Pages

Friday, April 22, 2022

Another Cryptocurrency Data Center In North Dakota? ISO NE -- Friday Night -- April 22, 2022

North Dakota -- Cryptocurrency -- Shark Tank's Kevin O'Leary

Kevin O’Leary of Shark Tank Fame is interested in placing a $3 billion bitcoin mining operation in North Dakota, according to a media release from the North Dakota Department of Commerce.

“North Dakota has exactly what we need to build sustainable data centers,” said O’Leary, a well-known entrepreneur and a judge on TV’s Shark Tank. “In fact, I know that North Dakota is a great place to do business from my investment in PRx Performance in Fargo, which is one of the most successful companies featured on Shark Tank.”

O’Leary was joined in the visit by other representatives of the cyrptocurrency company Bitzero, including the company’s CEO, Akbar Shamji. They met with Gov. Doug Burgum, U.S. Sen. John Hoeven, Commerce representatives, Chief Information Officer Shawn Riley and other state officials.

The company anticipates having an established location set up beginning within the next three to four months.

ISO NE: Link here.

  • Friday night, 7:20 p.m. ET
  • demand: low; 12,502 MW
  • pricing: 6th decile, $110
  • marginal fuel: hydro, wind
  • mix:
    • natural gas: 49%
    • nuclear: 19%
    • hydro: 19%
    • renewables: 13%

****************************
How Mother Cows Recognize Their Calves

It's calving season here in north Texas. Actually, I think it was calving season several weeks ago, but now that the weather has improved, ranchers are letting their cattle and their calves out on the range.

Almost daily Sophia and I pass a few fields where the cattle are out and about.

The other day I pointed out to Sophia that even though the calves wander away from their moms to play with each other, at the end of the day the mothers locate their calves when they head back to the barn.

I told Sophia that I really did not know how mother cows recognize their own calves ... it was a pretty open-ended statement, not really meant to go anywhere. 

Immediately Sophia told me how mother cows recognize their own calves. The conversation, and none of this is made up.

Sophia: "You know when cattle get sold, they have a tag in their ear."

Me: "Yes.

"Well, they put that tag on when they are born. That way the mother cow knows which calf is hers."

"Oh?"

"Yes, when they go back to the barn, the mother cows just look for the calf with the correct number on the calf's tag and they know which calf is hers."

"Okay. That explains it. I did not know."

Sophia will be eight years old this summer. I think she is going to be a veterinarian specializing in cognitive abilities of large domesticated animals.

Biden's Climate-Friendly Military -- Anas Alhajji -- April 22, 2022

I quit following Anas Alhajji over on twitter; most of his tweets were in Arabic. It's unfortunate because he usually had good information. Someone re-tweeted this tweet from Anas:

Slight Jump In Production In A Neighboring XTo Well To Two Completed DUCs -- April 22, 2022

It looks like this well might have had a slight jump in production (halo effect) when the two DUCs below were completed. My hunch: the increased production won't last long. The well:

  • 29576, 1,184, XTO, Satter 31X-1H, Siverston, t12/15; cum 187K 2/22; recent productiona;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-202228404934724866862385340
BAKKEN1-20229114112971318166416430
BAKKEN12-202120287931133473545554000
BAKKEN11-202119275124843449406940120
BAKKEN10-202113174615012683264125840
BAKKEN9-20210020000
BAKKEN8-2021001660000
BAKKEN7-20211783088682926591948679
BAKKEN6-202130106411891254263226070

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 35047, 2,511, XTO, Johnson Trust 21X-6EXH-N, Siverston, cum 157K in about 3.5 months;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20221915093154381031756662564650
BAKKEN1-202231328333330721242101786101292174
BAKKEN12-2021314853848389278631215341212070
BAKKEN11-2021295991859089361791340081337230
BAKKEN10-202100140000
BAKKEN9-20212182041449660966
  • 35044, 2,629, XTO, Johnson GTrust 21X-6AXD, Siverston, cum 194K in about four months;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2022201844318599997252334521280
BAKKEN1-20222221381219891081566969654111340
BAKKEN12-20213134707346211608984412813402747
BAKKEN11-2021305859858587250621436811384284936
BAKKEN10-202126603876036429909130702130189244
BAKKEN9-20213102703256255402554

Blizzard Warning For The Weekend; XTO Reports Two Huge DUCs; CLR And Lime Rock Report Eight New Permits; Neset Consulting Has a Permit For A Wildcat In McKenzie County; Seven Permits Renewed By Enerplus -- April 22, 2022

Weather: Williston is the bull's eye for the next spring winter storm.  Blizzard warning:

  • 4:00 a.m. CT, Saturday, to 7:00 p.m. Sunday
  • this is Winter Storm Greta 2.0 

Morgan Stanley: calling for $130 oil 2Q22.

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

Weather: Williston is the bull's eye for the next spring winter storm.  Blizzard warning:

  • 4:00 a.m. CT, Saturday, to 7:00 p.m. Sunday
  • this is Winter Storm Greta 2.0 

NOG: to report 1Q22 earnings after market closes, Thursday, May 5, 2022.

Active rigs:

$102.10
4/22/202204/22/202104/22/202004/22/201904/22/2018
Active Rigs3716296259

Nine new permits, #38890 - #38898, inclusive:

  • Operators: CLR (5); Lime Rock Resources (3), Neset Consulting Service
  • Fields: Jim Creek, (Dunn County); Stanley (Mountrail County); and, wildcat, McKenzie County
  • Comments:
    • CLR has permits for five Bonney wells, 
      • to be sited in SWSW and SESE section 3-145-96; 
      • three to be sited between 489 FSL and between 353 FEL and 443 FEL; 
      • two be sited between 313 FSL and 358 FSL and 1140 FWL
    • Lime Rock Resources has permits for three Hanson B wells to be sited in NENE 18-155-97;
      • to be sited between 717 FNL and between 205 FEL and 325 FEL;
    • Neset Consulting has a permit for a wildcat, Halite 1, to be sited in SESE 30-152-100, McKenzie County; 
      • to be sited 1110 FSL and 331 FEL;

Seven oil and gas permits renewed:

  • Enerplus: a Quartet, an Opera, a Rhythm, a Hatch, a Paprika, a Chimayo, amd a Diablo, all in Dunn County;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 35047, 2,511, XTO, Johnson Trust 21X-6EXH-N, Siverston, cum 157K in about 3.5 months;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20221915093154381031756662564650
BAKKEN1-202231328333330721242101786101292174
BAKKEN12-2021314853848389278631215341212070
BAKKEN11-2021295991859089361791340081337230
BAKKEN10-202100140000
BAKKEN9-20212182041449660966
  • 35044, 2,629, XTO, Johnson GTrust 21X-6AXD, Siverston, cum 194K in about four months;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2022201844318599997252334521280
BAKKEN1-20222221381219891081566969654111340
BAKKEN12-20213134707346211608984412813402747
BAKKEN11-2021305859858587250621436811384284936
BAKKEN10-202126603876036429909130702130189244
BAKKEN9-20213102703256255402554

Just To Clarify: This Appeared In The WSJ, Not The Onion Or Babylon Bee -- April 22, 2022

Link to The Wall Street Journal:

WASHINGTON—The nation’s biggest oil industry trade group has drafted a proposal urging Congress to adopt a carbon tax, which would put a surcharge on gasoline and other fossil fuels to discourage greenhouse-gas emissions.

The draft proposal was approved by the American Petroleum Institute’s climate committee last month.  
A carbon tax would raise gasoline prices and other energy costs for consumers
Some API members want to delay action on the proposal amid near-record prices at the pump, contending it could alienate not only voters but Republican lawmakers friendly to the oil industry ahead of midterm elections.

The API proposal calls for assessing gasoline wholesalers, power plants and others a tax starting at $35 to $50 a ton for carbon dioxide generated by the fossil fuel they sell or use, with annual adjustments for inflation and other factors.

Some Democrats who once supported a carbon tax now oppose it, on grounds that the costs are passed on to consumers, including many who can’t afford it. The API proposal suggests rebating some of the revenue collected by the carbon tax to households and to invest the rest of the money in new technology.

The draft proposal says a carbon tax is “the most impactful and transparent way to achieve meaningful progress on the dual goals of reducing greenhouse gas (“GHG”) emissions while simultaneously ensuring continued economic growth.”

Data point:

  • one gallon of gasoline, non-ethanol, produces about 19 pounds of CO2 -- let's call it 20 pounds.
  • currently a gallon of gasoline runs about $4.00 / gallon
  • ($50 / ton CO2) (ton CO2/2,000 lbs)(20 lbs / 1 gallon) = (50*20) / 2000 = 50 cents a gallon.
  • okay.

So, the conversion is easy: every $10 / ton carbon dioxide = 10 cents / gallon of gasoline. 

This is nothing more than raising federal excise tax which hasn't been raised in years by 10 cents / gallon. Big deal. 

The federal excise tax on gasoline is 18.4 cents per gallon, was last raised October 1, 1983, and is not indexed to inflation. 

Feel free to fact-check the data points.

TSMC --> 2NM --> Hitting On All Cylnders -- April 22, 2022

I did not post the story or the SeekingAlpha story suggesting TSM was dead. LOL. Everybody saw that as a "crazy" article. 

So, now, after that crazy article, that "TSM was dead," here's the update. Link here.

Apple could adopt the 2nm process for its iPhone and Mac chips as early as 2025 as the company's main chip supplier, TSMC, has set in motion a plan to produce that process in the early parts of that year.

All of Apple's latest chips feature the 5nm process, including the A15 Bionic in the iPhone 13 series and the entire M1 Apple silicon line. TSMC will begin mass production of 3nm chips later this year with 2nm following in 2025 with Apple and Intel being among the first to use the newer technology.

TSMC has set a timetable to move its 2nm GAA process to production in 2025 while commercializing its 3nm FInFET process with improved yield rates in the second half of 2022, with Apple and Intel among the first clients to adopt both nodes, further consolidating its dominance in the advanced foundry sector, according to industry sources.

A report from last year claimed that the next iPad Pro, expected to be announced later this year, will feature a 3nm process. The current ‌iPad Pro‌ features the ‌M1‌ chip and the 2022 version is expected to include Apple's all-new "M2" chip. The 3nm process technology features performance improvements of up to 15% while being at least 25% less battery-hungry, according to TSMC.

As a reminder, INTC was having problems with 10nm chips and has now outsourced their work to TSMC. 

Just saying.

*************************************
TILD

Dominique You wiki entry

Why haven't I seen the movie?

***********************
Duolingo

Sophia and I love Duolingo.

We're taking Spanish together. I will never be fluent, but it is amazing how much I've learned in less than two years. Now, I can read the comments in YouTube. LOL.

MPC -- Buyback Heavy, Dividend Light -- Michael Fitzsimmons -- April 22, 2022

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Link here.

  • Marathon Petroleum, the largest refiner in the United States, will certainly be a beneficiary of the current macro environment.
  • The relatively low price of domestic natural gas is a competitive advantage as compared to foreign refiners - especially those in Europe.
  • Sanctions on Russian heavy crude will also likely lead to a boost in global diesel prices, another tailwind for MPC.
  • However, for the ordinary shareholder, MPC will be spending much more on share buybacks (at high prices) as compared to dividends directly into their pockets.
The merger of Marathon Petroleum and Endeavor in 2018 created the largest US refiner with facilities on the Gulf Coast, the Mid-Continent, and the West Coast. 
Such a broad and geographically diverse footprint enables MPC to optimize feedstock and export refined products to the global market. 
Given the relatively low cost of domestic natural gas as compared to much of the rest of the world (and especially Europe), those exports are at a competitive advantage. Meantime, sanctions on Russian oil exports are pushing up the price of diesel in many parts of the world - another tailwind for MPC. However, despite the relatively bullish macro-environment, it would appear that MPC will continue to greatly over-emphasize share buybacks, as compared to dividends directly into the pockets of its ordinary shareholders.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Inflation Watch -- April 22, 2022

Tracked here, of course.

April 22, 2022: Target --

  • out of eggs; a few cartons left, mostly those with a broken egg or two, but essentially out of eggs;
  • silver lining:
    • with smaller packages, increased prices, I'm eating less, losing more (weight)
    • since I bicycle whenever I grocery shop, I can now carry more items home, because each is smaller in size;

Three meals a day, now cut back to twice a day: breakfast (toast, peanut butter, and coffee) and lunch. But no more "formal" dinners. Will have a salad for dinner but that's it. Not sure how long this craziness will last, but .... whatever. 

Bakken DUCs Update -- At A Record Low? April 22, 2022

From a reader:


Bakken


Drilled

Completed

DUC

Dec-13

--

--

570

Jan-14

178

143

605

Feb-14

210

158

657

Mar-14

224

218

663

Apr-14

217

207

673

May-14

226

208

691

Jun-14

236

225

702

Jul-14

250

243

709

Aug-14

226

207

728

Sep-14

256

232

752

Oct-14

186

243

695

Nov-14

209

202

702

Dec-14

224

194

732

Jan-17

62

52

781

Feb-17

51

58

774

Mar-17

78

71

781

Apr-17

78

104

755

May-17

94

82

767

Jun-17

76

105

738

Jul-17

95

103

730

Aug-17

99

110

719

Sep-17

98

97

720

Oct-17

104

110

714

Nov-17

93

86

721

Dec-17

77

65

733

Jan-18

107

72

768

Feb-18

74

74

768

Mar-18

95

90

773

Apr-18

109

110

772

May-18

124

131

765

Jun-18

108

118

755

Jul-18

134

155

734

Aug-18

108

138

704

Sep-18

108

122

690

Oct-18

120

118

692

Nov-18

110

99

703

Dec-18

108

70

741

Jan-19

120

71

790

Feb-19

108

56

842

Mar-19

111

110

843

Apr-19

118

112

849

May-19

127

127

849

Jun-19

118

149

818

Jul-19

122

122

818

Aug-19

122

144

796

Sep-19

110

88

818

Oct-19

116

108

826

Nov-19

96

88

834

Dec-19

94

86

842

Jan-20

99

98

843

Feb-20

94

100

837

Mar-20

94

108

823

Apr-20

69

33

859

May-20

33

14

878

Jun-20

18

11

885

Jul-20

18

22

881

Aug-20

19

27

873

Sep-20

18

51

840

Oct-20

19

41

818

Nov-20

20

31

807

Dec-20

20

50

777

Jan-21

20

41

756

Feb-21

19

24

751

Mar-21

25

45

731

Apr-21

27

47

711

May-21

29

68

672

Jun-21

31

42

661

Jul-21

32

62

631

Aug-21

39

70

600

Sep-21

41

80

561

Oct-21

42

82

521

Nov-21

45

78

488

Dec-21

50

75

463

Jan-22

51

75

439

Feb-22

62

75

426

Mar-22

65

76

415