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Wednesday, May 4, 2022

Crude Oil Super-Cycle Just Beginning; Buffett Buys More OXY -- May 4. 2022

Clearly in a "crude oil super-cycle." 

WTI: tonight, 10:40 p.m. CT, May 4, 2022 -- $108.20. 

Warren Buffett telegraphed this during the Annual Meeting last weekend. 

His "quote" posted on the blog.

Perfect storm:

  • energy transition is dead ("everybody" now realizes that)
  • Putin's War: a lot of Russian oil is taken off the market 
    • one-two-three punch: previously posted
  • we have an administration in Washington (DC) that doesn't understand what's going on and will (purposely or inadvertently) do everything to kill the US oil industry
    • this administration in place for three more years; three more years to exacerbate situation 
    • windfall profits tax will exacerbate price of gasoline at the pump;
  • US E&P under-capitalization (multiple reasons)
    • financial institutions coordinated moving investments to non-fossil fuel companies
    • capital being moved from fossil fuel to renewable energy, tech, healthcare
    • fossil fuel out of favor with managed funds

Tonight: link here.


Remember: during 1Q22, Warren Buffett / BRK bought enough CVX to make it the third or fourth largest equity holding in the BRK portfolio. Now, more OXY. 

Link here.

MPC Posts Impressive Jump In Profit -- Tom Kool -- May 4, 2022

Link here.

Tom Kool: head of operations, oilprice.com. Majored in international business at Amsterdam's Higher School of Economics.

U.S. refiner Marathon Petroleum Corp was trading up over 4.3% close to close Tuesday after posting Q1 earnings showing an impressive jump in profit on the back of soaring oil prices and post-pandemic economic recovery.

Marathon reported net profit of $845 million ($1.49 per share) for Q1, up from a loss of $242 million for the same quarter a year ago. The refiner also reported revenue gaining 68% on the quarter for #38.8 billion, up from $22.88 billion a year ago.

High margins have been launching U.S. refiners into a “golden age”, and Marathon is no exception, with a refining unit profit margin increase of over $5 per barrel year-over-year and a capacity utilization rate of over 90%.

Up another four percent today.

Pays 2.5%.

Last five days:

I feel sorry for all those investors who invest in funds whose managers won't invest in oil and gas companies. There's a lot of small mom-and-pop retail investors who are going to have a better (investing) year than some managed funds.

Oasis Provides Update Regarding Merger With Whiting; Expects To Close 3Q22 -- May 4, 2022

Closing prices:

  • OAS: $142
  • WLL: $78
  • WLL / OAS = 0.549

Back of envelope:

  • 1000 shrs of WLL: $78,000
    • at merger / closing: 577 shares of Oasis
    • 577 * $142 = $81,934
    • $6.25 x 1,000 = $6,250
    • $88,184
  • 1000 shrs of OAS: $142,000
    • at merger / closing: $15 x 1,000 = $15,000
    • = $157,000

I often make simple arithmetic mistakes, often misunderstand things.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

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Oasis: 1Q22 Earning

OAS: link here.

  • Oasis and Whiting Petroleum Corporation ("Whiting") continue to make progress and expect the merger (the "merger") to close in 3Q22. Oasis and Whiting each filed a premerger notification and report form under the HSR Act, and the waiting periods with respect thereto have expired. Oasis filed a registration statement on Form S-4 (the "Registration Statement") on April 28, 2022.
  • DENVER & HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Mar. 7, 2022-- Whiting Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: WLL) (“Whiting”) and Oasis Petroleum Inc. (NASDAQ: OAS) ("Oasis") today announced they have entered into an agreement to combine in a merger of equals transaction. The combined company will have a premier Williston Basin position with top tier assets across approximately 972K net acres, combined production of 167.8 thousand boepd, significant scale and enhanced free cash flow generation to return capital to shareholders.

    This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220307005443/en/

    Under the terms of the agreement, Whiting shareholders will receive 0.5774 shares of Oasis common stock and $6.25 in cash for each share of Whiting common stock owned

    In connection with the closing of the transaction, Oasis shareholders will receive a special dividend of $15.00 per share

    The combined company will have an enterprise value of ~$6.0B based on the exchange ratio and the closing share prices for Whiting and Oasis as of March 4, 2022. Upon completion of the transaction, Whiting shareholders will own approximately 53% and Oasis shareholders will own approximately 47% of the combined company on a fully diluted basis.

    Upon closing, Whiting’s President and CEO, Lynn Peterson, will serve as Executive Chair of the Board of Directors of the combined company. Oasis’ CEO, Danny Brown, will serve as President and Chief Executive Officer and as a member of the Board. The combined company will be headquartered in Houston upon closing but will retain the Denver office for the foreseeable future. The combined company will operate under a new name and is expected to trade on the NASDAQ under a new ticker to be announced prior to closing.

California Gasoline Prices To Go Higher -- May 4, 2022

Link here. And here.

California approves Marathon's and Phillips 66's refinery to renewable repurposing.

Link here.

US natural gas prices surge above $8 / MMBtu in "irrational" market. LOL. Nothing irrational aboiut this market when California approves Marathon's and Phillips 66's refinery to renewable repurposing.

Random Look At Permian E&P Dividends -- May 4, 2022

Link here.

The small print includes: BP, Shell, TTE, APA, CLR, COP, CTRA, EOG, FANG, HES, MRO, OVV, OXY, DVN. 

Lumentum Holdings -- May 4, 2022

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Lumentum, an Apple supplier, sees strong demand





Light At The End Of The Tunnel; Things Finally Turning? Gasoline Demand -- May 4, 2022

Link here.

Along with several other items today, this is the most encouraging sign I've seen in several weeks and one that suggests that $108-WTI is justified. 

But why? I really don't understand $108-WTI when the problem is not lack of oil but so many other things. I truly don't understand it.

****************************************
The Apple Page

Apple gifts Mac Studio to aspiring videographer

Lumentum, an Apple supplier, sees strong demand

*********************************
The Book Page

A nice human interest story.

Russia's Oil Sector Is Already Beginning To Implode -- May 4, 2022

Russia, post Putin's War

Updates

May 31, 2022:

Re-posting.

Wow, wow, wow -- this happened fast. This is a central theme on the blog regarding Putin's War -- but I thought it would take a bit longer for mainstream media to start reporting it, and here it is -- on May 4, 2022 -- huge, link to Irina Slav:

  • Russia’s oil output is plummeting, and the decline is expected to worsen in May. 
  • OPEC recently warned that markets could see the loss of more than 7 million barrels per day of Russian oil and other liquids exports. 
  • With many global producers constrained in their capacity to boost production fast, oil prices are likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future.

Four New Permits; One DUC Reported As Completed -- May 4, 2022

Wow, wow, wow -- this happened fast. This is a central theme on the blog regarding Putin's War -- but I thought it would take a bit longer for mainstream media to start reporting it, and here it is -- on May 4, 2022 -- huge, link to Irina Slav:

  • Russia’s oil output is plummeting, and the decline is expected to worsen in May. 
  • OPEC recently warned that markets could see the loss of more than 7 million barrels per day of Russian oil and other liquids exports. 
  • With many global producers constrained in their capacity to boost production fast, oil prices are likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future.

Two words: Buffett, Chevron. 

Diesel: I've said many times, if Charles Kennedy writes about it, it's worth reading. Diesel prices hit a new record on Wednesday. Link to Charles Kennedy. It's much more complicated than this but as far as I'm concerned, the "diesel price" issue in this country is due to "killing the Keystone XL." That's a metonym, of course, and includes ESG. But every day, the decision to shut down the Keystone XL looks more and more -- the worse energy decision made by any US president in a long, long time. 

WTI:

  • at time of original post, $107.90
  • later in the evening, $108.10

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:


$107.90
5/4/202205/04/202105/04/202005/04/201905/04/2018
Active Rigs3917276462

Four new permits, #38926 - #38929, inclusive:

  • Operator: Grayson Mill
  • Field: Alexander (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Grayson Mill has permits for four Timber Creek wells in NENW 13-151-101; 
      • to be sited 373 FNL and between 2331 FWL and 2421 FWL

One producing well completed:

  • 38612, 2,046, Grayson Mill, Jay 24-13F 6H, Banks, no production data,

Here We Go -- May The Fourth Be With You -- May 4, 2022

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Note
: I don't plan to update this page after today.

Reporting after hours:

  • APA: link here. Net income, $1.9 billion, or $5.43 / share; adjusted, $668 million or $1.92 / share. Operating net cash was $891 million; $675 million in free cash flow. Guidance: $2.9 billion of free cash flow in full year 2022.
  • CPE:
  • CDEV:
  • CHK: exceeds expectations.
  • CIVI:
  • CLR: link here. $1.65 / share. Adjusted, $2.65. Earnings/net income: 597.80 million. Link here. $1.15 billion free cash flow. Quarterly dividend increased to 28 cents per share. Total debt reduction, $264 million. SeekingAlpha "clean quarter."
  • LPI:
  • MDU: link here. EPS of 16 cents misses by two cents. Revenue of $1.42 billion beats by $350 million.
  • MRO: link here. $1.78 / share; adjusted $1.02 / share. Operating cash flow: $1.067 billion, or $1.280 billion before charges. Net income: $1.304 billion.
  • OAS: link here.
    • Oasis and Whiting Petroleum Corporation ("Whiting") continue to make progress and expect the merger (the "merger") to close in 3Q22. Oasis and Whiting each filed a premerger notification and report form under the HSR Act, and the waiting periods with respect thereto have expired. Oasis filed a registration statement on Form S-4 (the "Registration Statement") on April 28, 2022.
  • PDCE: link here. Increased base dividend to $1.00 annualized level. See link for financial results.
  • PXD: link here. Net income, $2.0 billion, or $7.85 per share; adjusted, $7.74 / share. Cash flow, $2.6 billion. Look at this: base + variable dividend of $7.38 / share. Repurchased $250 million of shares. Returning 88% of first quarter free cash flow to shareholders.
  • SBOW
  • TALO
  • WLL: link here. Revenue, $527 million; net loss of $37 million or 95 cents / share; adjusted net income $185 million or $4.61 / share. Adjust free cash flow was $150 million. Debt at end of quarter, $50 million.

Dividends

COP: I forgot about these additional variable dividends.

DFS: raised its quarterly dividend by a dime. 

Busy, Busy Afternoon -- May 4, 2022

Market: with a dozen companies yet to report after hours, I'm going to be up all night sorting everything out.

Diesel: NY Harbor -- diesel is priced at $238 / bbl ($5.67 / gallon). Aren't refiners buying oil for about $100 / bbl? Link here.

Joe: "I did that." In fact, Jay Powell did that ... but ... largest rate jump since 2000 -- did the rate just double? -- and yet the Fed rate is still <1%. Tell me again why all the angst about the rate rise. By the way, the comments must have been more important than the rate rise based on market action after the meeting concluded. Link here.

I quit watching two months ago: link here. This is the longest stretch that I've quit watching CNBC

Wrong, but the sentiment is correct: link here.

I Thought My Nap Was Over But It Appears I'm Still Dreamiing -- May 4, 2022

The Fed

  • it appears traders finally realized that a half-percent rate rise still keeps the full rate at <1%

Not on my bingo card today:

I guess the exact language was more along this line: "Not actively considerind a 75-point rate hike.




Bingo
: By the way, some weeks ago, I replaced the "free space" at the center of the card with a "Buy More Devon Today." 

When Will They Learn -- LNG -- May 4, 2022

I don't even know what to say. Link here.

Houston-based Cheniere Energy Inc reported an unexpected Q1 loss, but bumped its full-year profit forecast by 17% in its earnings release Wednesday, on the back of soaring LNG demand and natural gas prices.

The largest LNG exporter in the United States, Cheniere reported earnings up to $8.7 billion before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. That represents a $1.2-billion increase over analyst estimates from Bloomberg.

Despite the stellar guidance, Cheniere’s reported a net loss of $865 million ($3.41 per share) for the quarter, compared with a profit of $393 million ($1.54 per share) in the same period a year ago.


Analysts had been expecting the reverse–earnings of $3.51/share.

According to Cheniere, the company lost significantly on commodity derivative instruments indexed to international LNG prices and LNG margins were not enough to offset the loss.

“While operationally we seek to eliminate commodity risk by utilising derivatives to mitigate price volatility for commodities procured or sold over a period of time, as a result of the significant appreciation in forward international LNG commodity curves during the quarter, we incurred approximately $3.1bn of non-cash unfavorable changes in fair value attributed to positions indexed to such prices,” Cheniere said.

You have to be pretty special to pull this off.

April Jobs Data — With Seven Million New Hires, Still Twelve Million Job Openings -- May 4, 2022

Stagflation: three components:

  • high inflation;
  • low growth;
  • high unemployment

The jobs numbers today: April, 2022, private payrolls --

  • rose, but rose less-than-expected
  • a rose by any other name is still a rose

Despite these discrepancies, the underlying trend amid the plethora of recent labor market data has been clear: the U.S. labor market remains extremely tight, with demand for workers far outstripping supply. In March, job openings raced to a record high of more than 11.5 million, while new hires were little changed at 6.7 million. And these vacancies have persisted even after months of payroll growth coming in well above pre-pandemic trends. 

Right now, we don't have stagflation unless one wants to ignore jobs data. 

So:

  • 12 million job openings
  • new hires: 7 million

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April Automobiles

CAFE.

Ford: link here.

  • if SUVs are on pick-up truck chassis, Ford is a truck company, not a car company
  • April, 2022, sales
    • truck: 97K
    • SUV: 90K
    • car: 10K
  • EVs
    • Mustang Mach E: 2K
    • F-150 PowerBoost: 3.4K
    • Escape: 3.7K

GM vs Toyota. Toyota outsells GM.

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- Surprise Crude Oil Build But Distillate Fuel Now 22% Below Five-Year Average; WTI Holds, Maybe Even Up A Bit -- May 4, 2022

Link here.

  • US crude oil in storage surprises everyone with an increased build of 1.3 million bbls, and now stands at 415.7 bbl, 15% below the five-year average -- wow!
    • looks like more room for another SPR release
  • US imported 6.3 million bopd, up by 397,000 bopd; the average of 6.0 million bopd is 3.3% greater than the same period last year (yawn)
  • US refiners are operating at --- they drop below 90% -- 88.4% of their operable capacity; what does that do to distillates?
  • distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.3 million bbls; and are now 22% below their five-year average:
    • refiners need that heavy oil from Canada to produce distillate fuel
    • too bad the Keystone XL was killed. 
  • jet fuel supplied was up 28.2% compared with same four-week period last year
    gasoline demand will be posted later.

Maybe Biden's auditors can start here, link here:
 

Conspiracy theory:

  • API, non-government: huge drawdown yesterday; should drive prices higher all things being equal;
  • EIA, from Biden's government: a surprise build; all things being equal, should drive gasoline prices at the pump lower, which is what the Biden administration would like;
  • WTI price doesn't drop despite that EIA surprise build
  • here's the conspiracy theories: 
    • are traders thinking the same thing I'm thinking?
    • do you trust the API (non-government) numbers or do you trust the EIA (the Biden) numbers?
  • I've always gone with the EIA, but ...

WTI:

  • up about 4% today;
  • trading up $4.04 / bbl -- think about that -- up $4.04 / bbl
  • trading at $106.50

Which brings me to another topic: DUCs.

With WTI at $105 not one single drilled well should come off the confidential list as a DUC -- drilled but uncompleted.

This is like Tesla having all those $100,000/car orders and not being able to meet demand.

Oil companies must be seething. Drilling a well to completion, seeing $106.50 on the WTI ticker and unable to get the well fracked.

This is where analysts / experts and I part company.

It's  not the rig count that matters; it's the ability to get drilled wells completed. 

As long as I see one well in the Bakken coming off the confidential list as a DUC, it tells me we have "enough" rigs (don't take that out of context) but not enough frack spreads to complete the wells. 

Today, of the five wells coming off the confidential list (yesterday and today), only two reported production. The other three, by definition, are DUCs, although it's possible they aren't even drilled yet, I suppose, and then in that case, the additional rigs would be nice. So, to some / great extent I might be wrong but as long as I see DUCs, I see more need for frack spreads than more rigs.

Having said that, a number of great operators that should be drilling in the Bakken now are not drilling. 

The faux environmentalists would be happy: "Leave it in the ground."

In round numbers, I think less than a thousand wells will be drilled in the Bakken this calendar year, and there are about 500 Bakken DUCs.

Equinor Earnings -- Uff-Da -- May 4, 2022

Uff-da! Equinor pretty much hit a home run

  • production drops 3% y/y --
  • company must have been listening to faux environmentalists chanting "leave it in the ground."
  • operating income surges from $5.2 billion to $18.4 billion
  • net income surges from less than $2 billion to almost $5 billion

Barron's: Equinor posts record profit as natural gas prices soar in Europe. Link here.

The $18 billion result compared with a revised $4.1 billion a year earlier and beat the $17.1 billion predicted in a company-compiled poll of 25 analysts.

$18 billion this quarter vs $4 billion a year ago! Whoo-hoo!

Moderna Earnings -- Crushed Forecasts -- Barron's -- May 4, 2022

Moderna: easily beat profit and revenue forecasts. For investors, the past year seemed to be an open-book test. Crushed ...

Moderna reported a profit of $8.58 a share, easily topping analyst estimates for a profit of $5.37, on revenue of $6 billion, trouncing forecasts for $4.204 billion.

Historical earnings, link here: $8.58 / share. Also here.

As Predicted, ISO NE Just Went Yellow -- 6th Decile -- May 4, 2022

Link here. The reason:

  • hydro just became the "marginal fuel";
  • wind not dispatchable, and,
  • natural gas pipelines killed, and,
  • heating oil from Russia banned
  • heavy demand: 13,098 MW
  • spiked to $120 / MWh
  • hydro at 15%, double the 8% that seems reasonable
  • wind "working" earlier this morning is now falling

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Old Age, Poor Eyesight, Fat Fingers, And Investing

I may have to turn over my investing activities to my younger daughter. I am making more and more mistakes doing things on line than I used to. I am incredibly careful when investing on line and/or ordering from Amazon due to mis-typing things.

I generally don't check my trade confirmations, but for some reason I did that yesterday. I'm glad I did. I accidentally bought twice the number of shares of some company than I had planned. 

Turned out to work in my favor, so I'm not complaining, just noting.

Energy, Roe, Moderna -- Potpourri -- A Little Something For Everyone -- May 4, 2022

Uff-da! Equinor pretty much hit a home run

  • production drops 3% y/y --
  • company must have been listening to faux environmentalists chanting "leave it in the ground."
  • operating income surges from $5.2 billion to $18.4 billion
  • net income surges from less than $2 billion to almost $5 billion

Moderna: easily beat profit and revenue forecasts. For investors, the past year seemed to be an open-book test.

Roe vs Wade: what went wrong? LA Times: the original decision was built on a shaky foundation. In fact, SCOTUS took a re-look some years later and "amended" it. That's how bad the original decision was. However, it just may be the biggest political money generator ever -- and it keeps on giving.

How disruptive was the shale revolution? Maybe some insight here, but we've been saying that for over ten years now.

East Coast diesel: out of control, link here.

Today, link here:

MPC: posts impressive jump in profits. History here.

WMB: greenlights Transco expansion to more more gas from Texas to Louisiana. Link here.

Enerplus To Report A Huge Well Today; Just Saying -- May 4, 2022

WTI:

  • up 4.05%
  • up $4.15
  • trading at $106.60
  • the SPR release came just in time

Biden audits can audit all they want between wellhead to gasoline pump, but no amount of auditing will explain / slow price of crude oil. 

More and more, killing the Keystone looks worse and worse.

ISO NE: still green but trending toward yellow, $100 / MWh

  • hydro: 12%
  • renewables: 9%

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$104.80
5/4/202205/04/202105/04/202005/04/201905/04/2018
Active Rigs3817276462

Wednesday, May 4, 2022: 13 for the month, 78 for the quarter, 238 for one year

  • 38363, conf, CLR, Springfield FIU 7-8H, Brooklyn, no production data,
  • 38243, conf, Ovintiv, Krameer 150-97-18-19-2H, Siverston, no production data,
  • 37728, conf, Enerplus, Seeal 151-94-33D-28H, Antelope-Sanish, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 110K 3/22;
Tuesday, May 3, 2022: 10 for the month, 75 for the quarter, 235 for one year
  • 37668, conf, Whiting, Lacey 14-3-2XH, Sanish, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 106K 3/22;
  • 30260, conf, Hess, EN-Madisyn-LE-154-94-0705H-2, Alkali Creek, no production data,

RBN Energy: chaotic markets re-emphasize the need for a balanced energy policy. And how to solve world hunger.

The energy market has been in chaos for some time. Even before Russia’s horrific attack on Ukraine, the multinational push to decarbonize the global economy was slow-motion-crashing into reality. Of course, global supply shortages only got worse following the invasion and the widespread response to it. The disruptions highlight the critical need for a balanced energy policy, both in the U.S. and abroad. This became evident in Europe last year, when a heavy, early reliance on renewable energy, largely wind, left much of the continent short on fuel and scrambling for natural gas when the wind didn’t blow enough. The overall supply-demand balance caused prices to rise steadily as the global economy climbed out of its COVID-induced recession. Then the situation became more dire as embargoes on Russian crude oil and gas were planned and implemented. In the U.S., the Biden administration, eager to both “green” the economy and keep gasoline prices in check, has been giving mixed signals to E&Ps and their investors, telling them to both ramp up investments in production and expect to play a smaller and smaller role going forward. It’s a confusing world. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the current energy environment, the policy roller-coaster, challenges to the increased usage of renewables that remain unaddressed, and how the politics of decarbonization are making the ongoing energy transition a very difficult row to hoe.

The hostility toward crude oil and natural gas production and the development of supporting infrastructure seems to permeate much of our society. In popular entertainment, “He’s into fracking” is a major condemnation — more or less a punchline. Many institutional investors have invoked corporate policies against investing in oil and gas. As a candidate, President Biden said that “oil companies will be phased out.” He almost immediately backtracked to indicate that he was simply talking about tax benefits, etc. However, on his first day in office he famously put the kibosh on Keystone XL. His administration then announced a 30-year plan to electrify America and laid out plans to build out renewable energy generation resources to dominate the energy economy. The administration also suspended new drilling leases on federal lands. And government agencies, including the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) — with assists from a few federal appellate court rulings — made it increasingly difficult to build needed energy infrastructure.