooling, and she has said they "raised her" until she found success in show business.

Whataburger Day -- July 4, 2022

Trending on my twitter feed this a.m.: Whataburger

  • Texas: Whataburger
  • California: In 'N Out
  • no contest

Oil: it may be a holiday in the US ... but ...

  • WTI: up 0.67%; up 73 cents; trading at $109.20
  • Brent: up similarly; trading at $112.60

Tesla:

  • shutting down for two weeks in Berlin
  • link here;
  • re-tooling
  • can't get the necessary hiring

German wind: Nordex closes the last German wind blade factory -- uneconomic

  • Germany wants to double wind installations in the year ahead

California:

  • link here;
  • state gasoline tax increases by 3 cents from 51 cents to 54 cents
  • the state will send upwards of $1,000 to residents to help cover the cost of gasoline
  • California's average gasoline price: $6.27
  • average means many folks paying much more
  • nationwide average: $4.84
  • by the way, that $1,000-inflation relief: the funds will arrive next year.

Chips:

  • South Korea's stock of chips is growing amid demand concerns; link here.
  • GM continues to struggle to get enough chips

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The Book Page

Charlie Munger: reads 500 pages / day

His top 20 books (which I assume changes periodically); in bold, the ones I've read

  • In The Plex: How Google Thinks, Works, and Shapes Our Lives, Stephen Levy
  • The Outsiders, William Thorndike
  • Influence, Robert Cialdini
  • Living Within Limits, Garrett Hardin
  • The Warren Buffett Portfolio, Robert Hagstrom
  • Damn Right, Janet Lowe
  • Benjamin Franklin, Walter Isaacson
  • Man's Search for Meaning, Vicktor Frankl
  • Models of My Life, Herb Simon
  • Genome, Matt Ridley
  • Titan: The Life of John D. Rockefeller, Sr, Ron Chernow
  • Andrew Carnegie, Joseph Wall
  • The Wealth and Power of Nations, David Landes
  • Guns, Germs, and Steel, Jared Diamond (over-rated, but "everyone" recommends this book)
  • The Selfish Gene, Richard Dawkins (near the top on my list)
  • Master of the Game, Connie Bruck
  • Benjamin Franklin, Carl Van Doren
  • The Third Chimpanzee, Jared Diamond (near the top of my list; way under-recommended; if you have time for only one Jared Diamond book, this is it)
  • Deep Simplicity, John Gribbin (I've read several John Gribbin books; don't recall this one)
  • Ice Age, John Griffin (ditto)

EV Scorecard Update -- Foxconn - Lordstown - Endurance Pickup -- July 4, 2022

EV scorecard.

Axios: one month ago.

Taiwan-based Foxconn, known officially as Hon Hai Technology Group, reached a deal last week with Lordstown Motors to acquire the EV startup’s sprawling plant in northeast Ohio, where Foxconn has agreed to produce Lordstown's Endurance pickup.