The question: what did Turkey get in return?
Tuesday, June 28, 2022
XOM Sells Canadian XTO Assets -- June 28, 2022
Whitecap increases dividend by 22%.
- target: XTO Energy Canada
- deal: total cash deal, $1.9 billion and assumption of working capital
- net purchase price: $1.7 billion
- 32,000 boepd
- = $53,000 / boepd flowing (high end)
- Duvernay and Montney formations in Northwest Alberta
- 639,000 net acres
- = $2,660 / acre
- 20 years of tier one drilling locations
- more at the link
- Montney tracked at the sidebar at the right;
- Duvernay tracked at the sidebar at the right.
Rambling Before I Join Sophia In The Pool -- June 28, 2022
This morning, on the radio, while driving out to the lake, the weather forecast for today: "cloudy, cool and 93°.
- perfect television and streaming.
- I love TCM; it seems to keep getting better
- Hulu is awesome
- sports? dead zone right now
- books:
- one book a week
- Zeihan's, c. 2022, a must-read for anyone following the oil sector, geo-politics
- easy reading; lots of cocktail chatter
- I bet it's mandatory reading at US Naval academy and US Navy senior officer schools
- magazines
- just subscribed to Science, $79 / year
- will re-subscribe to The New Yorker as a trial for 26 weeks; $26
- curious to see how they report the current SCOTUS decisions; should be fun
- music
- YouTube keeps getting better and better
- Lana Del Rey catalogue: if just one "catalogue" on a desert island, this would be it
- politics, yes politics
- SCOTUS: back to strict interpretation of the constitution
- NYT: Chief Justice Roberts has lost his court
- up and coming Amy could be next chief justice if Roberts not careful; or retires;
- speaking of which: wow, these justices are young; they're not going anywhere for a long time; exception: Breyer has announced retirement
- investing
- be fearful when others are greedy
- be greedy when others are fearful
- watch Buffett; he keeps accumulating more OXY
- and I don't think OXY is even among the best for young investors
End-Of-Day Report -- June 28, 2022
First things first, API's Tuesday report -- large crude oil draw --
Spare capacity: lots of folks are talking about (lack of) spare capacity in the Mideast. I started talking about this at least as far back as 2013, and I remember oil drum talking about it:- a draw of almost 4 million bbls this past week
- analysts forecast a draw of 110,000 bbls
- remember: this draw comes at same time as huge SPR release
- if confirmed by EIA tomorrow, "Katie, bar the door."
- of course, the week before, a build of 5.6 million bbls suggesting a lot of issues with data;
- gasoline
- previous week: a build of 1.2 million bbls
- most recent week: a build of 2.9 million bbls
- and price of gasoline is still at $5
- crack spread at refineries said to be $50 to $60 / bbl
- most interesting data point to watch for tomorrow, EIA's report:
- refining operating capacity; and,
- jet fuel supplied
The anti-ARKK? Link here. At the link, a short audio, quite remarkable:
Winter in Australia, link here:
Buffett and OXY: I've completely lost the bubble on Buffett and OXY. I'll sort it out later. Link here:
Sempra over at SeekingAlpha, link here.
Grids:
- Texas grid easily held today.
- both ISO-NE and ISO-NY expensive; ISO-NY particularly on Long Island
The madam: 20 years in prison
- on suicide watch
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Back to the Bakken
GIS map server: still not "up."
WTI: up 2% today; up $2.19; trading at $111.80.
Active rigs: 45.
One new permit, #39056:
- Operator: Lime Rock Resources
- Fields: North Fork (McKenzie)
- Comments:
- Lime Rocks Resources has a permit for another Yellowstone well, lot 3, section 1-149-97;
- to be sited 452 FNL and 2371 FWL
Three permits renewed / reinstated:
- Whiting: a Roggenbuck permit, a Larson permit, and, a Kessel permit, Mountrail, Williams, and Stark counties, respectively
Odds And Ends, The Apple Page -- June 28, 2022
Voters: also Hispanics in Texas are flipping for GOP -- not noted in this headline --
- every time I see a headline about the need for more oil, I don't read the story;
- either the writer or the subject just doesn’t get it
- unless European / Asian refiners are operating well below capacity, which I doubt
- exhibit A:
EIA:
- says it will post weekly petroleum report tomorrow but will still delay other data;
- last week’s report plus this week's report;
- by the time the report(s) come out, the G-7 meeting will be over;
- disaster averted;
BNPL: did anyone ever think "BNPL" folks were doing this "for free"? LOL. Link here:
**********************
The Apple Page
Holy mackerel. Days of no Apple news and now three stories to report.
Qualcomm: to remain supplier for 2023 iPhones.
Cool: dual monitor stand. Why didn't I think of this?
TSM: 3nm technology for Apple's upcoming "M2 Pro'and "M3" chips. For background and why this story is so important, see this post.
Back To The Bakken -- June 28, 2022
Interesting headline: again, at the linked story, no denominator, but in round numbers, we know what it is.
- folks quibble about supply / demand / balanced / not balanced but when global demand is around 100 million bopd and the excess is running around 1 million bbls / day -- that's a one-percent margin;
- I suppose day-after-day at one percent excess adds up to a big number over time, but a one-percent margin seems a bit troublesome
Just beginning: link here.
Irony:
- Biden begging the Saudis for more production; they don't have it.
- Macron begging Biden for more production; Biden not interested.
Re-posting:
Spare capacity: doesn't exist
- this story all over twitter yesterday;
- now it's a Reuters story
- begs the question: what is Biden's purpose going to Mideast
- Russia making huge inroads -- especially in Iraq
- but back to the linked story -- Macron tells Biden
- it's a bizarre "set-up"
- it's like a little kid running up to a bigger kid to tell him something he just heard
- some suggest it was "posed" -- disagree;
- but certainly these heads of state must have already known about OPEC spare capacity
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Back to the Bakken
Far Side: link here.
Active rigs: 44.
Tuesday, June 28, 2022: 39 for the month, 177 for the quarter, 336 for the year
- 38659, conf, CLR, LCU Reckitt Federal 9-22H1X,
RBN Energy: replumbing US refined products pipeline networks.
Refinery closures. Shifting demand for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Yawning price differentials for refined products in neighboring regions. These and other factors have spurred an ongoing reworking of the extensive U.S. products pipeline network, which transports the fuels needed to power cars, SUVs, trucks, trains and airplanes — not to mention pumps in the oil patch, tractors and lawnmowers.
New products pipelines are being built and existing pipelines are being repurposed, expanded or made bidirectional, typically to take advantage of opportunities that midstreamers, refiners and marketers see opening up. In today’s RBN blog, we begin a review of major pipelines that batch gasoline, diesel and jet fuel and look at the subtle and not-so-subtle changes being made to the U.S. refined products distribution network.
Clearing Out the In-Box -- June 28, 2022
Updates
Later, 12:46 p.m. CT: link here. Nice thesis but the graph does not support the thesis --
Original Post
Pilot shortage:- during Covid, commercial passenger air traffic tumbled; pilots furloughed
- meanwhile, commercial cargo air traffic surged; hunch: pilots scarfed up by FedEx, Amazon, UPS
- link here for Amazon Air update
Investment banks:
EU: now in full scale gas crisis to get through winter
- Jefferies one of the first to report
- just reported: not good news
- revenue dropped 30% y/y
- earnings: 45 cents vs 51 cents forecast
- shares drop 4% after-hours
- link here;
EVs: speaking of a bad day, how did EVs do yesterday
- TSLA: ended flat but overall a bad day; jumped to $750 at open; closed at $735
- RIVN: down 4% for the day; jumped to $29.50 at open; closed at $28.44
- GOEV: down 4.% for the day; jumped to $2.25 at open; closed at $2.13
- RIDE: down 4.8% for the day; $1.90 at the open; closed at $1.79
- NKLA: down 4% for the day; $5.60 at the open; closed at $5.39
- ELMS: not trading; filed for bankruptcy
- mandates 80% storage levels by November for all member states
- expect curtailment for power generation to protect households
- link here;
Spare capacity: doesn't exist
- this story all over twitter yesterday;
- now it's a Reuters story
- begs the question: what is Biden's purpose going to Mideast
- Russia making huge inroads -- especially in Iraq
- but back to the linked story -- Macron tells Biden
- it's a bizarre "set-up"
- it's like a little kid running up to a bigger kid to tell him something he just heard
- some suggest it was "posed" -- disagree;
- but certainly these heads of state must have already known about OPEC spare capacity
Tired of winning:
- I don't read PowerLine much any more but a reader sent this link;
- it's a must-read
- trend:
- strict reading of constitutional law;
- not making up "new" law
- most amazing: these are 6 -3 rulings
- really scary: these are 6 - 3 rulings
- rulings mentioned in the linked story should be unanimous
Corporations paying for reproductive services following SCOTUS decision, from a reader:
- cynical: three-day travel / procedure is much, much cheaper for the company than months of maternity leave
- privacy: companies can't confirm purpose of travel; allows for abuse; I'm not concerned
- this will be taxable income; again, won't amount to much
- a bigger story: huge amount of donor money to Planned Parenthood to get into Travel Business
Johnny Depp:
- $301 million to play Captain Jack again for Disney?