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Saturday, July 2, 2022

CLR's Springfield FIU Wells In Brooklyn Oil Field Have Been Completed And Have Begun Production -- July 2, 2022

Later: a reader asked whether small mom-and-pop mineral owners participate in FIU (federal) wells or if royalties only extend to federal government. That was an interesting question. They've written CLR but have received no answer. Maybe a reader knows. I certainly don't. First time this has come up.

Original Post

This should be exciting for a number of small mom-and-pop mineral owners. 

Springfield FIU, Brooklyn oil field, tracked here;

SEG Williston, LLC -- A New Operator In The Bakken? July 2, 2022

From the NDIC hearing dockets agenda, July, 2022, a new operator? SEG Williston, LLC.

From bizapedia:

  • filing date: February 25, 2022
  • age of company: five months
  • mailing address:

100 River Bluff Dr Ste 500
Little Rock, AR 72202-2285
one contact on record: Stephens Williston, LLC, from Little Rock, AR

Tesla Vehicle Production And Deliveries -- July 2, 2022

Business wire.

AUSTIN, Texas, July 2, 2022 – In the second quarter, we produced over 258,000 vehicles and delivered over 254,000 vehicles, despite ongoing supply chain challenges and factory shutdowns beyond our control. 
June 2022 was the highest vehicle production month in Tesla’s history.

Tesla will post its financial results for the second quarter of 2022 after market close on Wednesday, July 20, 2022. 

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The Movie Page

Wow, I did not know this. 

Costumes, Funny Face, 1957: Edith Head.

Wow. 

The movie is all about fashion, and the producer / director chose .... Ms Edith Head

The personalities associated with this movie -- simply amazing. But Ms Edith Head seems, to me, to be at the top of the list. And the list includes Audrey Hepburn.

I'm not sure if I've ever watched this movie or even parts of it, but now that I'm seeing what I'm seeing on TCM, I am blown away by the movie. The fashion really is extraordinary. 

Edith Head, born 1897, and died, 1981.

Making America Great Again -- In Fifteen Years -- July 2, 2022

Amtrak.

Link here.


By 2035, Amtrak plans to add train service between Detroit and Toronto with a 4:46 travel time. In China, this would take about an hour. To wait 15 years for a train that's almost 4 hours longer than our geopolitical competition is regressive.

No, not regressive. Criminal.  

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Never Open On Sundays

#1 for eighth year in a row

No political agenda. 

Simply great sandwiches. 

And great service. 

With a smile. 

I haven't been to a fast food restaurant "in ages." Prices are approaching what I used to pay for a four-star experience in San Diego. 

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The Book Page

Best thing I ever did this summer: subscribe to Science. A weekly. Every week.

Second best thing I did this summer: commit to reading one new book each week. 

Meanwhile, Andrew Keen things we should all read Peter Zeihan, c. 2022.

Saudi's Foreign Exchange Reserves Flat -- July 2, 2022

Link here.

Record revenue, but yet foreign exchange reserves flat. 

One can guess top two reasons.

Global Recoverable Oil Decreases; US Recoverable Oil Increases -- July 2, 2022

From Houston Chronical, July 1, 2022:

The total estimate of the world’s recoverable oil is down 9 percent this year, though estimates are up in the U.S. 
Recoverable oil is the amount companies could produce using available technology, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. 
While most countries will lose oil resources this year, the U.S. will add 8 billion barrels to its discovered resources
Overall the U.S. is second for total recoverable oil with an estimated 193 billion barrels while Saudi Arabia is first with 275 billion barrels.

If one assumes, Saudi Arabia's numbers are exaggerated, and the Bakken is underestimated, the US, in fact, may be threatening Saudi Arabia for the lead. 

And, of course, there is always Venezuela. 

To put this in perspective, from January 6, 2022 (just six months ago): 

I get a kick out of pundits back to arguing whether the US is energy-independent or energy-dependent.

That train has left the station. 

The US is now energy dominant

I was not the first to say that -- others are starting to say that -- but that view is corroborated by the graphic at this link

Holy mackerel. When I went to tag this, I had forgotten I already had the tag: "US_Energy_Dominance." 

The first post with that tag was posted December 10, 2019.

One might want to google US energy dominance, putting it in quotes. You might be surprised at the first hit on google.

But look at this. From Bloomberg, only one month ago, "US to become 'Energy Dominant' on global price jump, Bank of America" -- December 1, 2021. 

From Summer, 2020, edition of International Economy, Today: Dominance Denied. How America's pursuit of energy domination destroyed the oil industry. 

Perhaps better said: how America's pursuit of energy domination destroyed Big Oil allowing Small Oil to takeover.

Semiconductors -- Chips -- July 2, 2022

The usual disclaimers apply.

Link here

I've moved AAPL from "tech" to "value" in my portfolio "sectors."



Chips, semiconductor: link here.

June 28, 2022: transistors on a chip. Apple still #1. 

Note: this is the most current update over at wiki, and with 114 billion transistors on an M1 chip, Apple easily leads the field.

But, Apple will release the new Apple MacBook Air laptop next month (July 15, 2022) with an even more powerful chip, the M2. 

By the way, while we're at it, Apple will also introduce the USB 4 port for this laptop also. 

Happy Bobby Bonilla Day -- July 2, 2022

A lot of folks are "laughing" at this, but in fact, this is how all high-value sports and enteertainmeent contracts should be structured. It would be a win-win for everyone. Contracts for the CEOs of the Fortune 500 companies are often structured this way. 

Sakhalin-1 And Sakhalin-2 — July 2, 2022

Huge repercussions yet to be seen.

Wiki entry: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sakhalin-II. Marathon got out just in time.

Japan: https://twitter.com/SStapczynski/status/1543103635084546048.

Putin’s War. Absolutely huge.

Peter Zeihan, c 2022.

From Reuters the other day:

President Vladimir Putin has raised the stakes in an economic war with the West by signing a decree to seize full control of the Sakhalin-2 gas and oil project in Russia's far east, a move that could force out Shell and Japanese investors.

I would suggest that Putin is doing desperate things. 

Link here

Separate from Putin's decree re Sakhalin-2, XOM is winding down operations at Sakhalin-1; production has been cut by 95%.

Sakhalin-I wiki entry. This is an incredible story.



Warren Buffett Just Bought More OXY — July 2, 2022

OXY: Buffett just bought more. https://twitter.com/OpenSquareCap/status/1543073290754764800.

JPM: finally, someone gets it — https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1542976445525495808.

Recession, GDP:

  • 1Q22 in the books: negative
  • 2Q22 estimate rapidly went from 0% to -1.0 (yesterday) to -2.1% (today)
  • link here.
  • final reading as mid-terms heat up 
  • if it really goes to -2.1%, expect Fed to pivot

Gasoline prices:

  • I don't quite agree with individual who said gasoline prices at the pump have come done almost a dollar here in north Texas in the past few weeks, but it is amazing to see how far, how fast prices have come down -- and this is the week before July 4, 2022, weekeend

XOM: twitter on fire overnight re XOM's 2Q22 earnings

  • XOM signals quarterly profit could hit $18 billion 
  • signals huge gains in 2Q22 in securities filing; some say "stunning." 
    • XOM signals operating profits could double over the 1Q22; would be a record quarterly profit
  • Form 8-K: the "current report" companies must file with the SEC to announce major events that shareholders should know about
  • XOM: could earn more downstream during 2Q22 than they earned upstream in 1Q22
  • 8-K, April 4, 2022:
    • 2Q22 EPS: estimate, $2.32
    • 2Q22 estimate is now +34%, at $3.11
    • midpoint for 2Q 8-K is $3.58, +54% from April 4, 2022 8-K estimate
    • bottom line: since April 4, 2022:
      • XOM shares, +5%
      • earning estimates, +54%
  • history links:
    • EPS, all
    • 1Q22, per XOM:
      • earned $5.5 billion
      • generated $14.8 billion cash flow
      • excluded items were $8.8 billion, an increase of $6 billion vs 1Q21, after adjusting for a $3.4 billion after-tax  charge related to the company's Russia Sakhalin-1 operation
      • announced increase in share repurchase program, $30 billion through 2023
  • whisper numbers: n/a
    • reports Friday, 6:30 a.m., July 29, 2022
    • consensus: 
      • $2.85
      • revenue: $92.05 billion

OPEC:

  • Saudis missed OPEC+ quota by 213,000 bopd in June, 2022
  • OPEC+ is more than a half million bbls behind on pledge to increase production
  • Libya, Nigeria post biggest declines
  • remember: summer months -- domestic use surges to run air conditioners
  • while calling on OPEC for more oil, Biden blocks new offshore drilling
  • report: Biden said he would not directly ask (beg) Saudi Arabia to increase production
  • OPEC+ more than a half billion bbls behind -- Bloomberg;

Texas power:

  • to break records next week as heatwave "returns"
  • returns? it's been 104°F all week this past week; what do they mean, "returns"?

Chord Energy

September 21, 2022: Motley Fool update; bragging rights in the Bakken?

July 11, 2022: BLM lease sale; Whiting high bidder.

Oasis + Whiting: July 1, 2022.

Ticker: CHRD

First corporate presentation

Link here

  • net acres: 972,000
  • production: 171,000 boepd
  • HQ: Houston, TX
  • guidance
    • expects to return 60% of its free cash flow to shareholders in 2H22
    • has a $150 million share repurchase program
    • expects to pay a base dividend of 58.5 cents beginning 3Q22

Compare to Continental Resources, link here:

  • in the Bakken: 825,000 net acres
  • in the Bakken: 183,141 bopd